Granderson for Jackson looks good today, but it's still too early to give a final grade
by Kurt Mensching on May 3, 2010 6:00 AM EDT
in Detroit Tigers Links
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PrintLast week, I was asked by Casey Ford of Marquette's ESPN970 whether the offseason trade was a good trade or a great trade for the Tigers.
Looking at the stats for the players involved in the Winter Meetings deal, you could even add "one-sided" to the description of the deal.
The players deal by Detroit:
- Edwin Jackson -- 8.07 ERA, 1.76 WHIP, 1-3 record
- Curtis Granderson -- .225 batting average, .311 OBP, .375 slugging average, 2 home runs; disabled list
The players acquired by Detroit:
- Austin Jackson -- MLB-leading 40 hits, .367 average, .420 OBP, 5 SB
- Max Scherzer -- 4.23 ERA, 1-1 record
- Phil Coke -- 1.93 ERA, much-needed left-handed arm after Bobby Seay's injury
- Daniel Schlereth -- not even needed in Detroit yet. 1.46 ERA with 15 strikeouts in 12.1 innings in Triple A.
How can you grade something like that? A or A+? It has been excellent beyond any expectations. Some Yankees fans, on the other hand, are less thrilled. Others were more level-headed, of course. And that's the right position to take right now.
But before writing your grade in ink, it's important to check your calendar.
Mine says May 3.
That's not to say I don't view this trade as a success. So far it looks like the Tigers have gotten their fair share of young talent, a bit of salary relief to add a few pieces to the puzzle and the rare opportunity to keep winning games while having a transition year. The Tigers' scouts did a good job.
As Tigers fans, we have nothing to complain about.
Just be sure to keep a spoonful of perspective when thinking about it. I get the feeling some people out there would have been happy to swap the players one-on-one knowing what they do today. But asking "Granderson Who?" before 20 percent of the season has even been completed is a bit too much for me.
If you flipped Granderson's completely bad luck on balls in play (.267) with Jackson's unsustainable good luck (.500+), would you like this trade nearly as much?
Of course, many still would, and we heard from them throughout the offseason.
But give a little time for the hots and colds to even out before making too definitive of a statement. The season doesn't end the first weekend in May; a lot can change.
Other links:
- FS Detroit play-by-play announcer Mario Impemba is again doing good things for the troops. MLive's Patrick Hayes talked to him about it.
- MLB.com's Jason Beck wrote about the Tigers' making their first visit to Target Field.
- Twins pitching coach Rick Anderson talked to FS North about his team's bullpen leading it to success.
- AOLFanhouse's Matt Snyder says Joe Mauer's heel problems could send him to the disabled list. He'd join Pat Neshek, who just went on the DL too. Why did he go on the DL? He said his finger hurt when the Twins told him they wanted to option him to Triple-A Rochester, the Pioneer Press reports.
- By the way, does any newspaper cover a team better today than the Star Tribune? Just check out their web site. Incredible.
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"What are you gonna do?"
The 2nd time through the division, will be more telling on how good Jackson really is. I saw Heyward for Atlanta hit a truly massive HR during spring training. Then all the ESPN pundits crowned him ready for the HOF. He and his team have been in a slump lately. As Tony Soprano would say, “What are you gonna do?”
I still miss Placido Polanco.
But is he clutch?
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
Assist. Editor, Minor League Division, Bless You Boys
by David Tokarz on May 3, 2010 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Unless Ajax gets hit by a bus tomorrow
I will go right on loving this deal.
And yes, I will go right on loving it straight through his inevitable slump.
With those who don't give a damn about baseball, I can only sympathize. I do not resent them. I am even willing to concede that many of them are physically clean, good to their mothers and in favor of world peace. But while the game is on, I can't think of anything to say to them. ~ Art Hill
My perspective
Even allowing an Austin Jackson regression and a Curtis Granderson improvement, the reason to love this trade for the Tigers is the pitching not the bats. I’ll admit I like Edwin Jackson a lot but after the All-Star break he became erratic and pretty much fell apart. Scherzer, meanwhile, is a young power arm that looks like he could be part of a rotation for a long time. Coke helps solidify what has become the best bullpen in baseball to this point, and having Schlereth lurking in the minors should we need him is just gravy.
This
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
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by David Tokarz on May 3, 2010 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Coke and Scherzer are looking like good investments.
Schlereth in the wings helps too. I really am like the deal for the arms. Jackson being hot is whipped cream and a cherry.
Dontrelle Willis apologist.
Understanding that it's too early to do so
I went to bed not only thinking about the above topic but also whether or not DD had the best off-season of his Tiger’s career and of any GM in baseball. Of course it’s too early and I would dedicate more time to this post with stats etc. if I had the time but just think about this:
Payroll: Not only is the team’s 2010 payroll roughly the same as the 2009 payroll, DD has managed to make (and in some cases accept) significant changes without spending much of the 2011 money we have coming.
Trade: as a documented above, so far the trade has been a sweeping success. I was strongly opposed to the trade at the time and while there is no way to know how it’ll look by year’s end (or several years from now) I can at least say that I have seen the potential these kids possess which is why I think DD made the moves.
Free agents: We let guys go at the right time and the guys we have brought in have lived up to expectations. The only move I would question is Everett but we knew what we were getting there and if that’s the only thing you have to complain about then there really isn’t anything to complain about.
All in all I think DD, who gets his far share of grief, did an outstanding job this off-season making moves that may not have always made sense to a passioniate fanbase, but were clearly good baseball moves that are working incredibly well.
I can't believe I ate the whole thing!
by tigerfaninChicago on May 3, 2010 7:27 AM EDT reply actions
Well said.
That rug really tied the room together.
Also, it's not like Everett came with a high price tag.
So I don’t have much of a problem with him even though he can’t hit his way out of a wet paper bag.
1 million, right?
Cheap to hold to fort (with Ramon) until the Tigers can figure out what their long term SS solution is (hint: probably not Iorg).
Dontrelle Willis apologist.
Beat the Dlugach drum
Seriously. His production would be better than Everett’s for a lower price. And yes, I know this is a completely unsubstantiated claim, but I’m being too lazy to look up and provide specifics right now.
I love doogie but he needs to cut back on the K's this year
or else it’s just gonna be more of the same
Director of the 2010 Free Casper Wells campaign
No Run Support
Yes
But more of the same for a lower price tag and higher offensive upside (including power) is better.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
Assist. Editor, Minor League Division, Bless You Boys
can't win a division in April, but you can lose it
If we still had Granderson and Edwin — not AJax, Scherzer, and Coke — the Tigers wouldn’t be anywhere close to where they are right now. The deal hasn’t won the Tigers anything – since they’re not even in first place right now – but it helped prevent them from losing the division before we even got to May 3rd.
It’s been a roaring success so far and I think TigerfaninChicago says it nicely, too.
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i think we'll have sold high on Jackson and Granderson
Don’t know how the new Tigers will turn out, but I believe we traded Jackson and Granderson at the right time. From what I remember, I think Jackson has shown many flashes, but never could sustain it for an entire season. When he’s “on,” he’s a solid #2, but over his career, he’s probably more of a #4.
I think Granderson will never duplicate that 20/20/20/20 season he had a while back. Which number will be the hardest for him to get? The .302 batting average. If Granderson does make the most of his potential, I’m still guessing he’s better off in the 6-7-8-9 role, free swinging away.
So I think we traded a middle of the road pitcher and a bottom of the lineup guy for some pretty solid prospects. I liked it when it happened, I like it even more today, but even with some pull back, I know I’ll still like it.
I highly doubt he'd duplicate the 20x4 year
it’s only been done 4 times ever, and once was by a guy they called “Willie Mays.” Sounds like a hack.
that wasn't really the point
I wasn’t trying to that he’d need those exact figures to be a great player.
instead i was trying to say that granderson had an amazing 2007 season, but after more observation, he looks less like Mays and more like Brandon Inge.
I wouldn't say Inge
I’d say he’s Mike Cameron 2.0.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
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Mike Cameron is a very good comparison stat wise
If Mike Cameron was irrationally loved, it would be an exact clone.
Less like Mays, more like Hayes?
All Snipes-based jokes aside, I am incredibly glad that Joe Mauer might, according to the Star Tribune, sit the entire series against our Detroiters.
No comparison between Mays and Granderson...that's crazy
I liked Granderson’s personality, but here are the facts:
Granderson in 2009: 160 games played, 141 strikeouts, .249 batting average, 8 triples.
Definitely wasn't comparing Mays and Granderson
maybe in that one season, but not over a career. IMO, Mays is the best ever.
What a good season looks like . . .
Few players play steadily as one level all season long. Most players have hot streaks and cold streaks. Guys who have good seasons tend to have a lot of hot streaks mixed with periods of more mundane play; guys who have bad seasons similarly tend to have a lot of cold streaks. So, Jackson starting out leading mlb in hits is a hot streak; he’s probably not going to produce at that rate all year—probably no one is going to produce at that rate all year. Nevertheless, by starting out like this, he’s well on his way to having a great year. Similarly, Granderson’s slow start is a cold streak—he’ll be more productive than this over the course of a year—but nevertheless, he’s well on his way to having a mediocre or even bad year.
And, we already knew this about Granderson—he’s been having cold streaks like this with some regularity over the last several years. That’s why we traded him.
Granderson is a notoriously slow starter
he’s been like that almost every year, then heats up as it gets warmer.
Granderson's career month-by-month numbers
Month – AVG/OBP/SLG (OPS)
M/A – .258/.342/.503 (.844)
May – .270/.338/.474 (.812)
Jun – .308/.371/.513 (.884)
Jul – .301/.373/.493 (.866)
Aug – .239/.324/.429 (.753)
S/O – .255/.319/.477 (.797)
Slow starter, eh? More like, runs out of gas.
If we're looking at a time frame up til now...
than of course we have the better end of this trade. But having a month of great play from our players and month of bad play from theirs is basically like winning a single game. It’s great and you can relish it for a bit but there is more than one game to play and there is most certainly more than one month to a season.
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i disagree with the "too early to tell"
it’s true that it could turn out well or it could turn out poorly. but i like to think of it like poker – an all-in decision that’s made before all the cards come out. one player is going to be ahead, but that player may or may not win as more cards come out.
as i wrote above, i think the tigers sold high and had the “better hand” from the beginning. Granderson was a bad leadoff hitter and we didn’t have a spot for another 6-7-8-9 hitter. Plus, he was going to be expensive with his escalating contract, and I think the trends suggested he would become harder to trade even without money considerations. I’d rather take a chance on a top prospect than hang on to Granderson.
For EJax, I’ll use a gross generalization. I think there are two kinds of pitchers – the usually dependable, and everyone else. I think Verlander and Porcello are fairly dependable – I hope Kid Rick rediscovers his groove. Bonderman and Willis, for all their wonder this year, are pretty much just guys we throw out there and hope we win some. I don’t know where Scherzer fits just yet.
So really I think we gave up some pieces that were at their highest value, and got some new pieces. Happy to take that chance no matter how it turns out.
For a quick comparison, I was in favor of the Billups / AI trade at the time, even though it didn’t work out at all. I don’t think the Pistons were going to win a championship with Billups, and AI gave them instant scoring, which the Pistons never had. I think if everything went right, the Pistons would have made a better run with AI, but, it didn’t go right, so you move on to the next “hand.” Unfortunately, Joe D decided to bet the house on Gordon and Chuck V, which I think everyone knew was a disaster from the get-go.
by redwingxviii on May 3, 2010 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions
How about this perspective
For the first month, I’ll give the trade an A (would be an A+ if Scherzer didn’t get housed by the Twins last time out). We can revisit each month going forward and tally up the grades at the end. We won’t be able to make a “final” judgement for a number of years, but in the interest of discussion topics, a month-by-month look would be fun.
It's too early...
but what if this is what Jackson is!
"When I played pro football, I never set out to hurt anyone deliberately - unless it was, you know, important, like a league game or something." ~ Dick Butkus
by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on May 3, 2010 12:56 PM EDT reply actions
He can't sustain his pace.
I think he’ll do okay and his defense is a breath of fresh air in center.
Dontrelle Willis apologist.
His BABIP is .527
The next highest BABIP in all of baseball right now is .429 (David Freese). He’s going to come back to Earth at some point.
The Tigers are 17 - 10 Going Into Minn
We will know a bit more by the end of this week as to how good the team may be for 2010..
To me it is always the bottom line.
Is the team winning or not?
Right now they are winning at higher rate than most expected and well enough to win to win 100 games? at the current pace. They still are +2 on total road games.
I am more than satisfied so far.
No reason to nitpick the individual pieces in my mind.
Just saying
Nitpicking is what we do.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
Assist. Editor, Minor League Division, Bless You Boys
Yes I Know
Its all in fun.
If I paid more attention to the details I would nitpick too.
Keep up the good work
Although
I like Jackson very much and he’s done excellent thus far but I think its still a tad to early to be making a final decision about his performance. I have very high hopes for him, so much so that i am going to invest my money and get majestic T with his name and # on it.
Welcome to Detroit, NO sissies allowed
Good investment
If only for the fact that he’s under club control for 6 years :)
Really, though, he should be able to hold his own even with the inevitable regression. The magic 8 ball says he’ll finish with a triple-slash of .280/.350/.410
I'm gonna agree with you on the numbers...
Jackson seems to understand his speed and if he has any idea as to how to bunt that he should have no trouble keeping a semi-respectable batting average. Even if he can’t make that stat line his defense really wants me to keep him up here anyways.
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I see a little worse than that
I’d say .270/.330/.400 would be his slash line if he continues improving at the plate.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
Assist. Editor, Minor League Division, Bless You Boys
I agree with you in general
but there’s already a month of production in the books. I’d say he triple slashes what you said for the next 5 months, but his apeshit April will make his final line resemble mine.
by ChrisDTX on May 3, 2010 3:52 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Sick of hearing "too early too judge"
Especially when it comes to Austin Jackson. He’s got 109 at bats, 2nd most in baseball, leads both leagues in hits and has the second highest batting average in baseball. Not to mention spring training when he hit .356 in 73 at bats.
Look at the hits and batting average leaders in the AL. Besides Austin Jackson and Brett Gardner for the NYY, there aren’t any players who aren’t normally in the top 20. Gardner is hitting .340, but only has 70 at bats. Guys like Cano, Morneau, Longoria, Mauer, Cabrera, Ichiro, Guerrero, etc all make up the top 20 as expected. You don’t see any bums in the top 20 this far into the season because of an unusually good “hot streak.”
After 100 at bats it’s no longer a “hot streak,” it’s “being a great hitter,” which is why the league leaders in BA & hits after the first month consist of great hitters (veteran and rookie) and not Adam Everett type players on 26 game hot streaks. I expect to see Jackson and possibly Gardner, fairly new to the league himself, among the league leaders all season long. IF Jackson were just on a really long hot streak, you’d be more likely to see it in July or August because that’s when the rookies tend to get hot. They don’t usually do it from DAY ONE.
Now I don’t expect Robinson Cano to finish the season with a .387 average, but I do expect him to finish with a .330 average like last year, because he is a great hitter. I don’t expect Jackson to continue to hit .367, but I do expect him to finish above .302, which was Granderson’s highest average in his best season, and therefore definitely an improvement considering Jackson is only a rookie. .250 hitters don’t hit .370 for over a month straight. (2 months if you count preseason) .300+ hitters do, which Jackson will prove to be.
I believe you CAN give the final grade on the trade based on these reasons:
-Granderson hit .249 ALL of last year
-Jackson seems to be getting BETTER, not cooling off, the more games the Tigers play… 9 hits in the past 3 games AFTER he was already leading the league in hits.
-Granderson can’t change his “completely bad luck” while sitting on the DL.
-Granderson is 29 years old, Jackson is a rookie.
-Jackson is a true lead off hitter
-Granderson is a top defender at his position, Jackson looks just as good, if not better at the same position.
-Throw the stats out the window and actually watch Jackson play. His approach at the plate is just plain better than Granderson’s.
-Jackson is still learning. He started off the season striking out WAY too much, but made the necessary adjustments and only has 2 strikeouts in his past 25+ at bats.
Granderson also strikes out too much, but Jackson hits .367 and leads the league in both strikeouts AND hits.
-The Tigers got Phil Coke out of the deal.
Look, you could have made a final grade BEFORE the season even started in terms of the trade itself. The Tigers completely robbed NY and Arizona. Granderson and Edwin Jackson were 2 of the worst Tiger players over the final 2 months of last season. The team blew the division championship in almost historic fashion and drastic changes needed to be made. DD was able to sell high on 2 players who were clearly overvalued by other teams. It’s almost as if the Yankees didn’t even watch Granderson play last season and wanted him based on his name alone and what he did 3 years ago. I guess Arizona didn’t notice how terrible Edwin Jackson was the final 2 months of the season and just saw his overall, overachieving numbers. Jackson has a 4.82 career ERA and it’s no fluke that he’s given up 22 hits and 18 runs over his past 6 innings.
The Tigers got 4 up and coming players in exchange for a never-was pitcher and a great player who might be passed his prime. Even if Austin Jackson wasn’t putting up these kinds of numbers, the Tigers still made a great deal. Max Sherzer was the top pitching prospect in all of baseball 3 years ago and Arizona’s #1 draft pick. Why trade him after only 1 full season in the Majors? A season in which he had 174 K’s. Schlereth is another young arm who’s pitched great in the minor’s… AND he’s a lefty who can relieve and start games. Why trade him away when he’s only pitched 17 innings in the Majors? The Tigers also get Coke. The Yankees including him in the deal was the dumbest move of all. He was the best (and basically ONLY) lefty in a bullpen on the team that won the World Series. Who are the Yankees left-handed relievers now? Boone Logan and Damaso Marte….
by Dasharpe on May 3, 2010 3:36 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Right,
and that’s why Chris Shelton is currently a perennial all star and MVP candidate. Look, whether you want to believe it or not, it is too soon to tell how good Jackson is or will be. He projects to be a decent player, but to call him a great hitter is ridiculous and akin to calling Chris Shelton a great hitter after his tear in April a few years back. I also have a hard time believing that DD fleeced Brian Cashman; Jackson simply isn’t a superstar yet and Granderson isn’t a mediocre player.
Agree we can't crown Jackson a superstar
but in my opinion, I think we can say that Granderson is not a superstar. He’s an average power hitter. He has some good qualities at the plate (above average power, plus speed) and some bad qualities (below average BA / pretty terrible situational hitter).
Defensively, there were some moments late last year that made me wonder if he was a great CF or not.
So as much as I like him, I agree with the Mike Cameron 2.0 argument. Is Mike Cameron mediocre or something else?
Just my thought.
Curtis Granderson is an above average power hitter.
He always has been. Power doesn’t mean 45 homers a year. He racked up a ton of extra bases and last year hit a lot of home runs.
I look at Isolated Power (slugging % minus batting average) for my power gauge:
League average, Curtis Granderson’s Iso
2006: .163, .178
2007: .155, .250
2008: .152, .213
2009: .155, .204
2010: .151, .150
Consistently above-average in the power department.
As far as his defense, I’d say it’s average or slightly above-average. I don’t think he’s elite out there, but he’s also not costing his team runs defensively. Mike Cameron is not a good comp because Mike Cameron has consistently been one of the 3 or 5 best defensive centerfielders since he came into the majors. So, while Cameron’s bat is below average, his defense more than makes up for it.
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interesting ISO power stat
I’m sorta going on gut here, so I enjoy where your arguments come from. I agree that Curtis gets a ton of Total Bases, more than your average player. I wonder where his Iso power numbers rank, btw.
But I don’t want to dismiss Curtis’ flaws either. I get it, some power hitters won’t have great averages. Not everyone can be Pujols. But Curtis was also terrible in sacrifice situations. That’s gotta count for something right?
Also, I just glanced at it, but here’s some Mike Cameron vs Curtis stats:
Mike Cameron 162 game average: .250/.340/.447 (23 home runs)
Curtis Grndson 162 game average: .271/.343/.480 (24 home runs)
Let me look up CFer's ranked by Iso over the last 3 years (as far back as Fangraphs goes).
You have to click twice on the ISO column to get the leaderboard, but Curtis has the highest Isolated Power of any CFer in baseball over the last 3 years at .218.
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Not a superstar but better than Granderson
I don’t want an average power hitter out of my lead off hitter. I’d rather have a guy that bats above .300 and hits 5 HR’s over a guy that bats .249 and 30 HR’s…in the leadoff spot.
Except we don't know how Jackson is going to be throughout the whole season.
We don’t know if Austin is going to bat above .300 or how many home runs he is going to hit. Austin Jackson is still an unknown quantity.
Dontrelle Willis apologist.
So
if Jackson finishes the season with a .350 average people will say -hold on it’s just one season, he’s still an unknown. Lets wait for him to do it again. I don’t really care if the guy has played 26 games or 2600 games. I’ve seen all of his at bats in those 26 games. He’s a good hitter. Unless he becomes a different person, that wont change. I saw a good number of Granderson at bats. I never thought of him as a good hitter, especially for BA. and that was before we traded him.
I will say yes, we need to hold on.
1 seasons worth of data in terms of batting average and/or batting average on balls in play doesn’t stabilize at all. It’s why players can have such fluctuating BA’s from year to year. See: Magglio Ordonez’s .360+ mark in 2006.
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that's fine
if AJax is as successful as Magglio OVERALL, I’d say he is pretty good. Everybody’s BA fluctuates. I never said AJax’s wouldn’t . I’m just saying the guy is a .300 hitter….Is that so implausible?
Career .288 minor league hitter.
.292 in Double-A and Triple-A. It’s plausible, but I will take the under on the season and in his career, to be honest.
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ok
but how often does a hitter bat .370 in any 26 game stretch and NOT finish at .300+ ? It’s not like AJax hit .370 in 26 random games in August. He’s been hot from the get go and only seems to be getting better.
Random 26 games in any point of the season = 26 games to start the year.
26 games is 26 games.
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not really
There’s more pressure at the start of the season as a rookie
Depends on the situation.
He wasn’t going to Triple-A because they clearly aren’t high enough on anyone else to man CF.
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ha...
your comparing Chris Shelton to Austin Jackson. Chris Shelton was not an everyday player and he was never intended to be an everyday player. He only played in 100 games the season he tore it up for 3 weeks in April. THAT was a fluke and nobody expected him to even come close to those numbers EVER again. Jackson is an everyday lead off hitter who will probably play 150 games. He’s been hitting great from day 1 of spring training. I never said Jackson will finish with a .370 BA. I’m just saying he IS a great hitter. All you have to do is actually WATCH him play. He’ll finish the season with a .300+ BA and that is pretty good for a rookie.
Wrong
Shelton was the everyday starting 1B that year, at least to start the year. He was intended to be. Just because he didn’t have the hype that Jackson has had coming up this year. All I was really getting at was that, as you so aptly argued, Shelton is not a great hitter, but you wouldn’t have known it after his first 100 ABs that year; so it is the same with Jackson this year.
Wow
So I didn’t finish a statement there.
Just because he didn’t have the hype that Jackson has had coming up this year does not make the comparison any less legit. The point is still that you are making ridiculous conclusive statements off of 100 PA in a rookie year. I do take offense the belief that I have not watched him play and that you can tell everything from simply watching someone play. That’s just ignorant.
NO
Chris Shelton is a RIDICULOUS comparison. Chris Shelton…..i wasn’t even going to reply to that. What’s the complete opposite of hype? Because that’s what Shelton had.
Take away the names and the hype
and Chris Shelton had a ridiculous April, much like Ajax had a ridiculous April. I don’t think Ajax will come crashing down like Shelton did, but the comparison is legitimate.
Exactly
The point is not to compare the overall talent levels or career paths of the players. The point, as rob stated, is to look at a single month’s data for any player. I used Shelton because as a “prospect” or whatever you would call him, he had a ridiculous April in which he hit a record number of homeruns. Was it sustainable? No. Did we conclusively know that he would come crashing back to earth? Not necessarily, but we had a decent idea that it would happen. Just because a player has more hype does not mean that you can consider his 100 PA as a solid sample, particularly when you are discounting the same number of PA from another player.
um, your wrong
Carlos Pena, an actual good baseball player was supposed to start the season at 1B but was injured. When he came back from injury, HE took the job back, which is why Shelton only played 100 games. Not to mention we had Dimitri Young who played 1B & DH. Chris Shelton wouldn’t have even made the team if Pena wasn’t injured, since you don’t need 3 first baseman. If you watched Shelton and you watch Austin Jackson and you actually know anything about baseball you can see which one is a great hitter after 100 AB’s and which is not.
The reason does not matter.
Once again, taking the context as to why a player is on the team does not make an argument any more valid. The only thing that matters is the number of plate appearances. I was not using this as some sort of favorability rating argument. I could personally care less which player was more popular and beloved by the organization or media going into the season or why they were liked/disliked. The only thing that matters is that both players started off the season at unrealistic levels, and while Jackson is a good player most likely, it is hard to definitively conclude that he will put up such lofty numbers over the entire season. His BABIP and line drive % both signify that he is punching above his weight right now. That’s not a knock on him as a player, but an analysis that he will most likely face some tougher times as the season rolls along.
I obviously know NOTHING about baseball, as you have now stated numerous times.
Now that I re-read the comment
Pena took the job back because Shelton started hitting like ass after his apeshit April (thanks for the new adjective Chris).
by handsomerob1 on May 3, 2010 11:30 PM EDT up reply actions
fleeced Cashman
because we also got Coke in the deal. He gave up, AJax, Coke AND Ian Kennedy and only got Granderson in return. How’s that working out?
Coke is a reliever
who, while being a fairly effective pitcher, is still a reliever and thus, not entirely all that valuable. The real steal of the whole deal is that we got Scherzer to replace Jackson in the rotation.
Your question is the very question that Kurt asked and concluded as being too soon to determine. I agree, and you do not agree; that much has already been established. Besides Coke’s ERA and Jackson’s AVG, what has led you to believe that there is nothing that can change your mind about the deal and approach the whole thing with some caution/realism??
you know what it is? cherry picking
Players peak. Declare victory.
It would be the same as if Scherzer and Jackson stumbled out the gate and someone declared the trade a disaster despite all the years remaining on their contract. Everyone would yell “TOO EARLY!”
It’s like they want to lock in the success by declaring a big win right now.
by Kurt Mensching on May 4, 2010 6:57 AM EDT up reply actions
I appreciate your enthusiasm
but maybe you’d like to consider his 2500 minor league PA’s in your argument? That’s not nothing. He was a .288/.356/.410 hitter in a much larger sample (against weaker competition)
by ChrisDTX on May 3, 2010 3:59 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Let’s also consider that he can improve upon his minor league stats – especially since he never spent more than 1 full season at a given level (moving up and facing tougher pitching each year) and that .288 was hurt by his first full season as a professional when he hit .260.
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to which I'll add...
IF Austin Jackson is a career .288 hitter in the bigs, I’d be satisfied and like the trade just as much as I did when it first happened.
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"After 100 at bats it’s no longer a 'hot streak,' it’s 'being a great hitter'"
No, that’s exactly what it is. He is on an unsustainable hot streak right now, because every time he puts the bat on the ball, it’s going for a hit. A .527 BABIP is ludicrous. He’s NOT maintaining that.
And to flip your argument around on you, are Mark Teixeira (.189 BA), Chone Figgins (.209 BA), Derrick Lee (.221 BA), Aramis Ramirez (.155 BA) or Justin Upton (.224 BA) terrible hitters? Of course they aren’t. They all have over 100 ABs, though. But you wouldn’t make any knee-jerk reactions on those guys. They’re on a cold streak. You can’t make definitive judgements on a player based on just 100 at-bats.
The fact of the matter is, we still don’t have a grasp on the kind of player Austin Jackson is going to be, because he has been in Major League Baseball for exactly one month. He’s been great so far, but to overlook the obvious signs of regression (crazy high BABIP, AL-leading 34 strikeouts) is foolish.
Exactly
Those players like Texiera , Lee, etc will go on hot streaks because they are good hitters. Good hitters go on long hot streaks that make up for their cold streaks. I don’t see Jackson doing this well for over a month and then going so cold he finishes below .300. Bad hitters don’t have long hot streaks. Did Everett ever hit .370 in ANY stretch of 26 games? No. A hot streak for a bad hitter is .300 in a month at best.
Absurd statement
Batting average is such a fungible and largely luck-driven statistic that you shouldn’t even bother using it to make an argument. Guys have entire seasons where their BA is out of whack with their ability, let alone a 100 AB sample. Granderson hit .302, after all. Inge hit .287 one season. Freddy Sanchez hit .344 to win a batting title (.299 career hitter). Bill Meuller won a batting title in his one and only .300 season. So it’s safe to say BA can fluctuate quite a bit year-to-year, without even considering some of the more ridiculous month-to-month fluctuations.
by ChrisDTX on May 3, 2010 4:40 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I'm not suggesting that Jackson is a BAD hitter.
Just that he is not yet a “great hitter” as you suggested. Mediocre hitters can have great months if they get hot and have a little bit of luck (and saying that somebody with a BABIP over .500 is having “a little bit of luck” is an understatement to say the least). Let me know in September if David Freese (.355 AVG, .429 BABIP) and Ryan Theriot (.355 AVG, .415 BABIP) are still battling it out for the NL batting title.
Freese is a rookie too
I guess nobody told Albert Pujols (rookie BA .329) and A Rod (rookie BA .358) that they couldn’t compete for batting titles as rookies….better tell Jackson and Freese that rookies can’t win batting titles.
Please.
Don’t act like Freese and Jackson are regarded by anyone as being in the same class as Pujols and Rodriguez. Freese hit just over .300 in two years at AAA and his BABIP is second only to Jackson. Both rookies have been phenomenally lucky. Those numbers won’t continue over an entire season.
ok
sorry Nostradamus, I didn’t know you can predict the future.
No matter how many snarky comments you retort with...
You can’t deny that they both have BABIP that are way too high. Those numbers, Jackson’s especially, are indisputable.
and you can't deny
that Jackson leads the league in strikeouts. Forget about the BABIP…the guy’s batting .like 500 when he doesn’t strike out!
It's a problem that he's striking out this much...
Not a quality. He’s has been striking out too much for as long as he’s been in professional baseball, so I don’t know why you seem to think that’s suddenly going to stop. What he hasn’t been doing his entire career is getting so lucky when he puts the ball in play.
Maybe
you haven’t noticed that he’s only getting better as the season goes on and that he’s been working on the strikeouts. Only 2 strikeouts in the last 25+ at bats. Maybe you also didn’t notice that his average was only at .300 just NINE games ago and that it jumped to .368 when he stopped striking out, not because of the BABIP that was already high. He hasn’t even been that hot the whole month, just the past nine games. That’s what typical .300 hitters do.
Shelton....
I’m so sick of hearing about Chris Shelton all the time. Is that the only example anybody can come up with from the past 30 years of Tiger baseball? BTW Chris Shelton got worse as the month went on. He didn’t bat .300 for 20 games and then raise his average to .370 like Jackson did.
Exactly the point
the BiP part = balls in play. Strikeouts are not balls in play. It is quite simply impossible to get a hit over 50% of the time you make contact for more than a handful of AB’s. Ted Williams or Ty Cobb couldn’t do that.
by ChrisDTX on May 3, 2010 6:19 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
yes exactly the point
over the past 25+ at bats he’s only struck out twice and in that time his average has gone from .300 to .370. The less you strike out, the MORE balls you put into play. His BABIP can go way down without his average going way down. The BABIP has actually gone down while his average has been going up, because he’s strike out far less.
Define "Cold"
For arguments sake, say he’s hitting 360 now instead of .367, because it works out for nice round numbers.
If he hits .288, the rest of the way his career minor league average, over the next 500 at bats, he ends up with a batting average of exactly .300
(The math: 36/100 +144/500 = 180/600 or .300)
After last year, we’d take a .288 hitter at the lead off position, and we wouldn’t consider that particularly cold, or dropping off the edge of the earth. Jackson finishing with a BA of less than .300 even after the torrid first month isn’t implausible, and wouldn’t really be that big a failure on his part, either.
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Hot Streak??
Most players don’t lead the league in STRIKEOUTS during a hot streak. If Jackson were on an actual hot streak, he wouldn’t have THE MOST STRIKEOUTS in baseball.
i'm just messing with you here
we still have a hot streak to look forward to? I’m really gonna love AJax.
What would you call this month then?
Is Jackson going to be a career .370 hitter? .360? .350? I wouldn’t bet a dime on that happening. A .370 month would be a hot streak for Albert Pujols, much less a rookie who batted .288 in the minors and has a completely unsustainable BABIP.
And as far as the strikeouts go, here’s one example off the top of my head: Ryan Howard — 2006 NL MVP, BA was above .310, OBP was above .420, 188 strikeouts (second most in baseball).
good example
Nice to see you put Jackson in the same class as Ryan Howard. Now name a BAD hitter who had the most strikeouts AND a high BA.
Putting Jackson in the same class as Howard
is a joke, even if you discount the fact that their games are polar opposites.
Not a career .370 hitter
but he’ll bat .300+ this season. That’s not really a huge stretch of the imagination, if you’ve actually watched him play. I didn’t get to see much of him in the minors, but I’ve been watching him over the past 2 months in the Majors where it ACTUALLY COUNTS for something….he’s pretty good. Won’t need to sustain the high BABIP if he stops leading the league in strikeouts. Not saying he’s the best baseball player ever here, people. Just saying he’s very good.
So if he bats .300 for the season...
His .370 month doesn’t qualify as being a “hot streak?” I’m afraid I don’t follow your logic there.
And as far as a bad hitter who has had the most strikeouts and a high BA? I don’t need to show that over a whole season, just over a month (as Jackson has done)…
Chris Shelton, April 2006 — .326 with 27 strikeouts. Shelton is a bad hitter who got hot for one month.
Again, I’m not suggesting that Jackson is a bad hitter, or that he’s the next Chris Shelton. But he’s not a great hitter, either. His career so far in the minor leagues has shown us that he isn’t as good as he has been so far. You’re placing too much emphasis on just one month.
that's my whole point!
Great hitters have .370 month hot streaks. That’s what career .300 hitters do. I don’t think this will be Jackson’s LAST hot streak….it’s not a freak month, like Shelton’s. It’s the sign of a good hitter. Gee, what a coincidence that Jackson hit .360 in spring training and .370 in his first 26 games as a major league player. I’m sure he’ll NEVER do that again…. Also we already knew Shelton sucked before that freakish 3 weeks, and he couldn’t even keep it up the whole month.
if you really think minor league stats matter
then you probably noticed that Jackson always seemed to hit better the HIGHER he rose up through the ranks….meaning he’s always hit better against better competition. No big surprise he’s playing his best in the Major League.
Minor league stats DO matter.
What DOESN’T matter are spring training stats. Feel free to leave those out. There are far too many examples of those being wildly inaccurate to even bother with them.
But it’s true, Jackson has made marginal improvements as he has gone up through the minor leagues, but those are probably signs of him maturing as a hitter rather than raising his play to the level of competition. But he’s never had this kind of leap before, which makes me (and just about everybody else on this board) believe that he is going to be coming back to Earth at some point.
Anyway, I’m not going to keep going over the same points with you (you know where I stand on this, and vice verse), so I guess the main thing I’m trying to say to you is this:
Sllloooooooowww dooooowwwn. Slow down on Jackson. He’s only one month into his MLB career. It’s not time to anoint him a “great hitter.” He’s done some things very well. He still has to work on some other things. It’s way, way, way too early in his career to be making any kind of definitive statements on the kind of player he will be for the rest of his life. We’ve only seen a few games of him. Sit back and let him develop for a few more years before making such bold proclamations.
He will come back down to earth
except where will that be exactly? I say he’s a .300 hitter. Is that really a bold proclamation? Not really, lots of players hit .300. I think I can safely say Ajax is a great hitter. Most major league batters are great hitters. You’ve got to be great if you want to be a starting lead off hitter in the majors. If you aren’t a great hitter you don’t belong batting in the majors, unless you play GREAT defense. I didn’t say he was Ty Cobb. I just said he was great. If he wasn’t great he’d be working at Mcdonalds not playing pro baseball.
if you want to say
that finishing he season batting .315 is “coming back down to earth” well we’ve completely agreed all along. If you think he’ll finish below .300 then you must not enjoy watching baseball very much…always waiting for things to go wrong and expecting the worst…must not be very enjoyable. I know he won’t hit .370 every month, but you’ve got to be a real jerk if you think he’s going to tumble all the way down to .249 (Granderson).
I think coming back to Earth means .280 by the end of the year.
Or thereabouts. Based on his minor league numbers I think that the final numbers that ChrisDTX predicted earlier in this thread (.280/.350/.410) are more likely than .315. He strikes out too much. It has to catch up with him when he stops getting hits every time the ball is put in play and his BABIP falls.
Secondly, yes, Austin Jackson is a great hitter in relation to the entire population of the world. He is not a great hitter in relation to the other people who do what he does for a living, and that is who we are judging him by. It is too soon for such titles, but let’s be honest, you knew what I meant when I first said it.
Finally, even though I think that Austin Jackson will finish below a .300 BA, I still have managed to enjoy watching baseball this year. I will probably even make it out to the ballpark on a few occasions. But that isn’t the first irrational conclusion that you’ve jumped to, so I can see how you might think otherwise.
Well, enjoy the slump I guess
I guess then there’s a pretty bad cold streak coming for Ajax in your opinion. I just happen to think the kid has got the stuff to weather through it and still finish above .300
If you’ve got any other reasons besides minor league numbers and BABIP, I’m all ears. I don’t like the BABIP argument because I’ve seen the hits and it isn’t luck. He hits the ball hard and to where fielders aren’t. No Ramon Santiago bloop singles here. You should get a hit 50% of the time you hit the ball hard if not more. He’d probably fly out more if he were swinging for the fences, but he doesn’t. He’s TRYING to hit the ball where the fielders aren’t. 13 multi hit games out of 26 isn’t exactly luck.
And if you want to judge him based on relation to Curtis Granderson the person he replaced, than yes, he’s a great hitter and a smarter hitter with a better approach to hitting. It is night and day. The Tigers are an improved team because of Jackson replacing Granderson and I haven’t seen any legit reason to believe both Ajax and the Tigers won’t have continued success.
Chris Shelton's minor league BA's:
2001: .305
2002: .340
2003: .359 (plus .279 at AA)
2004: .339
2005: .331
I think there was every reason to believe he’d be capable in Spring 2006.
by ChrisDTX on May 3, 2010 6:25 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Great stats
I guess that’s why Chris Shelton is an All-star every year, because of the importance of MINOR league stats.
Not really a bold prediction to have thought Chris Shelton would not have a great career, considering he’s CHRIS SHELTON…and he didn’t.
Dude, you JUST said
“we already knew Shelton sucked”. That’s easy to say when you know how the story ends. At the time, there was reason to believe he was for real based on the numbers above. There is NO reason to believe Jackson is going to hit .350 for more than the next week.
by ChrisDTX on May 3, 2010 6:54 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Didn't need to know how the story ends
I always thought he sucked, before during and after his freak April. I never said Jackson will hit .350 all season. I just said i thought he was a great hitter and that he’ll finish above .300, Not a bold statement.
Why did you think that?
Just because you felt it? Or did you have something else that led you to believe it, contradicting his minor league stats?
Wow,
I can’t wait for his hot streak when he hits .500 for a whole month. That will really be something to watch (if only I could, as I don’t live near Detroit and can’t get any non-nationally televised games). I’m gonna love watching this career .400 hitter that is known as Avila (Ajax). After all, he is getting better as he goes.
by 77bestrookieclassever on May 4, 2010 7:13 AM EDT up reply actions
i know the arguments coming your way
but i’m on the same train you are.
the only small thing i’ll say is that i’m anxious to see how the Twins and Indians pitch AJax this week. I’m not going to overreact to an 0 for 24 week or a 15 for 24 week either way, but I do believe this kid has a chance to be a pretty good player, and it will be interesting to see how he does facing teams for the second time.
but yes, AJax is good and at this point, I think he has more potential than Curtis Granderson (especially as a leadoff hitter)
Well...
he did OK facing the Angels a second time :)
by ChrisDTX on May 3, 2010 4:17 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
i hate when i forget the reply button
was trying to tell the one guy that i love AJax too. i knew the shelton arguments, among others, were coming, and those are perfectly valid, but i’m getting excited about Ajax anyway.
Yeah
My only points were basically that I think that Ajax is and will be a pretty damn good, if not great hitter, he’s a much better lead off hitter than Granderson, and that I don’t think you can just call it a hot streak when you hit that well from day 1 of spring training your rookie season.
i think you're sorta nuts but i like you
i like talking about AJax the .300 hitter better than about the BABIP correction.
it is 100% subject to change because their careers aren’t over, but i’m with you on AJax being better than Granderson when talking about leadoff hitters.
I think I earn the same “nuts” label as you when I say this, but I think Ajax will be a better player than Granderson overall, and I say that more because I don’t believe in Granderson going forward.
Yankees weren't leading him off
He was batting like 6th or 7th before he got injured. I liked Granderson, because he was a Tiger. He was good at getting extra base hits and great in CF. He was no superstar though and had 1 or 2 all star seasons. I think the Yankees were buying into hype. He was just too awful last year for me to be upset about the trade. Maybe I am nuts but Ajax looks like the real deal. I thought so before the season and he’s only getting better. Maybe he will be average at best, anything can happen. But if you just watch him play I think people will see for themselves that this guy is as advertised. People like Reggie Jackson and Yankee scouts had been saying it all along, don’t read into the stats, just watch him play.
hey man i'm totally with ya
granderson killed us last year. guy had some great years in detroit though, seemed like a great guy off the field. lots of good. i don’t think he’s a consistent championship leadoff hitter by any stretch though.
you are probably the only one
that agrees with me. I guess people are still sour about the trade and can’t embrace Jackson. I liked Granderson alot, but I like making the team better even more. The trade made the Tigers better. Not just because of Jackson, but Coke too. Sherzer and Schlereth for Edwin Jax was highway robbery. I think people will learn to love Ajax too because they will see what a lead off hitter should be.
It's not about embracing Jackson
it’s being realistic. You’re over-estimating the shit out of Austin Jackson’s potential, comparing him with Ryan Howard, Albert Pujols, and Alex Rodriguez. Jackson is good, but he’s never going to be as good as any of those three. Do I hope I’m wrong? Sure, as long as he’s still a Tiger. But I think you’re being ridiculous, unless Ajax’s mom has hacked your account. Then by all means, cheer for your baby Mrs. Jackson.
why not
why can’t he ever be as good as those three? Do you have a time machine?
Do you REALLY think
Ajax will be as good as Albert Pujols? Let’s be real here. Guys like that are spotted from miles away. Jason Heyward, a guy that made the Braves roster at age 20, has that kind of talent. Jackson, while very talented himself, is not in that league. Due to the fact that steroids are now illegal, he probably never will be.
by handsomerob1 on May 3, 2010 11:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Austin Jackson is good...
and he is good because he has plus speed. It makes him good defensively and turns choppers into base hits. But speed regresses and even if Austin Jackson develops some sort of power stroke with the bat, power like speed regresses over time.
If you want to compare Austin to a great player, maybe Ichiro is a better example because Ichiro has a made an amazing career running out base hits and catching up to fly balls no one else could. But even with that said it is absolutely insane to compare an all time great to an above average prospect in his first month of baseball.
Can Austin Jackson be that good? No one is stopping him. But if you are trying to convince people that it is likely that Austin will become an all time great off of some minor league stats and a month of actual major league stats than think again. Even if Austin Jackson maintains this sort of production through the entire season I will not compare him to any sort of great player until he has enough seasons under his belt to at least call MLB a career.
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Comparing Minor League Numbers
Granderson hit .303 in AA and .290 in AAA
Ajax hit .285 in AA and .300 in AAA
Ajax was 2 years younger in AAA than Grandy
Ajax struck out 123 times in AAA and Grandy 129
The most noticable difference between them in AA and AAA was the power which Grandy showed a lot more of.
In their first full major league seasons in April Ajax hit .364 with 1 HR and 32 K and Grandy .269 with 4 HRs and 26 Ks.
So other than a significantly higher batting average in their first April in the Majors and Grandys higher power numbers Ajax and Grandy continue to track pretty closely on the offensive end.
I can’t comment that much about the comparison on the defensive end, except that Ajax seems to get a very good jump on the ball in center field at least as good as Grandy does or close to it.
So on a simplistic level
Great trade or Greatest trade?
It’s time to choose sides.
AJax's BABIP trend
Since July 2008, 6 of 9 months he’s had .400+ BABIP’s .
Make your own conclusions.
2008
April – .330
May. – .333
June- .277
July – .400
Aug.- .439
Sept- .Did Not Play
2009
April – .511
May. – .468
June- .338
July – .304
Aug.- .337
Sept- .465
2010
April- .530
Those numbers are kooky and interesting.
So… what can we say, if anything, about this? He knows how to “hit ‘em where they ain’t?” Ty Cobb would be proud.
Yes, it seems his BABIP's keep growing to more extremes.
Everyone makes mistakes and this could be a big one for sabermetrics.
“If I can just figure out a way to put the ball in play, I’ll have a good chance to get a hit”- Austin Jackson
http://sports.espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/columns/story?id=5154760
goooooo
that article is by Rob Parker…good for nothing hack.
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Vindication
I was for it when it happened, I was for it all throughout the off season when people were crying, now I’m vindicated. I feel great.
my fave part of the pinstripe alley discussion?
But flash back to 2004. Remember that year? A-Rod started out the season in April hitting around .160. He ended hitting 36 HR that year. And winning 2 MVPs and helping the Yanks win a championship. And he’s still going while Soriano is now an average player. Nobody regrets that trade now.
Ok, granted, he has to be talking about the AL East, in terms of that championship…but I gotta admit, for a minute there, I found the apparent amnesia over the Red Sox and the outcome of that season highly amusing.
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I think he was referring to this past year's World Series.
And referring to the work that A-Rod has done to date since 2004. I read it to mean he was saying that Rodriguez has won the ’05 and ’07 MVP and ’09 World Series since his struggles in April ’04.
Makes a lot more sense than what I came up with
Thanks for the clarification. My eyes must have glazed over the 2 MVPs part when I was reading that.
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Chalk up another
3 hit game for AJax! BA up to .377 now for the league lead. Cano dropped to .371
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