Has the time come for the Tigers to wave the white flag on 2010?
by BigAl on Aug 4, 2010 1:54 PM EDT
in Detroit Tigers Analysis
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PrintI'm a bonehead. I admit it. At the All-Star break, I said the Tigers would win the Central division. Then the last three weeks happened.
Post All-Star break, watching the Tigers has been comparable to being slapped the face with a cold, dead fish...every day.
After splitting a twin bill yesterday, the Tigers are five seven games back of the Central division leading White Sox. They remain nominally in the division race.
But does anyone still think this flawed team, ravaged by injuries, can realistically contend? I was one who did...the operative word being "was".
Anyone else still believe? Anyone?
OK, there's a few of you left...but there are less and less of you each day. I don't even think Dave Dombrowski believes his team is a contender, going if you go by his only trade deadline pickup, Jhonny Peralta. Peralta is a player the Indians were thrilled to trade away, even for only pennies on the dollar in return. But Peralta is better than the Tigers' current alternatives...which is faint praise. Very faint.
I've tried and tried and tried to be optimistic about this team over the past three weeks, but the outright bad baseball the Tigers have been playing (especially on the road) have me believing the Tigers' chances of making the playoffs are smaller than the chances of Miguel Cabrera winning the Triple Crown. With teams pitching around Cabrera pretty much at will, as he's been the only offensive threat in the everyday lineup since Black Saturday, his Triple Crown chances are jack and squat...and jack left town.
I'd be more confident the Tigers could stay in the divisional race if it were only two teams vying for the lead. But it's (again, nominally) a three team race, as the Twins are only a game and a half back of the White Sox. And that's what will make it much harder for the Tigers to gain ground. The slowly sinking Tigers have to leapfrog a pair of teams they historically struggle against mightily, year in, year out,.
Remember, it's not only the Twins and Sox who give the Tigers' fits. They have been known to play below the level of the other two teams in the Central, the Indians and Royals. The Tigers are five games under .500 within the division..barely above the team with the worst intra-division record, the Royals, at six games under.
Out of the many reasons the Tigers' season is all but over, their divisional play may be the biggest. They play like utter crap within the Central...and did so even with a healthy roster.
And the Tigers have to jump over two teams?
Not going to happen. Not with the roster in total disarray.
According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, the Tigers' payroll for 2010 stands at $133,995,400. Yet the Tigers, despite their bloated payroll, have absolutely no depth whatsoever. Sure, injuries are partially to blame for the lack of depth, but much of it is due to Dave Dombrowski's roster mismanagement. Jim Leyland is being asked to play career minor leaguers in the middle of what we're supposed to believe is a pennant race.
Dombrowski needs to be asked this question every day by Mike Ilitch.
"How does a team with a payroll well north of $130M have no depth on the bench, and worse, even less in the minor league system, and over $23M in dead money?"
I'm not even sure Dombrowski himself can come up with a decent answer. At best, all he can say, "Them's the breaks, boss."
So should the white flag be waved on what's left of the Tigers' 2010 season? Uh...well...OK, I"m just going to say it.
Yes.
I hate to say it, but the white flag needs to be waved...vigorously.
I'm not a huge fan of selling off veteran ball players for prospects, as prospects rarely pan out. But it's worthwhile to make it known you are willing to talk.
A team desperate to get over the hump might make a tempting offer for Johnny Damon or Jeremy Bonderman, to name the Tigers' most attractive trade chips.
If I'm Dombrowski, I'm listening. You just might luck your way into filling one of several roster holes for 2011.
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Can I get a "Wait until the end of this series against the White Sox" option?
Then I looked again at their remaining August schedule, so I’m resigned to say the season is over.
My two favorite teams are the Tigers and Brewers. Drunk tigers. That sounds about right.
Me in 140 characters
This lineup is so weak
Just to show how week this lineup is, I watched tonight’s game( Aug 6) and Leyland had Damon DHing. Damon has faced Weaver 24 times and struck out 10 and was batting .154. Plus Weaver is particularly tough against left handed hitters. So, who else could have DH’ed?? Don Kelly…. lefty, rookie-like… NO….. Santago, switch hitter….MMMmmmm….. NO…… Jeff Frazier…. rookie, righty….Ummmm probably not, Laird?….. can’t even bat his weight…. So Damon is the BEST??? choice….OMG! My how the mighty have fallen. We have youth on our side, but nothing else right now. Can’t hit a lick ( 4 hits tonight woo hoo!)
by Phenomenal Bob on Aug 6, 2010 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Making the playoffs...
is not really a reasonable possibility. Even if by some miracle they won the division, the smart money would take the sweep at the hands of NY/Rays/Rangers anyhow. Getting into the playoffs is an accomplishment, but what cost post-season?
This is a perfect opportunity to gain a little depth, or even a serviceable player or decent prospect. A few teams would love to have Damon, and a fifth starter like Bondo could be crucial down the stretch as workloads for young pitchers become a concern (I’m looking at you Mat Latos)…
Whoever wins the division will play NY/Rays/Boston
Unless the Angels go on a miracle tear to win the Wild Card. Even if we’re swept out in the first round, it’s still a division championship, something I’ve literally never seen before (born in November ‘87). Personally, I think it’s worth gunning for. I’m happy we didn’t sell the farm at the deadline and I’m excited to see what these kids can do. There’s no reason to sell now.
A year without Boston or New York in the postseason?
Don’t toy with my dreams. ;_;
by metatron5369 on Aug 4, 2010 3:07 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Sorry about that, guys. Fixed.
Still an optimist at heart, I guess.
I'm owner/editor of The Wayne Fontes Experience a deputy editor at Bless You Boys and co-host The Knee Jerks podcast.
whats wrong with being an optimist?
There’s 2 months left and a bunch of baseball. I’m not waving a flag until the Tigers are mathematically eliminated. Granted the odds of the Tigers going on a tear are small, but there’s still a chance.
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by rock n rye on Aug 4, 2010 2:28 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
I refuse to waive the white flag
There’s way too much baseball left to be played. Remember that we were 7 games ahead of everyone on September 6th last year, and 3 games ahead with just 4 left to play. Bad memories aside, no matter what happens this year we can always look back 12 months and say “crazier s**t has happened.” A good run and we’re right back in this race. Hell, we’re due for a hot streak like Minnesota and Chicago have both already had this year.
And if we go on another losing streak and drop another 7 games out of first, then let the young kids play to get some experience. There are 162 games in a season; even if you’re not in contention for all of them, they all can be useful in one way or another.
Watch who still catches us
The way Cleveland is playing right now, they might catch us on our free-fall. Who’s next, Baltimore??
by Phenomenal Bob on Aug 6, 2010 10:38 PM EDT up reply actions
They made a WS appearance that very year.
This isn’t over until the magic number is 0.
In a long distance relationship with the Tigers--and, yes, we're doing fine.
I love the Pistons headline in the bottom right corner
That was the year they got beat by San Antonio in the NBA Finals.
Big difference
In calling a season on June 1st versus August 4th.
My head says "It's over!", my soul says "Grind it out!"
I still don’t think the White Sux are this good. I’m still waiting for them to fall, and hard. Inge will be back soon. That helps, not that much, but a little. Guillen comes back and that helps a little more.
I have become a fan of Damon and I don’t want to lose him. Bondo has pretty much taken himself out of the market with his retirement talk (would put faith in a guy who says he’s going to quit at his age?)
DD should ride this out. Payroll is going to drop. Pick up Ordonez for 1/2 the price without the option. Back fill the depth chart and play for 2011. 2010 was planned to be a preparation year for 2011. The first 1/2 of the year the team competed more than expected, then the Grim Reaper slashed his way through the team and we’re aren’t competing anymore. This gives lots of experience to people like Rhymes and Weinhart and that will pay off in the future.
The Tigers are 7 games back with 50 or so games to play. They are a .500 club (a little worse than I expected). The starters are all okay. There is strength in the Pen (when it’s not totally exhausted). The line up will be stronger in the next week or so.
Grind it out!
Never give up...
Never surrender!
by metatron5369 on Aug 4, 2010 3:04 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Galaxy Quest FTW
Assist. Editor, Minor League Division, Bless You Boys
Daniel Fields is better than you.
I'm still not sure why they felt the need to spend 130M in what was clearly a transition season
But I suspect that was Ilitch’s doing so any question asking by him should be answered in the mirror.
They didn't have much of a choice
Other than the $15 million or so devoted to Damon and Valverde. I like the veteran leadership they (namely Damon) have brought to the team. Even if we don’t win the division and make the playoffs, a year’s tutelage under a guy that’s won multiple champioinships has to count for something. You can’t tell me Austin Jackson hasn’t learned something from Damon this year. And who knows, maybe we will keep Damon around for another year or two.
^This!
Like Rob said, we really only added about 15M in free agents that weren’t owed money anyway. I’m tempted to think that adding these two guys has actually padded Mr. I’s pocketbooks. When you consider that we were very close to first place for about 90 games, I think there are a lot more butts in the seats and drinking $8.50 beers than there would have been without Damon and Papa Grande.
The thing about Detroit is that, even in tough times, the team will draw close to 3M if they can stay close to the top through August/September (2.6M in 2006 and 2009). In a poor year, we’re much more likely to draw 1.3M (2003). An extra 1.3M visitors should translate into…I’m guessing…30-40M more in revenue..at least?
Maybe the trick is to make your fan base THINK you can win. Heck, our best year ever was cruddy 2008, but once again, we stayed close for a half season and fan confidence was high. Damon and Valverde went a long way toward making fans feel like we had a chance this year. I bet they’re worth every penny.
Granderson was my Tiger, then Sizemore, then Willis. Since they're all gone, I'm taking Raburn and hoping the pattern holds.
I didn't even think of that
I’m confident the Tigers would have pulled well over 1.3M fans this year even without Valverde and Damon, but the contending factor has to play a part in how many people have gone to the CoPa this season.
Because they clearly had a shot at winining this lousy division, until Magglio went down.
$ 75 mil was tied up in bad contracts going in, another $ 20 mil to Cabrera, 13 mil to Verlander- and it was not unreasonable to add $ 9 mil for Valverde and $ 8 mil for Damon. Now that million bucks they gave Brad Thomas was just plain silly!
Wait til next year, again.
The fact that I believe there isn't a snowball's chance in hell that they will make the playoffs
doesn’t mean I’m going to stop watching. I love watching the rookies, hoping they progress over the course of the season. I love watching Miggy, Johnny and Jhonny (Honor Our Veterans!). I’d love to see us in the role of spoiler this year, much like KC has been for us the last few years. The great juggernaut of suckiness will overwhelm the moments of brilliance, but I’ll keep watching to see those flashes. I don’t think anyone on the team is phoning it in — I believe each of them is giving 100%, so out of respect for that effort I will keep watching.
"I see great things in baseball. It's our game, the American game. It will repair our losses and be a blessing to us." Walt Whitman
No one said anything about watching
There’s always reasons to watch. But my expectations have been lowered exponentially. This team isn’t winning anything, and being a spoiler is all they have left…that, and seeing if they have anything at all in players like Rhymes and Worth.
I'm owner/editor of The Wayne Fontes Experience a deputy editor at Bless You Boys and co-host The Knee Jerks podcast.
Maybe "watching" wasn't the right word
It’s more like “enjoying the season for whatever it is” Eight teams make it to the playoffs, which means 22 don’t. We’re still much better than a lot of teams out there, so there will still be unforgettable moments.
"I see great things in baseball. It's our game, the American game. It will repair our losses and be a blessing to us." Walt Whitman
As soon as we get our guys back from the DL
We will have one of the deepest lineups not seen since the Yankees of 2010. It is late int he game but there are signs of hope. Like Inge coming back today!
Simple Analysis
Tigers will need to win about 90 games to take the division.
They are currently 53-53.
They would need to go 37-19 the rest of the way.
So, they are about one 16 game winning streak away from getting back into it.
“But if they win 16 games in a row they will surely be in first!!!?
not if the White Sox or Twins go 9-7.
All that said, happy with what the Tigers showed this year, as it bodes well for the future.
2011
I’ve been waiting for 2011 since the end of the 2009 season. The fact that the Tigers were in contention for as long as they were is the biggest surprise of the season to me. I looked at this year as being all about finding out which of our rookies could hack it so Dombrowski knew how best to spend all the bad contract money coming off the books next year.
German's bombing Pearl Harbor????
come on now! even i know that was the Japanese. U might want to fix that also payroll is 130m not 130k but thats minor in comparison. I think we can wait another week to wave the flag but the championship flag is almost ready to get bleached
No, I think this guy is entirely serious
And I also think he needs to watch more classic movies
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Maybe I should be jealous instead of snarky, then?
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No way
That movie is on my “Top 10 Must See” list. Not getting the Germans bombing Pearl Harbor reference is shameful.
Franklin German?
Granderson was my Tiger, then Sizemore, then Willis. Since they're all gone, I'm taking Raburn and hoping the pattern holds.
Animal House
Is one of those comedies that you are required to watch at least once in your life, even if you hate it, just so that you can say you watched it. Others on the list are Caddyshack, Ghostbusters and Coming To America (feel free to add to the list).
My two favorite teams are the Tigers and Brewers. Drunk tigers. That sounds about right.
Me in 140 characters
Comedies?
Stripes, Fast Times at Ridgemont High, American Graffiti, Used Cars, Tin Men, Rocky Horror Picture Show, and H.O.T.S.
If you survived 2003, you can get through this!
Newer additions
The Hangover, Old School, and Wedding Crashers. And how could you two forget Tommy Boy?
Tommy Boy.
Great call. I would vote Anchorman over Old School, but perhaps both should be on the list. I have a soft spot in my heart for 40-Year-Old Virgin as well (I don’t remember laughing that hard out loud at a movie theater before).
Besides Tommy Boy, was there any great comedy to come out of the late 90s? I’m just asking here.
My two favorite teams are the Tigers and Brewers. Drunk tigers. That sounds about right.
Me in 140 characters
I so want to hit anyone who uses 'u' rather than you.
Ryan Raburn antagonist.
Scott Sizemore liberationist.
Not looking good, but too early to rule them out
Twins caught us last year with the same deficit and a fraction of the time without Morneau. They also caught us in 2006 when they were about 10 back at around this time. This year, Chicago has already come back from a 9 game deficit. We still have two months left. I will say our hopes lie on disaster striking the other two teams, but I think there’s a good roll in this team still.
while I agree in theory
I’d have a lot more faith in the ability for the twins to catch the tigers than the ability for an injury depleted tigers team to catch anyone ahead of them. I think you have to side with the Twins knowing how to win in September, given they picked up half the division titles in the past decade.
by Kurt Mensching on Aug 4, 2010 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions
I somehow reached a cathartic turning point yesterday
We are not going to win this year. And I am okay with that. We cannot win, or even contend, every year. The vast majority of teams go home in October. What I will do is enjoy the team, enjoy the wins we do pull out, enjoy Miggy’s insane season, enjoy Papa’s dances, enjoy Brandon being absolutely irrepressible and yet totally goofy, enjoy Samara’s cartoons, enjoy the game threads and the rally creatures and the photo-shop insanity, and the fact that every time I meet another Yankee fan, I am more and more impressed by how awesome our team and our fans are.
there's a difference between waving the white flag
and knowing that we probably will not win the division – the weakest division.
I still expect them to win every game I watch = no white flag.
Still some of my absolute favorite years in baseball was going to Tiger Stadium – CF bleachers of course, in the 70s. The expectation was not that we had a World Series team — it was just to win the game that you were at – period.
AND FUN no matter what. We loved those guys, Kaline, Cash, Aurelio, Fidrych, HOrton, LeFlore, Ernie and Paul Carey and Ray Lane and George Kell. ETC.
That’s where my head is at — we ain’t going anywhere, but let’s still enjoy the trip.
I'm pretty sure...
That’s what double-d was doin when his big trade deadline move was gettin JP, I mean he’s been pretty descent, but no pitching? I mean this staff was in trouble goin n2 the season with D-train & really an unclear 4th & 5th guy, Bondo has done alot better job than I thought he would. And then relying on Zumya to play a whole season, c’mon Dave you couldn’t have seriously believed that would happen could you? And we seriously needed a bat, I mean some power, not lets wait & see if Inge or guillon comes back & starts pulling HRs out of their a$$, cuz that’s where they’d be coming from, c’mon pay attention, to the season, not last season cuz this clearly isn’t Inge’s season a year ago when he somehoe hit all thos Hrs, well maybe the 2nd 1/2. Get somebody good next year. Don’t make a couple of moves & expect that to be enough, we knew Everette sucked, we know Laird can’t hit, fix the problems they’re odvious.
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