EVERYBODY PANIC!!! One week of bad baseball does not a season make
by BigAl on Jul 21, 2010 12:43 PM EDT
in Detroit Tigers Analysis
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PrintIf a Hollywood writer had scripted the Tigers' rapid fall from grace over the past week, even the most hacky of producers would have said, "No,no, no! This is too much for audiences to handle! Tone it down! No team in playoff contention would play that badly!"
You want to push the big, shiny panic button, don't you?
Unfortunately, as we've seen with our own disbelieving eyes, this past week wasn't the result of a screenwriter's imagination. The Tigers are playing that badly. As in "I'm having second thoughts about this team remaining in contention" badly. As in "This team can't buy a clue, let alone be buyers at the trade deadline" badly. As in "Blow the team up" badly.
Then I remember it's been less than a week of bad, if not rotten, baseball. Let me repeat that, LESS THAN A WEEK.
Almost all teams go through such stretches, even good ones. It's only seven of 162 games.
It's time to talk myself off the ledge.
Our fearless leader at BYB has often said no team is as bad as they look during a losing streak, or as good as they appear to be during a winning streak. We need to keep Kurt's mantra in mind.
The Tigers are not this bad.
Even though I have my issues with Jim Leyland (his lineups against the Indians Saturday night and Sunday left plenty to be desired), I have to agree with him when it comes to his team. When asked about having a team meeting after last night's loss, Leyland shot it down immediately.
"I don't think so," he said. "That all reads good. The fans like it. But if we have to have a lot of meetings, it usually means you're a bad team -- and we're not a bad team."
The Marlboro Man is spot on, if a little nicotine addled. The Tigers are not a bad team. They just aren't playing well at the moment. (OK, using the term "not playing well" is a bit of an understatement. A more apt description is to say they're playing like the 2003 Tigers...)
As Leyland also said last night, they are one well pitched game away from breaking out of their funk.
"But it's a matter of some pitcher going out and sticking it to the other team."
That's a bingo!
The Tigers actually have a pair of pitchers more than capable of "sticking it to the other team" in Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer. If last Saturday is any indication, Rick Porcello can turn a pair into trips. The bullpen is starting to show some strain, yet they are still doing a solid job picking up the starters.
Could the Tigers have gotten some better performances on the mound during the losing streak? Sure. But they've also thrown well enough to win a few...such as Armando Galarraga did last night.. The pitching isn't why the Tigers are doing their best imitation of a team in a death spiral.
Instead, blame an offense hitting .196 with RISP over the last seven games.
But this the same offense with a Triple Crown and MVP candidate in Miguel Cabrera batting cleanup. You no longer have fans complaining about Magglio Ordonez's contract vesting, as he can still hit the ball with authority. Despite their recent struggles, Johnny Damon, Brennan Boesch and Austin Jackson are still getting on base.
Yes, the bottom of the order is still a black hole of suck, and has gotten even suckier with the loss of Brandon Inge. No matter how good he is with the glove, losing a .263 hitting Inge shouldn't end the Tigers' chances at contending. If it is, then they were just pretenders all along.
Admittedly, Dave Dombrowski has his work cut out for him over the next ten days. Their are some roster holes the size of a '57 Buick Roadmaster, but those holes can be bondo'ed. (No, not that Bondo, this bondo) Dombrowski has a flawed team on his hands, but the Tigers play in a flawed division. The brass ring is there for the taking. Hell, they're only 3 1/2 games out of of first. The Tigers can't be sellers at the trade deadline, despite what columnists like Lynn Henning believe.
Playing for the future is utter lunacy when you're a franchise with all of five playoff appearances in 42 years. When you're in the hunt, and the Tigers are in the hunt despite their current struggles, you cannot throw in the towel.
I get just as disgusted with the Tigers' bad play as the rest of you. But this too shall pass...like a huge kidney stone...but it will pass.
The Tigers were in first place not much more than a week ago. An entire season doesn't pinwheel around to the point of writing the year off and blowing up the roster in 6 days. So get your fingers off the panic button!
I'm not waving the white flag. Nor should you. More importantly, neither should the Tigers.
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I read that line as
“Communists such as Henning”. and now I can’t stop giggling.
Blatant Twitter Promotion
by rock n rye on Jul 21, 2010 12:51 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Ah, glad to see cooler heads prevailing today
I’m certainly not ready to give up. That is for sure. Onwards, boys!
Doña of the VZ Mafia
by SabreRoseTiger on Jul 21, 2010 12:55 PM EDT reply actions
The Dodgers haven't won a game since the ASB either
I still like them to win the division.
I love the panic button
Glad to see its return, Big Al.
by Ian Casselberry on Jul 21, 2010 1:03 PM EDT reply actions
You're like two steps away from Kevin Bacon in 'Animal House'
by Ian Casselberry on Jul 21, 2010 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions
it's an illusion. this thread is being re-posted from 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009...
Ian isn’t really here. that would be impossible
he used the 5 minutes of alloted internet time each week
North Carolina gets when its mice run in a wheel in order to make contact with us.
How sweet!
by Kurt Mensching on Jul 21, 2010 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Whoa, North Carolina is not a backwards state.
They’re up to cats on a treadmill, thank you very much.
Ryan Raburn antagonist.
Scott Sizemore liberationist.
Funny, Kurt.
Assist. Editor, Minor League Division, Bless You Boys
Free Scott Sizemore.
by David Tokarz on Jul 21, 2010 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Who is going to give the "Over? Nothing is over until we say it's over?" speech to rally the troops?
My two favorite teams are the Tigers and Brewers. Drunk tigers. That sounds about right.
Me in 140 characters
I try to keep from using the panic button too often, as it has great power, Ian
After 7 consecutive losses, it seemed like the perfect time to break it out.
I'm owner/editor of The Wayne Fontes Experience a deputy editor at Bless You Boys and co-host The Knee Jerks podcast.
No Panic
We are who we thought we were. An average team not lined up to make a run this year. SELL
I clicked the panic button, but nothing happened
Where’s my bells, my whistles, my people running around all higgledy-piggledy waving their arms madly in the air?
Official BYB Juju Consultant...now accepting rally creature applications!
I was hoping it'd take me to instantrimshot.com or something
Director of the 2010 Free Casper Wells campaign
No Run Support
More likely to any random game thread on this website when the Tigers fall behind for five minutes!
(includes self in that comment! )
The "best" part about this losing streak
Is they we are still only 3.5 games back. There is plenty of time to make up ground.
Without our starting 3B
And with holes everywhere else in the IF.
Assist. Editor, Minor League Division, Bless You Boys
Free Scott Sizemore.
by David Tokarz on Jul 21, 2010 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions
You mean the 3B with a 101 RC+?
And a 2.2 UZR/150? Dude’s hardly irreplaceable. I think Guillen at third and Sizemore at second is better than Inge at third and Guillen at second.
He was on pace for 3 WAR this year
Can you find a 3 WAR third baseman on this roster? A 2 WAR third baseman?
Assist. Editor, Minor League Division, Bless You Boys
Free Scott Sizemore.
by David Tokarz on Jul 21, 2010 7:17 PM EDT up reply actions
So buy high on a bunch of players from TOR
Assist. Editor, Minor League Division, Bless You Boys
Free Scott Sizemore.
by David Tokarz on Jul 22, 2010 12:31 AM EDT up reply actions
not if,
they continue to leave guys stranded on base, It’s so frustarating when one sees these problems b4 the season starts, yet little or nothing is done to improve the situation, & this seems to happen every year after the all star break, so…not sue what else to expect.
Sorry guy's I already punched out
look at the 2nd half of the season for 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009. Hurts to much to watch…
here are my $.02 worth on the race right now (Tigers win!)
This is still a 2 team race and the Tigers are in it with the Twins. I don’t see the CWS as hanging in there. Here’s why…
The Sux have had an amazing July (OPS of .909, wOBA of .388) but that is a huge improvement from the first 3 months of the season. The Tigers are at .850 and .369 (respectively) but they have been near those levels already in the season. The Twins are at .746 and .321- again more in line and actually a little lower than earlier this year.
The Sux starters also have an incredible improvement in WHIP (1.11) and BABIP (2.55) The Tigers are at 1.44 WHIP and .336 BABIP. The Twins are 1.44 and 3.39. Again, these are more consistent with previous results.
So I believe that the Sux are going to see a depressing regression to their mean here fairly soon. The Twins are Tigers will also, but it will be more pleasant. Thus creating a two horse race in a weak division.
I still believe that the Tigers are a little bit better than .500 team, but that is enough to win the ALC.
btw- all of my figures are from fangraphs and all are based on figures at the All Star break. they don’t include the past week of woe.
The 2003 team's record was 43-119. Already 48-44!!
It is reassuring (?) to know that we could loose every game for the rest of the season and still have a better record than 2003!!
Delaware Gary
I just get depressed.
We wouldn’t have even made the Western Conference playoffs for the NBA…sigh.
My two favorite teams are the Tigers and Brewers. Drunk tigers. That sounds about right.
Me in 140 characters
When gravity fails . . .
. . . negativity won’t pull you through.
Just sayin’ . . .
It feels like Toy Story in here
Optimists (Buzz): Sheriff, this is no time to panic!
Pessimists (Woody): This is the perfect time to panic!
My two favorite teams are the Tigers and Brewers. Drunk tigers. That sounds about right.
Me in 140 characters
I just asked my dad if he plans to do spring training again next year
(I’m a planner and vacation time drainer, what can I say)
him: “well, at this rate they aren’t ever going to win another game, so I don’t know”
me: “but dad, spring training is a time of magical beginnings”
him: “I guess. god they suck right now”
ha ha.
Director of the 2010 Free Casper Wells campaign
No Run Support
Blame my Pessimism on Bill James
In his analysis of the1984 season, he stated that he should have seen the Tigers coming after a few weeks. Bad teams don’t go on winning streaks like they did. He went on to show how statistically significant these winning and losing streaks are. If my memory serves me right the 2010 Tigers have had several losing streaks of 5 or more games and only one winning streak. I suspect that that is significant. My gut feeling also tells me that this team is not quite as good as last year’s and is likely to fall short of last year’s performance. I wish I could be more optimistic.
"I have seen the future, and it is much like the present, only longer" - Dan Quisenberry
Darn near impossible, given the winning record
Subject refers to my immediate reaction to the assertion that this year there have alrady been “several” 5 game losing streaks, and only one such winning streak.
But I wasn’t sure, so I took a peek at the schedule on baseball-reference.com, which has a handy column with plusses and minuses representing wins or losses in a row, and my initial reaction was justified.
Prior to this current slip and slide, the Tigers had one 4 game losing streak (May 25-29), and one three game losing streak (April 14-17). And on the good side, no less than three 5 game winning streaks, including one immediately preceding the current losing streak.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/DET/2010-schedule-scores.shtml
Official BYB Juju Consultant...now accepting rally creature applications!
Curious to hear how that affects your pessimism
If you were to say the team is overachieving, or, rather, was overachieving, I’d agree with that sentiment. That said, if your pessimism was partially based on a mistaken impression of more bad streaks than good, does the opposite being true make you feel any better?
Official BYB Juju Consultant...now accepting rally creature applications!
Yes, Thank You.
Absolutely does make me feel better. I’m getting old but didn’t think I was getting that old :-)
"I have seen the future, and it is much like the present, only longer" - Dan Quisenberry
no panic
no panic, not giving up, if fact i am going to tonights game – but I want to see something done by management.
Leyland says no to a team meeting – NO, I am too lazy to stand up and talk for 5 minutes to “my” team. FAIL
If your car didnt start for 7 days in a row when you were supposed to be going to work, would you just say, oh well, i guess I’ll sit here and try the same thing tomorrow- don’t fix it, after all it worked a couple weeks back.
I do not play fantasy GM like some on here, but I hope to see some action from DD. And that doesnt mean gut the future like some on here exaggerate would happen with any trade.
Leyland's "no meeting" policy doesn't bother me...
Fixing a flawed team is on Dombrowski. He’s got to find a way to plug holes, as Leyland can only do so much. I hate his batting orders, sometimes question his strategy, but he’s fine at running a team.
Leyland has offensive train wrecks at catcher and shortstop, and his starting 3B is on the DL. Rookies are playing full time at vital positions, as no one else has stepped up. His 2 set up men blew up (Zoom’s arm and Perry’s ERA). Leyland can only do so much.
As you said, we need to see some action from DD.
I'm owner/editor of The Wayne Fontes Experience a deputy editor at Bless You Boys and co-host The Knee Jerks podcast.
To quote Ozzie Guillen...
Good teams win game. Horse*&^% teams have meetings.
A meeting won’t plug the holes, throw quality strikes, or catch the ball.
Someone has to throw a shutout or hit three bombs. That’s what breaks teams out of tailspins, not meetings.
Max, your turn, fella. 3 hit shutout. You have the stuff.
chi sox
do you think the white sox turnaround came about with ozzie saying nothing and doing nothing different?
hmmm?
Must've been that sensitivity training class that Selig ordered him to take
by Tigerdog1 on Jul 21, 2010 10:00 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
As I'm in Chicago, I can attest to this:
No one at 35 & Shields panicked. They all figured their players would come back to form (Rios, Quentin, Jenks) and that the bounces would reverse. They were right. The only player that hasn’t come back to his previous self is Beckham, and he’s a kid.
Ozzie loathes meetings. He had a few minor blasts but nothing of epic proportions by his standards. He’s been on fairly good behavior. He directed a few shots at his GM, but that’s how those two guys say hello.
The Sox stayed the course and let the percentages play out. They had that luxury as they hit the skids early in the season, rather than the middle like the Tigers.
But meetings, for the express purpose of going over bad things when everyone’s well aware of said bad things, serve little purpose other than giving the press something to write about and making fans feel better.
This isn’t high school.
actions
don’t misunderstand, i wasn’t advocating team meetings as a solution.
I was b*tchin’ that Leyland wasn’t willing to do ANYthing different. I really don’t respect people who find 100 reasons to do nothing to contribute to solving problems.
Finally he sat Boesch for a game. Finally they called up Sizemore to replace Inge in a roundabout way. At least that is one iota of effort. (and thank you Gerald Laird).
Leyland having a team meeting to solve all the problems
is like fixing your car by washing it and getting a new air freshener.
Sizemore recalled
New to the site and was uncertain where to post new info, but MLB. com is reporting that Scott Sizemore was recalled today
welcome aboard
Here’s as good a place as any to start with.
If you take a look at the front page, though, over on the right sidebar, SBNation has a mechanism called “fanshots” for posting quick updates, and “fanposts” for longer, more fleshed out thoughts. Next time you have a burning bit of information, toss it in one of those.
Official BYB Juju Consultant...now accepting rally creature applications!
Actually, go ahead and toss up a fanshot now
Since all our mods seem to be busy with work or something. Official_Tigers seems to have tweeted that info an hour ago.
Official BYB Juju Consultant...now accepting rally creature applications!
Nothing is over!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=71vqGyWTs3c&feature=related
Official BYB Juju Consultant...now accepting rally creature applications!
Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?
Sorry, someone had to say it.
by handsomerob1 on Jul 21, 2010 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions
There never was much hope.
Just a fool’s hope.
This is the part of the movie where you’re supposed to realize that the good guys can still win, but the chances of that happening are not good. This thing could. magically. work.
On the other hand, a big mother-fucking spider could appear in a cave at the entrance to Ohio and eat one of our ring-toting Hobbits, and then the craven, sun-hating Minnesota Gollums will get it back (like having the AL Central ring for 500 years hasn’t been long enough), or worse, the ring could fall back into the hands of the evil SaurOzzie in his fortress of Comisk’Dur U.S. Cellular Tower.
We’re now one bona fide Carlos Guillen kneecap away from replacement-level players at every infield spot (including catcher) except 1st base. Losing Zumaya (2.5 games in half a season) was a bigger hit than Inge, but want of Inge will cost us, in WAR, another game.
I don’t think we’ll lose another 8 games in a row. But I neither do I hink this team will go .500 the rest of the season. Not that I can stop watching. But my expectations were just-below .500 at the end of the season, and they remain there.
I am rather pleased that this team is in contention, that Leyland has a Pythagorean 45-47 team four games over .500, and 3 1/2 out of going to the playoffs.
But this is an average to below-average team.
I don’t see why calling it that should be portrayed as “throwing in the towel.” It’s not 2002-04. No white flag has been raised. We may have a Denethor or two running around yelling “TRADE YOUR STARS; FLEEEE FOR YOUR LIVES” but c’mon, everyone’s got a Denethor — nobody really cares what he thinks. Whack him in the head with your wizard staff, set him on fire, and pitch him off a cliff: nobody cares.
I will root for these guys to fight and fight and pull off an even bigger World Series upset than the ’06 Cardinals (Pyth W/L: 82-79, the worst, by far, team to ever win a championship…..[insert expression of absolute pain]). But to characterize our team as anything but that is delusional kool-aid on cornbread dipped in Mitch Albom Treacle.
Trading for a big piece right now could make a big difference. As I mentioned, the position groups are over half made of above-average to great players (Boesch-Damon-Jackson-Magglio-Cabby). Then there’s Guillen, and replacement-level players (Avila/Laird-Kelly/Sizemore-Santiago).
Starting pitching has potential: Verlander is an ace on virtually any staff, Scherzer and Porcello are both at least capable of generating 5.0 WAR apiece over the 2nd half. Bondo and Armando can hang in there. It’s the bullpen that’s scary. Does Bonine still exist? I think I’ve seen him all of four times this month. That’s a credit to the starters, but, um, your 2.80 ERA reliever should be out there more than once every other series, amirite?
But the point is we started thin and any more damage, be it Porcello still not getting it together, or Bonderman turning into License to Kill (the 2nd Half of the Season) Agent 038 Bondo, or cats-forbid, the loss of Valverde or any of the afore mentioned good to great ballplayers, and we have another serious regression.
As it stands, this team is below-average, and situationally strong enough to (a relative consistency under Leyland) perform above their Pythagorean W-L. So say this is a team that will finish around .500, losing 4 more games than they win the rest of the season. We need a WAR bump of 4.0 to hold steady, and another bump of 4.0 to 8.0 to win this division.
4.0 to 12.0 is a lot. It’s not insurmountable, but it’s statistically unlikely. Saying “it’s over” when we’re 3.5 games out in July is plain stupid. But so is expecting these Tigers to win it without some drastic shift like a trade for Haren and J.D. Drew, plus a 2nd half revelation from Sizemore and Porcello, and maybe a nice non-life-threatening injury to Joe Mauer, and a ChiSox implosion.
No, it ain’t over. But we’re up against a mountain wall with all of Sauron’s armies advancing, and praying a little Hobbit can march in Mordor without anyone noticing.
L'Équipe! L'Équipe! L'Équipe!
The '87 Twins had a pyth. record of 79-83
Obviously, the Tigers need to avoid playing bad teams in the postseason.
by ChrisDTX on Jul 21, 2010 5:39 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
How did I miss that?
Great grab. I can’t believe I missed that.
Yet……DOUBLE UNGH!!!! You kiddin me? We lost two magical teams in my living memory to the two worst World Series winners ever?
UNGHHHH!!!! ‘87 was like MY YEAR. I got into baseball that year. Like got in hardcore. I was 4 for ’84. I didn’t realize the Twins were THAT bad.
UNNNNNNNNNGGGGGGGGGGH
L'Équipe! L'Équipe! L'Équipe!
That season
was the opening salvo in 20+ years of Twins hatred. I hate them so much, I refuse to watch that Schwarzeneggar/DeVito vehicle from that era.
by ChrisDTX on Jul 21, 2010 5:49 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
1987 still bothers me.
I loathe the Twins for that series.
Ryan Raburn antagonist.
Scott Sizemore liberationist.
Personally I like 1987
seeing how I didn’t exist before then.
by handsomerob1 on Jul 21, 2010 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Because of 1987, I will HATE the Twins to my dying day
I'm owner/editor of The Wayne Fontes Experience a deputy editor at Bless You Boys and co-host The Knee Jerks podcast.
Don't Blame '87 on the Twins
Detroit shot its wad and 19 years of luck getting by the Blue Jays in the last series of the year. That series was like the pennant and world series combined. After that, the poor Tigers were worn out physically and mentally.
by watsonstclair on Jul 21, 2010 11:26 PM EDT up reply actions
I have no use for people
who call it a season when they are 3.5 games back with over two months to go. If last year taught us anything, it’s that a lead like that can be frittered away in 4 days. Imagine if the Sox go 4-6 over their next 10 games while the Tigers go 7-3. Not unreasonable, and that makes them virtually tied.
by ChrisDTX on Jul 21, 2010 5:35 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
I have no use for people
Would have been an awesome, awesome post.
It's not that I don't like people.
I feel better when they’re not around.
by ChrisDTX on Jul 21, 2010 5:40 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
tigers might not be "favored to win" for the next month
just saying
they could go on a roll too though
by redwingxviii on Jul 21, 2010 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions
The Tigers will win tonight
Of this, I feel confident.
by ChrisDTX on Jul 21, 2010 5:50 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
The Tigers are winners, according to their mothers.
Ryan Raburn antagonist.
Scott Sizemore liberationist.
Can I have some of whatever is giving you that confidence?
Official BYB Juju Consultant...now accepting rally creature applications!
Bushmills Irish Whiskey
available at finer taverns and saloons.
by ChrisDTX on Jul 21, 2010 6:08 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
What they need to do...
Is break into a rendition of “I will survive” including a team bulldog wearing a Tiger’s sweater who keeps putting his paws over his eyes during the dance sequences.
Sick
The Tigers have just jumped in front of the Rangers by the 188 batting average Laird hitting a home run. We in are in trouble, guys!
give up?
No way in hell I’m giving up now inge is gone for a while and now we will hopefully see how replacable he is. Get Larrish up here for a shot and if not Kelly will do better too. This broken hand is the one thing that will keep inge from hitting closer to 175 than 275 because if we’re lucky enough he won’t get enough plate appearences to fade that far as he always does.Good riddance inge
Need a power hitter now!! Go and get a power hitter and shortstop, come on D.D. now is time to make the move spend some money and a
Front line Pitcher for a power hitter and shortstop and a good 3rd. baseball hitter,a power hitter, make a big trade Bonderman,Pertiocello, and Carlos G. for a shortstop and power hitter. Now or never, because it will be too late next year, your players will be older and then it will be too late.
Trade Maggio,Carlos and Bondy, Petro, and for cubs, they have some good players, or
Make your move now Dave D. G.M. now while you can get something for them, we need 3rd.and s.s. and power hitter. Make the move now, talk to all clubs, and see what you can get.
The Tigers don't need another power bat.
They are not strong at SS, 3B or the rotation. No one will take Magglio, Carlos or Bonderman for anything worthwhile.
The Cubs have little to offer.
Ryan Raburn antagonist.
Scott Sizemore liberationist.
Who
are Petro and Pertiocello? Do we have an Italian minor league affiliate I haven’t heard about?
by handsomerob1 on Jul 22, 2010 9:10 AM EDT up reply actions
Tigers went 11 days without winning a game
A championship team does not lose 7 games in a row. A champ will find a way to win before than.
by Mona Helgesen Biehl on Jul 23, 2010 11:29 PM EDT reply actions
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