Boesch v. Stanton - Comparing Prospects

Be easy on me, guys!

1. 25 year olds are at or nearing their peak.
2. Don’t underestimate that 20 point difference in OBP- 20 walks over a season can make a big difference.
3. You can’t ignore the hole in his swing so easily, either.

is helped by the fact that Major League pitchers have better control than those he faced in the minors, and with the ball closer to the plate, Boesch is excelling.

Vlad Guerrero swings at alot of pitches, and that seems to have worked out for him.

Additionally, I think we’d be remiss if we didn’t acknowledge that Boesch is also batting between Miggy and Carlos Guillen, so I guess he’ll see alot of strikes, and alot of fastballs.

Seems like Boesch is getting a lot of love and thats great. Just wondering why we are comparing him to Heyward and now Stanton? All are going to be great players. Never saw any of these comaprions with ajax on here? Oh Well. Love Ajax and Boesch. GO TIGS!!

What prompted this post was those in the baseball media who use stats to affirm their belief in the talent of a young player, but dismiss similar stats of a player they consider mediocre. It’s really about the selective use of stats to project a young player’s future.

I have no qualms with people believing Stanton or Heyward have a much higher ceiling than Boesch, particularly if that belief is based on athleticism, feel for the game, mental toughness, etc. I don’t think Boesch is in the same catagory as either of those two players based on what I have read and seen. But analyzing minor league stats is a poor tool for judging talent in the long run.

Rarely do players perform at their minor league levels statistically. Some hit for higher average, some lower, some find their power stroke over time, some fail miserably. Projecting major league performance via minor league stats is not even close to a scientific method.

My gut feeling is Boesch will be a streaky, sometimes frustrating power hitter with middling batting average, and improved fielding as he settles in at an outfield position. He’ll be around for a long while, but he won’t hit .340! And the kid certainly has flare!

Both will be playing in the tigers OF for many years.

It wasn’t widely vocalized, but he was K’ing a ton in the low-minors which isn’t always a good thing, but he’s gotten it to a level that I think he’ll be fine making contact in the majors.

My main thing with Boesch isn’t that he’ll K a lot – you can K in over 20% of your PA’s and still be an effective ball player. You just have to supplement your high K totals with either great BB rates (not Boesch’s forte in the minors/majors), elite power (Definitely something Boesch possesses) or well above-average defense (he’s been better in LF than I thought he’d be).

I don’t want to say I’m coming around because his contact rate/BABIP has been unsustainably high. I think he’ll settle in 260/.310/.480 range which still gives him a great Iso (a.k.a. great power), but highlights a lack of walks and contact rate.

The following is from Jason Grey’s scouting report on Boesch, via ESPN. A good statistical confirmation of my take on “holes” in his swing. You can read the whole article here: http://insider.espn.go.com/sports/fantasy/blog?name=grey_jason&id=5340859

‘First, there’s the report that he’s hitting the ball no matter where you throw it. This is backed up by Inside Edge data. Inside Edge produces scouting reports which break up the strike zone into nine squares, and identifies them as “hot,” “average” or “cold” zones based on the batter’s production on pitches in those areas. All nine of the areas in Boesch’s report are hot zones, which is even more rare than you might think. That assertion is also backed by an advance scout from another team, who simply said, “No strikes, anywhere.”’