Lower your expectations: Nothing is guaranteed in free agency
by BigAl on Jul 28, 2010 1:31 PM EDT
in Detroit Tigers Analysis
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PrintThe trade deadline is an exciting time for baseball fans everywhere, including we fans of the in desperately in need of an infusion on offense Tigers. And we can all agree the Tigers will need to plug several roster holes. Some possibly via a deadline deal, and others after the season (quite mercifully, if the last week is any indication) ends.
It's very possible the Tigers will make a move or two at the deadline, at the cost of a few prospects. (The caveat being if the Tigers totally collapse on this road trip, and find themselves 7-8 games back by Saturday. Then a trade would be like whizzing into the wind. Futile, stupid and very messy.)
Fearful of a John Smoltz/Jair Jurrjens result, many Tigers fans are saying, "Don't trade prospects, let's just wait for the end of the season to sign Carl Crawford/Adam Dunn/Cliff Lee/name your favorite free agent here/any combination thereof."
Yes, it is true the Tigers may have up to $75 million in payroll drop off their ledgers when this season ends. For the first time in recent memory, there will be payroll flexibility at Comerica Park. Thus you immediately think, "Dave Dombrowski is going to party hearty in free agency!"
Not necessarily. I need to remind you of one thing.
Having money to spend is all well and good, but free agency does not happen in a vacuum.
There will be other teams ready, willing and able to spend just as much, if not more...and many of those teams have more attractive playing and living situations.
To name only three franchises the Tigers are competition with on the open market, there's the Yankees, Red Sox and Angels, big spenders all. Their owners light cigars with $100 bills. Hell,their bat boys are in the 50% tax bracket. These franchises will throw bat bags full of Benjamins at players, as if money grows on trees. Being in huge media markets, raking in cash with large TV and radio deals, plucking cash out of an orchard full of greenbacks may just as well be true. For those teams, cash is that easy to come by. They can, and will, out bid the Tigers.
Let's not forget location. Los Angeles and New York (let alone Chicago or any city located in the Sun Belt) are are going to be prime destinations for the elite free agents.
Because that's how free agency usually works.
Regardless of what many players who come to SE MI find out, the suburbs are as nice as can be found anywhere, Detroit will never, ever be considered a "destination," period. The Tigers will have to overpay in free agency, sometimes to the point of ridiculousness (See Rodriguez, Pudge). If that's not successful, the Tigers may have to take leap of faith on an injured player (See Ordonez, Magglio), or go all in with an aging one (See Rogers, Kenny).
Sure, the Tigers may be able to lure a big name free agent to sign on the line that is dotted. But I wouldn't bet on it.
For an example in another sport, take a look at the Detroit Pistons.
GM Joe Dumars had originally planned to be a player in 2010 free agency when LeBron James, Dewayne Wade, Chris Bosch, Amar'e Stoudemire, Carlos Boozer, Joe Johnson and Dirk Nowitzki were going to be on the open market. In 2008, he traded Chauncy Billups for the expiring contract of Allen Iverson, giving the Pistons a huge amount of space (in the area of $21M to $23M) under the salary cap.
Fans thought the Pistons would have a shot at an elite ball player. The type you build a team around.
It didn't happen.
Via back channels, Dumars learned those players weren't interested in coming to Detroit, opportunity for a max contract be damned. So he spent his cap money in 2009 on a pair of younger, 2nd tier players, Charlie Villanueva and Ben Gordon.
Gordon and Villaneuva didn't live up to expectations (for several reasons, including injuries), and the Pistons finished the 2010 season last in their division.
As for those NBA free agents? They ended up in big markets (Boozer in Chicago and Stoudemire in New York), the sun belt (Johnson in Atlanta and Nowitski in Dallas, both re-signed with their current teams) or a team with both (James, Bosch and Wade are in Miami...in case you haven't heard).
Because that's how free agency usually works.
Bringing up the Pistons' situation is my way of saying we may have to tone down our expectations for the Tigers in free agency.
Could the Tigers sign Carl Crawford, a player Tigers fans have long lusted after? Of course they could. But if I were a betting man, I'd say Crawford ends up in New York or Los Angeles.
The risk of coming up empty in free agency is why trades make more sense for teams like the Tigers. If it means giving up prospects, you do it.
As much as it hurts, think back to last season. At the '09 trade deadline, the Tigers were unwilling to part with an elite prospect to obtain Matt Holliday. Instead, they traded low level prospects, taking fliers on Aubrey Huff and an injured Jarrod Washburn.
If the Tigers trade for Holliday, they aren't in a game 163. They are in the playoffs.
That's how prospects are often best used...as trade bait.
So before we get all tingly in our special places thinking about players like Crawford signing with the Tigers, prepare yourself for their ending up with the likes of a David DeJesus instead. I'm not saying it will happen...but it just might.
Because that's how free agency usually works.
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Make that $ 75 million coming off the books after this season.
Ordonez, Bonderman, Willis, Robertson, Damon, Inge, Laird, Seay, and Everett. $ 75 mil.
Still, I think that anyone expecting the Tigers to go on a shopping spree with all that cash this winter is mistaken.
1. That’s not DD’s M.O. No team in the league has acquired fewer free agents since 2006. Not one mulit year free agent contract since 2006 except Valverde. No highly sought after free agents- as in out bidding another team. Free agency has always been a last resort for DD.
2. The free agent crop this winter isn’t all that great. Once you get past Cliff Lee, Carl Crawford, Jayson Werth and a few others, the upgrades become pretty modest, and replacing the production of Ordonez in a No. 3 hitter becomes problematic. In the infield, the talent level is even lower. Maybe the Mets decline the $ 11 mil option on Reyes, but probably not. Maybe Beltre bolts from Boston, but he wouldn’t even interview with the Tigers when he wound up in Seattle. All the more reason for DD to change his ways and go hard after one or two of the premium free agents, such as Crawford and Lee, and all the more reason to make a trade NOW, since that’s what has to be done in most cases this winter, anyway.
Even as far as the “rentals” are concerned, such as Adam Dunn or Ted Lilly, the point seems to be lost on many folks (hopefully not on DD) that a Type A free agent comes with a couple of first or second round draft picks attached to them. The ones that you wouldn’t mind extending for a season, or are likely to decline arbitration, are worth pursuing now. In many cases, the comp picks alone are worth the prospects that you have to give up to get them. After Turner and Oliver, what prospects are worth more than two first round picks? Very few.
All the more reason to play “Lets Make a Deal” this week.
Good point about Magglio
I forgot about his contract falling off the books. I’ll fix it in the post…
I'm owner/editor of The Wayne Fontes Experience a deputy editor at Bless You Boys and co-host The Knee Jerks podcast.
the picks come if they decline the arb
Atlanta had to scramble and trade Soriano to TB after he signed the arb offer when he saw nothing happening in the FA market. While I don’t disagree with trying to get some "A"s and "B"s for picks, I think you also have to be cautious of the risk of the player accepting and being saddled with a guy you don’t really want.
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by rock n rye on Jul 28, 2010 2:03 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Depends who the player is
The Tigers would be perfectly fine with bringing Lilly or Dunn back on a 1 year arby deal.
Relief pitchers in particular can pose risks as Type A free agents.
They’ve carved out a separate category just for relievers, and the fact is that top 20% of relievers don’t have the same value as the top 20% of starting pitchers or outfielders. But I would not hesitate to offer arbitration to most of the Type A free agents such as Dunn, Lilly, or Scott Downs that are on the trade block right now. I’d be happy if they accepted and happy if they walked and I get two comp picks for them.
Dunn won't accept arbitration
He didn’t last time, and he won’t this time.
Assist. Editor, Minor League Division, Bless You Boys
Daniel Fields is better than you.
by David Tokarz on Jul 28, 2010 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Lee Corso : Not so fast my friend!
The Yankees will have 210 million tied up assuming they get Cliff Lee for about 20 million and the luxury tax will hit them at 50% next year. Therefore adding a luxury such as Crawford will cost them 20 million plus another 10 in luxury taxes.
The Angels will have 120 million estimated in retaining what they already have, many of their starters are due arbitration raises, Napoli, Aybar, Kendrick and Weaver. Plus they will have to fill some holes because that doesn’t count Shields or Fuentes, so they need some bullpen help. They have 120 this year. So if they add anything to their pen, they might be looking at 150 if they try to add Crawford. Angels might bat an eyelash about adding 25% payroll in one year
Boston has a ton of room though. We will have to offer 3 or 4 million more just to get them on the plane to Detroit, but once you do we have a puncher’s chance.
Red Sox have a ton of money to spend…
Point taken, but there's always the Dodgers, Cubs, Mets, et al
As I said, that’s was only 3 teams. There will be more…
I'm owner/editor of The Wayne Fontes Experience a deputy editor at Bless You Boys and co-host The Knee Jerks podcast.
The Dodgers are still in the divorce follies.
The Cubs don’t spend wisely and the Mets have Omar making weird decisions.
Ryan Raburn antagonist.
Scott Sizemore liberationist.
The Angels then
Assist. Editor, Minor League Division, Bless You Boys
Daniel Fields is better than you.
by David Tokarz on Jul 28, 2010 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions
They are a possibility but they probably won't add too much payroll.
Someone stated their situation earlier.
Ryan Raburn antagonist.
Scott Sizemore liberationist.
ANGELS PAYROLL
$ 91 Mil committed for 2011, plus ten, count em, TEN players up for arbitration
They also have Fuentes with an option likely to kick in, and they have to replace Matsui, Shields, and Quinlan on the payroll. Not a ton of flexibility for Arte, but they’re very interested in Crawford.
Twinkies have 9
<AHREF=http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tIn6UNnQQrmryUesyK0wSwg&output=html> LINK
Plus, they have Pavano, Hudson, Rauch, Guerrier, Crain, and Blome all eligible as free agents.
whats an extra 30 million
To a team that brings in almost a billion yearly?
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by rock n rye on Jul 28, 2010 2:15 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I disagree
The tigers will make some BIG moves much like the Mariners did, hopefully with a much more positive result.
Don’t forget the Yanks have to resign Rivera, Jeter and Pettite. Their OF is also pretty tied up.
If anyone is really challenging Detroit for Crawford it is the Angels who have already expressed a strong intrest. Again, as mentioned above they have their own financial raises, FA etc.
Time will tell I guess.
I know one thing though, with $75 million I DOUBT Detroit will be quiet and play second fiddle to the NYs Bostons and LAs.
by JAYRC on Jul 28, 2010 2:17 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Good point.. There's always the Mike Ilitch factor
I'm owner/editor of The Wayne Fontes Experience a deputy editor at Bless You Boys and co-host The Knee Jerks podcast.
Leyland says screw the expectations
Lets be patient and go after Pujols the following year.
Yeah, 1B has been a real problem.
by ChrisDTX on Jul 28, 2010 2:49 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Yes
we need a guy who won't GIDP when the game is on the line
Rooting for Tiger stripes, not pinstripes
by JerseyTigerFan on Jul 28, 2010 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
how quickly we forget the 9827348236 other times he's been clutch
Director of the 2010 Free Casper Wells campaign
No Run Support
Also, DeJesus isn't available.
He has a 6 mil club option which is almost certainly getting picked up.
If we did get DeJesus somehow, that is nothing to be disappointed about.
If only for the fact that he'd no longer be beating up Tiger pitching
by ChrisDTX on Jul 28, 2010 2:50 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
and for Lebowski references
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by rock n rye on Jul 28, 2010 3:00 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
He doesn't suck, but I wouldn't call him a replacement in the 3 hole for Magglio, either
He’d be an asset, but with Boesch and AJax seemingly penciled in the OF, it’s a big drop from Crawford to DeJesus.
You'd think so
But it’s really not. I think that this year is a career year for Crawford, and it’s not likely to be repeated.
DDJ actually has a higher career OPS (by 7 points), and has a career OBP that’s 23 points higher, and his defense isn’t really that much of a step down from Crawford’s. DDJ’s game also isn’t dependent upon his speed like Crawford’s is, so he may age a little bit better.
Crawford may be a better player overall, but he’ll probably get Torii Hunter money on the open market. He’s not like 12 million a year better than DeJesus.
by ozymandius1024 on Jul 28, 2010 11:13 PM EDT up reply actions
This isn't a career year for DeJesus?
He’s been up and down. One year very good, the next not so good.
My guess is that KC picks up his option but may trade him, so his one year salary is a reasonable 6 million. If he repeats this season’s numbers and hits the market, he’ll get more. Since he’s now torn a ligament, his status is up in the air.
Crawford probably gets in the $ 15 mil range for four or five years.
By the way, thanks for this post
Everyone acts like the $ coming off ofthe payroll is some magic elixir. If history is any guide, what $ is spent will be spent poorly (cf. Robertson, Inge, Bonderman, Willis).
by ChrisDTX on Jul 28, 2010 2:53 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Spent poorly = extensions. Spent wisely = free agents.
Free Agents: Ordonez, Pudge, Rogers, T Jones, Lyon, Valverde, Damon, Santiago.
FA Exceptions: Percival, Everett (IMO)
Extensions: Bonderman, Robertson, Willis, Guillen, Inge, Everett, Pudge’s option, Magglio’s vesting option, Dmitri’s option.
Plus Extensions: Polanco.
Everett wasn't too bad of a signing, IMO
Had they spent $3-4 million, then yes, it’s a bad deal. Getting a veteran whatever at $1+ million per year in this era is a bargain, even if he did hit like his sister.
by handsomerob1 on Jul 28, 2010 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions
It's not about money. Everett was an inadequate shortstop.
The fact that he was cheap justifies nothing in my book. It was an inadequate signing for the need that the team had at that position. I’m as much a supporter as anyone of Everett’s defense, but no amount of defense can make up for the fact that he was the worst hitter in the league vs right handed pitching. He shouldn’t have been signed, and shouldn’t have been extended.
But hey, if you take him off the list, then there’s only one bad free agent signing, and Percival had half of his contract covered by insurance.
By no means was it a great deal
but it wasn’t awful. His extensions have been much, much worse.
by handsomerob1 on Jul 28, 2010 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions
The Tigers could have gotten by with Everett at SS, if they didn't have so many other holes.
Inge tanking for the entire second half of 2009 made Everett too much to tolerate in the same lineup. Laird, Inge, and Everett this season was just too much to take. Even when Inge got better, too much sputtering to withstand such a poor performance at the plate. You gotta put Everett’s signing somewhere, and I put it on the negative side. The extension was definitely a negative, in hindsight.
Now can we puleeeeeze get a bona fide shortstop for a change?
No need to insult the dude's sister
Granderson was my Tiger, then Sizemore, then Willis. Since they're all gone, I'm taking Raburn and hoping the pattern holds.
Everett wasn't bad
It’s a million dollars, and he gave Detroit great defense last year.
by ozymandius1024 on Jul 28, 2010 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions
I disagree, kind of.
Yes, there are bigger teams from bigger markets with better cash flow etc. They are always a problem. However, there aren’t many teams that will have as much payroll flexibility as the Tigers. Of course, the big question you ask is will players be attracted to Detroit?
I say Yes. And there is one major reason why things have changed from the era of our Pudge/Maggs/Rogers signings.
The Tigers are contenders. They have been contenders for a few years. What’s more, they have a core built for success, anchored by Verlander and Cabrera (along with Scherzer, Porcello, Jackson, Boesch…). Players realize this. Track record of contention? Check. Supporting cast? Check. Franchise that players love to work for? Check.
We may need to temper our expectations, but I don’t we think we need to settle for the David DeJesus’s of the world as BigAl seems to indicate.
Grand Cards: A blog for Tigers Cardboard and Commentary
It's also like Nick said
Even if we do have to settle for the DDJ’s of the world, that’s not a horrible spot to be in.
If they have to abstain from spending all of the cash on the FA market, I’m totally cool with that. It’d make them instant players in any payroll dump deal in the future.
by ozymandius1024 on Jul 28, 2010 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Just a few names
We need to upgrade a few positions and don’t need to spend big. Re-sign Damon as LF and DH platoon. Re-sign Inge or hope Sizemore shows some punch for the rest of the season. If those two fail try Cantu. An upgrade offensively over Inge, glove not so much. Chris Snyder from AZ would be a solid platon with Avilia. If Oliver or Furbush can be a fifth we have a solid rotation.
Jorge Cantu is not an upgrade over Brandon Inge
Take a gander at his batting stats this year. Factoring in the defense makes it not even close.
by ozymandius1024 on Jul 28, 2010 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions
DREAM SCENARIO
Yankees spend tons on Carl Crawford and decide that their outfield is too crowded. After looking over the previous season’s stats, they release Granderson. DD calls him up and gives him a 3 year deal to play LF. Our favorite humanitarian/non-lefty hitting hero returns to his rightful baseball home.
But Crawford’s arrival won’t be greeted by free ice cream, puppies and fire trucks. Like I said, DREAM SCENARIO. Let me stay in fantasy land until tonight’s lineup shatters it to pieces at least.
by handsomerob1 on Jul 28, 2010 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions
I want Beltre the most.
Crawford and Beltre would be my dream scenario.
That's really not a dream scenario.
I would take Granderson back, but he’s not going to save the day. He’s not even as good as DeJesus, who is getting crapped on all over this thread for reasons I do not understand.
It's not a dream scenario
it’s a DREAM SCENARIO which is devoid of all statistical logic and only makes sense to the person that thought of it.
by handsomerob1 on Jul 28, 2010 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Actually, the Yankees releasing him would help though
Because then the Tigers could have him for the next 2 years for the league minimum. That’d be pretty sweet.
i know i am probably crazy so dont judge me!
i thought that prince fielder was a free agent coming up. why dont we bring fielder kid here and let him be our dh, if you have fielder and cabrera on team that could be scary, would be a very slow team but both can hit the ball and maybe we wont have to throw remotes on the ground as much, because those 2 guys usually can get runners in that are in scoring position.
You're crazy!
Just kidding…it would be an awesome 3-4 or 4-5 punch. Sadly, the Prince isn’t a free agent this off-season. He has one year of arbitration left, but the Brew Crew is looking to sell this year if the package is right.
Granderson was my Tiger, then Sizemore, then Willis. Since they're all gone, I'm taking Raburn and hoping the pattern holds.
I'm sure
since we all know he LOVES his father that Detroit would be the last place he would want to play.
by handsomerob1 on Jul 28, 2010 7:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Prince and Cecil
Super Bestest Friend/Son&Dad4eva!
Ryan Raburn antagonist.
Scott Sizemore liberationist.
Dodgers interested in Raburn?
Via Rotoworld
Jayson Stark of ESPN.com hears that the Dodgers have expressed interest in Tigers outfielder Ryan Raburn.
The Dodgers are also looking into Royals speedster Scott Podsednik. Raburn, 29, has hit a paltry .205/.274/.331 with two homers and one stolen base this season, but he’d make a fine backup outfielder in Los Angeles.
Source: Jayson Stark on Twitter
get someone?
i’d be happy giving him to them!
by Kurt Mensching on Jul 28, 2010 6:38 PM EDT up reply actions
An autographed baseball from Vin Scully.
That has to be the asking price.
Ryan Raburn antagonist.
Scott Sizemore liberationist.
Reminds me of the winter of 2003,
when we were in hot pursuit of free agent SS Rich Aurilla. We lost out on him to the Seattle Mariners. At that time, Carlos Guillen was considered a failure in Seattle, so they eagerly traded him to us for Santiago.
Maybe we just need to do that again. Grab another stinky guy for cheap, and hope for another Cinderella story.
I actually think that's an underrated way to build the team.
If we can’t sign top flight FAs, there are a lot of good players out there that are getting expensive for their teams and might be had for a fairly cheap prospect price.
Um, yeah
That’s kinda DD’s MO.
Assist. Editor, Minor League Division, Bless You Boys
Daniel Fields is better than you.
by David Tokarz on Jul 28, 2010 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions
This is where I hope a good amount of the money is allocated
Free Agency isn’t exactly the most efficient way to spend your money (unless you’re getting someone like Lee or Sabathia or Teixeira).
by ozymandius1024 on Jul 28, 2010 11:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Tigers interested in Peralta?
Ed Price of AOL Fanhouse reports that the Tigers are “discussing” Indians third baseman Jhonny Peralta.
The Tigers are looking for a replacement for the injured Brandon Inge and Peralta does seem like a nice, temporary fit. He’s a .264/.329/.422 career hitter over seven-plus professional seasons. This year, the 28-year-old infielder is batting .246 with a .698 OPS, seven homers and 43 RBI.
Source: Ed Price on Twitter
Well, if this is true, at least DD isn’t running the white flag up just yet. Peralta would be okay at third base, but he’s very stationary at shortstop. Inge’s defense has been about league average this season, and Peralta is slightly below that. Peralta’s numbers at third last year were about the same, he’s a tick better this season.
At the plate, Peralta isn’t even as good as Inge, who’s below average for third base. This isn’t a long term solution. Jhonny has a $ 7 mil option with a $ 250 K buyout for 2011.
Conclusion: I’d rather have Bautista.
Conclusion
I’d rather have Sizemore, Kelly, Worth, the 10,000th fan through the gates on any given night, or a beer vendor’s daughter..
Granderson was my Tiger, then Sizemore, then Willis. Since they're all gone, I'm taking Raburn and hoping the pattern holds.
He doesn't even know how to spell Johnny!
Maybe Damon could mentor him.
Granderson was my Tiger, then Sizemore, then Willis. Since they're all gone, I'm taking Raburn and hoping the pattern holds.
Depends...
what does the beer vendor’s daughter look like?
by handsomerob1 on Jul 28, 2010 7:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Tigers get Peralta for Geovanni Soto
From MLBTR:
The Tigers acquired Jhonny Peralta from the Indians for minor league pitcher Giovanni Soto, according to the team. About an hour ago, Ed Price of AOL FanHouse reported on Twitter that the Tigers were discussing Peralta.
Brandon Inge and Carlos Guillen are on the disabled list, so Peralta gives the Tigers infield depth as they chase the Twins and White Sox. The infielder switched to third base last season after years at short. Peralta hasn’t hit much this year, as his .246/.308/.389 line shows. The 28-year-old makes $4.6MM this season (about $1.7MM remains) and the Tigers have a $7MM option for 2011 with a $250K buyout.
This is terrible.
Couldn’t they have found someone else besides Soto, like Sborz or Raburn?
Ryan Raburn antagonist.
Scott Sizemore liberationist.
This is gap filler until Inge returns, IMO
I don’t think they’ll pick up his option, and definitely don’t want him at shortstop.
Peralta is slightly below average at 3B both in 2009 and 2010 according to Fangraphs UZR ratings. Inge is a bit better on both counts.
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