FoxSports.com: Rick Porcello being showcased for trade
by Kurt Mensching on Jul 9, 2010 2:36 PM EDT
in Detroit Tigers News
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PrintUpdate: Jim Leyland vehemently denies this report.
FoxSports.com's Jon Paul Morosi reports Rick Porcello's start is being pushed back a day for Triple-A Toledo to showcase him for a possible trade. The probably partner? The Arizona Diamondbacks, which brings Dan Haren's name to mind instantly.
Morosi writes:
One source told FOXSports.com that the decision came from Detroit — not the organization’s minor league officials — raising the possibility that Porcello will pitch before a special scouting audience on Saturday in Toledo.
When asked this week if Porcello is absolutely untouchable, Tigers general manager Dave Dombrowski replied, "I don’t ever use the word ‘untouchable’ on any players, but he’s not a guy we’re looking to trade."
Now before we get ahead of ourselves too far, this isn't the first time we've seen mention of Porcello being pushed back a day.
Toledo pitcher and oft-Twitterer Scot Drucker wrote on his blog Thursday he'd be taking a spot start to take the pressure off the pitching staff.
I'm getting a spot start tomorrow to help give some of our staff and breather and for the big league club to line up their starters for the 2nd half.
While Jon Paul Morosi is one of the national reporters whose reports I trust the most -- his track record as related to the Tigers has been excellent -- it's possible this is nothing at all, simply Porcello and Armando Galarraga getting lined up correctly to rejoin the Tigers after the break.
But let's play along with Morosi for a moment. If Porcello is being showcased, who is it for? His report states that Houston's Roy Oswalt has already stated he would use his no-trade clause to veto a move to Detroit. So, Haren is the most likely candidate:
Haren will earn $12.75 million in each of the next two seasons, followed by a $15.5 million club option for 2013.
Haren is probably a better fit for the Tigers, anyway, because he has demonstrated that he can have success in the American League; Oswalt is a career National Leaguer. (The Tigers also pursued Haren via trade after the 2007 season, and it’s worth noting that Detroit manager Jim Leyland picked Haren to start the 2007 All-Star Game.)
Haren's ERA with the Diamondbacks this year is 4.38, but he has a 3.45 xFIP alongside it, so you expect improvement. His biggest problem right now appears to be a bit of bad luck, as his ground ball and line drive rates are pretty much in line with his career norms, and his strikeout and walk numbers are better than his career average. In his last season in the American League, with the A's, he had a 3.07 ERA and 3.87 xFIP.
A rotation with Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and Dan Haren as the top three through the year 2012 would certainly make the Tigers a team to be recommended with for years to come.
Full disclosuer: I've been a Dan Haren fan since he came up with the A's. So this would really excite me quite a bit.
Understandably, this news would dismay many Tigers fans who are big supporters of Porcello.
But as I tried to say at the top of the post, just because there's a report doesn't mean you should read too much into it or stress about it. Many trade rumors will circulate throughout the month of July, and most of them don't come to fruition.
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That contract is very reasonable.
It could be nothing more than smoke but something tells me I shouldn’t be surprised to see DD make a splash.
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If it's Haren for Porcello
do it yesterday.
by ChrisDTX on Jul 9, 2010 2:40 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
I'd love to see Haren in Detroit
But is he the best Diamondback for the Tigers? What about Stephen Drew?
my take (sharing with everyone else what we just gchatted)
is that the Tigers can’t move a starting pitcher for a position player otherwise their rotation is crippled. Minor leaguers for Drew but certainly not Porcello.
by Kurt Mensching on Jul 9, 2010 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions
And to add from that GChat
Getting another starting pitcher wouldn’t be out of the question. A lower-tier guy like Millwood for lesser prospects.
by Ian Casselberry on Jul 9, 2010 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes, he did
But if he’s not ready by the trade deadline, someone of that ilk.
by Ian Casselberry on Jul 9, 2010 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Hell
Millwood would cost a PTBNL. Get Alex Gonzalez from the Jays for lesser prospects and pick up Millwood for nothing (AKA Cale Iorg).
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Millwood already gave us one win this season when he pitched against us
Steer clear of Millwood..
Millwood = Washburn
drew
whats the big infatuation with drew..he’s hitting .269 with 4 hrs….big deal…rather go get ramirez from the marlins…i’d trade porcello for haren in a heartbeat
Drew is one of the few shortstops actually on the market...
unlike HanRam… and Reyes…
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by DetroitTigersGeek on Jul 9, 2010 8:10 PM EDT up reply actions
I got the car gassed up
all we need is porcello’s bags in the trunk
seems good for the short term
i’m not in love with keeping minor leaguers or anything, but is this good for the long-term? porcello is young, reasonable contract, blah blah blah – also trading an AL pitcher for an NL pitcher. you get my drift.
i’d be ok with “building for 2011”
Haren was quite successful in the AL a mere two seasons ago
by Kurt Mensching on Jul 9, 2010 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions
I know this doesn't really contradict your point
but Porcello was quite successful in the AL last year, at age 20. This seems shortsighted for a not-quite-sure-thing like Haren.
Haren's a pretty sure thing
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Yeah, you're probably right
He’s established himself as a consistent big league starter, but right now he looks like a middle of the rotation guy. His WHIP is over 1.3 this year.
Other potential problems:
1) he’s 30.
2) he’s never tossed Kevin Youkilis to the ground like so much volleyball.
3) Oakland is a great place to pitch and the AL numbers we’re looking at are from there.
That’s all I can think of. If it actually happened, I wouldn’t be all that disappointed.
His ERA and WHIP are overinflated due to luck
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indeed
which is why we should get him now if ever. use the warren buffett approach, DD; buy low
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Chewing gum?
I would settle for confection-to-be-named-later. But so help me god if it’s Good & Plenty.
Porcello's peripheral stats all pointed toward that being unsustainable
His defense-independent stats were a lot, lot higher than his ERA.
Against the Twins it looked like he figured out how to strike batters out, but his season that went away. Had he continued it we wouldn’t be needing to look for a starter right now. And here he is in the minor leagues still trying to find a strikeout pitch.
The Diamondbacks may see him as a cheap alternative and have the time to wait it out as he works on his breaking stuff to find it.
The Tigers can afford Haren and he’s got a career Porcello could only hope for at this point. Not saying Porcello can’t get there but right now he needs to improve several things to do it.
by Kurt Mensching on Jul 9, 2010 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions
They probably seek out groundball-type pitchers, also
How does Haren’s groundball to flyball ratio fit into MLB averages? I seem to recall he gave up a lot of homers earlier in his career, although that may be after he moved to New Coors Field in Arizona. If Porcello can get that sink action back, he might fit their needs well.
pennant race
haren has 4 – 5 good yrs left…proven winner..doesnt walk much…go get him..turner can take porcellos spot in a yr or 2
We'd have him under control until the end of 2013
3 years. We’d have Porcello until, what, 2015? 2016? So, yeah, we’d lose out on a few years, but it’s DAN FRACKING HAREN. He makes us more than competitive this year. And next year. And the year after that. And the year after that. And he does it for below market value.
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So yes
To answer your question, yes.
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well if it's dan fracking haren
i’ll buy haren then. but you’ll never convince me that oswalt makes any sense!
Haren or Oswalt?
Oswalt costs more unless the Strohs pick up a chunk of his salary. They’d have to if they want anything of value in the trade.
If this is about Porcello for Oswalt with Houston buying down Roy’s contract, that means Tiger fans are giving up Porcello so Illitch can bank more money rather than paying Oswalt’s full freight.
Then, there’s Oswalt’s no trade clause.
FWIW- I’m not at all swayed by the fact that Haren once pitched in the AL. Oswalt would do more than fine in the AL. So would Lincecum.
For me, I want Drew and Haren in this deal.
Still, Morosi doesn’t usually get his knickers in a knot over nothing.
Off Topic:
Something I just heard from Cleveland via ESPN: “LeBronadict Arnold”. Hah!
Oswalt said he would not accept a trade to Detroit or Chicago
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by JoelZumayaKegStand on Jul 9, 2010 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions
OK
Now that I’ve thought of this for more than a half second…the Snakes don’t have any scouts that could get to Toledo tonight? Makes more sense that they’re lining up the second half rotation than showcasing.
by ChrisDTX on Jul 9, 2010 2:46 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
That's what I was thinking too
If they were really interested in Kid Rick they would have made it to his originally planned start.
Unless talks just got serious this afternoon and they wanted to get multiple scouts to see him so it didn’t work logistically for everyone.
Who's calling the shots in Arizona, anyway.
Can some interim GM really trade Drew and Haren? I think ownership would have to get involved.
Dont do it DD
I’m convinced they could put together a package for Haren centered around Oliver, Streiby, Larish, and some of those power bullpen arms
not a friggin hope
Oliver can’t throw a curve ball, Larish cleared waivers just last November, and Strieby spends more time in the hospital than he does at the ballpark, while currently putting up a .761 OPS and a .251 batting avg. You’d be lucky to get an autographed picture of Dan Haren for those guys.
wait, are you finally coming around to my view on Strieby? ;)
by Kurt Mensching on Jul 9, 2010 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions
No
I think Strieby will be a good bat- he’s just hurt a ton and doesn’t have as much trade value as a prospect.
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The Tigers are better holding on to Strieby
and see if he can stay healthy, then try to get his bat into the lineup at some point.
There’s a vacancy at DH next year, but they’ll have to find a No. 2 hitter to replace
Damon. Ideally, the SS or 3B could do that, but I wouldn’t put Drew in that class. He’s better than what we’ve had, but he’s not a leadoff or no. 2 guy.
I think Strieby has limited value in a trade. Too much has happened, health wise, and he currently has a .252 average and .761 OPS.
The front office isn’t that stupid. Porcello will have to be the centerpiece. I don’t believe it will be a 1 for 1 though. I would like to see Haren and Drew and us send Porcello, Sizemore, Streiby, and Iorg us to get rid of him
I would rather keep a couple of the names you just mentioned
better to sacrifice one player than several for one arm. I watched Streiby in Toledo and he was on base almost all evening. Oliver has a lot of potential and if we let Porcello go we’ll need some one like Andy to eventually fill in the gap left by Rick. And No he hasn’t [itched that well this season, but it would still leave a gap. Larish can go, but I would like to see the other two stick around
Welcome to Detroit, NO sissies allowed
This
My thing is that I don’t want to sacrifice system depth. If we give up one player (a Turner or a Crosby or a Porcello) for an ace, fine. But a healthy minor league system is crucial for major league team depth.
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Would a package...
Of Oliver, Porcello and Sizemore, with another mid-level minor leaguer thrown in be enough for Haren and Drew? I would think that would at least get negotiations started.
I think that'd be too much
I’d offer Porcello, Sborz and Fien for Haren straight up.
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Sborz stinks
I can’t see any team wanting him after his most recent performances.
Welcome to Detroit, NO sissies allowed
Minor league track record
And the D-Backs are desperate for relief pitchers.
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He had a bad outing; don't throw out the baby with the bathwater.
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I think they would be stupid not to do that. I still would like Drew to come as well. I know sizemore is doing well at AAA, but I would prefer Drew at SS and Worth/Carlos/Razor at 2nd
How would that be too much?
Porcello is awesome, but you’d be lowballing the hell out of the D-Backs with just Rick + some bullpen garbage (if they’re rebuilding, they don’t need immediate bullpen fixes anyway). We all love Rick, but without quality offerings outside of his fastball he’s 2008 Carlos Silva.
Does he have tons of upside? Of course he does. But getting Dan Haren has huge implications for the Tigers. The package it’d take to get Haren isn’t even close to what it took to get a rental of Cliff Lee. You’re getting an ace pitcher (what Porcello could hope to be at his peak) that’s under an excellent contract until 2013. That’s THREE AND A HALF YEARS of prime pitching years, at a reasonable rate, that coincide with the Tigers core’s prime years as well.
This would also allow the Tigers to spend on things other than SP in free agency (where a guy like John Lackey, a guy who’s two years older, is making 18 mil this season, and 3 mil more than Haren annually after that). Adrian Beltre? He’s possible. Haren is head and shoulders above anyone Detroit could get in free agency in the offseason. I just don’t see a lot of downside to it.
Even if Porcello were to pan out and become an ace (which is certainly plausible), if Detroit won a championship with a Verlander/Haren/Scherzer staff it would all be worth it. Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez turned out to be an amazing deal for Florida for Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell, but do you think the Red Sox would give the championship they won with Beckett for a return of Hanley? I don’t think so.
by ozymandius1024 on Jul 9, 2010 6:46 PM EDT up reply actions
sounds great to me
we may be able to get them for Rick and Scott alone, though
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It's been brilliant
to call up all the arms we have stockpiled in Toledo and Erie and give them a dress rehearsal of sorts. For one, they’ve pitched pretty well and two, it’s given teams a look at them, which, combining both circumstances, has put us in a great position to deal some of these overachievers-of-late for real, tangible pieces that are able to be had for cheap
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Damn,
how many trades does our team have to make with the D-Backs this year.
Does Willis really count? I mean it was a is this guy breathing for is this guy breathing kind of trade
Billy Buckner
His ability to take in oxygen, distribute it, and expel carbon dioxide is actually his best baseball skill.
Want!!!
Isn’t Haren sort of the guy that we hope Porcello turns into? Haren strikes out more than Rick ever will, and Rick gets more grounders than Haren ever will, but I don’t really see Porcello ever being markedly better overall than Haren. If this trade is basically straight up, with maybe a couple bullpen guys headed out, I’d love it. If they want to throw in Drew, they can have like three bullpen guys and a junk outfield piece.
Side note: If DD can spin some of these bullpen arms into useful pieces, his ridiculous bullpen fetishism might kinda make some sense. Maybe the crazy league-wide desire for hard throwing relief arms every deadline is the market inefficiency he’s trying to exploit.
Haren also has an OPS of 1.012 on the year. (.475 BABIP)
Career slashes of .231/.255/.339.
Not even sarcastically, the dude is as good a PH option as either of our catchers. Not that it matters in any real way. I just found it kinda funny.
On ESPN at 9 pm Monday...
Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik will be featured in an hour long special on ESPN where he will announce the winner of the Cliff Lee sweepstakes. Zduriencik has spend the past several days in talks with the Yankees, Rays, Twins, and Mets. The show will be broadcast from the Battered Mens’ Shelter in Stamford, Connecticut at 9 PM on Monday, just after the Home Run Derby is finished in Anaheim.
by Tigerdog1 on Jul 9, 2010 4:03 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Oh, I see what you did there
As long as ESPN reporters have received source confirmation that ESPN has agreed to televise it. ESPN will report more on ESPN’s plans when details from sources become available.
Really?
Are we really thinking of giving up on Kid Rick already? What do we expect to get back in return?
There's been some discussion of what we would get back above.
Presumably, some valuable players.
Hmmmmm...
The Lee Sweepstakes are back on apparently, so….
Haren for Porcello is intriguing but I really like Kid Rick and think he can bounce back.
I just hope DD doesn’t get trigger happy and end up tailspinning this organization by making a bonehead trade…
That being said, I’m not a DD hater, and have (moderate) faith that he will do something smart for winning now and in the future.
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by DetroitTigersGeek on Jul 9, 2010 4:13 PM EDT reply actions
Again
Haren for Porcello straight up is a fair trade, and I wouldn’t mind throwing in a few bullpen spare parts. But anything else…
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True. I really like Haren, but I really like Kid Rick too...
I hate confrontation!
And THANK EVERYONE for not mentioning that one trade long ago for that one Hall of Fame starter/ closer
(/cough Doyle Alexander for John Smolz /cough)
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by DetroitTigersGeek on Jul 9, 2010 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Too late, you triggered it.....
Smoltz for Alexander was a great trade.
- It led directly to the Tigers winning their division should’ve led to a World Series title after Doyle went 9- 0 with a 1.53 ERA.
- Alexander also won 14 games for the Tigers the following year, throwing 5 complete games and made the All Star team.
- Smoltz probably never would have made a difference with the Tigers, if he even made it through the organization without Bobby Cox and Leo Mazzone to guide him.
- Smoltz was drafted by the Tigers in the 22nd round of the 1985 MLB June Amateur Draft
- Smoltz was a minor league pitcher, and not a particularly great one at the time. Before the Tigers traded him in his second season in the minors, he had a record of 4- 10, an ERA of 5.68 and WHIP of 1.63 in 21 starts.
- After being traded, Smoltz struggled in the Braves’ system the rest of that season, going 0- 1 with an ERA of 6.50 and a WHIP of 1.75.
- The season after the trade, when the Tigers finished second with Alexander winning 13 games, Smoltz was in the minors, or going 2- 7 for the Braves, with a 5.48 ERA and 1.67 WHIP.
- The window of opportunity was closing for the Tigers in ’87. They were right to go for it. The Tigers finished second with Alexander in 88, last the following season, and haven’t won a division title since, never winning more than 85 games until 2006. Smoltz wasn’t going to make a difference on those lousy teams.
Wow - well said
I couldn’t agree more on all of these points. Alexander was a crucial pick-up who did what we hoped he would. I would make that trade again even knowing what we know now.
Absolutely
Better to take the proven star and win now than wait on a maybe star of tomorrow. Porcello could live up to the hype in a few years or he could end up in the same conversation threads as Andrew Miller. But Haren is proven, in his prime, and reasonable priced. A top three of Verlander, Haren, and Scherzer would make us division favorites for the next couple of years if they all stay healthy.
And I’d let Arizona have anyone from our minor league system but Jacob Turner if they threw in Drew.
I'll defend the Alexander-Smoltz trade forever.
Those that complain about it know nothing but hindsight.
Ryan Raburn antagonist.
Scott Sizemore liberationist.
hindsight includes a hall of famer going the other way and 20 years of misery for the Tigers
Would John Smoltz have made a difference for the Tigers through the 90s? Who knows, I’ve heard variations of Tigerdog1’s theme before, questioning whether Smoltz could have succeeded as a Tiger, or whether his presence as a decent starter in Detroit could have been used as a building block to bring in othre free agents, etc. If’s a giant game of what if, and we could spend ages going around and around.
Doyle got the job done, the one he was brought to Detroit to do. Sure, it took a collapse on the part of the blue jays along the lines of the Tigers choke job last year for that to happen, but the trade worked as it was supposed to for both teams.
But I can see why those who hate on the trade do so, because it didn’t deliver a championship and preceded nearly two decades of utter failure by the Tigers, while the Braves, led by Smoltz, won their division 14 straight times.
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Smoltz didn't do it alone.
Anyone who thinks Smoltz was the main or sole reason the Braves had their run is looking at it with too much weight given to the fact Smoltz was a Tiger.
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oh, absolutely
I thought I’d put Maddux and Glavine in that last sentence, guess I hit post before the thought had made it to my fingers. And that doesn’t even get into the lineup the Braves had.
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For the record...
I’m neutral on “That Trade”
Hindsight’s 20/20
No use looking back and dwelling on something that can’t be changed.
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by DetroitTigersGeek on Jul 9, 2010 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions
That's what I thought when I heard Ramos and Hicks
and thought again when I heard Montero and the Yanks package
Smoak, though
He and Montero are a mile better than anyone in the Twins’ system. Rangers also have a lot more options to fill out the deal with.
If both Montero and Smoak are true possibilities
I can’t see the Tigers, Twins, or Sox getting him. None of the three have a comparable piece.
RANGERS GET LEE
The Rangers will acquire Lee and Mark Lowe for Justin Smoak and three others, according to Sherman (via Twitter).
Oh it's on
It’s an homage to Jack Z’s AGM— The Hypnotoad.
ALL GLORY TO THE HYPNOTOAD.
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Here's the deal...
Seattle gives up Lee, Lowe, and cash (Rangers can’t take on salary)
Texas gives up Justin Smoak, Derek Holland, Jarrod Saltalamacchia and one more
Blake Beaven included in Lee trade
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Lonestar Ball reports
Smoak, Beaven, Matt Lawson and Josh Lueke.
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I get to go to a lot of Cliff Lee starts for the next few months
Yeah!
Also, Haren > Porcello, now and in the future.
by ChrisDTX on Jul 9, 2010 5:32 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Haren v Oswalt comparison
Three year splits:
Haren
45-27, 3.18 ERA, .239 OBA, 133bb/621k
Lee
41-24, 3.49 ERA, .267 OBA, 113bb/417k
Look for the red and white stripes
That’s how I do it.
haren for porcello?
both are very good pitchers, both had their problems through their careers but,it will be a misstake to trade porcello he has to be season,as far as, haren goes he is a vet, I say, if tigers want haren go for it, imagine, the rotation with verlander, max,porcello,haren, the 5th spot either bondo, or galarranga…………….let’s again, retain rick porcello, it will be a smart move!
The comma button
on your keyboard is probably going to wear out pretty soon.
drew???
the dude is hitting .269 with 4 hrs…whats the big attraction here? go get ramirez if u want an all star ss
Name value
That’s about it. And no, you can’t get Ramirez even with Detroit’s entire minor league system.
by ozymandius1024 on Jul 9, 2010 6:59 PM EDT up reply actions
remember,
pitching is the name of the game, especially, if cliff lee retains in AL hard to beat him but, again I would like haren then we have to backup on with verlander, max,haren,porcello,ether bondo or galarraga with that combo tiger counter attack cliff lee!
plus the top 5 prospects in all of baseball!
screw the fact that they’re on separate teams, that’s just about what it would take to pry HanRam away!
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by DetroitTigersGeek on Jul 9, 2010 10:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Cale Iorg may suck
But he doesn’t hurt us playing at AA.
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Free Scott Sizemore.
by David Tokarz on Jul 10, 2010 12:34 AM EDT up reply actions
I do too :)
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by David Tokarz on Jul 10, 2010 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Mistake to trade Porcello for Haren...
Unless we get Stephen Drew too. DD get ’em both or keep Porcello.
it's about 180 degrees from a mistake
porcello can only dream of becoming haren and without a strikeout pitch being developed — and it won’t be when the Tigers are forced to use him in divisional title hunts his first two years — he never will be.
by Kurt Mensching on Jul 10, 2010 12:06 AM EDT up reply actions
I kind of hope we get Haren.
After reading up on him, what can be expected, and his contract I am sold.
Ryan Raburn antagonist.
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trade?
How about trading Bondo and two top prospects for harren (since he is 29)- then we would have Verlander , Max, Harren, galarraga, and kid rick with turner wainting in the wings. Just an idea- I wonder?
Grant
why in god's name would they want bondo?
trades have to make good sense from both sides.
by Kurt Mensching on Jul 10, 2010 8:58 AM EDT up reply actions
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