On Adam Dunn: Just Say No!
by Kurt Mensching on Jul 27, 2010 12:20 PM EDT
in Detroit Tigers Analysis
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The Tigers just got no-hit for the first time in 20 years. Their lineup features several light-hitting infielders and the key outfielder was just lost for 6-8 weeks. Slugger Adam Dunn -- and his .935 OPS, .395 wOBA -- is on the trade market. Put two and two together, as many Tigers fans have done, and you get four.
Unfortunately, I come up with three.
As in, a trade for Dunn really doesn't make the Tigers organization better in the long run and the likelihood of winning the division even with him is so low as to make little sense. That's why a trade for starting pitcher Dan Haren would have made good sense. Not only does he make your team better in 2010, he makes it better in 2011, and 2012 and possibly 2013. All the while at below-market prices.
What it comes down to: Dunn is a rental. For a team with the odds of winning a division so stacked against it even Las Vegas thinks it's unfair. Remind me: What, exactly, is the positive in giving up prospects at this point in time?
After this season, Dunn is a free agent in a market devoid of many big-name players. Those who think the Tigers will get some sort of "current team discount" are not thinking realistically. So there's little value to be gained. The baseball market is going to pay him what he's worth. There's no surplus value to be had that way. Sure, if he signs somewhere else you get two draft picks -- IF he is offered arbitration, and IF he declines it, both of which seem likely but are not givens -- but what's the point in trading two prospects now in order to have two prospects who will take several years to develop?
You know me. I am not a prospect hoarder. I'm more open to trades than most. I don't believe in untouchables. I just don't see why you'd give up assets who could be useful in putting together a team in 2011 in order to make the final two months of 2010 not hurt quite so much.
Buck up. Ride it out. By October we'll know a lot more about the team and who to count on in the future, and so will President/GM Dave Dombrowski.
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I'd be a lot more interested in Dunn
If he didn’t have a reputation for hating DHing. He’s got no place to play at 1st, and I don’t want him patrolling the outfield and negating his offensive value. (seriously, he really does)
I’m with you, Kurt. I’d much rather just ride this likely horrible second half out, and see what we have for the future. We had our shot be competitive this year, and in the future with Haren and we blew it. No reason to make a panic move and hurt ourselves even more.
by ozymandius1024 on Jul 27, 2010 12:41 PM EDT reply actions
Conflicted...
Half of me wants them to make a playoff push, and the other half wants them to continue to trot out their Triple A affiliate and lose so that we get within the Top 15 draft picks. That way, in the offseason, we can sign a Type A without losing a pick! (I am a prospect hoarder…)
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by DetroitTigersGeek on Jul 27, 2010 12:58 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
I'm with you
If we can tank to .500, we get a protected first rounder. I like that.
Assist. Editor, Minor League Division, Bless You Boys
Daniel Fields is better than you.
by David Tokarz on Jul 27, 2010 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Question
If there was a window for negotiation, and a high likelihood that an extension could be reached, and he was willing to DH, would you?
As things currently stand, however, I totally agree. Unless there are a couple of really good deals to be had, the best thing right now is to let the AAAA guys play, and see what positions absolutely need to be filled externally in the off season, and which can be filled from within. By my count, 1B and CF are the only spots on this team that are absolutely spoken for next year. Probably RF too, be it Magglio or Boesch.
Yes, I do.
I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again. LH bat + massive power + high OBP makes Dunn a great fit…if he agrees to DH.
Defensively, Dunn makes Raburn look like Austin Jackson, But I love his bat.
I'm owner/editor of The Wayne Fontes Experience a deputy editor at Bless You Boys and co-host The Knee Jerks podcast.
is that a serious question?
Of course if those were to fall into place you trade for him. But they won’t.
by BeardedPlayoffJesus19 on Jul 27, 2010 1:05 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Course it's serious
Dunn requires at least an Oliver+ type package. Probably a lot more. He has a skill set that tends to not age well. He going to want at least 3/36.
The new GM in DC looks much like the old, drunk one that got fired.
You know, the one that held out and held out on Alfonso Soriano, then got stuck holding the bag with him? Time after time, they set their asking prices so high, that no deal got done. Same could happen with Dunn, and Capps, and Willingham.
is that a serious question?
Of course if those were to fall into place you trade for him. But they won’t.
by BeardedPlayoffJesus19 on Jul 27, 2010 1:05 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I like Dunn
Having watched him plenty here in DC. I know our team has some serious flaws, but the Twins and White Sox have their issues as well. 3 games is not unsurmountable. Heck, it’s JULY! We may have some terrible hitters in the lineup, but we also have the best hitter in baseball, two legit aces, and perhaps the best closer this year.
There are no guarantees our future teams will be in the running. This is a real chance, so if Dunn, or another good hitter, can be had for a reasonable price, I think you’ve got to take the deal and give your team the best chance to win.
On a side note, with Maggs’ option not kicking in now, we definitely had enough money to be competitive next year for Dunn. Plus, his current team WILL have an advantage in the bidding, because other teams will have to factor in the loss of draft picks into their cost analysis.
A lifelong Tigers fan
Just take a look at the class of free agents for 2011 and 2012
Not too many impact players. I have no idea who they plan on batting ahead of Cabrera for the next couple of years but both Magglio and Damon will be 37 next year if we decide to bring them back. We have one the best hitters in the game right now, lets not limit his effectiveness by not putting the right offensive pieces around him. Get Dunn before he is traded and signs an extension with another team (probably the White Sox). Get Crawford in free agency. We have Verlander, Scherzer, and Porcello under all under team control until at least 2014. Go for it now!
by ryan_matthews28 on Jul 27, 2010 1:29 PM EDT reply actions
Exactly
It’s not that I think Dunn is the perfect answer. But my question is, “if not Dunn, then who?”
The hard reality is we will have to trade for a good bat if we want one, because there just aren’t many good free agent hitters coming up.
A lifelong Tigers fan
Maybe
See if Manny Ramirez is ok with DHing? The power may not still be there as much (not even close), but the guy is still putting up an OPS+ north of 150.
by ozymandius1024 on Jul 27, 2010 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions
pass on Dunn
But if Willingham’s available I’d be more than happy to see that happen
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by rock n rye on Jul 27, 2010 1:32 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Dunn's okay but not worth trading for, if you ask me.
I liked him enough in Cincinnati but just don’t think he’s going to be of much use in the short term and probably not going to be around for the long term.
Ryan Raburn antagonist.
Scott Sizemore liberationist.
Maybe you're willing to ride it out
But how much longer for Cabrera? I don’t see him wasting his prime wallowing in mediocrity. Just look at A-Rod.
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by Terrence J. Lynch on Jul 27, 2010 1:39 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
if they are smat
they save their trade assets for the winter meetings, and through a combination of trades and all the money are able to upgrade several positions above the level they are at this year.
The team will be better in 2011. There’s no doubt in my mind.
by Kurt Mensching on Jul 27, 2010 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd take Fielder and Cabrera as 3-4 for the next decade
Nice to dream at least
by ryan_matthews28 on Jul 27, 2010 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions
That would be awesome.
I’d suspect the Brew Crew would need one of our top 3 pitching prospects though.
I agree next year should be better
And I also agree that trading is, unfortunately, going to have to be the road to competitiveness for the Tigers. I’m of the opinion if we are going to trade, go ahead and do it now, so you can be competitive this year and next.
A lifelong Tigers fan
I never liked Dunn
Even with all his HR’s and walks, he’s still never been on a team with a winning record. Cincinatti always had some pretty good players too. It doesn’t surprise me to see them finally be on the winning side this season now that Dunn is out of the picture.
My thought is that when Dunn walks, he literally clogs up the bases. He’s likely not scoring from 1B on a base hit.. A good chunk of his runs scored come from his very own Home runs. He’s a 1B too. We already got Cabrera. He already got enough slow footed players also.
Give me a slow runner with 40 hr power and a high OBP anytime
This is the AL, you win with powerful bats. It would be great if you could find Dunn’s power and Austin Jackson’s speed in the same player, but they are rarer than a Gerald Laird base hit.
And you can’t hold his playing for the Red and Nats against him. Both have been very poorly run franchises.
I'm owner/editor of The Wayne Fontes Experience a deputy editor at Bless You Boys and co-host The Knee Jerks podcast.
I really really really hate the "clogging the bases" mentality
The dude has still scored 33 runs aside from the times he’s come in from his own HRs. As long as you’re not batting him leadoff or something, I really don’t see the problem.
by ozymandius1024 on Jul 27, 2010 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions
"He’s likely not scoring from 1B on a base hit."
Damn few players in baseball can be counted on to score from 1B on a base hit.
No thanks on Dunn
If we’re gonna splurge for him, might as well make it worth our while and throw in a few bigger named prospectes and get Prince Fielder. Fielder protecting Cabrera is exactly what we need
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I would make a trade for Dunn, under the right circumstances.
Translation: any prospect(s) not named Turner, Oliver, or Fields.
This just in: Adam Dunn is a Type A free agent. That means he comes with a supplemental first round draft pick, AND another first or second round pick. Those picks alone are better than just about any of the remaining prospects in the Tiger system.
Ramirez? Strieby? Larish? What “future” are we talking about mortgaging here? I don’t see a future with most of these guys. Role players, maybe. But I’d rather take a couple of comp picks and make a run at this division that is still up for grabs this year.
Adam Dunn is among the top ten players in the game in total bases. He’s the perfect fit to bat in the 3 slot ahead of Cabrera. Plus, he’d see a lot of good pitches in that spot.
Yes, DD would have to offer him arbitration, and I have no problem with that. We know that DD is capable of screwing up and leaving comp picks laying on the table. He’s done it. But I’d make a trade for Dunn if the price isn’t a blue chipper, and then offer arbitration. I’d be happy if Dunn accepted or if he declined. He won’t cost as much as Ordonez, so there’s cash to spend on another player as well.
Tiger will not have a First round pick next year
When they sign a Type A player. So with Dunn you do get this back. Especially if the Tigers tank, we could be giving a top 12 pick. Tigers should be looking at LaRoche or Berkman just to try to save the season. There not as expensive as Dunn. Cantu would be cool too. That way losing a top 20 pick doesn’t hurt as much as a Top 12.
If they have a pick in the top 15
It’s protected from that.
by ozymandius1024 on Jul 27, 2010 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Who says the Tigers will sign a Type A player?
by handsomerob1 on Jul 27, 2010 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions
I think it's kind of a given at this point
Most of the FAs who are half way decent are Type A’s.
by ozymandius1024 on Jul 27, 2010 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Nothing is a given with DD writing the checks.
DD has traditionally cheaped out on free agent signings.
No team in the league has signed fewer free agents since 2006 than the Tigers.
No multi year free agents at all in that time frame until Valverde last winter.
Not one free agent during DD’s tenure in Detroit that I’d call “highly sought after”.
Sure, Pudge in 2004, and Ordonez in 2005 were big names, but those were desperation signings, and not competitive bidding situations. Since then, he’s signed Todd Jones, Adam Everett, Kenny Rogers, Brandon Lyon, and Francisco Cruceta to major league deals. He also extended Rogers, Everett, Jones, and Sean Casey. Then Valverde and Damon this winter, without any real bidding going on.
I’d love to have Crawford and Lee both. The compensation for the second Type A would be a second rounder, or a third if the first is protected. Having a couple of comp picks, like they had for Rodney and Lyon this past winter, could mitigate the damage from signing a Type A pick, as it did with Valverde. Now if he’d have offered arby to Polanco….
Tigers Done/Dunn
Dunn for free? I’d take him. Dunn for anything of any value whatsoever, meaning anything…no thanks. We’re done as it is this year, no need to make any trades in my book.
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If we trade for someone, then why not Chone Figgins?
Time to buy low on Figgins is right now.
After this season,
he has 3 years $26M left on his contract, with a vesting option for another year.
He’s 32 years old.
To elaborate:
Figgins is 32, he’s a lead off hitter, and… that’s really it; his contract is not good.
Ryan Raburn antagonist.
Scott Sizemore liberationist.
Still, he's a little younger than Inge
His UZR’s at 3B were tops. He still has blazing speed and he walks a ton. For you saberfolks, his current BABIP ( .288) is 50 points under his career average (.337).
We could just sign Adrian Beltre
Costs nothing but cash.
Assist. Editor, Minor League Division, Bless You Boys
Daniel Fields is better than you.
by David Tokarz on Jul 27, 2010 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Lots of things hurt Figgins.
A switch from 3B to 2B, some nagging injuries, bad luck at the plate, not having a bottom of the order that runs like he had under Scoscia, and being part of a putrid lineup in general.
He’s better than he has been this season, but not as good as he was in 2009.
Better than Inge? Definitely. I don’t think Seattle will trade him. More likely they move Lopez out and put Figgins back at third.
I like the Beltre idea, if he’s available. He wouldn’t even visit Detroit when he was a free agent before, but much has happened since those dark days.
The M's are looking more at trading Toad than Figgins.
Lopez makes quite a few mental mistakes.
Ryan Raburn antagonist.
Scott Sizemore liberationist.
You know what I love?
People that spend a year whining about how DD handed out bloated contracts for two years… and then suggest that what the Tigers need to do with payroll next year is hand out more large contracts (because, hell, it can’t happen to us again).
Ah, but prospects are too risky, you say. So do both- sign free agents and trade people to complement what you develop. Shame the farm system has been so devastated by big trades that the Tigers have approximately no depth (see what happens when you take away our slightly-above average 3B). I’m sure somebody will take that to mean that I think we shouldn’t have traded for Cabrera (wrongo), so let me clarify for the short term (I’ll have a very terse post up on Monday if Kurt will let me): YOU BUILD CHAMPIONSHIP CALIBER TEAMS BY drumroll DEVELOPING CHAMPIONSHIP CALIBER PLAYERS!!!
Cliff Lee for 15 million… please. More like 20 per and fervent prayers that nothing goes snap when he’s on the mound.
Assist. Editor, Minor League Division, Bless You Boys
Daniel Fields is better than you.
I like prospects and I like good contracts.
I don’t want to overspend or over estimate what is in the farm system.
Ryan Raburn antagonist.
Scott Sizemore liberationist.
DD needs a more balanced approach....
Since 2006,
No GM has handed out more lavish extensions (not just contracts)
No GM has signed fewer free agents, especially to multi year contracts
DD has not signed a single highly sought after free agent
The problem with the contracts that DD has given out is that he limited himself to what was already on the roster. He fell in love with the status quo in 2006, and locked himself into it for four more seasons.
It’s time for DD to let his hair down and go after bona fide proven studs, like Lee and Crawford.
Are the prospects that DD has traded away now All Stars? Are any of them All Stars? (Infante?)
When DD has sucked it up and signed free agents, they’ve done very well. Valverde, Damon, Rogers, Jones, Ordonez, Pudge, Lyon….. all did very well. But when he signed them to extensions, or picked up their options (or let it vest), they’ve blown up in his face.
Other extensions- Guillen, Inge, Bonderman, Robertson, Willis. None lived up to the value of their contracts. (You can make a case on Inge).
Time for DD to diversify. Suck it up and spend some of that $ 75 million on an impact bat and an ACE for the rotation.
Kurt you hit it dead on
play the kids and see how they do then we’ll all know better about next year.If we’re lucky the dead weight (inge-guillen) will be done for the year and we’ll see what the younguns produce. David Chad makes big money for a reason lets see it. This should really show what we need this off season. I love seeing the kids play. GO TIGERS!
And what happens WHEN the season is flushed, and NONE of the AAA players show any hope of being average major leaguers?
And the Tigers have held on to a bunch of going nowhere prospects for what?
They’ve flushed 2010, not made any moves to improve in 2011, there’s little coming on the free agent market, and they’ve failed to pick up any Type A or B free agents so they don’t add any comp picks.?
Bad strategy, IMO.
So clearly we trade what little help we have in the minor leagues
When you put it that way, it makes so much sense.
Assist. Editor, Minor League Division, Bless You Boys
Daniel Fields is better than you.
by David Tokarz on Jul 27, 2010 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions
The "help" in the minor leagues is an illusion. It ain't there.
The Tigers need a 3B, a Catcher, a SS, a 2B, at least one starting pitcher, and two guys capable of hitting in the 2 and 3 spots in the lineup. How many of those guys are in the system? The need is either now, or next spring, at the latest for each of them. They have no idea who will or will not “help”. Putting a below average player in a full time position is not helping in my book, and that makes every prospect other than Turner, Oliver, and maybe Furbush available for any player that can help. Preferably this year and next.
I think we need to make a move
for Stephen Drew. Draw the line there. Getting this guy would address the SS problem, which is arguably the biggest hole we have; now and into the future. It’s a no brainer to me. Better get him before the Giants do.
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We have an edge over the Giants
in that we’re not in Arizona’s division. Although it’s not like their GM has proven to be too bright lately…
by handsomerob1 on Jul 28, 2010 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions
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