Dombrowski's Dilemma: 2011 Payroll Mathematics

It’s Ilitch’s money and he’s not getting any younger or poorer. Let the guy have his fun while he (and we) can enjoy it.

I expect Dombrowski will go hard after Beltre (who is DD’s favorite type of free agent: a Boras client) and another free agent as well as make at least one blockbuster trade, like he did last off-season for Austin Jackson/Scherzer and previously for Cabrera.

Money is no object for the Tigers this off-season. They will be the big dogs on the free agent auction block and on the trade market.

Woof-Woof!

Big cats.

if you count backing into the playoffs and losing the Division to the Twins on the last day of the season in 2006.

. . . would you nontender the likes of Zumaya, who makes essentially nothing, and who pitched very well this year, apart from breaking our hearts and his with another injury?

$2.1M instead of $21M? (For the 5 minimum salary guys)

Trade for/sign a bunch of buy-low guys. Matt Kemp (to DH), Justin Duchschererererer, Nyjer Morgan, Javy Vazquez, Bill Hall. That sort of thing. If half of that works out, you have plenty of money to replace those who don’t. Unless Cliff/Craword are genuinely on the table, the best course for next year is probably the cheap one.

No trades necessary, unless someone wants our player like an Edwin Jackson or Granderson. Boy did we get the best of all that. We have all the players we need. Rhymes and Avila are there and will improve with playing time as will Raburn, Wells, and Boesch. Andy Dirks and Brandon Douglas are ready to challenge them all. As for pitchers, Simons/Gagnier should be given a chance to prove they should be protected vs. Frazier/Dlugach. Weber, Furbush, Oliver, Turner, and Wilk should get a chance to compete for #4 and #5. I would try to sign Inge. If they follow my advice with Ryan Strieby as the DH and playing time combined with rest and exercise, he’ll be a star. Rawley Bishop should also be given a chance. GIVE ALL THE PLAYERS A CHANCE IN THE AFL AND SPRING TRAINING AND THE REST OF THE SEASON. If I’m wrong, then sign others. If I’m right. it will be a great 2011. Look at the players the Twins recently brought up. The Tiger minor leaguers that I mentioned above are far better. Stop not appreciating Rhymes. Let Boesch look for a reasonable pitch on the first 3 INSTEAD of working the count. Danny Worth may make it, especially against LHP. Look at the players in Lakeland and below to promote like Corey Jones and Cole Nelson. Wade Gaynor may be ready to move faster. The Tigers won’t know until they promote them now and in the AFL. Stay tuned. At least we have a Big 3 a Big 4 relief pitchers.

Nice to hear from you JAYRC. Frazier/Dlugach can be waived providing 2 spaces. All the DL players can be moved to the 60 day. I really only want to see Simons/L. J. Gagnier with the Tigers now to help decide the Rule 5 problem. Andy Dirks would be a bonus to help decide whether help is needed in the OF. The other names can be sent to the AFL instead of Martinez. What’s left should get a big look in spring training. I’m hoping Damon will not be back. It’s important to understand that any player, who doesn’t show potential like Ketchner, Leon, and Drucker is taking space from an Erie player and thus a player in every League. They kept Robbie Weinhardt and Thad Weber at Erie too long. It’s all a game of comparisons. Brandon Douglas is better than Henry, Martinez, Ciriaco or Dlugach. I’m ALWAYS ready to give a comment. By the way, always liked Will Rhymes for all the obvious reasons and BB vs. K , which is the reason I don’t like Dlugach. I would promote Corey Jones and Cole Nelson to Erie to see.Identify the BEST prospects and promote them. There’s great potential at West Mich. and lower. Just look at the stats. Ryan Raburn and Alex Avila are great examples of talent that can avoid overpayment in a trade or free agent. I wouldn’t pick up Ordonez either. I can’t be completely sure unless I see Dirks in the AFL. How about Dirks or Brandon Douglas there instead of Martinez or Ryan Strieby . We KNOW Strieby is a hitter without the AFL and the rest plus exercise will do him more good. A 100% Ryan Strieby is probably the best potential DH on the team. I only need the 100%. Keep squeezing that ball and not swinging too much. A 100% Strieby vs Damon—no comparison.

Thanks Tigerdod1. I’ll pick a 2,3, and 5 from Ryan Raburn(Look at what he’s doing now), Will Rhymes #2(when Jackjson gets on with 0 outs, Rhymes gets him to 2B. When you have a big 3, every run counts.), Andy Dirks(get him to AFL), Casper Wells, and Ryan Strieby at DH if he’s 100%(Let me talk to him and he’ll be 100%. I’ll pay for the best ortopedic surgeon, who knows exercise also, Matt, Kurt, and JAYRC know my email. Rawley Bishop should also be given a chance at DH. I don’t want Damon or Ordonez or another team’s pitcher. Robbie Weinhardt will take care of #2 if they want to start Coke, they need to prove out Chance Ruffin first. Jacob Turner may be more ready than Porcello was. The Tigers don’t need to trade for a SS, C with what they have available. I feel Ramon Santiago is much better than he’s given credit for. My sleepers are Danny Worth and BRANDON DOUGLAS at EVERY level. Look at what Andy Dirks did at a higher level. YOU HAVE TO TEST THEM AT HIGHER LEVELS TO REALLY SEE. Alex Avila has taken great strides as a fielder and catcher and has patience. Who knows, Max St. Pierre might be a decent hitter. I wouldn’t trade Rhymes for a less than 100% Guillen. If DD follows some of what I rec., he’d save Mike alot of $ AND have a much more exciting team. My strategy, however requires playing time NOW, AFL., and Spring Training.

Tigerdog1, I’d use the 60 day DL now as well as Dlugach/Frazier for L. J. Gagnier/Simons/Dirks, and Brandon Douglas. If there’s more room, I’d try Rawley Bishop too. Will Rhymes and Danny Worth enable them to cut Dlugach.

Let’s work on Andy Dirks for the AFL, not Martinez. If they follow my advice on Ryan Strieby, Dirks can take his place and Brandon Douglas can take the place of Martinez. The more playing time they get, the better able we will be to make a great decision. $00K vs 65K for the best player is not a factor. All the players I mentioned from Adam Wilk to Thad Weber to Rawley Bishot to my best Robbie Weinhardt are my favorites, not Cabrera, Damon, Guillen(unless he’s 100%),Thomas, Perry. I commented on getting Coke in 2008 when I saw his 2008 Yankee #‘s. I LOVE what Will Rhymes and Ryan Raburn are doing. Andy Dirks won’t be an Ordonez, but he’’ll be good. Right now, Raburn is outperforming the Ordonez stats, but others are ignoring it. Avila has learned to be a catcher. Next… I greatly appreciate your comments Tigerdog1 I’ve been commenting the same way for 2 years now on www.t75n.com. Look in the archives. MattinToledo has been GREAT!!

Start Adam Wilk At Toledo and we’ll see. Even I don’t profess to Know until I see the stats at higher levels. They HAVE to earn it. They promoted Cole Nelson and Jared Wesson with excellent results. They’re slow with Dirks/Wilk/DouglasSimons/Gagnier. I’ve thoroughly enjoyed this post and learned a great deal from Tigerdog1 and others. . My offer on Strieby still goes. Hope the Tigers are listening. I won’t give up on this one, until someone in the know tells me I’m wrong. Ryan Strieby could be the player just as Boesch was in the beginning until someone told him to work the count. Next season, I’m looking for Ryan Raburn to start stronger. I aso hope to see Dirks and Wells competing. If Strieby is 100%, the Tigers wii take the Division, without additional help other than the players I mention. Stats will still be my guide with the proper promotions.Tigers, promote to see.

Until someone else steps up or someone wants one of ours, this is my tentative position player roster: Guillen DH until a trade away or Strieby/Bishop step up, Inge, Worth Rhymes, Santiago, Cabrera, Avila, Laird or St. Pierre, Raburn, Jackson, Boesch(Don’t be afraid to swing at the first 3 pitches if they’re not Way out of the strike zone—no need to work the count), Dirks Wells. If any player , but Cabrera goes day to day, he’s put on the shortest DL to make room for Kelly/Douglas or any other hitter who develops like Jeff Rowland/Billy Nowlin/Bryan Holaday/Wade Gaynor/Nick Castellanos/Robert Brantly. No Damon, Peralta, or any free agent except Inge. If anybody’s interested, I’ll name the pitchers or where to bat the hitters. Since a great deal of money will be saved, I would save it for a TOP free agent, like Cabrera at a different position POSSIBLY.

well done!

“Guillen DH until a trade away or Strieby/Bishop step up, Inge, Worth, Rhymes, Santiago, Cabrera, Avila, Laird or St. Pierre, Raburn, Jackson, Boesch, Dirks Wells.”

Looking forward to seeing if my players play and produce vs. the ones that play instead and don’t produce. Stay tuned on Tigerdog1, JAYRC. Mattintoledo, David Tokarz, and Kurt Mensching, since they have the best posts. I’m looking forward to Weber/l. j. J.Gagnier/Wilk/Turner/Oliver/Villarreal/Simons/Cole Nelson etting a chance to show their stuff vs. Dlugach/Frazier. The first step is Gagnier/Simons vs. Dlugach/Frazier.

Thanks Tigerdog1 on Dirks replacing Strieby in the AFL. Now for Brandon Douglas for Martinez. THE KEY FOR ALL TO HEAR ON STRIEBY IS REST, EXERCISE, LIMITED HITTING, REST, more exercise, more than limited hitting etc. The key is not overdoing it as he did last time. Strieby has nothing to prove except health. He’s a hitter.

Thanks Hack Johnson. What about Adam Wilk, JAYRC? You saw him at Lakeland. Sizemore gets all the press, but look at the stats on Brandon Douglas. I like his BB vs. K. The same for Rhymes, wherever he plays. I don’t like 8 mil $ .195 RISP, Damon, especially at DH. A big decision for the Tigers is Clete Thomas.

i would rather dd spend $$ on c.crawford than werth. also keep inge, beltre will put up seattle numbers or get injured. keep peralta for the one year or alex gonzalez for 2 yrs. add j.buck with avila as backup. as for the DH, i would love to see them keep mags for 7-8mil or even brad hawpe or willie harris. speed kills. i would be satified with a lineup of buck, miggy, sizemore/rhymes, inge, peralta, crawford, jackson, raburn/hawpe/mags. just please rid of santiago, he is a nightmare to watch. also lairds time is up. there are a few decent pitchers to go after. maybe h.kuroda or even jorge de la rosa or j.ducherser as a starter. rid of thomas, bonine and miner. ive seen enough of them. keep bonderman for a discount maybe 2-3 mill for a 5th starter. sign affeldt to cover those long relief issues, try to get downs, qualls, rauch, lincoln to fill some relief holes with robbie, perry, coke, maybe seay. give zoom minimum with incentives to 1mil. rotation of verlander, max, ricky, with new guy kuroda/de la rosa/ducherser, bonderman. i would be happy. dont know the total price tag but it would be better than having both galaragga/bonderman with thomas/bonine/miner as options. crawford is a lefthanded stud hitter with speed. much better than werth and probably only a few mil more a yr. crawford 5/100mil werth 5/85mil. would be my guess since they are the only two players out there.

Let’s have a little contest—Raburn/Wells/Boesch/Dirks/100%Strieby vs. Crawford. Right now and for the last 30 + games, Raburn is winning. A small sample sure, but, in my opinion, it has to be considered. My way saves alot for the most generous owner, with one of the best GM’s in baseball. I’d do the same with pitchers, Turner/Weber/Wilk/L.J.Gagnier/Simons/Furbush/Villarreal. Cole Nelson is another to get to Erie as he performs. Burgos and Ruffin are also in line. I mention all these excellent prospects to show depth to prevent trades and free agents. Congrats to the Tigers for moving faster, but I still don’t understand why someone is on the 40 man and not brought up in Sep. other than Turner unless he has no more options left. Gagnier/Simons vs. Dlugach(Brandon Douglas is far better),Frazier is no contest.

To clarify, Raburn/Wells/Dirks/Boesch make the 25 man in my plan without Kelly and Damon. Raburn goes head to head with Crawford and the others add to the package. If Crawford and/or Damon were signed, it would take a space away from 1 of Wells/Dirks/Boesch. I see all 4 as contributing. I just want them to have a chance to show it in the Bigs, the sooner the better. Raburn is stepping up just like he did for the same period last year, but few are giving him any credit. Sorry to repeat some of my points, but I want to be clear with someone I respect as much as David Tokarz.

It takes very little talent to pick a good free agent. The talent is to find future B-A players who cost nothing except time. Toledo should be stocked to make the playoffs every year, without fillers. Every player there should be a possible callup in Sep. That means no Max Leon, Drucker, or Ketchner. I’m betting Raburn/Dirks/ Wells/Boesch vs. Damon/Crawford. I’m also betting L.J.Gagnier/Simons/Weber/Wilk vs. Bonderman/Ni. With more SELECTED work, I think Schlereth/Figaro will make it. Brad Thomas is up and down and could be an extra space. Jacob Turner has almost enough now, but I totally trust the Tigers to make the right decision. If the Tigers follow my advice on Ryan Strieby, he’ll be the DH with a backup from Rawley Bishop if Bishop performs at Toledo. Because I think Avila and Danny Worth will be fine, I don’t want to trade for a SS or C. I predict that either Bryan Holaday or Rob Brantly, 2 excellent prospects will make it at backup C. Adam Wilk is the best example of a bad scouting report that is preventing him from being a star. He could be RP or STP. The stars of the future, who have a season or slightly more to prove themselves are Ruffin, Burgos, Castellanos, and last, but far from least, Cole Nelson. I’m looking for 2 level promotions as they prove themselves. Great decision made to have Strieby rest his wrist, replaced in AFL with Dirks. Adam Wilk vs Wise there, no contest. If you look, you’ll find alot of pitching talent at Lakeland and below. They just need to selectively go to Erie as they perform. NO FILLERS AT ERIE OR TOLEDO, please, unless the Tigers feel they could be promoted in Sep., as these 2 teams should be stocked to get into the playoffs.

Congrats David Tokarz on Adam Wilk—“Stars and Scrubs” He should be in AFL instead of Wise.