Tiger Should Trade Valverde for a Starter or Bat

by Tyler Bullock on Jun 2, 2010 9:52 AM EDT

Jose Valverde has been a pretty dominant closer, he has all the stats that everybody loves like ERA and Save Percentage. But his BABIP is at a ridiculously low .160. It's bound to regress toward the mean big time, especially since he's new to the AL and getting so lucky right now. We could really put anybody in the closer spot (Zumaya?) and they could be just as effective.

His stock is probably really high considering how well he's closed out games for us. What we really need though, is someone to pitch 6-7 innings or bring some runs to the lineup rather than somebody to pitch one inning after we already have the lead. We could trade him and Ryan Strieby (any other ideas?) and get a great addition to our rotation or lineup and fix the glaring holes in at least one of them. Additionally, we could bring up Jay Sborz to replace him in the pen. He's dominating in Toledo and is incredibly cheaper than the Big Potato. (Valverde's making almost $7 mil, Sborz is making the league minimum).

Maybe I'm just high off Billy Beane after reading Moneyball but it seems like a good idea to capitalize off those who are enamored with the mystique of the closer, especially when we have a bullpen and a minor leaguer that could easily cover his loss.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Bless You Boys writing staff.

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I agree,

but only under the condition that any deal will benefit the Tigs beyond 2010. I agree with Kurt that 2010 is not the Tigers’ year. Without giving up entirely, I think now is a good time to start thinking about 2011 and beyond. If trading Valverde means we can get someone who will help us in the future at a position of need (SS?), then I think you have to make that deal. Hopefully DD is not so enamored with Valverde’s sparkly ERA that he doesn’t see just how lucky Big Potato is getting. In addition to that .160 BABIP, Valverde also has a ridiculously high strand rate (96.6% compared to a career 79.3%). When that BABIP regresses, so will his strand rate. And while his ERA will still be pretty good, he will not end the year with a 0.44 ERA.

by Dberg on Jun 2, 2010 11:25 AM EDT reply actions

Good luck trading that contract

While I like the idea, I don’t know how many teams will want to be locked in to Valverde for 2010, 2011, and possibly 2012 for around $7 million per year (I believe his 2012 option goes up to $9 million). And yes, this CANNOT be a “win now” move. I’d take a bat before another starter though, the rotation is starting to come around.

Detroit4Lyfe

by Rob Rogacki on Jun 2, 2010 11:33 AM EDT reply actions

+1

by SmittyJ on Jun 2, 2010 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions

Bingo

Plus, trading relievers doesn’t exactly net massive returns.

Dontrelle Willis apologist.

by 13194013 on Jun 2, 2010 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions

OK, bear with me here

Imagine what Rivera, Papelbon or Broxton would net in return. When you get to late July and you’re in the thick of a race, but have a leaky bullpen…this is the time when GM’s put on their crazypants. Example: Francisco Cordero to Milwaukee for Carlos Lee/Nellie Cruz (granted there were other parts to this deal, but those were the principal figures). Or the Gagne example below. Billy Wagner brought back 3 guys to Houston when they traded him to Philly. The top-tier guys have pretty decent trade value.

Also, Valverde has been awesome and worth the money so far. If you have designs on contending for the rest of this year and next, trading him would be pretty dumb.

by ChrisDTX on Jun 2, 2010 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions

I'd keep him

he stabilizes the back end of a young bullpen and he’s crazy as shit, making him extremely fun to watch.

Detroit4Lyfe

by Rob Rogacki on Jun 3, 2010 8:26 AM EDT up reply actions

How much do you think a reliever is worth?

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by David Tokarz on Jun 2, 2010 11:34 AM EDT reply actions

Trying to think of the last time a closer was traded in season...

The Rangers got 3 players in return from Boston for Gagne a couple of years ago. David Murphy, Kason Gabbard and Engel Beltre. And that was with the idea that Gagne would set up Papelbon, not close.

Anyway, trading Valverde at this juncture is a non-starter for me.

by ChrisDTX on Jun 2, 2010 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions

no.

our rotation will be fine. and our lineup can be addressed from within the system if need be. Trades just to trade are silly. Besides, a reliever isn’t worth much. Especially one with a big contract.

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by madpoopz on Jun 2, 2010 1:25 PM EDT reply actions

Note

Relievers are more likely to sustain an insanely low BABiP on account of the paucity of innings pitched compared to starters.

by ChrisDTX on Jun 2, 2010 1:42 PM EDT reply actions

I guess that all makes sense

I don’t think relievers are worth much, which is why I suggested trading him, but apparently DD does…why did he sign him to that absurd contract?

Good point about trading for the sake of trading, I was just thinking it might be an opportune time before he starts to not look like Mariano Rivera anymore.

Yeah I suppose a Major League GM has enough common sense to understand the situation and contract haha.

Thanks to everyone for responding to my first post on BYB

Would like nothing more than to have a smoke with Jim Leyland

by Tyler Bullock on Jun 2, 2010 3:36 PM EDT reply actions

I'm on board, but...

I’ve read more than one place many overestimate the actual value of a high priced, ‘shutdown’ closer.
I’m sure GMs know this – but if the team loses more than a few games where they lead in the ninth, tons of fans will become hysterical – “Fire Leyland, fire DD, etc.”
Is it possible closers are valued for their PR reasons as well are their pitching?

by intp41 on Jun 2, 2010 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions