Is this the Tigers' 2011 free agency "wish list"?
by BigAl on Sep 7, 2010 2:05 PM EDT
in Detroit Tigers Analysis
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PrintWith the 2010 Tigers playing out the string, the local media is beginning to stir to the hot stove pot.
Sunday, Detroit News columnist Lynn Henning put together the Tigers' 2011 free agent "wish list". The players Henning believes "presumed to be of interest to the Tigers" are, in (I'm guessing) order of preference ..
- 1B/OF Adam Dunn
- C John Buck
- C/1B/DH Victor Martinez
- OF Jayson Werth
- SP Ted Lilly
Every one of these players have their pluses and minuses, but they are realistic targets for a team in the Tigers' situation...unlike Rays OF Carl Crawford, who will be the apple of the big market teams eye. Not that the Tigers shouldn't try , as Crawford would be a GREAT fit.
Unfortunately, his contract will be at a Yankees-Red Sox level of insanity in both cost and length. But Crawford might be worth a crazy money deal, and we know Mike Ilitch isn't afraid to break out the checkbook for the right player. Regardless, signing Crawford is a long shot. Not an outrageous one, but a long shot all the same.
Dunn is a player many fans have been hoping the Tigers would pursue (including myself) since his days as a Red.
First and foremost, Dunn is a left handed bat with pop, long a need for the Tigers. His massive power and high OBP would make him the perfect player to bat behind Miguel Cabrera. But there's a caveat. Dunn should only be used as a DH, as he makes Ryan Raburn look like a multiple gold glove winner on defense....which is why Dunn may opt to stay in the NL, as he is long on record as not wanting to pigeon hole himself as a DH.
If he's willing to DH, Dunn would be number one, with a bullet, on my list of players the Tigers should target.
Buck may be the number one catcher hitting the market. But keep in mind he's in midst of a career season, having set career highs in average, RBI, SLG and OPS. Buck's career OPB is an ugly .299, and even in his contract season, it isn't much better at .304. Buck is going to be on the bad side of 30 next season, and we all know catchers rarely age well. Buck would be fine if the Tigers didn't have to overbid in cash and contract length for his services...which is a big concern, as even finding a league average catcher offensively is damn hard to do. Buck is going to get paid.
In many ways, Buck reminds me of better Gerald Laird. Laird was fairly solid offensively in his walk year with the Rangers...and we know how awful his bat has been since coming to Detroit.
Martinez is another catcher on the bad side of 30 (older than Buck) who would be much better served playing as a 1B or DH...which isn't going to happen on the Tigers. You could get away with Martinez playing part time behind the plate...but where would you play him the rest of the time to take advantage of his bat? Something to keep in mind, as Martinez is not going to come cheap.
Werth is intriguing, even if he's a bit of a head case. He's a good fit on the Tigers, as Werth is a proven corner outfielder, a position currently in flux on the Tigers with Magglio Ordonez being a free agent and Brennan Boesch hitting well under the Mendoza line after the All-Star break. His bat isn't as powerful as Dunn's, but Werth can play defense, unlike Dunn. Werth capable of playing all three outfield positions ...and the Tigers do need an outfielder.
Werth would be solid get for the Tigers. But he's also going to get a contract offer for more than he is likely worth. That's the cost that comes with plugging roster holes via free agency.
Lilly was rumored to be eyed by the Tigers at the trade deadline, before position players started dropping like so many flies. With the likelihood Jeremy Bonderman will not be coming back, the Tigers definitely have a need for a veteran arm at the bottom of the rotation. Lilly is a consistent innings eater who can be counted on for double digit wins, and just an importantly, has had some success in the AL, though his best statistical seasons have been in the JV...uh, rather, NL, With a top three of Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello, Lilly would be a very nice fit...and even better, he's left handed.
Again, the question comes down to the size and length of the contract it's going to take to sign the 34 year old Lilly. I'm very leery of giving pitchers long-term deals, and I would hope Dave Dombrowski has learned his lesson when it comes to giving bottom of the rotation guys big contracts. You have to wonder if a two year deal would be enough to get Lilly to sign. At two years, Lilly would be a good get. Longer than that...the deal becomes risky.
I'd like to hear the BYB readership's take on Henning's wish list. Does his list make sense? Too ambitious? Not ambitious enough? Someone not on the list you think should be?
Go at it in the comments!
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Gimme some Werth
I agree that Dunn’s bat is a great fit for the Tigers’ lineup, but Werth’s five-tool overall game would be extremely helpful and something the roster lacks.
Lillly would also look good in the starting rotation, for all of the reasons mentioned.
Buck would be a terrible decision.
Going to be reeeeal expensive because he’s had a pretty good year…
I'll take
Vmart, Jason Werth and Lilly
I'm going down with this ship. I may as well, I got nothin' better to do.
oh and maggs
I’ll always take him, if his ankle heals properly, he’d got a season or two left in him. For sure.
I'm going down with this ship. I may as well, I got nothin' better to do.
I'll pass on VMart
He’s good because of his stick at catcher, but he can’t catch. Interesting. He’ll demand high money from a team that will try him a catcher. I hope the Tigers aren’t that team. I’d rather count on Avila developing a little with the bat and saving the boat load of cash.
Granderson was my Tiger, then Sizemore, then Willis. Since they're all gone, I'm taking Raburn and hoping the pattern holds.
Werth and Crawford are the two unrestricted free agents that are complete players that could fit in the 2 or 3 slot.
They’ll also be the most sought after free agents on the market, and that usually means that DD won’t even pick up the phone to look at the price tag. Both players bring the ability to get on base, power, speed, and solid defense, with varying degrees of emphasis. Werth figures to be a bit cheaper, but still expensive.
What the Tigers need is three solid producers in the 2, 3, and 5 slots, regardless of position. If you start by giving one spot to Guillen at 2B, holding another for Boesch, Raburn, Wells, or Thomas, that leaves five vacancies at SS, 3B, RF, DH and Catcher, and one of them will have to bat 2, 3, or 5. If you bring back both Inge and Peralta, then V Mart is a must. Infielders that can bat atop the order aren’t out there in abundance, and there are none on the FA market except maybe Beltre. DD better be working the phones for a trade for an infielder. Bartlett and Maicer Izturis are two guys coming off rough seasons that formerly batted second with success, and they may be available. Throw in Garza or Napoli, respectively, and DD could be a one stop shopper!
If you survived 2003, you can get through this!
Free Agent Starting Pitchers- the No. 1 need this off season
The Tigers have the 11th best pitching staff, and rotation, in the American league.
Andy Oliver isn’t ready for the majors, because he can’t command any breaking pitches yet.
The Tigers need a starting pitcher that can be slotted in the 2 or 3 slot behind Verlander, and maybe Scherzer, depending on how well Max does next season. That would push Galarraga to the five slot, and young Rick to the four slot, giving him time to hone his skills. Most of the free agent starters are not this caliber. Most are maybe good enough to hold a spot in a rotation, but that’s about it. A select few are actually top half of the rotation pitchers.
Cliff Lee, Ted Lilly (A), Bronson Arroyo, Carl Pavano (A), Hideki Kuroda, Andy Pettite (A), Brandon Webb, Jorge DeLaRosa, Vicente Padilla, and Javier Vazquez (A) are possible top half pitchers, and we’re really stretching this list at the end.
Free Agent starting pitchers that I’m much less interested in would include Freddy Garcia, Kevin Millwood (B), Eric Bedard, Jon Garland (A), Kevin Correia, Ben Sheets, Jeff Suppan, Jake Westbrook, Rich Harden, and Aaron Harang.
Once you get past Cliff Lee, there are legit questions about each of the others. Lilly (.255) and Arroyo (.242), in particular, seem to have an unsustainable BABIP. They’re candidates for regression. While I don’t fully buy into the sabermetric theory that a low BABIP is all defense and luck, there is a measure of truth in that forecast. They’re also NL pitchers, but both have pitched in the AL previously, with some success. Lilly being a lefty adds a little bit, but I’m not as left brained as most on that topic. Having a lefty is not a necessity, or even an urgent need, IMO. Give me a guy that gets hitters out and don’t limit the search to lefties.
Arroyo has an $ 11 mil option with the Reds, and they probably don’t want to pay him that, but some team will so they’d be wise to pick up the option and trade him for something. May not take much with the 11 mil attached. But the 11 mil is better than 2yrs for 20 mil, IMO.
Carl Pavano is not unfamiliar to the Tigers. He shunned the Tigers for less money in New York, spent the whole four years of his contract on the DL, then came off and has owned the Tigers since coming to the AL Central. The Twinkies traded for him BECAUSE he beat the Tigers so easily. He’s a Type A free agent, and the Twinkies are likely to offer arby as they did last year (and he accepted). DD would have to have a contingent offer on the table for two or more seasons to land him. If the Tigs are in the bottom 15 teams (currently 17th), they would have to give the Twins (ugh) our second round pick. I like the thought of messing with them, though. And I like Pavano as much as any of the others not named Lee.
Kuroda is 35, requires no compensation as a condition of his contract, and is likely going back to the Dodgers for less money. But he’s good. Whether he’d come east is unknown.
Pettite will sign with the Yanks or retire.
DeLaRosa has a 16 win season, but gaudy WHIP numbers every year, and an ERA that’s perennially north of 4.
Vazquez exercised a no trade option and vetoed a trade to the Tigers from Arizona (for Zumaya) previously, and I think is overrated. He’s been banished to the Yankers bullpen, but has done some good work in Chicago and New York. I’m not sure why he makes this list, maybe to make it an even ten. The Yanks will not offer him arby for fear that he would accept.
Padilla is a bit under the radar. Not sure if the Dodgers will bring him back. He has a rep as a bit of a head case, and has done some head hunting in his day. But he has a WHIP of 1.08 and an ERA of 4.07. He spends time on the DL every season, but gets his 100 IP in most years.
More likely, IMO, that DD will try to work a trade. You could move Arroyo over to the trade category if the Reds pick up his option. Matt Garza, Ricky Nolasco, anyone on the Pirates within two years of free agency, Wandy Rodriguez, and many more that have a year or so left of arb eligibility before hitting the market could be on the block.
If you survived 2003, you can get through this!
by Tigerdog1 on Sep 7, 2010 2:52 PM EDT reply actions 3 recs
good rundown
given the market cost of free agent SPs and the uncertainty involved in projecting them, I’d agree that trade is the right route to find he top 3 starter the Tigers will be hunting for
None of the above
Crawford and Werth are probably too expensive.
Dunn is pretty old and, with Guillen around to suck up some DH time, probably not a good fit.
Buck and Lilly are obvious no-nos. Guys coming off career years should be avoided entirely.
The biggest needs are SS and 3B. If Jose Reyes is available he should be targeted. He’s 28 and would be an awesome pairing with Jackson at the top of the lineup.
Actually, Dunn is only 30.
Hard to believe since it seems like he’s been around forever. He’s about 6 months YOUNGER than Werth, and less than two years older than Crawford. And he’s a hell of a hitter who’s been remarkably consistent throughout his career. I’d love to see him in the Olde English D (but only as a DH)!
Crawford, Pavano, and Alex Gonzalez
Alex Gonzalez should be the Tigers’ number one target. Would I expect him to repeat this season next year? No. But his defense is elite, and his bat will be at LEAST average at the position. He may be expensive, as he will be the best SS the tigers have a chance at, but the money is definitely there to spend this offseason.
We also need another SP to go with JV, Scherzer, and Porcello. I would love to see Lee, but if the price is too high, Pavano would be an excellent get.
I want to stick with G-Money for next year at C.
As far as OF goes, of course we all want to see Crawford in the D… he would be a perfect fit, and even if the price gets pretty high, I think this team is close enough to winning that we could lock him up and it would be worth it. There is so much money coming off the books this offseason it would be crazy not to make a big move or two. Or at least make an attempt.
A lifelong Tigers fan
My take
1) Dunn: I love him, but I think that it will take extra money to get him to play in the AL. Incidentally, I actually think he’s an acceptable 1B, but we’ve got one of those, so it’s probably not going to happen. No real prediction here, but I think that the Nationals will be motivated to reach a deal with him. I might guess Dodgers, since Loney’s contract is up, but the McCourt divorce could forestall any Dodger moves this winter. Note that Prince Fielder will likely gum up the market for Dunn.
2) Buck: Please don’t. It’s a bad idea, so I’m going to guess Royals.
3) Martinez: This one seems like the most plausible. I think he’ll end up in the AL, our catching is…questionable, and I think the bigger market teams might be tied up with Werth and Crawford long enough for us to get him, if he’s impatient. Also: Venezualan. I feel like the Rays might try, as well, since their catching depth is not great, they’ll have an opening at 1B owing to the (probable) loss of Pena, and they’ve got some money coming off the books.
4) Werth will go to a loser of the Crawford sweepstakes. If they’re a contender for Crawford, put them here.
5) Lilly: Guh, please no. Is he really the best SP on the market this year? Too early to call, but my guess is that he’ll end up on a team that has an end-of-season/post season pitching meltdown, and will be brought in as “veteran help” to “stabilize a young rotation”. Or somesuch. That or the Brewers, for whom even a bad Lilly year would make him at least their #2.
I don't want to hear any weak sh*t from Jason Grilli.
I don't get the John Buck hate
He seems to be a pretty solid bet to produce an 85 OPS+ or so, which is just a mile better than either of this team’s catchers. I can certainly see a scenario where a bidding war gets him a silly-money deal, and I don’t want him for anything over 3/$14 or so. But I’d much rather have him than Victor Martinez for twice the price.
I’d like to see Magglio resigned, and a buy-low deal for James Loney or Nyjer Morgan. Maybe even Brandon Webb?
Career year, catcher on the wrong side of 30.
Ingredients for disaster.
Ryan Raburn antagonist.
Scott Sizemore liberationist.
An ex-KC catcher? Please.
I watched Buck play since he came to town in the Carlos Beltran deal. He had a bit of a reputation as a defensive catcher who the Royals hoped would develop some pop.
Why the Royals think anyone would develop power in that ballpark is beyond me – it says something that the team record for HR is 36, set by Steve Balboni, of all people. I was at the Tigers game last Friday night and overheard some fans talk about that some of their hitters would develop into 30-HR guys. Um, no. Hasn’t happened in 40 years, ain’t gonna happen now.
Anyway, once Buck finally showed that he wasn’t going to hit .270 with occasional power, the front office finally lost patience and cut him last winter. Oddly, they did the same thing with Miggy Olivo, who is also having a career year, but in Colorado.
by HawkeyeEdward on Sep 8, 2010 12:33 AM EDT up reply actions
Need a solid DH, don't really want Lilly, Hernandez, Reyes
Dunn not coming to DH only so he out, I will certainly take Konerko if he wants to be a DH. Berkman might be next on the list but have to careful because his production has dropped off. Tigers have to wait to see what options are exercised. Reyes of course if Mets do not exercise his option. Hernandez for a one or two year contract. Tigers should make a run at Lee, Werth or Crawford making the other teams overpay. Wonder what outfielder will be available if Yanks sign Crawford?
Lynn Henning is persona non grata in my RSS feed
Ever since his utterly ridiculous string of columns in the 7 days comprising Izzo-gate, I can’t stand mention of the guy.
That said, more Dunn, please.
Not crazy about the list
-I would really like to see the Tigers grab either Dunn or Werth off of this list, for many of the reasons above the other three scare me.
-I would really like to see DD make a splash by moving on one of the few young, talented, malcontents that have emerged this season. Greinke, Kemp, and Rasmus have all shown displeasure with their current clubs and might be had in a reasonable trade.
I wouldn't be surprised if a trade happened in the off-season.
DD likes to make deals in the off-season.
Ryan Raburn antagonist.
Scott Sizemore liberationist.
i'd take a Greinke
we’d have to ship out a young arm or farm team to get him, but then it is the royals, so they might accept our Gulf Coast or NE short season club.
i like the thought about going for the talented malcontents – i’d love to see Kemp roaming our LF.
by GreatGooglyMoogly on Sep 7, 2010 7:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Sigh
We landed a lousy year to have a ton of money coming off the books. One of the weakest free agent classes in recent years, especially in the pitching department. I’m surprised Henning didn’t list any infielders. Does he really think we’re going to be running Inge, Peralta, and Rhymes as our starters left of Cabrera?
More and more often, the best players are either extended by their clubs into their free agent seasons, or traded before they ever get to the market and then extended.
Signing free agents is the least cost- effective way to build a baseball team. Nobody knows that better than Dave Dombrowski. No GM in the league has signed fewer free agents or spent less money on free agents since the 2006 season. DD has preferred to hand out lavish extensions to players that are already in the organization, or trade for players and then extend them. He has been on the extreme end of the spectrum both in large extensions and few free agent signings.
This winter had better be different. DD had better be signing a free agent position player to a multi year contract for the first time since he signed Ordonez to a multi year contract before the 2005 season. He’d better be signing a free agent starting pitcher to a multi year contract for the first time since he signed Kenny Rogers before the 2006 season.
DD’s complete list of new free agents over the past four winters is very underwhelming: Jose Mesa, Francisco Cruceta, Adam Everett, Brandon Lyon, Matt Treanor, Jose Valverde, and Johnny Damon. He came out of his shell last winter when he signed Damon and Valverde, and Valverde is the only multi year contract that DD has given out in four seasons. But it took trading Granderson and Edwin Jackson, and letting Polanco, Lyon and Rodney walk away to clear payroll space for them. If the Tigers are going to contend, DD needs to be a player in the free agent market once again, just like he was before the 2006 season when multi year contracts were given out to Pudge Rodriguez, Magglio Ordonez, Kenny Rogers, and Todd Jones.
If you survived 2003, you can get through this!
I think we'll see a combination of trades and signings.
I have a feeling this will be a big winter.
Ryan Raburn antagonist.
Scott Sizemore liberationist.
I would look at Martinez, Werth and Lilly as the three I would want off of this list…Dunn I think would only DH on this team,,I like John Buck but a FA contract to him would have to be very careful…I was surprised Adrian Beltre was not mentioned as a fill in @ 3B.. Again, same as Buck that would have to be a contract short on term and likely heavy on $$$$..
But, I do agree with others some action will come from the trade front as well…to fill in some of the holes….
If I were the Marlins, that conversation would start with Verlander.
by HawkeyeEdward on Sep 8, 2010 12:36 AM EDT up reply actions
The Marlins want players that are cheap. It would have to be another "pick six". Just let them pick any six guys from the Tiger farm system.
If you survived 2003, you can get through this!
Why is it?
Why is it that DD is a genius signing Maggs, Pudge, and Kenny Rogers? We remember the way they performed, but not the baggage they came with? Maggs was “injury prone” and would never see a full season. Pudge was “over the hill and never going to hit like he used to”. Rogers had the “serious attitude problem and was not consistently effective”.
Who is out there that, like Maggs, Pudge, and the Gambler, DD will take a chance with?
DD built in escape clauses in the front end of the contracts of Ordonez and Pudge, as well as options on the back end.
The escape clauses were targeted to allow the Tigers to void the contracts if specific medical conditions prevented them from playing. They had medical records and physical exams to verify that the problems they had were likely to be okay. Magglio actually missed a good part of his first season with a completely different injury.
Kenny Rogers was an All Star (in Comerica) in 2005 and had his incident with the camera man. DD didn’t make much of that incident.
Those three free agency signings for multi years were successful. But each of their options or extensions was not.
A similar signing might be Brad Hawpe as a DH who has been injured this year but can hit to all fields. Carl Pavano has a checkered injury history with the Yanks but has had a great season with Minnesota. Brandon Webb has been out the last two years, but may be one of the best free agent pitchers if he’s healthy.
If you survived 2003, you can get through this!
The Tigers have enough talent ready to avoid ANY free agency or trades unless some team wants one of ours like Granderson and Edwin Jackson. Congrats TIGERS. THE LIST OF POTENTIAL IN THE MINORS INCLUDES JACOB TURNER, ANDY DIRKS, L. J. GAGNIER, ZACH SIMONS, DANNY WORTH, BRANDON DOUGLAS, RYAN STRIEBY, THAD WEBER, ADAM WILK, AND RAWLEY BISHOP. Will Rhymes and Alex Avila will develop with playing time as will Andrew Oliver. I’m sure they could make better use of the AFL by substituting some of the players mentioned. The Twins and White Sox brought up a # of players recently, most of whom don’t approach Dirks/Douglas and Weber/Gagnier/Simons/Wilk. PLAY THEM AND LOOK AT THE STATS TO DETERMINE THE DIRECTION TO UNLEASH THE POTENTIAL.Please no more Damon and more of Dirks/Wells/Raburn.
by StephenGrosberg on Sep 8, 2010 10:01 PM EDT reply actions
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