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Finding Success: Armando Galarraga

Time for another investigation.  Looking over past posts of mine, I discovered that Armando Galarraga has never been a true feature of a post of mine outside of his perfect game and my (probably) unwarranted crush on him.

So thinking to myself about this err in my ways, I searched for something to write about.  We all know what Armando is capable of, having seen him pitch that 2008 season and having to witness the tragedy that became of his perfect game.  I knew I could find a post somewhere in all that.  And I did.

To find out what I'm gonna talk about, keep reading.  (go ahead, I dare you)

Star-divide

Unfortunately, outside of one game, Armando's career after 2008 has been relatively disappointing.  Unreasonably high expectations can do that to a career.  But he was a nobody before hand so nobody faults him for the disappointment at least.  But he obviously did something right that season.  The goal of this post is to find out what.  And of course, I'll be using whatever video I can find, metrics, and Pitchf/x charts to try to back whatever I say.

So my investigation usually starts at Fangraph's where we can see what basically all of us know.  In a comparison between his 2008 and his 2010 seasons we see that he does worse all around,  What sticks out to me first though is the drop in K/9.  It's a drop of almost two strikeouts per nine innings.  That's not good.  So, There is probably a reason for that.

Having some direction now, I head to one of my favorite sites, TexasLeaguers.com.  This is where I get all my Pitchf/x data from.  To start I opened up data from the 2008 and 2010 seasons for comparison.  First thing to notice?  1300 fastballs thrown in 2008 versus about 500 thrown in 2010.  Considering that there is only a difference of about 30 innings between the two seasons, that is quite a drop in fastballs thrown.  Also to note:  Galarraga's slider and sinker became his top two pitches in 2010.

Without going further I'm going to stop and say that I find all of this very strange.  Why such a huge drop in fastballs?  If I was a pitcher without a real nasty strikeout pitch, I would be establishing my fastball first, especially the location.  You want your breaking pitches to be a bit more surprising.  At least that is what I would think.  Another thing is why a sudden increase in the use of a sinker.  Yeah he probably practiced it, but why jump the number thrown from 18 all the way to nearly 400?  Especially when it obviously isn't getting you as many groundball's?!  Obviously pitch selection is Armando's first problem.

So back to the Pitchf/x charts.  Next up is one of my favorite charts, release points.  This helps raise awareness of mechanical differences between seasons, and can sometime raise awareness to mechanical problems in general.

I'm not gonna post the charts here to save time, but you can look for yourself using the links I gave above.  In comparing the two charts, I see what I consider to be a HUGE change in release point.  Now I can't say for certain if this is a problem, but since 2008 was his more successful season, I'll at least consider it an area of interest.  In 2008 Galarraga's general release point was at approximately 6ft high and about about 2.5ft from the center of the strike zone.  In 2010, Galarraga's release moved in about 6in toward center, dropped about 6in, and became much more spread out.  In regards to pitching that is a huge difference.

Now the only video I can find is of Armando's perfect game.  Fun to watch in a blood boiling kind of way, but does me little good in terms of analysis.  So I'm just gonna list some mechanical possibilities that could be responsible for a change in release/arm slot.

 

  • Getting lower to the ground by increasing stride length.  (only accounts for one issue)
  • Achieving arm slot by improper means (both issues)
  • Timing issues before release.  (both issues)
  • Injury (both)

Now my best guess is that there is a combination of the first two going on here.  An increase in stride length could account for an increase in velocity and account for some drop in release.  Add in improperly achieving arm slot (probably by using the elbow versus the shoulder) and you have a resulting change in release.  Now the stride isn't a problem, but the arm slot is.  If there is an issue there it needs to be corrected, and based upon his location charts I'll just say that it is a problem.  What strikes me as interesting is that my instinct says that an injury is also in play here based solely on the variance in the release point.

See why I like those charts?  I can get a good grasp of stuff from them.

So in order for Armando to at least improve himself and gain whatever his maximum potential is, he needs to just pitch smarter and properly do things mechanically.  Plus he needs to tell someone if he's hurt.  Your just hurting the whole team if you are hurt bud.

So there ya guys go, my Mando post.  Discuss and ask questions!

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Bless You Boys writing staff.

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The pitch selection is troubling to me.

If he had great sucsess in 2008 using his fast ball,i don’t understand the big change in pitch selection.And if you have this information, the Tiger you would think have this information, and also i would think they would be video taping the pitchers,so they should also see the change in arm slot.That is a huge change in the pitch selection.Is it because his fastball doesn’t move as much as it did,and that is because of his release point.Or is it poor pitch selection on Gallarraga and the Tigers part.

by swish330 on Jan 10, 2011 2:57 AM EST reply actions  

Pitch selection is odd to me as well

I’m sure a little bit has to do with the league being more aware of his portfolio, so he’s trying to mix it up more. But that change is pretty radical. It’s almosts as if he’s working backwards…starting with the secondary stuff and trying to finish hitters with the fastball. MLB hitters generally don’t wiff on the 91mph heater that Mando features, so it explains the declining K/9 rate.

Maybe we can blame the 2009 BABIP rate of .302. If he was still throwing fastballs in 2009 and they were getting hit a .302 rate, I’d think of changing something as well. After all, that BABIP and his high ERA earned him a Mud Hen jersey.

Granderson was my Tiger, then Sizemore, then Willis. Since they're all gone, I'm taking Raburn and hoping the pattern holds.

by momotigers on Jan 10, 2011 8:15 AM EST up reply actions  

Catcher/ Pitching Coach issues?

I’m wondering if the change in pitching coaches and catchers didn’t also play a part in Galarraga’s shift in pitch selection. Chuck Hernandez and Pudge Rodriguez were involved in 2008, but with Pudge gone, Laird and Avila were calling the games the last two years and Rick Knapp became the pitching coach. Coincidentally or not, Galarraga’s best year came with Hernandez guiding him and Pudge (or Inge) calling the games. I think it’s at least worth asking if those changes could have contributed to the change in philosophy with Galarraga’s pitching. I’m not saying they’re the reasons, but I wonder if they contributed.

by BigJP on Jan 10, 2011 9:56 AM EST reply actions  

To be honest...

while that is a possibility, basic pitching strategy for a starter of Armando’s talent level is to establish the fastball. The Tigers staff and catchers should all know this especially since it was a working formula in the past.

In terms of strike percentage his 2010 fastball was actually more successful, but that’s a statement made on a considerably smaller sample size. Other things to note: Based upon pitch virtualization charts (access those in the links in the post) Galaragga worked both sides of the plate successfully. In 2010 he was only trying to establish an inside presence on righties. So not only was his pitch selection off, there’s a disparity in establishing location as well.

Really, I’m starting to get impressed with how well he actually did.

by madpoopz on Jan 10, 2011 11:12 AM EST up reply actions  

Poopz do they have any graphs on pitch velocity?

Just thinking back to when Frank Tanana pitched for the Tiger he use to change the speed of his pitches all the time,and seemed to be a master at it.With every pitch being on radar now i would like to see some graphs on the speed of pitches in a pitching sequense.I think alot of pitching is about locating your pitch and the changing of speeds.And i don’t see that in the starters besides Verlander,when he throws that curve you can just watch those hitters knees buckle.Tanana could do the same thing and when he was with the Tiger he didn’t have the velocity then,but he was very effective doing it.

by swish330 on Jan 10, 2011 10:19 AM EST reply actions  

Fangraphs has pitchf/x charts for velocity.

they look a little confusing to me so I won’t try reading into them until I have a better understanding.

by madpoopz on Jan 10, 2011 11:01 AM EST up reply actions  

Please let us know if you find anything interesting about velocity in the future.

Poopz your pitching articles are always of great interest, so thanks for your time and effort that you devote to these and keep up the good work.

by swish330 on Jan 10, 2011 11:10 AM EST up reply actions  

Great stuff

I wonder if the deviation in arm slot is the product of his massive change in pitch selection. I feel like by featuring the fastball and then mixing in his secondary pitches, he’d be able to stay more consistent with his delivery. As soon as his slider % exploded and he started tinkering with his sinker much, MUCH, more, it would have been harder for him to focus on the basics like maintaining his delivery.

Even though he doesn’t have great velocity, I think Armando needs to focus on the FB – even a 90-92 mph fastball can be effective if the control is there. He already seems to get some wicked movement on his slider – I think he just throws it too much now so hitters lay off. Establish the FB, mix in the slider, and he could be a solid back-end starter.

by CoreyMichaelDC on Jan 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST reply actions  

To get max deception, that is true

but there have been successful pitchers using multiple arm slots
K Rod, for example, had two distinct arm slots, and about six variations on his change up
But the key is that he can throw a fastball from either slot, so the hitter is still guessing

If you survived 2003, you can get through this!

by Tigerdog1 on Jan 10, 2011 2:07 PM EST up reply actions  

It stands to reason

A hitter won’t have time to adjust and get around on the fastball if he’s timing his swing for an off speed pitch, so the hitter is sitting dead red 90% of the time and will adjust from there. If the fast ball isn’t effective, the hitter isn’t going to bite on a slider or change from the same arm slot.

If you survived 2003, you can get through this!

by Tigerdog1 on Jan 10, 2011 10:27 PM EST up reply actions  

it's effective logic...

but since Armando decided to throw and hang a lot of sinkers, I think he defeated his own strategy if that was the case.

by madpoopz on Jan 10, 2011 11:04 PM EST up reply actions  

Poopz do you have any knowledge of the pitching coaches using these Charts and Graphs.

I just wanted to know if pitching coaches in the big leagues are using this information or our they still going old school.It would seam that by taking all these things in to consideration they could do a better job of helping the pitcher become better.They could hire someone who studys this and relay this information to the pitching coach.

by swish330 on Jan 10, 2011 12:48 PM EST reply actions  

well...

that’s pretty difficult to answer. And the answer I can give is that they probably don’t ignore the information that I just used. In all honesty however, there is no better tool than good ol’ fashioned video. Especially in these days of high speed camera’s. The charts and graphs can only tell me that something is amiss, something we can also surmise based upon under performance in general. Video is the best tool for actual correction. So while data isn’t ignored, video is still the best tool for correcting issues.

by madpoopz on Jan 10, 2011 1:01 PM EST up reply actions  

Yes but like the pitch count you mentioned,that could be the problem.

I agree on the video part but sometimes i think the problems can be mental instead of a physical problem, so the pitch counts and velocity charts and graphs should make a difference.Like when Scherzer was sent down,i think it was more of a mental block not physical one.Some of pitching has to be when to throw what pitch and to what hitter not just mechanics.

by swish330 on Jan 10, 2011 1:57 PM EST up reply actions  

If you take a good look at the video from Armando's perfect game

You ‘ll see that most of the outs (about 20 or so) came at pitches where the radar gun showed 92-94 mph. Maybe it’s a coincidence because he threw about 60 more pitches but I think it shows that he really has a good fastball.

by johnnygre on Jan 10, 2011 1:58 PM EST reply actions  

And now for something competely different.....

Since I have no clue why Perfecto’s mechanics would be so radically different, let me throw this out there….

I’ve always believed that Armando’s biggest problem was his lack of confidence. He doesn’t trust his stuff, especially his fastball. He over thinks at times and feels that he needs to trick hitters to get them out. He becomes obsessed with trying to get hitters to swing at pitches that break out of the zone, because he doesn’t feel that he can miss bats adequately by throwing strikes. He has to get back to throwing strikes, but just don’t miss out over the plate.

 I think that Leyland is at his wit’s end with Armando’s nibbling. I truly believe that the comments in the media, to the effect that the Tigers are happy with the “top four”, including Coke who’s never been a major league starter, but Armando has to win a job, are designed to give him a kick in the arse (at the same time giving Coke a vote of confidence to go ahead with the plan to pitch in the rotation). In reality, they have to be hoping that we see the Galarraga of 2008, and they have to be lining up some insurance in the (extremely possible) event that Coke doesn’t make the transition to the rotation.

In the rear view mirror, it looks like Armando was very fortunate in 2008, but very unfortunate last year. Even Bonderman, having the highest ERA in the league among qualified starting pitchers, racked up 8 wins to AG’s 4. Even doing things exactly the same way, he’d be bound to get more wins. The defense isn’t any better this year, so the pitchers looking to improve will have to do it on the mound.

As for his mechanics, any chance that the change in arm slot can be attributed to pitching tentatively? Just wondering, because that’s where my thoughts have been with Armando. He needs a good spring. He’s out of options and there will be competition for his job. If he gets beat out, expect him to be traded for not much of a return, and that would be a shame. I can’t picture him in an Idnians uniform. I’m pulling for him this year, big time.

If you survived 2003, you can get through this!

by Tigerdog1 on Jan 10, 2011 2:06 PM EST reply actions  

Thats exactly my take on this.

I hope he has a great spring and summer for the Tigers and get over this self-induced wall he has put up.He could be #3 starter for years to come.Wish him the best.

by swish330 on Jan 10, 2011 2:26 PM EST up reply actions  

your probably right.

theres lots of reasons for changes in mechanics. The mental ones are the hardest to diagnose.

by madpoopz on Jan 10, 2011 10:56 PM EST up reply actions  

To me

He’s just suffered from what happened to Boesch. In 08’ his slider was clearly his out pitch. He used his other pitches well to set it up and then guys would go chasing or they’d tap weak grounders somewhere. Likewise Boesch was hitting balls out of the solar system until people learned what his deal was and adjusted.

Eventually people realized just exactly how Armando was dominating their hitters and told them to expect a slider and never swing at it (as apparently he doesn’t often throw it for a strike). Personally I think the jig is up on him and he is going to have to really rework his whole game. Clearly he has the stuff to be good and even great (from time to time) but it just seems to me that he’s hoping people will forget the scouting report on him and until then he’ll just bide his time nibbling the corners of the plate.

by Anthony Steven Lewis on Jan 10, 2011 3:59 PM EST reply actions  

From what I understand

Armando’s slider is his best pitch- his fastball is middling at best, which means he’s much more likely to use the slider when he gets behind (as he’s likely to do if his fastball sucks).

I do think pitch selection is a problem, but Galarraga’s probably using the sinker because it’s a better choice than the fastball. He was working on it all through the minors, and John Sickels gave it good marks in the 2008 prospect annual. That being said, using the fastball more would be a pretty good decision.

Deputy Editor, Bless You Boys

Free Scott Sizemore!

by David Tokarz on Jan 10, 2011 4:06 PM EST reply actions  

All true, but at some point, you have to be able to stay in the strike zone and still miss bats

Everything is set up by a four seamer that isn’t too hittable. You don’t want hitters sitting on your secondary offerings, or being able to see them coming. AG knows his weakness is the four seamer, but he has to use it to set the table for everything else.

But honestly, I don’t know any explanation for such a dramatic change in his release point. What I see is nibbling, lead off walks, and Armando becoming less effective with a runner on base.

If you survived 2003, you can get through this!

by Tigerdog1 on Jan 10, 2011 4:31 PM EST up reply actions  

For a starter, the fastball is the most important pitch.

even if it is middling at best. A drop of nearly 1000 fastballs is troubling even for even a middling fastball.

His sinker was not a good pitch, he hung it a lot.

by madpoopz on Jan 10, 2011 10:59 PM EST up reply actions  

I'll trust your judgment

I’m just looking at the scouting reports (granted, old ones).

And you’re right about the FB drop being troubling: everything else considered, he needs something to set up his slider. I think it was BP last year that said something about Armando’s slider being what he goes to when he gets behind- and as a result he doesn’t deceive batters and he gets hammered.

Deputy Editor, Bless You Boys

Free Scott Sizemore!

by David Tokarz on Jan 11, 2011 2:10 AM EST up reply actions  

I'd like to know exactly what got Armando all angry with Laird

Laird’s comments obviously touched a nerve with Armando, and set off quite an angry reaction.

If you survived 2003, you can get through this!

by Tigerdog1 on Jan 11, 2011 2:12 PM EST reply actions  

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