Does Fu-Te Ni need a trip to Toledo?
by Kurt Mensching on Jun 22, 2010 6:00 AM EDT
in Detroit Tigers Links
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PrintThe interesting thing about relievers: One season they can seem so good, the next they can seem so average.
Fu-Te Ni is no exception.
A midseason callup by Detroit last year, the Taiwanese left-hander seemed like he could do no wrong. Batters hit just .186 against him and he allowed just a baserunner per inning. Finishing the season with a 2.16 ERA, Ni looked like he'd be a valuable late-innings reliever for the Tigers this season, especially as a lefty-specialist.
Then a funny thing happened. Reality caught up to the statistics he was putting up.
If you looked a little deeper, you'd have found his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) was 4.16 and his xFIP (home run luck is accounted for) was 5.02. Both of those could best be accounted for when you consider a batting average on balls in play of just .204. A strand rate of 83 percent helped, too. While he wasn't striking out a bunch, he wasn't issuing a lot of free passes either.
This year his ERA has more than doubled to 4.82, in part because his luck come back to earth. Actually, he's even gone past that point, now he's maybe even getting unlucky (.354). But what's concerning is this: He's both walking nearly twice as many baserunners (6.27 per nine innings) and giving up line drives at twice the rate (24 percent) as he did last year.
Now of course, I'll give the standard warning: Relievers pitch a comparatively small amount of innings so small variations can be amplified.
This month for example, he's faced 11 batters. Six have gotten hits and one has walked. A bit of bad luck can make a big difference. So can some bad pitching. (Side note: I didn't notice it at the time but Ni went eight days between appearances. What's up with that?)
And like I've shown, there's some of that going on. Last month 11 of 28 batters got on base. In April, it was 16 of 51.
If Ni goes to Toledo, what happens? I'd say lefty reliever Daniel Schlereth might be the direction the Tigers would go.
Schlereth is striking out more than a batter an inning in Toledo right now (10.80 per nine innings). But like Ni, he's walking batters. A lot, actually (6.82 per nine innings). Meanwhile they're hitting a 20 percent line-drive rate off him. Of course, those numbers all look a lot better against left-handers. Unfortunately you can't assume manager Jim Leyland would use him strictly against lefties, either. Ni, for instance, faced three batters or fewer just three times in 19 games.
And interestingly enough, Ni's splits look similar to Schlereth's. He strikes out more than one lefty per inning and walks them at a rate of 4.32 per nine innings. His FIP is 2.89 and xFIP is 3.38.
So I'll ask you: Should Fu-Te Ni spend a little time in Triple-A Toledo to work things out? Should just pitch through it and wait to see if the luck evens out?
Or should Jim Leyland use him as he is designed: a lefty-specialist?
I think you can guess my answer to this question.
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Great article & an even better question
I’m a big fan of Ni but I agree with you that things havent looked pretty lately. I don’t think any of us thought that Ni would be as great as he was last year. However, he hasn’t even filled the “loogy” role that great this year.
Sure Schlereth is still walking a metric shit ton of batter but like you pointed out his strikeout rate is still through the roof. It isn’t a matter of “is he good enough?” it is more a matter of what schlereth will you get today. At any rate why not give the kid a chance? He is already on the 40 man roster & his upside is awesome.
I think you prove a great point too that it would benefit him greatly to be eased into the show. No high stress situations very late in games. Perhaps it would be a great tuneup for him.
Idk, just my opinion!
by JAYRC on Jun 22, 2010 6:59 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
He is being under used.
It is hard to stay sharp when you only pitch twice in a 2 week stretch. he just needs to be used a little more is all. That being said a trip to Toledo may help him out.
by BennieBladesFan on Jun 22, 2010 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions
Exactly
I’d argue that the bullpen was so good in April because all of those guys were in a good rhythm, being needed every other day or so. Now that our starters are going deeper into games, some of the guys are seeing less playing time and struggling accordingly.
Schlereth was epically rushed last year
It’s not going to hurt to leave him in Toledo a while unless he’s absolutely, positively needed. Arizona decided to have him work out his control issues in the majors (for a variety of reasons, mostly players injured/on leave) and it didn’t happen.
I would like to point out that Schlereth was never intended, at least by Arizona, to be a situational reliever/LOOGY, unless the situation was “closing a game at the bottom of the 9th.” One simply does not draft a LOOGY in the first round.
The most important things for a reliever are to throw strikes and keep it in the yard
Thus, I have no desire to see a pitcher called up who can’t keep it in the zone against AAA hitters to the tune of 24 walks in 30 innings. No thank you. That’s horrendous.
I don’t know if Ni needs to do down. Probably wouldn’t hurt, but I don’t think there’s a pressing need like with Porcello or Scherzer. But keep in mind, they already have 2 other LH relievers on the team, so they would have no real need to replace Ni with a lefty. They could easily replace him with Fien or another righty and not miss a beat.
I am mix reactions about fu-te-ni sented him to toledo but it would help but, he need more work pitching he only has on average every 8th he comes in to game, leyland should work him alot more than him does,I wrote yesterday, about NI going to AAA , but I am not sure?.. undecide, but, my opinion is used him every 4th day in either, 6th, 7th , instead of every 8th day, when tigers have need for reliever like NI!
by '' spiderman '' on Jun 22, 2010 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Keep him up
Ni is supposed to be a LOOGy, yet as you pointed out, Kurt, he’s been facing a whole heckuva lot of RH batters. Leyland did this a lot with Bobby Seay in years past and also does this with Coke so there’s no reason to think he would use Schlereth strictly versus LH batters, either. To me, it’s not a matter of Ni needing to spent time in the minors, he just needs to spend time pitching to LH batters instead of righties.
As Nick pointed out above, having Coke and Thomas already in the ‘pen would allow him to be replaced with a RHP if they decide to go that route, but I think it’s more a question of how the manager is using him then a question of where he should be assigned.
Agree.
While Schlereth is by all accounts the most talented reliever in Toledo, we shouldn’t assume that the demotion of one LHP from Detroit automatically means that a different LHP from Toledo must be promoted.
While not on the 40-man, and also on the DL currently, I’d like to see Robbie Weinhardt up at some point this year prior to September 1st.
"All aboard!"
Boesch Bandwagon Conductor
Something will have to give before Oliver starts on Friday, could it be Ni?
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LOOGY means lefty that gets out lefties.
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by David Tokarz on Jun 22, 2010 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions
He just may.
I do however think he isnt used enough and maybe gets a little rusty. He didnt pitch once at all in a 7 day stretch. Think he just needs more work.
by BennieBladesFan on Jun 22, 2010 10:24 AM EDT reply actions
We've been winning lately, that's why he's been sitting.
He pitches mostly when we are behind.
this was like 2 weeks ago.
Im not saying he should pitch everyday im just saying he needs more work to be effective. Like any reliever.
by BennieBladesFan on Jun 22, 2010 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions
His Stuff isn't that good and that has caught up to him
He did well in 09, but this year is a different story. We need Seay back.
Actaully His Stuff Is Pretty Good.
Nice sweeping breaking ball and his fastball is good becasue you cant pick it up very well becasue of his delivery.
by BennieBladesFan on Jun 22, 2010 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions
I never thought Ni was any good
Just by looking at him throw makes me think that any success he has depends on deception and pinpoint control. By looking at his stats you can tell his control isn’t half as good as last year, his walk rate per inning has doubled from .35 to .71 walks per inning.
Ni is one of the lowest men in the bullpens hierarchy. He’s being used as a low leverage pitcher when we don’t have much of a chance at winning. We have just 3 wins vs 15 defeats in games that he pitches. We had just 11wins vs 25 loses when we used him last season. So apparently Leyland never has had much confidence in him either.
maybe he should have the same confidence in Perry.
by BennieBladesFan on Jun 22, 2010 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions
jeez bennie
Perry was quite good for the first 6 or 7 weeks of the season, had a couple of struggles right before he hits the DL with pain. Give him a break.
by Kurt Mensching on Jun 22, 2010 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Perry was rushed too soon
I like his K per inning but I don’t like him giving up a hit per inning either.
Unless someone in AAA starts pitching like a crazy shutdown reliever
I don’t see any real need to make a move. The day where a low-leverage LOOGY is worth worrying about will be a wonderful, wonderful day for the Tigers.
I think Ni should stay at least for a bit
To be honest with you, I thought as soon as Miner or Seay came up from the DL, I thought the tigers would release B. Thomas. He didnt impress me in spring training or at the beggining of the season. But as you know Seay/Miner have’nt come off the DL and we kept Thomas. After a rough start I think he’s done a decent job. My point is, Thomas got through his rough start and I think Ni could come around as well. Ni had a very good year last year, and, was a big part of the those late inning come from behind wins in April and early May. So i think we should ride him out as long as we can afford to. As far as him or relievers being rusty because they havent pitched? I dont buy in to that theory either. Its thier job to come in and throw strikes (if possible) no matter when called on. Besides they have side sessions to stay loose not to mention the times they warm up in the bullpen but not get in the game because a lefty was called in instead of a righty and vice versa.
Brad Thomas still doesn’t throw enough strikes for my liking. I’m surprised he’s still around, although as you pointed out he has done a better job since a brutal first month of the season. The lack of options keeps Thomas with the Tigs for now and the same may hold true for Ni.
Zac
"MotorCityBengals.com":http://motorcitybengals.com
FU-TE-NI
after viewing Ni’s stats for 2010 – I can see Leyland’s point he has no confidence in him 3% of the time this year Leyland used Ni no wonder beside, look at Ni’s stats……2009; k/9- 6 bb/9- 3 k/bb- 2 hr/9- 1 ave- .186 0f op whip- 1.00 babip- .208 lob- 83% now compare it to to current year 2010; k/9- 9 bb/9- 6 k/bb-1 hr/9- 1 ave- *.285 whip- *1.82 babip- *.354 lob- *73%……… you be the judge! he isn’t pitching well at all compared with last years, my prognosis is maybe he should take trip to Toledo, not a bad idea to workout things!
by '' spiderman '' on Jun 22, 2010 2:06 PM EDT reply actions
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