Tigers offense "effective"? Ha! Indians 3, Tigers 2
by Kurt Mensching on Jun 1, 2010 10:51 PM EDT
in Detroit Tigers Analysis
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Allow me to sum the game up briefly:
Same Shit. Different Day.
Jeremy Bonderman pitched into the eighth inning, allowing a handful of runs in the process. Unfortunately again it was the second run that would receive credit for being "game-winner."
The Tigers can't score runs. The pitcher loses another tough-luck loss.
Oops.
It's not often I call a writer out for bad ideas. But today's game happened to be very bad timing for the Detroit News' columnist Bob Wojnowski. He wrote:
Left-handed starter Cliff Lee is the one I'd pursue, now that the Mariners might shop the former Cy Young winner. I know, I know. What fans desperately crave is a hitter, underscored by the Tigers' current slump, seven losses in nine games. It was capped by a 4-1 loss to the Athletics Monday, when Justin Verlander was good, but not quite good enough.
*snip*
Of course, if the Tigers hit a bit more, they'd feel better too. But believe it or not, they score enough runs, and rank high enough in most categories to be effective.
"We've been in a little bit of a funk, as teams do," Leyland said. "We're a good-hitting club. We just haven't been doing too much lately, that's an understatement."
And as the games pile up, so do the trends. For the Tigers, the market leading to the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline will be important, and they can't keep taxing their fine bullpen with suspect pitching starts.
Crazy talk.
Crazy talk, I say.
Crazy talk.
He cites the rotation's ERA as a problem. Well, the rotation was a problem in the past, all right. Again, they failed to show up in the month of April. After Max Scherzer's 14-strikeout performance, manager Jim Leyland wondered if the spring training regiment was failing his pitchers. That's certainly a question worth pursuing for the team, because the starters were all but terrible in April. In May, most of them improved. Well, not Dontrelle Willis, but he's Arizona's problem now.
Going forward, I have a lot more faith the rotation is fine. And the bullpen continues to be fine.
No, the Tigers don't need to throw away the farm for Cliff Lee in order to continue losing games by failing to score runs.
Oh, wait. Wojo said the Tigers score enough runs? They lead Chicago, Oakland, Cleveland, Baltimore and Seattle in run-scoring. They trail the Royals.
THE ROYALS!
And most of that run scoring of Detroit's came in a burst of insanity that was assisted by leadoff batter Austin Jackson hitting a completely unsustainable .500+ BABIP for the first five weeks of the season. It's since been assisted by an unsustainable start by Brennan Boesch.
We knew this team would struggle to score runs. It briefly fooled those of us who didn't look a bit deeper into the stats to say if the start was sustainable or not.
No, Detroit isn't quite as bad at plating runs as it has shown the past two weeks or so. Johnny Damon should improve. Magglio Ordonez ought to pull out of a bit of a slump. It's going to take a little more help than that for Miguel Cabrera, who can't account for all the runs himself.
But I have to be honest with you: This isn't the Tigers' year.
It's just not.
They're good enough for second place. I've said all along and I'll say it again: it's going to take a big assist from the Twins for Detroit to win the division.
Any move the team makes to improve in 2010 must be made with an eye to winning the division in 2011. That is a much more attainable goal. Lee is not going to help with that cause. Find someone for the left side of the infield or the corner outfield to help fill those holes present now and in the future, and then you're on to something.
Otherwise it's just wasted effort.
Much like Bonderman's fabulous start tonight.
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Meh....the only good news Kurt.......
is that I did pick up the Girl with the Dragon Tattoo and it’s proving pretty smashing as I navigate a business trip in Miami and as many mojitos as Bruce Campbell can quaff
+100000 for a bruce campbell reference
glad you’re enjoying the book.
by Kurt Mensching on Jun 1, 2010 11:15 PM EDT up reply actions
I saw the movie
1) Didn’t know that it was going to be subtitled
2) Thought they were speaking German until about halfway through
3) Thought it was good in the end
"All aboard!"
Boesch Bandwagon Conductor
OT some more
I have the book but haven’t read yet. excited to.
Director of the 2010 Free Casper Wells campaign
No Run Support
couldn't agree more
“feels all of a sudden like its not the Tigers year”. At What point do you become a seller at the deadline, instead of a buyer, 5GB, 8 or 10. Minnesota has solid pitching, a scarry 1-9 and the mojo of a new stadium. In the wild card have to get past 2/3 (TB, Bos, and NY). I don’t see it happening.
With that in mind, I would unload Bondo, Ordonez, Guillen and Damon (no Trade clause), inge, for a shortstop, Third Baseman, or catcher. Do it quick, balance the budget, and play the kids. Might have better attendance with sizemore, striebly, wells, ciraco, duggy, worth, and company, along with prospects aquired.
Still like Caberra at 3rd, strieby at first.
At first, I was skeptical about you filling in for Ian
but over the past few weeks, you have summed up my thoughts on the team very well. Kudos to running a very nice blog.
Anyway, remember ’06 and ’07 when no game felt like it was over? That feeling is completely gone.
You say that they’ll need a big assist from the Twins to win the division. I say that isn’t possible. I truly think that Joe Mauer could be sidelined for the rest of the year with some freak injury and the Twins would still win the division. I know it’s pessimistic to write off the season on June 1st but unfortunately, the Twins are everything that’s RIGHT with baseball. They are a model franchise. Who else could lose one of the best closers in baseball and still be 11 games over .500?
As cathartic as it is to come on the Internet and write about how this team is done for, it’s provokes a bit of an empty feeling after getting so excited after the first month and a half of baseball.
Who else could lose one of the best closers in baseball and still be 11 games over .500?
Any team that is 11 games over .500 is doing so because of a lot of other reasons, not because of their closer. The bullpen as a whole is helping them, not just Rausch.
by handsomerob1 on Jun 2, 2010 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions
I wouldn't call Bonderman's start "fabulous"
Decent, yes. But he was aided by an Indians lineup that was content to swing early in the count and help keep his pitch total down. They also hit an awful lot of balls hard that found gloves (of course on the flipside they also got some bloopers and infield singles to fall in). The results were OK, but I’m starting to expect more from 38.
by ChrisDTX on Jun 1, 2010 11:19 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Might be a bit unfair
Considering a year ago, we were wondering if he’d ever be a big league pitcher again.
Possibly
But now that it’s pretty obvious he’s OK, I’m not grading him on a curve. Maybe I’ll grade him on a slider.
by ChrisDTX on Jun 2, 2010 10:28 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
Don't grade him on the splitter though
He hates throwing it, you know.
The weird (and scary) thing is that it doesn't feel like "the Twins year"
They aren’t the Reds or the Blue Jays. They are NOT overachieving. They’re winning games they’re supposed to because they’re a better team than just about every team (save NY) out there. What they have is a sustainable ball club built for August and September. And we don’t. And that sucks.
I'm thinking now about those 6 or so "come back wins" that the Tigers had in the first month of the season...
… and wondering if the Tigers are a sub .500 team?
I look over the lineup and the staff and the stats, and I have a hard time believing that they aren’t better than .500.
"All aboard!"
Boesch Bandwagon Conductor
when it is said and done, tigers season is all over with I can see way under .500, let’s say 70-92 seriously speaking , wear they are going par for the course, no offense to speak of which in order to win ball games, tigers doesn’t have it, they are poor as far as run production, the tiger average per games below now 4 runs per games in 50 games..anyway, until , tigers wake-up and recognizing pitches at the dish which they have no clue want going on …..FOCUS, DISCIPLINE,RECOGNIZING PITCHES THAT ARE THROWN TO THEM…..Yes baseball is a funny game, every teams absolutely must have pitching, hitting= offense, as a fan spanding nearly 45 years and counting, both in th NL & AL have the same problem for decades now not just Detroit Tigers…Again, as far as hitting goes you must on your games to hit effectively otherwise, the results are horrible as we can see by the tigers and other teams as well..Finally, baseball is all about hitting & pitching and defence all three essentials must be in order to be victorous year in and out year , if a team doesn’t have all three and missing one or two it will not work.
by '' spiderman '' on Jun 2, 2010 2:07 AM EDT up reply actions
Kurt
Love BYB. Appreciate all the hard work you do. Not the Tigers year? I guess that is why we’ll have to play the all the games. Stranger things have happened. Like blowing a 3 game lead with 4 games to go.
On another note, lots of Sharks fans in Hancock. The equipment manager is a local.
by RealityIsOptionable on Jun 2, 2010 12:18 AM EDT reply actions
I'd wonder if we could pick up a SS from Tampa
In exchange for bullpen parts and a prospect. Then again, that’s probably wishful thinking, but if we could grab Jason Bartlett or Reid Brignac for one of our top relief prospects (Scherleth-caliber) and a good arm like Brayan Villareal, I’d be thrilled. Again, probably entirely unrealistic.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
Assist. Editor, Minor League Division, Bless You Boys
I agree
I’m not thrilled with our output from our catchers, but I could live with it if we had a solid short stop. Jason Bartlett would be awesome! As long as Schlereth and Weinhardt stay!
We'd have to give up one of them to make it work
Either that or Zumaya, but I don’t think he’d be enough b/c of his health issues- and it’d be a signal we were giving up in the Central.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
Assist. Editor, Minor League Division, Bless You Boys
Also, regarding the catchers
At least Avila has some offensive upside.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
Assist. Editor, Minor League Division, Bless You Boys
Some...
…Also remember laird has hit the ball a lot better this year…Just hasnt had any luck getting some of those scremers to drop in.
by BennieBladesFan on Jun 2, 2010 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions
No, Gerald hasn't hit the ball better this year
Avila is walking at a better rate, and has a higher line drive rate as well. He’s not having the completely awful BAbip luck that Gerald is, but it’s still way down there at .230, so he’s had a lot of bad luck too.
Avila also has upside, has been playing defense just as well this season so far, and has more HRs (or even as many, if you count the one for Gerald that Gabe Gross caught) with 40 LESS ABs.
If it’s a contest between a prospect, a defense-only catcher who isn’t playing D, I’ll take the prospect every time.
by ozymandius1024 on Jun 2, 2010 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions
+1
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
Assist. Editor, Minor League Division, Bless You Boys
I do think it doesn't look like it's our year.
But then again we’re not even a third of the way into the season. Let’s see where we’re at in a couple months.
by Terrence J. Lynch on Jun 2, 2010 1:12 AM EDT reply actions
I feel the same way on both accounts...
…Give m e until June 15th…2 more weeks to see.
by BennieBladesFan on Jun 2, 2010 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions
Nice Piece. I'm trying to stay positive but it's getting harder...
At least the SP seems to be improving. Looking ahead, the Tiger’s have JV, Porcello and Max under contract through 2014, so their performance is critical. Bonderman is pitching better than expected and Zumaya’s relief work is a pleasant surprise.
Your point about Ajax and Boesch is right on – they’ll regress to their actual current ability (saw a projection on Ajax – .260 BA including the great start. Be cool if Damon could teach him that walks are good too. (thank God they signed Damon, otherwise Rayburn (?)).
On the plus side, exchanging Carlos for Sizemore is a huge improvement. There’s hope one of the Catchers can add .50 to sub .200 BA.
But the Twins have the better team. Mortgaging future seasons for the slim chance of catching Minnesota this year, as you wrote, would be a mistake. With a bunch of bad contracts ending this year and a few more after 2011, the Tigers have the opportunity to have an excellent team in the near future. I just hope they’re competing through the summer.
Well, that was the most depressing recap in awhile.
Maybe even more depressing than watching our offense…
Wishful thinking gets a strong dose of reality.
Yeah Kurt, you’re right. We always have hope to fall back on, but this season may be a bust sooner than later. I think the ultimate effect of the season may be to look for a new manager. Is that a good thing or a bad thing?
Very True...
…we had some some good 3 game stretches but nothign consistent at all.
by BennieBladesFan on Jun 2, 2010 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions
um, yeah
there were several, that before this strtch that OBP of over .350. so I’d say that’s a start.
Welcome to Detroit, NO sissies allowed
I always find it hard to read recaps when I know we lost.
I putz on sadface. :(
My Music: Some Sorta Giant
My Blog: Strike Three Mechanics
An idea
The tigers offense is in the enviable position of being well below league below average at a few positions. So, essentially any move that replaces our catcher, 3rd baseman and/or SS would be an upgrade. I propose the Tigers offer Laird to the Red Sox for Lowell and Varitek. Red Sox would welcome the defensive catching upgrade and would more so welcome the exit of Mike Lowell (basically, Lowell is available to any team in baseball at the league minimum for a body in return…). The Sox aren’t as actively looking to dump to Tek, but by getting a catcher, they’d need to move him. Varitek makes $3M while Laird makes $3.95M – so a swap of those salaries hurts no one. Now, of course Tek and Lowell would need to waive their no trades (Lowell has already said as much, Tek is a question). The saddest aspect of this deal is how adding these two former stars in steep, steep decline actually makes our lineup better. To complete the deal, either Raburn or Kelly would need to be shipped out. But now you’ve got Lowell taking up the majority of Inge’s bad at bats and Varitek taking all of Laird’s horrifying at bats.
Dont care for Lowell...
…Id rather have Inge and laird…Dont want a guy who is more injury prone then Los.
by BennieBladesFan on Jun 2, 2010 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions
What is this BYB obsession with Lowell and Varitek?
I thought the whole goal was to get younger and faster, not older and more injury prone.
Sure, but
I agree that adding Lowell and Varitek (even three years ago) won’t elicit new 100-win projections for this year or allow Dombrowski to take the next year and half off. I was more trying to think about what we could do now to improve the offense that doesn’t cost us that much (either money or players) and doesn’t depend on another minor league player exceeding our expectations. I think I’m just giddy at the thought of spinning Laird into more than a bag of (used) balls.
Varitek is not an upgrade (especially not offensively)
And Lowell is injury bait. Just say no.
Dontrelle Willis apologist.
All this negativity is a function of losing 8 of 10
There’s still lots of games left. The Twins will be tough to catch, but it’s not unpossible. I don’t recall seeing a single projection system that pegged the Twins as more than an 86 win team so they might be overperforming a touch. Justin Morneau, as good as he is, is not THIS good for instance.
by ChrisDTX on Jun 2, 2010 10:34 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Agree...
…I said in another topic on here as long as we win the series with the teams in the division we will be there at the end…Now that means we have to take the next 2 from Cleveland.
by BennieBladesFan on Jun 2, 2010 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions
Mauer only has 2 HRs on the season
That is bound to change. I agree that Morneau is overacheiving but the reason Minnesota is scary is that they are extremely balanced. There is not one even remotely glaring hole in their team.
by B-Race Miles on Jun 2, 2010 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions
Mauer is never going to hit 28 HR again.
His most in a year other than that is 13, which he’ll be lucky to reach this year.
Agreed
Plus, from what we’ve seen so far, the ball doesn’t carry as well at Target Field that it did in the Circus Dome of Hell. That could have an impact on Mauer’s HR totals (and other Twins, for that matter).
It's not like
Mauer is a sure fire power threat. Last year he had 28, but before that he had no year with over 13. Based on this years performance I’d place him in around 15 at best.
I'd argue that SS is a hole for them
not an Adam Everett-sized hole, but JJ Hardy pretty much sucks. And is oft-injured. 3B? Last I checked Nick Punto is still getting most of the AB’s there. They’re still giving lots of AB to Delmon Young, who’s overperforming as well. Jason Kubel will probably hit for more power/average at some point, but is an overrated player.
Now, the stars. Morneau is posting a ludicrous .489 OBP (his career mark is .358). His BABiP is also .423. Of course he’s an awesome player, but there is definitely some room for regression. Mauer’s rate stats aren’t that far off his career norms. 2009 was an outlier of awesomeness for him, though he’s still plenty awesome. As has already been mentioned, his HR power last year was kinda fluky. Cuddyer is also a nice player, but this year he’s performing almost exactly like he did from 2004-07 (he was injured in ‘08 and out of his mind in ’09). So I don’t think Mauer and Cuddyer are really going to produce much more than they already have and that Morneau will fall back closer to this planet.
Anyway, I guess what I’m saying is that the Twins probably have a 2-8 stretch or two in them as well. There will be opportunities to catch them throughout the summer if the Tigers can get their heads out of their asses posthaste.
This is the kind of pessimism I like
The kind for the rivals.
I’ve been thinking essentially the same thing. I’ve been very down on Minnesota’s rotation all year, and I feel that if the Tigers’ luck with pitching changes (seems like it’s started to) the teams will be very even.
If DD finds a way to somehow (it’s insanely unlikely, but it really would go a long way) upgrade SS this season and Avila becomes the starting catcher, the lineup looks completely different.
1. Jackson
2. Damon
3. Ordonez
4. Cabrera
5. Boesch/Guillen
6.Guillen/Boesch
7. Avila
8. New SS
9. Inge
That’s a pretty scary lineup, combined with a rotation pitching to it’s potential and the bullpen merely being ok, that’s a team that could easily compete with the current incarnation of the Twins.
by ozymandius1024 on Jun 2, 2010 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd see this instead
CF Jackson
LF Damon
RF Ordonez
1B Cabrera
DH Boesch
3B Guillen
2B Sizemore
C Avila
SS Santiago
It’s not that I want to unload Inge, it’s that if you want the offense…
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
Assist. Editor, Minor League Division, Bless You Boys
Meh, it's not over
1.) the twins have never had the team that runs away with anything. that pitching staff is a little too run of the mill for that.
2.) you want to talk about unsustainable BABIP? Morneau is currently at around .420, .100 points higher than any other year in his career. AND, this isn’t a singles hitter like Jackson who is spraying the ball all over the field. This guy is hitting the ball into a shift every time at the plate. When you are getting that kind of impact out of your cleanup spot, especially with Mauer in front, runs are plentiful.
Can Someone Give me a Logical Explanation for the Twins Walk Numbers?
This season the Twins batters have received 224 free passes to first and have only given up 113 walks!! How can that be unless the strikezone mysteriously shrinks when Twins batter step up to the plate and the strikezone balloons into a large blob when the Twins pitchers take to the mound! The Tigers by conrast have a normal ratio of 1 to 1 with 186 walks for and 191 walks given up.
As has been mentioned numerous times in reference to the Twins
they target guys who throw strikes in the draft and through trades/free agency. They preach a strike-throwing mentality throughout their minor league system. If you can’t find the strike zone, you don’t make the team. It’s their organizational philosophy. This is why the Tigers heisted Rick Knapp from them.
Ok but those number are ridiculous
No one is that good in the history of the gae over 100 years!
by Marcmargolis on Jun 2, 2010 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Come back with some numbers
I’d argue that some of those Yankees teams in the 1990s could have gotten close.
Elias Sports Bureau
Go look it up yourself. There is no way that this has happened in the past unless it was the 1927 Yankees with Ruth, Gehrig, Meusel, Dickey….feared hitters 1-8 not guys like Punto, Cuddyer, Young etc that put zero fear into any pitcher!
Twins pitchers and BB
2009: Fewest BB in the AL (by 41)
2008: Fewest BB in the AL (by 38)
2007: 2nd fewest BB in the AL (Cleveland beat them by 10)
2006: Fewest BB in the AL (by 73!)
Sensing a trend here? They average right around 420 BB per season as a staff since 2006, which is right around what their pace is for this year.
Hitters
The Tigers need more hitters, and the only way you get them is to pay for them.
Or you could, you know
develop them or trade for them, like they’ve been doing.
The Tigers are doing exactly what we expected
Everyone knew they weren’t the best team in baseball. Most thought in preseason that we were just a .500 and that too many things had to go right for us to win the division.
But currently a lot of those question marks have been answered positively
Magglio has looked great, Cabrera is having a herculean season, Jackson has proved to be an effective leadoff hitter, Bonderman looks solid, and the bullpen is a strength. We have even got an unexpected lift from Boesch.
The surprises have been Porcello and Scherzer’s struggles, and if they can figure it out, does that make this team a division contender? It’s possible.
I had a dream today
That we picked up a SS for Brennan Boesch and Brayan Villareal. Not even kidding. Can’t remember the SS though.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
Assist. Editor, Minor League Division, Bless You Boys
Was it Roger Dorn?
No, wait, he played 3B.
by ChrisDTX on Jun 2, 2010 6:50 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
trade?nada
Look for 50 years and counting tigers only have two world series rings [68 , 84]. Key is hitting and scoring runs in 68 and 84 they are clicking on all cylinders – pitching, defense, hitting…Now, with the 68 team and 84 team we didnt trade any guys for other teams we started nine players on the baseball field as regulars every single game no putooning we have to get back to hitting,pitching,defense consistently just like they did 68 and 84, which in those years the tigers had recognizing pitches that are thrown to them. The Detroit Tigers in 2010 doesn’t have the capabilities to perform and recognizing the pitches that are thrown to them. Tigers have a good team going but, too any trades going in at least the last fives started with 2006 including putooning, which the Tigers organization for reason the players that they trading for doesn’t pan out in the end regardless of positions players, pitchers or hitting prospects. Finally, The Farm Club is excellent no problems but, rookies that make the grade should recognize all aspects of the game of baseball.We enough to be a excellent team only it requires the hitting aspect .. Good luck this year Tigers, remember, 68 and 84 back track.
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