2010: The Anti-2000

The Tigers are .500 at Game 126...where do I remember this from? Oh yes, 10 years ago.

Of course, we took very different paths to get there.

See Chart:

All told, if I had to pick 63-63 seasons at Game 126, I'd go with the one with likeable players, lots of injuries, and lots of rookies over Damion, Deivi, Tony the Tiger and Juan-don't-he-go-fuck-himself Gone.

Strange that the outcomes are so similar between these two seasons. So let's have a quick reunion tour...

The Guys:

Discussion:

The quick glance at the rosters makes it a no-brainer. 2010 is a much better team, which was derailed by injuries. Peralta didn't arrive until the trade deadline, meaning shortstop and catcher were replacement-level all year. When I line these guys up, the 2000 team has a lot going for it, actually.

Catcher: Ausmus (who started 150 games for Detroit in 2000) was solid defensively and got on base (.256/.351/.355, .707 OPS), even leading off when called upon to do so. Laird and Avila (combined .208/.285/.301, .586 OPS) have been playing almost exactly at replacement level this year.

1st Base: Miguel Cabrera over Tony Clark and the 100 1st basemen who followed him that year (go ahead, try to name them all from memory - there's nine) is too obvious.

2nd Base: This one's tough. For Tigers fans, Guillen>Easley is one of those agree-upon-ish things. But it's kind of close. By Game 126 Easley was .262/.363/.421 over 92 games; Guillen is a not-so-different .273/.327/.419 over just 68 games. Defensively Easley has the edge. Of course, our 2010 second baseman hasn't been Guillen half the time; it's been a collection of what we can get from Carlos plus Rhymes, Sizemore, Santiago, Raburn and Worth. If we put Easley through Game 126 up against the collective effort of 2010 2nd basemen (.269/.331/.408), it's still edge-Easy.

3rd Base: Brandon Inge versus Dean Palmer is opposite day. Inge is by far the better fielder (do you need a link to know that? Really? Go away). Now, hitting, I remember Palmer as a guy with an average uh...average, but with scary power. At this point in the season, Dean2000 was .262/.342/.479 (.821) with 26 homers. Nice. Inge so far: .262/.336/.413 (.749), 8 home runs. So yeah, do you want Palmer's power or Inge's glove? I call it a wash.

Shortstop: Yet another position cobbled together in 2010, until we picked up a Major League Baseball Player (TM) in Peralta at the deadline. But since the point of this exercise is to see if we're really good enough to finish better than the 2000 team (was that the point? it is now), I'm putting Peralta (.243/.309/.400 with DET and CLE) up against Deivi Cruz. It's still no comparison. Cruz was hitting .296/.314/.438 at this point with a .752 OPS, and was on a doubles streak. His bad ankles meant defense was a bit more sketchy, and meant it would be stupid to sign him to a contract extension (natch) but he was more valuable in 2000 than Peralta projects for 2010.

Left Field: Ready? Set? HIGGY! Remember when the Yankees wanted to pick him up at the trade deadline in 2000 and we balked because he was so great and all? Well, by this point in the season he was .295/.375/.543 (that's .918 OPS for the arithmetically challenged), a stellar fielder with a cannon for an arm, and a week from turning 30 (which is not old, says the guy who's 30). I went with Boesch here, who is .275/.335/.463 (.798) and an average fielder. It's Higginson.

Center Field: This one was always going to be Jackson because I like Jackson and I never really trusted Juan Encarnacion and his bag of tools. But you tell me: Door No. 1 has a guy hitting .292/.332/.442 (.773); Door No. 2: .308/.378/.474 (.852). The first guy has 13 homers, the second guy just 2, but I don't care: give me the Rookie of the Year over the toolbag.

Right Field: Both the 2000 and 2010 teams had aging potential Hall of Famers with fading power and defense who got hurt. Juan Gone was hitting .301/.348/.537 (.885) with 19 homers while complaining of the long fence, nursing boo-boos and eyeing the exit; Magglio was hitting .303/.378/.474 (.852) with a lot less power. But I'm playing my bias card and saying I'll take Magglio over Gonzalez because Juan made those around him worse. As for their replacements, when Juan whined we got Encarnacion in right and Wendell Magee in center, whereas Magglio has Raburn backing him up.

Designated Hitter: Johnny Damon or Luis Polonia. Luis was nice. Damon: trust me.

Bench: Raburn, Santiago, Rhymes, Worth, Kelly -- all have done a lot of starting due to injuries. They go up against Shane Halter, Rich Becker, Wendell Magee, Jose Macias and Rob Fick. The bench situation in 2010 has favored middle infielders, but the lack of a power bat to call upon like Becker or Fick is concerning. This favors 2000.

Starters: Justin Verlander and Jeff Weaver have been compared, and Weaver has been found lacking in every category except "was once traded for Jeremy Bonderman and Carlos Pena," which if Verlander wanted that he could have it too.

Scherzer versus Nomo is more interesting, since both have been fantastic at times and horribly inconsistent throughout. Nomo was 5-10 with a 4.95 ERA; Scherzer is 9-9 with a 3.73 ERA. So, not really as close.

Brian Moehler was the solid man, with a solid 4.12 ERA and a solid 11-7 record. Armando Galarraga is 4-5 with a 4.21 ERA, but with a perfect game to his credit. This hurts because I would think Galarraga would finish the season stronger based on past performance, but based on performance to this point Mo was better. While Brian Moehler would never ever threaten to be perfect, he also barely ever walked guys. Pick 'em.

The last two spots aren't worth arguing. Whatever you think of Porcello this year, and Bonderman for that matter, you would not want Mlicki back and Steve Sparks is basically Bonine.

Setup Men: We lost Zumaya or this would be a runaway. Instead, we get Coke and Brocail. Dougie was at 4.17  with a .286 BA against, and lost his job to Matt Anderson right about now (trivia: Shane Halter pitched in the 8th inning in 2000). Phil Coke: oh, just a 2.42 ERA over 52 innings. I'll have the Coke.

Closer: Jonesy had his best season in 2000, with a 2.88 ERA and already 36 saves to 3 blown. So was that enough to knock off the Potato? Valverde's 2.68 holds up but his 24 saves, while mighty, are not Jonesian. Ultimately, as good as Jose has been for us, he's just below the season Jones was having. On the other hand, Jones was hitting his peak right then, and my cardiologist says I'm not allowed to have Jones as my closer ever again. Wash.

Bullpen: This was the year you could always trust Danny Patterson (3.26 ERA, 4-1, 11 holds by Aug. 24), and resident lefty C.J. Nitkowski had a blog in 2000, which was cool especially because he wasn't an evangelist yet and so was talking about baseball on it, but if you count Phil Coke's double-duty as resident lefty, or even if you go with Ni, 2010 is better. Matt Anderson as young fireballer was having about the same season as our young Ryan Perry. As long relief man, Willie Blair did not provide relief like Bonine. Nelson Cruz, however, had a torrid August, and was a better middle option than Enrique Gonzalez.

So all told, which 63-63 team is better?

At the positions, the 2010 team is 4-4-1 versus 2000, basically a wash. The 2000 team gets a slight edge on the bench, meaning 2000 was a slightly better hitting team, overall. In pitching, 2010 kills. All told, I think the 2010 squad is a lot better, that the injuries caused the uncharacteristic slump, and that while this recent winning streak can't last any more than Ryan Raburn's hot bat can go a whole season, but we do have a team that is likely to finish above the 2000 team that was 79-83 with a Phythagorean W-L of .500. In other words, on today, the day we have reached .500, I'm here to tell you we are a better team than .500. Capable of winning the division? No. But in a fight between our demons and our better angels, I think we have a fair fight.

* proverbial, not actual door-slamming, which 2000 Todd Jones wins handily.