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Around SBN: Pacquiao vs Bradley: Potential Undercard Fighters

Scoring shocker: Tigers doing fine after Ordonez's injury

What if I told you the Tigers were not just scoring runs, but scoring them better than almost every team in the American League? Sounds crazy, doesn't it? Yet that is the case.

With one game left in the month of August, the Tigers have scored 136 runs this month. That puts them 15 behind the league-leading White Sox, and nine behind the All-Star laden Yankees. Not too bad, hey? For all their struggles, for all the injuries, for losing Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen, for spending half the month playing against pretty strong opponents, Detroit still found ways to score.

August is actually the highest-scoring month of the season for the Tigers. They put 126 on the board in June and 120 in April. Of course, scoring runs hasn't helped their winning percentage greatly. In June, they actually gave up more runs than they scored yet had a .556 winning percentage to show for it. (A harbinger of losses to come?) In August they've scored more runs than they've allowed yet have just a .464 winning percentage. (To be fair, they only crested that hill when they won 10-4 on Sunday.)

How did this happen? In a name: Miguel Cabrera. In two names? Ryan Raburn.

Star-divide

The two batters alone combined for more home runs in the month than the entire Oakland A's lineup. Cabrera continued putting up potential-MVP numbers with a line of .304 average, .467 on-base percentage and .598 slugging average. He hit seven home runs and walked 28 times.

Raburn, meanwhile, absolutely loved the month of August. With an OPS of 1.010 (.323/.374/.636) and seven home runs. He led the team by driving in 21 RBI. For Raburn, the final two months of the season have been a very, very good to him recently. Last  season he had an OPS of .957 in August and 1.108 in September/October.

A few more keys: Newcomer Jhonny Peralta may be hitting just .229 (.701 average), but he does have four home runs. Off the bench, Donny Kelly has a .341 average (.901 OPS) in 42 plate appearances, along with three home runs. And hey, even Brennan Boesch homered for the first time since June.

Now, the important thing to remember is that none of these stats is -- well, OK. excluding Cabrera's -- is any guarantee of things to come in September.

Now, if Detroit can just get the starting pitching to stay hot and the bullpen to join the fun ...

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Is Raburn for real?

For some reason I still don’t buy it

In the 8th grade Mike Ditka won his school's Science Fair with a model of a working volcano. There were 17 other working volcano's made that day, but only one named Mount Ditka.

by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on Aug 31, 2010 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'd say yes

There isn’t much hard statistical data that can answer that question definitively, but I’d say yes for the following reasons:

1) His BABIP isn’t an outlier. At .304, he’s right around league average (where he should be). It’s not like he was Brennan Boesch in May/June with a BABIP around .400.
2) Continuing use of BABIP (because I like it and it’s fun to say), if you go to his splits at First Inning, you can see that it’s about where it should be throughout the year. The difference between then and now are regular plate appearances, and there’s at least anecdotal evidence to support the idea that consistent plate appearances leads to better performance.
3) He’s hitting less grounders and liners and his HR/FB is currently at 10.5% as opposed to the 17% it was last year. Even if we assume it sits at around 10 for his career (which would be fair given his career numbers) then his current line of .254/.319/.446 is reasonably accurate.
4) Raburn is also walking slightly less and striking out slightly more than last year. Even if we concede the strikeouts (which is iffy considering he struck out at around 20-22% when he was still getting consistent PA’s), the walks should come up from the season number of 6.9, especially considering he put up walk percentages closer to 10 (between 8-9%) in Toledo. In fact, his August is reverting to that norm, with a K% of roughly 24% and a BB% of 7.5%. To me, that’s a reasonably fair indication of overall talent after you examine his minor league numbers.

Another factor to consider aside from batted ball data and performance is Raburn’s pedigree. BA ranked him 8th in the Tigers system in 2005, which isn’t horrible. If it wasn’t for his ATV accident (no, seriously, look it up) he probably would have made the show sooner. I also know that Baseball Prospectus has been touting him as a potential role player/starter since 2007 (it was my first annual and I virtually memorized all the Tigers player cards).

In short, yes. I am much more satisfied with Raburn’s statistical profile, pedigree and even scouting background (at least as far as offense goes) then most players that get hyped around here. I keep saying that he’d be the perfect candidate to be a super-utility player due to his versatility with the leather (he stinks everywhere equally). There’s value in not only preventing a huge dropoff between “regular” and “bench player” but in Raburn as a whole. He’s one of my favorite Tigers, too.

Deputy Editor, Bless You Boys

Free Scott Sizemore!

by David Tokarz on Aug 31, 2010 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions  

One quick correction

He’s getting lucky on balls in play currently- that contributes to his high BA, so that’ll probably fall off.

Deputy Editor, Bless You Boys

Free Scott Sizemore!

by David Tokarz on Aug 31, 2010 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions  

I hope you're right!!!

In the 8th grade Mike Ditka won his school's Science Fair with a model of a working volcano. There were 17 other working volcano's made that day, but only one named Mount Ditka.

by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on Aug 31, 2010 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'm always right

:D

Deputy Editor, Bless You Boys

Free Scott Sizemore!

by David Tokarz on Aug 31, 2010 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

I was wrong once

I thought I was wrong about something, and I wasn’t!

If you survived 2003, you can get through this!

by Tigerdog1 on Aug 31, 2010 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

yeah

at raburn’s cost, there’s really no reason not to keep him around next year. But if the team is betting on him being the answer then I’m getting concerned.

by Kurt Mensching on Aug 31, 2010 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

Again

Super-sub. Great player to fill in in case of emergency, can absorb 500 at bats that would normally go to a lighter hitting utility guy (Rhymes, for instance) and can play 5-6 positions AND emergency catcher.

Deputy Editor, Bless You Boys

Free Scott Sizemore!

by David Tokarz on Aug 31, 2010 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

super sub is fine with me

but it’s not whether you or I decide that, it’s whether they do.

by Kurt Mensching on Aug 31, 2010 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

That's pretty much what I'm saying.

They really need to address the lineup in the 2, 3, and 5 spots. Maybe Magglio can return, pick up where he left off, and fill one spot. Damon brings only a good OBP, but no glove, no speed, and no power. He’s more easily replaced.

Just don’t start writing in Boesch or Raburn and pinning your title hopes on them. Boesch has some nice upside, and Raburn gives some insurance in case he bombs out.

As for “super sub”, Raburn is inadequate in the infield, especially at 3B. He consistently boots a 15 % of the balls hit to him, both in the minors and the majors. At 2B, that rate drops to one in 20 balls, and this doesn’t say anything about turning the DP, or making a play up the middle. He’s an outfielder with decent skills and poor instincts. He actually plays best in CF, based on his history.

If you survived 2003, you can get through this!

by Tigerdog1 on Aug 31, 2010 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

what the tigers should do based on stats

If you look carefully, you will find out there are 12-2, 7-1, and 9-1 victories and 1 run losses. In close games, the RISP is a horror show. What they should do is identify the good RISP in CLOSE games and play them. A 100% Guillen, batting LH is a good example. Ryan Raburn, now, is another. A 100 % Ryan Strieby, Cabrera, of course, Rawley Bishop at Erie after a slow start, and Boesch in the beginning are others. Will Rhymes and Brandon Douglas could develop that way. We’ll see about Casper Wells and Andy Dirks. We’ll also see whether Scott Sizemore has it. Why Brandon Inge doesn’t do it anymore is a mystery to me. Also look at the hitters where BB vs. K is closer rather than Dlugach’s #’s.

by StephenGrosberg on Aug 31, 2010 10:45 AM EDT reply actions  

they scored their most runs of the season in August

the fear being the loss of Ordonez means they can’t score.

The man didn’t pitch and didn’t field all that well either. So nothing’s changed on that side of the equation.

by Kurt Mensching on Aug 31, 2010 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

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