Letting Zumaya and Guillen Go. Stop the Insanity
by momotigers on Aug 25, 2010 9:07 AM EDT
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So it's getting to be that time of year when the fans that haven't tuned out are dreaming of 2011. The threads these days are full of suggestions about who to ditch and who to keep. I just don't understand the idea of housecleaning players for nothing. Guillen and Zumaya are a couple of the players that seem to be under the gun lately:
Carlos Guillen: Our old friend Carlos is not a stranger to the DL. Each year, we are frustrated that he can't stay healthy so it feels like the masses are saying we should cut him. I really don't see the point in letting him go. He's shown on a consistent basis that he's good for about 300 AB's. He's a productive hitter, and he's passable at 2B and DH. The reason for letting him go seems to be that he gets injured a lot, and it doesn't make sense to me. If we can't get 500 productive AB's, then we don't want any? Does this translate to any other areas of life (Oh, you want to give me $30...well, if you're not going to give me $50, then I don't want any.) He's under contract for 2011...I think it's about 13M. Nobody will trade anything for him with that contract unless the Tigers eat most of if.
The ONLY reason that seems plausible to me is that his presence blocks the development of another player (and I guess it must be Scott Sizemore or Will Rhymes). I can buy this, but I think that if you have a guaranteed productive bat at 2B in a contending season (which we all agree that 2011 will be), you play him. <Insert your favorite other 2B here> can play 2B when Guillen is injured or in Toledo. I'm sure that they'll still get 300 major league AB's for an injured Guillen.
Joel Zumaya: See the above case for most of my argument here. Sure, we're probably not going to get more than 50 innings from him, but we might. In any case, they should prove to be a pretty effective 50 innings for about 1M or less. I'll take it.
The last time I checked, our 40-man roster wasn't busting with quality players. Our farm system may have some good prospects, but I think 2010 proved that it's not stocked to the level that we need to get rid of proven MLB options if favor of prospect development. (And I don't want to be a Pirates fan anyhow).
I'm all for purging players that are pending free agents if we can upgrade. I'm a fan and I have a spot in my heart for Damon, Inge, Maggs, and Laird (well, check that on Gerald). But, these guys are free agents. They're won't be cheap and we're not stuck paying them anyhow. If we can upgrade, than so be it...let 'em walk. Just quit suggesting that we cut ties with productive players that we have already agreed to pay.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Bless You Boys writing staff.
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I'd probably agree with you
Though I’m of the mind that Guillen is a DH now.
Assist. Editor, Minor League Division, Bless You Boys
Daniel Fields is better than you.
not even the DH position
can kepp Carlos from the DL. Eat the rest of the contract. Let him go.
I'm going down with this ship. I may as well, I got nothin' better to do.
by Detroitchik on Aug 25, 2010 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Why?
That’s my point…who cares if he gets injured? Letting him go is of no benefit to the team.
Granderson was my Tiger, then Sizemore, then Willis. Since they're all gone, I'm taking Raburn and hoping the pattern holds.
Exactly
If he gave us 100 plate appearances of even slightly above replacement play, that’s better than nothing.
Assist. Editor, Minor League Division, Bless You Boys
Daniel Fields is better than you.
by David Tokarz on Aug 25, 2010 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions
well we'er not really measuring against nothing, or replacement
we’re measuring against what replaces him on the roster. Is there reason to believe that, too, is above replacement? I sure hope so.
by Kurt Mensching on Aug 25, 2010 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions
That's true
But we’ve got to acquire said player first. If Guillen can produce at a decent clip at DH (.280/.350/.450) we’d be better off keeping him and using the money to upgrade elsewhere.
Assist. Editor, Minor League Division, Bless You Boys
Daniel Fields is better than you.
by David Tokarz on Aug 25, 2010 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions
No evidence so far that Guillen doesn't get injured at DH.
Seems that running and swinging the bat are as difficult as fielding for him staying healthy.
With so many vacancies around the diamond, I doubt that DD goes outside to replace Guillen if he were to be cut. Of all the positions on the field, I’d expect 2B to be filled internally before any other. I vote for keeping him, take what value you can get, and let him walk at the end of the 2011 season.
Zumaya is a little different. He should not get much, if any raise. Maybe there is an upside to be had, but counting on him to fill a late inning role- again- would be a big mistake- again. Could be worse, though. You could spend that million bucks or so on Brad Thomas.
If you survived 2003, you can get through this!
agree not even DH, guillen OPS by year
920, 859, 811, 757, 746, (2011?)
by Hack Johnson on Aug 26, 2010 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions
I think we should probably define productive
Because Carlos Guillen’s line from this season isn’t really that great. A .327 OBP? A SLG a shade over .400? How is that a quality/productive line from a DH? (he’s not a 2nd baseman, because his defense is completely terrible)
We’ve got a light hitting OBP DH option already and his name is Johnny Damon. Just because Carlos is making 13 million doesn’t mean he’s the best option for the club.
by ozymandius1024 on Aug 25, 2010 11:58 AM EDT reply actions
You're right, "productive" should be examined
Guillen’s current OPS is .746 (which is below his norm). However, there are only about 10 or 12 regular 2b’s with a high OPS than .746.
As for defense at 2b, I’m sure the advanced saber guys can find a stat that will show he’s crap defensively, but to the naked eye, he’s looked passable to me. In fact, I’m more impressed with Guillen at 2B than I was with Sizemore.
Granderson was my Tiger, then Sizemore, then Willis. Since they're all gone, I'm taking Raburn and hoping the pattern holds.
Here's your defensive stats
Fangraphs link
los Carlos is indeed below average defensively, but not horribly bad. 13th of 17 2B’s.
If you look around the league at what most contenders have at 2B, it’s become an offensively productive position. Cano, Pedroia, Hudson, Zobrist/ Rodriguez, Kinsler, Kendrick. I’d ride it out with Guillen for another year, and insert Sizemore, Santiago, or Rhymes as necessary. Worry about getting a bona fide SS this winter.
If you survived 2003, you can get through this!
I don't know if it's fair to compare Guillen to other 2B's...
mostly because even though it is his position, general consensus still agrees that Guillen is a DH at this point in his career, and would probably be his future position as well. That is who we should be comparing him too.
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A fair point, MP, but if you're the GM putting a roster together, you need a 2B, and you need a place to put Carlos.
Part of the equation here is that Guillen has expressed a strong desire to play the infield, and that seems to hold sway with Leyland, just as Inge, probably to an even greater degree, makes JL reluctant to put these guys in roles where they are less comfortable. There’s that, and the fact that the other options at 2B are no better.
Taking your point a step further, there’s also the ultimate comparison offensively, and that is where the player bats in the lineup. With Polanco gone, he was not replaced in the lineup by Sizemore, who hit 8th while he was up, nor by Guillen, who was already in the lineup, but by Damon who took his no. 2 slot. It’s a bit more complex than just comparing this 2B vs that 2B. With at least five, and up to seven vacancies in the lineup this off season, DD has more a game of scrabble on his hands than just replacing one guy here and one there. Carlos could be a very good hitter either at DH or 2B if DD went and got a solid bat to protect Cabrera, dropping Carlos to the 6 or 7 slot. Ideally, I’d like to see one of the infield positions filled by a player that could bat second, add some speed, and at least match Damon’s .360 OBP.
But the bottom line for me is that the $ 13 million is spent, and they’re not likely to get yet another player on the free agent market to fill the position if Guillen is gone. Carlos is better than the internal options, including, for the moment, Sizemore and Rhymes. When he makes his annual tripS to the DL, those guys will get a chance to work their way into the lineup. DD has enough on his plate this winter without adding 2B to the list- again.
If you survived 2003, you can get through this!
Oh, that was written better than my post to begin with
Kudos.
Granderson was my Tiger, then Sizemore, then Willis. Since they're all gone, I'm taking Raburn and hoping the pattern holds.
To frame the debate a bit
from a DH perspective, all DH’s combined have a slash line of .246/.326/.422 this season. That’s in over 6,900 PA. Carlos can better that, for sure. It’s a common misconception that a DH is a .300/.400/.500 guy. Not so.
by ChrisDTX on Aug 25, 2010 11:05 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
not so sure about the for sure part
he’s gotten worse each season dating back to 2006.
I think they should try to sign a solid DH-type hitter — they should have gone after Thome this past season — and if they get one, bye-bye Carlos. If not, well they’ve always got Carlos!
by Kurt Mensching on Aug 25, 2010 11:39 PM EDT up reply actions
You could well be right
But I’ve got faith that Carlos can at least beat the BA part of the slash.
by ChrisDTX on Aug 25, 2010 11:53 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Maybe even the OBP part too
If he stayed healthy (hah) he might beat the SLG too.
Assist. Editor, Minor League Division, Bless You Boys
Daniel Fields is better than you.
by David Tokarz on Aug 26, 2010 1:33 AM EDT up reply actions
Great Stat
But guess the number incorporates the fact that most every team has one season or another, had a washed up player with huge untradeable long term contract occupying the DH role. Carlos at 2nd holds back Rymes/Worth/Sizemore/Santiago all who are better (MHO) at this stage of Guillen’s Career when defense is considered. Ulitimately the best one of them (our luck) gets traded or released like Larish, to be solid in another city.
Beside that, i’m still angry at Guillen for mouthing off tho the Media about Leyland last winter. Also somehow not thrilled about his demands that baseball’s well paid hispanics get a team paid interpretor. On the other hand there would be a handful of new jobs as interpretor here in Michigan. Well anyway, hope Mr. Illitche’s injury insurance contract is Garanteed Renewable.
by Hack Johnson on Aug 26, 2010 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Who can we count on?
The problem with Carlos is we never know when we can count on him. Last year we let Polanco go, the man we could always count on, the biggest mistake DD made all year. Personally, I would rather see Maggs resigned and used as DH. I still agree with keeping Carlos and playing him at 2nd until he gets hurt. If someone else wins the 2nd base job next spring, Carlos can pinch-hit and share DH time or they can try to trade him later.
Well
We’re on the hook for the rest of Carlos Guillen’s contract regardless, so it would be preferable to get him to waive his no trade clause. He might very well retire, or maybe we could convince someplace warm to invite him to DH.
Hopefully we can do this with tact, because I remember the organization saying they wanted Carlos to work in their minor league system when he retires as a player.
DH
The only problems I foresee in 2011 with Guillen, is that it sounds like Damon wants to stay and come back to Detroit. If we move Guillen off of 2B then we’ve got a timeshare with two players with no real platoon split.
I’m not sold yet on Sizemore or Rhymes.
...
The fact is that we are stuck with Guillen, it was another bad contract given by DD. I see no point in keeping both Guillen and Damon, if they were both pending free agents I would say only sign one. But Carlos has a year left so Damon may be the odd man out, regrettably. Personally I prefer Damon over Guillen only because last offseason Carlos complained about not playing in the field and only DHing, so he seems to be a pain in the ass. Honestly he just cannot handle the field anymore, his value is with his bat and him playing in the field is a detriment to that because he runs a higher chance of being injured.
With Zumaya I see no point in not signing him, it might just be my opinion but 1/2 a season of near bullpen dominance is worth his roughly 1 mil. price tag. And maybe if we can limit him a little more he can make it through a full season. Not signing him would be a huge mistake DD would be getting rid of another fan favorite. With so much money coming off the books this offseason im sure they can find a million to shoot Zumayas way.
Appreciate Carlos
Carlos has provided the opportunity for the Tigers to get extensive looks at Worth, Rhymes, and especially Boesch this year that probably would not have happened without his visits to the DL. This is a major legacy of his for the future development of the roster. In his own way, he has done as much for the future as Damon’s mentoring. Repeating the same likely role next year will be a good use of the money we have to pay him anyway.
Also not every infielder would have risked himself to complete the double play with Gardner.
Odd, but true
Maybe a new nickname is in order Los Opprotunitor
Granderson was my Tiger, then Sizemore, then Willis. Since they're all gone, I'm taking Raburn and hoping the pattern holds.
Hitters never stop hitting
Damon AND Guillen are professional hitters. Since there is no loyalty among fans anymore we should just let them go? Carlos has given some exemplary batsmanship here in Det for many years. He deserves the right to complain about DHing. If we want to be winners next year we need these guys bats. They know how to work a pitcher. Most of the young guys need to learn this. At least one more year!
Red
You know what hitters who can't field anymore do?
They DH.
It’s unfortunate that Guillen can’t accept that, but that’s where he’s at. Hitters do stop hitting though, and that’s called their decline phase (which Guillen appears to be fully entrenched in). He may not be hitting well this year because of injuries, but you can’t use that excuse because Carlos isn’t ever healthy.
I think there is loyalty among fans, but it’s loyalty to the Detroit Tigers and always trying to put the best team on the field. If there are better options (especially upside-wise) at 2B in the system, then Guillen should be DHing. He’s being paid very highly to play pretty poorly, so I don’t know why he’d complain about being a DH.
by ozymandius1024 on Aug 27, 2010 7:44 AM EDT up reply actions
Exactly
If he whines, offer him a utility job.
Assist. Editor, Minor League Division, Bless You Boys
Daniel Fields is better than you.
by David Tokarz on Aug 27, 2010 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions
$13M/Year for 300 ABs with Declining Output?
I venture to guess that these funds would be better utilized elsewhere. We need a real 2B, real SS, real 3B, real DH. Not a bunch of nice guys whose better years are behind them, or whose major league performance may never materialize.
Guillen is being paid that much money no matter what
if he’s traded, the tigers will end up paying most or all of it to get someone to take him, i’m sure. if he’s released, they pay it all anyway.
by Kurt Mensching on Aug 30, 2010 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions
unless there's a salary swap
Carlos Zambrano, anyone? lol!
If you survived 2003, you can get through this!
yeah, didn't you want the tigers to get in on Bradley?
by Kurt Mensching on Sep 4, 2010 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions
Ooooh...I like this game!
Who else?
The Silva for Bradley salary swap has worked out well for one team.
Granderson was my Tiger, then Sizemore, then Willis. Since they're all gone, I'm taking Raburn and hoping the pattern holds.
Random question
I watch/follow hockey a bit too (Go Carolina) and recently the Hurricanes bought out our old captain, Rod Brind’Amour and gave him a job in the front office. So my question is as follows:
Could the Tigers restructure Guillen’s contract (say, $4.5mm or $5mm over the next 3 years) and ask him to retire to take a job with the front office? Specifically, I’d ask him to run an academy in Venezuela or somewhere else in Latin America (so we give him a slight pay increase for that job and pay his salary over time). It works for the Tigers because we get a high profile (relatively) player to run a player development facility in an area we’re normally weak in. It also takes advantage of our ties to prominent Venezuelan players to aid in player development. It also allows Guillen to get off the field while still staying in baseball, helping the Tigers and getting paid. Methinks he’s sick of the trainers table.
Anyways, I’m just spitballing here. It probably isn’t likely, but it’d be interesting.
Deputy Editor, Bless You Boys
Free Scott Sizemore!
I like the idea
but there’s no chance Guillen would do that. He doesn’t want to DH, let alone leave the ballpark.
The NHL's collective bargaining agreement has a provision for buying out contracts at 2/3 of their value.
They also have a hard salary cap, and half of the buyout cost goes against the team’s cap when they buy out a player’s contract.
There is nothing that prevents a club and a player from reaching an agreement to modify the terms of his contract. That is more likely to happen if the player really wants to retire, and they reach an agreement on a buyout.
Realistically, though, the Tigers have to be relieved that all that money is coming off the books this off season, and Guillen’s $ 13 million is really the only “bad” contract left on the books after this year. (Unless DD is dumb enough to pick up the options for Ordonez or Peralta, which I don’t put past him). I think we see los Carlos back at 2B next year, pulling some DH duty as well, and they’ll phase in Rhymes or Sizemore behind him and have a ready fill in when he goes on the DL.
I also think that, when Carlos signed his contract, the model was Miguel Tejada’s contract in which he was paid $ 60 million over 6 years, a couple of them being non free agent seasons, and finishing up with 10, 12, 13, and 13 mil per year, just like Carlos got in his deal. I said at the time that I thought it was a year too long and the club got no discount for guaranteeing all that money. As it turned out, the contract went bad the moment that Carlos moved off shortstop. He still could hit, but the real value was a shortstop that could hit that well. He lasted only one more year at SS and led the league in errors yet again. I think that DD knew the risk he was taking and is probably okay with it now, especially since it’s the last of the fup duck contracts. Let’s hope he’s learnt his lesson with extensions.
If you survived 2003, you can get through this!
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