Brad Hawpe to the Tigers makes some sense
by Kurt Mensching on Jul 30, 2010 10:13 AM EDT
in Detroit Tigers Analysis
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PrintI saw a report last night that said the Tigers might be interested in Brad Hawpe. I scoffed. Joe Galea messaged me "It's like everyone that would have been worthwhile back in 2007" (Come to think of it, I think I argued for trading for Hawpe at the old blog in 2007.) But now that I think about it, it's not the craziest thing in the world.
A 31-year-old outfielder, Hawpe isn't having the best season of his career, to be sure. His wOBA* is "just" .340 right now, after putting up seasons of .384, .379, .389, .376 the past four years. I say "only" .340 because on the Tigers, that would make him the fifth best batter in the lineup. Actually, if you are willing to admit even when Brennan Boesch gets out of his slump he's not going to put up the same .379 again and Austin Jackson's .353 is driven by an incredible, luck-driven six weeks, Hawpe's probably better.
While it would be folly to expect Hawpe to get back to the .389 territory anytime soon at this stage of his career, there's certainly good seasons left in him. The 2011 season can be had at the cost of a $10m option ($500k buyout). He's not going to wow in the outfield, but when you consider the alternatives in Detroit that doesn't particularly matter much to me.
Another thing that it gives the Tigers is options. While I think Magglio Ordonez will be back next season, there's no guarantee he will be. As Big Al pointed out earlier in the week, there's no guarantee the Tigers are going to be able to go out and grab some big-name outfielder either. Having the option to look around at the market a bit and decide whether to keep Hawpe around at an acceptable cost is a nice bird-in-the-hand.
Of course it all depends on the cost. I haven't heard much what the asking price for Hawpe is. If the Rockies want a top-line prospect it's probably not worth it. But at the right mid-level prospect price, it could be a move with an eye to the present and an eye to the future.
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He's a butcher in the field
I don’t like it. He can no longer play the OF, and is limited to 1B/DH duty….and we have plenty of that.
We do have plenty of those *types*
But Hawpe isn’t just a product of Coors. He’s an .850 OPS hitter with a career OBP around .370 on the road. The Tigers could use as many of those as they can get.
He would absolutely have to be the full-time DH though, because you’re not wrong in saying that he’s one of the worst RF’s in baseball right now. Johnny Damon is in that situation now, so if Hawpe’s cool with doing that (unlike Adam Dunn) I would love it.
This is completely ignoring his .5 million buyout for 2011, which is awesome. (and 10 mil isn’t terrible for an .850 OPS)
by ozymandius1024 on Jul 30, 2010 11:02 AM EDT reply actions
Don't forget the comp picks
Hawpe is a solid Type A free agent. He makes $ 7.5 mil this season, or 2.5 mil for the balance of the season, plus a 500 K buyout. That’s a total cost of $ 3 mil for a Hawpe rental plus a supplemental first round pick and a first or second round pick. Most likely another first, since the teams that pay that kind of dough are usually top 15 clubs. Of course this assumes that DD isn’t silly enough to leave those picks on the table (which he is) by not offering arbitration.
I’d still rather have Josh Willingham. At a reasonable 4.6 million, with one year of arb eligibility left, he is a better player than Hawpe, and better player, IMO, than Dunn. Of course, it depends upon what the Gnats are willing to take for him. Anyone on the farm but Turner or Oliver, and I say do it. Throw in Wilson Ramos, and I’d part with Oliver.
Um, What?
The Tigers have a negative run differential. We are one game over .500 and deserve to be worse. Last time I checked we have a negative expected run differential. We have broken 10 guys into the league, of whom about three belong on a major league roster. We have given several hundred starts to system fodder or worse, and we will need to give them more starts to cover for injuries. Really, I mean, look at our roster and tell me with a straight face that with two of those names changed, we’re right back in this.
Doesn’t that mean that we’re crazy even to give up even a very young pitcher with Moyer-esque velocity? Doesn’t that mean that we’re insane to want to give up more?
You may have missed the point of the post
That getting Hawpe’s 2011 season for the right trade is a good move for the future.
by Kurt Mensching on Jul 30, 2010 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Fair Enough
Apologies Kurt – you’re quite right. I’m not sold that $10m is a good price for the production given how the FA market for players like Bobby Abreu went last winter, but it sounds much better than what I read the first time.
Also, since I’m a first time poster I should say I’ve been reading for BYB all this year after following your previous blog and appreciate all the work you guys do both posting and replying. Thanks.
We won't know the actual going price for Hawpe's production until this offseason
but it wouldn’t surprise me to see comparable players getting that kind of money. In the grand scheme, that’s not insane for a free agent slugger. The next contract that takes him out a couple of years from now, that might not be pretty. But a single season at 10M doesn’t sound like the worst way to spend money
by Kurt Mensching on Jul 30, 2010 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree. $ 10 million on Magglio wouldn't be the worst, either.
The key thing is, with so many vacancies all over the field, DD has to make the pieces fit together. One piece is a hitter for Magglio’s spot in the 3 hole, and that will most likely be an OF/ DH. The No. 2 could be anyone- from a SS to a 3B, to an OF/ DH, as it is now with Damon. I’d go hard after Crawford, and still look for a Werth, Hawpe, Willingham, Dunn for the 3 slot.
And- if we can get the old Hawpe
I picture him spraying balls into the gaps all over Co Pa. They could build special little crevices in the padding!
I agree, he could help but
But not worth the 10 mil it would cost next year. I think it’s a mistake to pay a DH that who has negative value in the field. Boesch is another whole story…. I still think the’s a good 4th OF in the majors. The OF is looking to be a mess, unless they back up the Brinks Truck to Carl Crawford’s door…
I'd be a little worried since he's having a rough year
But he’s definitely good enough to DH here. If you brought back Magglio, I think a Jackson/Boesch/Magglio/Hawpe unit would be awfully productive. Or, if you didn’t want to give him 10 mil next year, you could offer him arbitration and see if you could get in on the draft picks. I’m fairly certain he’s type A.
Update from Rotoworld (and other places, I'm sure)
According to the Denver Post’s Troy Renck, Brad Hawpe remains on the radar for the Tigers and White Sox.
If the White Sox are going to sell, Hawpe is a good place to start. The team should have better ways of spending the $10 million he’s due next year if his option is picked up. A Seth Smith-Dexter Fowler-Carlos Gonzalez outfield would be a whole lot better defensively.
Source: Troy Renck on Twitter
I have liked willingham for a couple of seasons
darn Nats just don’t want to give him up.
by Kurt Mensching on Jul 30, 2010 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions
I think they don't want to give up Josh and Dunn, but they could be talked out of one of them.
No question that their price for Dunn has been outrageous, but maybe the Black Sox now have what they want for him, in Edwin Jackson. He’s due for a very big raise in arbitration, IMO. Guys with his slash line don’t come along very often. I think he’d come a little cheaper than Dunn, but would be a better fit for the Tigers. If DD could get them down from Turner and Oliver territory, I’d jump at it.
I get all my lanky, white. Rockie outfielders confused
Hawpe….Spilborghs…..Smith. I think it’s the pinstripes that throw me.
2 Over the Monster!
Where’s the guy who wanted a sandwich 4 this guy? I guess maybe he was worth a little more than a gyro, huh? Go JP, nice pick up D&D! Hook us up with sum1 else…Bautista & Buck.
Let's Do Some Math....
Let’s see, there are 60 games left, we are 52-50… that means we would have to go 40-20 the rest of the year to win 92 games,and with the way the Twins and Pale Hose are playing, that would be about what you would have to win to take the division. I’m not even sure if 92 wins puts you in any position to win a wild card. So let’s see… that means you would have to play .667 ball the REST OF THE WAY….. Yes, ALL through August and September, we would have to WIN EVERY series……. Hee hee….. Ain’t gonna happen! Unless of course, we can play all our games at Comerica. Started FIVE rookies tonight, our closer faced ONLY 11 batters and threw 60 pitches….. This win doesn’t even make me feel a bit good about our chances to make the playoffs. Put a fork in us, we are done!
by Phenomenal Bob on Jul 30, 2010 11:22 PM EDT reply actions
I think 86- 87 wins does it, especially if we slap down the division rivals head to head
If we don’t beat those two teams when we play them, there’s nothing to talk about.
Too Many Mud Hens
Realistically. I was only speaking in round figures, maybe 86 or 87 wins will take this sorry division, but there are just t too many rookies in the lineup to even conceive a turnaround, or the ability to beat Minnesota or Chicago.I can’t understand marching the top three in the order( all rookies) out where the ghosts of The Babe and Yaz and Teddy once played. They had to be so star struck,It’s a wonder their knees weren’t knocking in the batter’s box. Of course, about two weeks ago, Boesch realized he was a rookie, and you see what has happened to him. But, don’t give him any advice, it will only fill his head up with an overload of info, just let his free swinging ways continue, and as Jim says " maybe he’ll run into one"…..lol
by Phenomenal Bob on Jul 31, 2010 12:08 AM EDT up reply actions
At a minimum, the Tigers need to replace Ordonez in the No. 3 spot, and need their starters to get on a big roll
Inge and Guillen coming back may help, but it starts with the rotation and ends with the top of the order carrying a weak bottom of the lineup. And, as mentioned, gotta beat those Black Sox and Twinkies head to head and pick up ground there.
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