When Carlos Guillen returns, who makes an exit?
by Kurt Mensching on May 7, 2010 6:00 AM EDT
in Detroit Tigers Links
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PrintI don't know about you, but I think I'm feeling a bit fatigued from all the emotion of the the past few days and I'm ready to get back to a little baseball talk.
Carlos Guillen will not be coming off the disabled list Saturday, the Tigers report. He's not quite ready and will need a rehab assignment first, Steve Kornacki of MLive reports. But it's worth asking the question anyway: Who gets the boot when Guillen returns to his spot on the 25-man roster? And that question is different than another one: Who should be the one to give up a spot on the roster?
I ask those questions separately because I'm about 80 percent certain Brennan Boesch will be returning to Triple-A Toledo when Guillen returns. And the logic behind that is exactly the same as the logic in choosing Boesch to come up when Guillen was injured: they're both left-handed outfielders. So the Tigers roster would seem a bit redundant and possibly create a hole by making any other move.
Some might question whether sending Boesch back down is the best move. In 10 games, he's had 38 plate appearances and put together a .324 average / .342 on-base percentage / .622 slugging average line. Hes got two home runs, 10 RBI and a .412 wOBA per Fangraphs.com. In other words, the Tigers are scoring runs and Boesch's production is a big reason why.
Meanwhile a struggling Ryan Raburn has just a .217 average and not a lot of power. His last 10 at-bats have resulted in Raburn getting to a base just twice. He's got 17 strikeouts and four walks.
Don Kelly is actually worse. His line: .172 / .200 / .276. Youch. For whatever reason, he just hits like a AAAA-player. That is, his number in Triple-A always look good. And yet he can never duplicate the efforts in the major leagues.
The only thing is, both of those guys can play in the infield. I feel like that gives them a slight advantage over Boesch in keeping their jobs, from the Tigers' perspective.
However, Kelly is definitely the weakest link of the three. He's only played in the infield four games this year. As Brandon Inge shows his knees are feeling fine, there's less and less reason to keep Kelly around. Raburn still has utility in spelling Scott Sizemore at second base.
And Raburn has at least had a successful period at the plate and a better chance at doing it again. Kelly has no options remaining, but I really don't feel like the organization would be giving up too much if he ended up playing elsewhere.
But maybe they're not ready to make a final decision. And anyway, they don't have to yet.
What's your best guess right now?
Links:
- Nice column by Lynn Henning. And it truly was a very classy thing by Tigers CEO/GM Dave Dombrowski and the front office. I'm a bit surprised that Dombrowski was out there of course. But one thing you can always say about him: he has always been a very upstanding individual. He proved it yet again.
- ESPN wrote a bit about the Mud Hens.
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easy answer
Kelly goes. Ride the hot bat. it’ll just be hard to find enough at bats for everyone. Too bad Guillen can’t play the infield anymore.
by The Duke of Ankh on May 7, 2010 7:24 AM EDT reply actions
Hmm...
I think Guillen can play the infield but not on an everyday basis. He can play SS at times when Leyland wants to give Everett a day off and have Damon in Left, have Ordonez come in and DH and Boesch out in Right. I think we will see Leyland play Guillen at some point in the infield for a game or two. But I agree Kelly is going to be the odd man out in this situation. Raburn is a super sub and can play every position except catcher and pitcher. He reminds me of Shane Halter. When was it back in 98 or 99’ he played every position in one game including catcher and pitcher. That was fun to watch.
Options
What is the option status of the three players?
I know that they can send Boesch down without losing him, and they can’t send Kelly down, but I don’t know about Raburn.
If it were up to me, I would if possible flip Kelly for whatever single A prospect I could get and keep Raburn and Boesch.
Because he has no options Kelly has zero trade value. To be honest though I’m not quite sure that he would even be claimed.
Then agaIn you never know. Casey Fien was on three teams in one week only to return to the Tigers.
by JAYRC on May 7, 2010 7:53 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Should be Kelly or Raburn...
However, DD seemed to hint that he wanted Boesch to receive a steady amount of ABs in his interview with Nick Underhill.
There is logic behind all arguments. Keep Kelly because he plays 1B 3B and the outfield all better than Raburn.
Then again Raburn hits much better than Kelly and has more power. Losing Kelly would mean that we’d see Raburn in the infield more…YIKES!
Perhaps Boesch would benefit from everyday play in AAA. However in just a handful of games he’s amongst the league leaders for all rookies in HR and RBI.
On a team that can’t seem to hit the long ball unless your name is Cabrera…
I say Kelly or Raburn, I really don’t care at thus point. We need Boeschs mighty bat on the bench!!
by JAYRC on May 7, 2010 7:51 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Then give him the AB's
His production should be rewarded, he’s been given the oppurtunity & has stepped up to the plate in a big way, I believe showing that he’s more than ready for MLB.
Sorry state of affiars
When Guillen returns, 5 our our 6 best hitters play the OF. Perhaps we can eliminate SS, do some smart shifting and, go with the beer-league softball style rover. Here’s the new lineup:
1 = Cleaner (CF)
2 = Damon (LF)
3 = Maggs (RF)
4 = Miggy (1B)
5 = Guillen (DH)
6 = Boesch (Rover)
7 = Inge 3B
8 = Sizemore / Santiago (2B)
9 = Avila / Laird ©
Now, this lineup looks like it could score some runs…maybe even enough to offset the moronic idea of using a rover!
I guess Rover means shortstop, and you're gonna put Boesch there?
Start plugging in the guys that we KNOW will be in the starting lineup, and you quickly see that Boesch is on the bench if he’s on the roster at all.
Kelly
Santiago can back up Inge at 3B ok, so Kelly is expendable. But I would send down Sizemore before Raburn. I wouldn’t play him at 3rd, but Raburn plays a good 2B.
A lifelong Tigers fan
Not really.
Sizemore and Raburn have almost the exact same fielding numbers at 2B.
You must be looking at his stats for 3B and OF, which are terrible. He should never be playing those positions.
I watched him play a solid 2B when I lived in Toledo. He’s no gold glover at second, but neither is Sizemore. I think people are far too quick to assume that just because someone is good or bad at one position, they are good or bad at others. Unless your name is Brandon Inge, it just isn’t true.
A lifelong Tigers fan
I think Raburn should be kept far away from the OF.
He’s downright brain melting patrolling the OF.
Dontrelle Willis apologist.
Sizemore may improve, and he NEEDS to improve
Raburn is a proven failure in the infield. He was moved to the outfield after he booted the ball all over the place at 2B for a couple seasons. He hadn’t played in the infield in over a year and a half until Leyland put him at 2B one afternoon in Anaheim. Mike Hessman played LF the same game. We lost 10- 1. Raburn continues to boot 5% of the balls hit to him at 2B and double that amount at 3B.
Raburn,
This may be more based on perception than data, but I am afraid every time Raburn puts on a glove. If Carlos is ready to play again then he will be the bat and the person on the bench is there to spell him late in the game. Do you really want to see Raburn in the outfield late in the game with a close score? I, for one, do not.
He was playing with a glove?
i hardly noticed.
Kelly
Must go, Boesch is swinging too hot of a stick to not be playing right now. They have to find a spot on the field to play a kid who’s a big lefty power bat. Raburn is just a better player overall than Kelly and pretty much plays the same positions as time, however not nearly as well. Although if the Tigers don’t plan on getting Boesch consistent abs then they should send him down to let him develop one last year before he’s up with the big club for good.
Whoa, whoa, whoa. There's still plenty of meat on that bone. Now you take this home, throw it in a pot, add some broth, a potato. Baby, you've got a stew going.
No brainer
Don Kelly. Sure, there are question marks surrounding Raburn and Boesch, but there is NO benefit/upside to Kelly.
Boesch Needs ABs
and he won’t get them when Carlos comes back. Boesch will be a key player in the Tiger’s future (trade or starting OF) and doesn’t need to cool off on the Tiger’s bench. Besides, Guillen will be on the DL again in a month or so and Boesch will be back. I.M.H.O.
I agree
Let Boesch play every day, he looks to have good potential
"When I played pro football, I never set out to hurt anyone deliberately - unless it was, you know, important, like a league game or something." ~ Dick Butkus
by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on May 7, 2010 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions
I would send down Raburn AND Rayburn...
but that would still only clear one spot on the 25 man roster.
Where is Randy Smith when you need him?
Carlos Guillen
He used to be my favorite Tiger, but two years of nothing and this one shaping up to be that just isn’t cutting it.
Maybe he’d do better lower in the rotation, but with his knees, he’d take away from our Boesch, AJax, Damon, or Ordonez. If he could play SS once in a while, it’d be a different story.
It’s either going to be Kelly or Raburn, probably Raburn since Kelly’s depth at 3B. I’d still try to shop Carlos and see if I can warm him up to agree to a trade, but who really needs an off-injured DH?
roster position players that are really hard to trade
tell me where you disagree
ZERO trade value:
Guillen, Inge, Ordonez, Everett, Laird
Maybe if we’re really really lucky we get a player to be named later:
Raburn, Kelly, Santiago
by redwingxviii on May 7, 2010 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions
How about Seattle?
They are their 10 dongers might be desperate enough to welcome back Carlos Guillen.
And on the plus side, then Ken Griffey will have someone ot talk to about his injuries.
Where is Randy Smith when you need him?
They were my first thought
But like I said, his trade value is near worthless.
We’d have to eat most of his salary, and then find a home he likes. Also, it’s not completely unrelated, but years ago I heard rumors that the FO wanted to keep him within the organization when he retires, as a minor-league coach/manager.
by metatron5369 on May 7, 2010 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
this is going to sound like I'm playing favorites (donnie)
but I’m not. boesch needs AB’s, I’ll bet he goes to toledo
Director of the 2010 Free Casper Wells campaign
No Run Support
by allikazoo on May 7, 2010 10:58 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Other- Adam Everett
Kelly is on the team because
1. he can play the infield, especially 3B. Boesch and Raburn can’t.
2. he can play CF. Raburn is very suspect there.
3. he put up a .400 OBP in AAA last year
4. Cletus was his main competition in the spring, and he hit .216 in the second half of 09
5. We don’t need six outfielders
But the Tiger logic works like this: Guillen, Magglio, and Damon are going to play. Don’t need a reason. We have 39 million reasons. That’s a lot of reasons. Now, start counting how many outfielders you have. Boesch goes down, where he’ll get AB’s.
Guillen to Seattle
Maybe if we picked up the majority of Carlos’ contract, we could trade him to Seattle for a low level prospect… It would be a shame to just dump Carlos, but from just a baseball perspective, there are several people I would rather see in the lineup before Carlos right now…
A lifelong Tigers fan
Yeah, but
I don’t want Carlos on the roster for two years either…
by metatron5369 on May 7, 2010 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Why not?
…Hes hitting over .300 this year and had a great september last year.
by BennieBladesFan on May 7, 2010 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions
because less than one month into the season
he already landed on the DL. for what 2 or 3 weeks? Won’t be the last time this season either. So as well as he’s been hitting he is more of a liability to this team than an asset.
Welcome to Detroit, NO sissies allowed
All the more reason
He almost doesn’t take up a roster space at that rate, he’ll play when healthy, when not we’ll call up what ever AAA outfielder is hot. He doesn’t really block those guys since we only expect him to play 80 games.
but doesn't that cost a guy an option every time he's called up?
What happens when, say one of these “hot bat” rookies runs out of options? I would rather see this organization eat Carlos’ contract, or the biggest part of it than use the up all the options for what could be the future of this organization.
Welcome to Detroit, NO sissies allowed
No.
When a player is on the 40 man roster and is sent to the minors after spring training, he uses up an option for that year. He can go up and down as many times as the club likes during the season, and he still uses up ONE option year.
thanks for the clarification
I thought they used an option each time they came and went. Its good to know that it’s only one per season, but I’d still like to see the organization eat Guillen’s contract.
Welcome to Detroit, NO sissies allowed
I Agree with Detroitchik
We have given Guillen more than enough chances. He is to large of a liabillity now. We have Young Players that need to come up & play Great/VG ball for us like Boesch has been doing. Eat His Contract & let him Go Now if we can trade him for anything do it while he is worth something/anything……….
by TigersFan1957 on May 8, 2010 5:59 PM EDT up reply actions
That kind of left handed pop...
can be a real asset off the bench.
My Music: Some Sorta Giant
My Blog: Strike Three Mechanics
there is 0% that Boesch will be on the Tiger's bench
If he stays, he plays.
However, there is no position for him to play with Ordonez, Guillen and Damon playing
DH/corner outfield.
Therefore Boesch will, 100% be sent down to AAA, where he will bat 4th and get at bats every day.
It’s important for him to keep getting better (especially defensively) because he will be called up again this year, and perhaps in a crucial situation where the Tigers really really need him.
That being said, I think Donnie Kelly is and always will be a AAAA player.
However, that IS the reason he’s one our club.
Most backups and pinch hitters are AAAA players.
AAA players who are good prospects are to valuable to sit the bench.
by Cecil_Fielder on May 7, 2010 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions
True
I think you are right. We’ve got to get him at bats, and especially time in the OF.
Although until Boesch cools off, I would be fine having Guillen on the bench as the late-innings pinch hitter.
A lifelong Tigers fan
You would be fine, not sure I would be...however
Guillen has earned the respect to play. There is NO WAY he sits on the bench as pinch hitter.
And besides, I want Carlos to play…he is clutch and a great hitter when healthy.
by Cecil_Fielder on May 7, 2010 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Kelly should go.
I’m 90% certain he wouldn’t be claimed anyways. No one’s making room for him on their 25 man roster any time soon, so the Tigers shouldn’t be either.
My old blog is Tigers By The Numbers.
Now I write at Bless You Boys.
Like music? See what I'm listening to at my Last.fm account.
I agree that Kelly would NOT be picked up. No way!
But that’s not the issue. Kelly has been barely playing.
Who would suffer in terms of at bats? Boesch? Guillen? Ordonez? Damon?
by Cecil_Fielder on May 7, 2010 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Him barely playing just speaks to him needing to go.
You can be creative. Guillen at DH, Boesch in LF, reverse that, get Damon at DH or LF, Raburn at 2B/3B and whatnot. Flexibility shouldn’t be a bad thing.
My old blog is Tigers By The Numbers.
Now I write at Bless You Boys.
Like music? See what I'm listening to at my Last.fm account.
It will be Boesch
Unfortunately. Raburn is out of options, Kelly can play IF. Enjoy the Boeschbashes while you can!
by ChrisDTX on May 7, 2010 5:00 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
to be a bit more exact, raburn has an option but has to clear revokable waivers
per Eddie B’s chart at tiger thoughts, anyway.
by Kurt Mensching on May 7, 2010 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Well then, I'm an idiot
Thanks for the clarification!
Also, the Twins game tonight has been postponed to rain/snow. Ha!
by ChrisDTX on May 7, 2010 5:10 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
hahaha we all knew it was going to happen
and in related news … winter storm warning here!
by Kurt Mensching on May 7, 2010 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Players always clear revocable waivers
Even in the games between clubs that hate each other (NYY and Boston), they don’t stop a club from sending a player down to the minors.
Eddie neatly explained how Raburn managed to not use up his last option last year, though, since he was not in the minors for a full 20 days when Willis hyper extended his knee and Ryan was recalled for the rest of the season.
Henning, FWIW, says that if the call were made today, Raburn would go down. I’m not so sure. Henning is usually wrong on roster moves.
Another player that has an option left is Zach Miner. I expect he’ll be put on a nice long rehab assignment. If and when he returns to the majors, it would seem that Brad Thomas is the odd man out.
Boesch needs to go down
If there’s any chance of developing discipline, it won’t happen at this level.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
Assist. Editor, Minor League Division, Bless You Boys
I have actually been very surprised by his discipline
However, I have a feeling that second time around, pitchers will not be throwing him as many strikes and he will be striking out tons, like he did in spring training.
But that’s ok, he’s a slugger. Adam Dunn types numbers would be GREAT!
My bigger concern is his defense. He is a very good athlete, but he clearly does not know how to take good routs and SQUEEZE the glove.
by Cecil_Fielder on May 7, 2010 5:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Who goes?
Wishful thinking I know but Adam Everett would be my choice. Move Inge to short and let Kelly play 3rd a while I think he would hit if he got the AB’s
To those who would let Kelly go
You would have Ordonez, Guillen, Damon, Jackson, Raburn, and Boesch all on the roster.
Six outfielders.
In the infield, Cabrera, Santiago, Inge, Sizemore and Everett.
If you use Santiago to backup 2B or 3B, then you’re stuck with Everett, no PH and no backup for him. They won’t do that.
Who Should Go?
Place Guillen on Wavers. Let him go. He will just wind up hurt again so let him go now. He is just not worth keeping any more. Cut our losses & let him go. Send Kelly down (or Waivers) & bring up Larish.
Boesch Stays Put!
Brennan Boesch is the next best thing thats happened to the Tigers this spring outside of Austin Jackson. If he is sent back then one could definitely make the case that Leyland and Dombrowski were NOT doing everything possible to give the Tigers the best chance to win ballgames. Kelly and Rayburn have been god-awful this year. Rayburn has all the athleticism of a little leaguer in left field. He’s horrible!!! Neither Kelly nor Rayburn can hit with consistency. So if Boesch departs then I tune the Tigers out for the rest of the season. Why should I sit here every night watching these clowns strike out and pop up time after time when I know there are better options? But I guess the Tigers look at options as dollars and cents not wins and losses. They probably have fewer options left on Rayburn. But to the fans it doesnt matter. Give us the best you got. Don’t try to BS us either. If the Tigers dont care then why should we?
Guillen Haters
OBP = .391…443 SLG. LH Bat behind Miggs
I’m not sure we should be just releasing these sort of numbers from one of our LH bats. Sure, we get frustrated when he is injured, but I guess I’ll take those numbers for 300 AB’s (if that’s what he can give us) rather than give some other team 300 AB’s worth of those numbers. It’s not like his 40-man roster spot is going to help us in the bigs anyhow. The only argument against him is that we might get better production from Boesch, but I just don’t see that happening over the course of this season. Guillen is a proved MLB hitter when healthy. Boesch has had a few good weeks.
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