Leyland's Lineup
by Tigerdog1 on Jan 23, 2011 12:35 AM EST
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Jim Leyland gave us a pretty good idea of how the Tiger lineup will look at least to start the season in an interview with Pat Caputo during Tigerfest, 2011, and he answered a few other questions that are the subject of off season speculation among fans. Verlander will start on opening day in New York, as expected. Max Scherzer will pitch in the third game, which puts him on track to also pitch the home opener in Detroit. No word yet on who starts game 2 against the Yankees. That could be any of Rick Porcello, who's from New Jersey, Brad Penny the veteran, or Phil Coke, the former Yankee and the only lefty in the rotation going against a very left heavy Yankee lineup.
2B Rhymes/ Sizemore/ Worth/ Santiago
RF Ordonez
1B Cabrera
DH Martinez
SS Peralta
LF Raburn/ Boesch/ Thomas /(Wells)
3B Inge
C Avila
Leyland did not specifically mention Wells, but he is certainly in the mix for an outfield job this spring. He went on to say that he felt Peralta was a key batting behind Ordonez, Cabrera, and Martinez, as he's been a player that drives in runs historically. Personally, I'd bat Raburn or Boesch in the sixth slot as I think they'd drive in as many runs or more, and bat Peralta seventh.
There are several interviews from Tigerfest here on the Tigerfest website, including chats with Dave Dombrowski, Jim Leyland, Al Avila, Alex Avila, Justin Verlander, Rick Porcello, Phil Coke, Joel Zumaya, Victor Martinez, Max Scherzer, Tom Brookens, and Jeff Jones. Lots of interesting dialog in the interviews, but I thought that Leyland's comments regarding the lineup and the rotation deserved a special mention.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Bless You Boys writing staff.
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That order will last until opening day
Leyland will shuffle it around about 60 times this year.
Deputy Editor, Bless You Boys
Free Scott Sizemore!
TD1 you forgot Leylands boy Don Kelly.
Leyland will bat Clete Mendoza lead off and his brother Donnie Mendoza in the two spot.I wish Leyland would stick with some sort of set line-up,when a righty pitches and when a lefty pitches.Righty-Jackson-Rhymes-Ordonez-Cabrera-Martinez-Raburn-Peralta-Aliva-Inge.Lefty-Jackson-Raburn-Ordonez-Cabrera-Martinez-Peralta-Wells-Inge-Sizemore.
Coke #2 starter makes sense
In addition to having a R/L/R split, I like him between JV and Max. JV has a tendency to go deep in games which should allow the pen to be fresh for Coke. I’m unsure wether or not he would be on a pitch count but I’m guessing a fresh bullpen would help.
by JAYRC on Jan 23, 2011 9:07 AM EST via mobile reply actions
I see it more like
Ajax
Raburn
Maggs
Biggy
Vmart
Peralta
Inge
Rhymes/Sizemore/Worth
Avila
Your 2k11 Detroit Tigers "AL Central Division Contenders" So get over it.
From what JL said, I think the 2B will get first crack at the 2 hole
unless Guillen is playing second base, in which case he’d move Raburn up. RR put up an OBP of .340 last year. Compare that with a .333 league average, and a .356 that Damon posted. The Tigs were second in the AL in OBP in the 2 slot. Since we’re so dependent on the heart of the order for run production, I think that getting on base ahead of Miggy is huge for this team. If Rhymes is at 2nd, no doubt he’s batting No. 2. If he’s not getting on base, he probably won’t last in the lineup at all. Same with Sizemore.
Leyland appears to be infatuated with Peralta’s RBI numbers. He does have solid raw totals, but also led the league in RBI chances in 2009, and was near the top in 2010. I like Raburn’s, or Guillen’s bat better in that spot. Peralta’s offense is very average, even for a shortstop. I don’t think who bats sixth will make or break this team, but if we see a big drop in OBP from the top three slots in the order, we’ve got an issue.
If you survived 2003, you can get through this!
Thats not the way I heard it
Your 2k11 Detroit Tigers "AL Central Division Contenders" So get over it.
by Detroitchik on Jan 23, 2011 12:59 PM EST up reply actions
same here
but he talks in circles sometimes, he had 4 or 5 guys at second. But what stuck out to me was how he said Raburn would be a power bat in the 2 slot. So who knows what he’ll do…. guess we’ll all know on opening day
Your 2k11 Detroit Tigers "AL Central Division Contenders" So get over it.
But Raburn has cold starts so i wouldn't do that to start off.
They need to bat Raburn down in the order till he gets hot with the bat.Plus all we need in the #2 spot is someone who gets on base,Raburns power would be better served batting behind V Mart when he is hitting.I think Leyland plans on batting him behind Peralta to start with.And that make sense,it takes the pressure off him to start the year.
Leyland
he doesn’t see it that way. Magglio generally starts off the season slow too. That being said, would you move Maggs from the 3 spot because he starts off slow and it takes him a bit to get going? If Raburn sees every day playtime, he may warm up to the bat and the task a little quicker.
Your 2k11 Detroit Tigers "AL Central Division Contenders" So get over it.
by Detroitchik on Jan 25, 2011 11:28 AM EST up reply actions
No because Magg's has hit 300 like ten straight years.
Raburn is a 200 hitter like the first two months of the season.You don’t want him batting second to start the year, take the pressure off him till he starts hitting.
Well
his career numbers look like this:
batting 1st 111AB .261 BA .344OBP .505SLG
batting 2nd 71AB .296 BA .338OBP .563SLG
batting 3rd 164AB .268 BA .328OBP .506SLG
batting 4th 48AB .354BA .392 OBP .479SLG
batting 5th 69AB .348BA .392 OBP .594SLG
batting 6th 183AB .257BA .320OBP .388SLG
bating 7th 158AB .272 BA .326OBP .468SLG
batting 8th 108AB .250BA .308OBP .361SLG
batting 9th 69 AB .246BA .316OBP .435SLG
Its clear to me, after looking at Raburn’s numbers he is a top to middle of the order guy. He does much better there. Bottom of the order noty so much. LIke I said, he’ll be fine if that bat him 2nd.
Your 2k11 Detroit Tigers "AL Central Division Contenders" So get over it.
That's too small of a sample size to make much of that.
Plus you would need to know when he batted in those postions,was it early in the year or when he was on his second half hot streaks.Looking at those stats you would bat him 5th.Im not disagreeing with you, just pointing out he is a real slow starter normally.And we need someone who gets on base in the #2 spot.The games in April count the same as the games in September,we need to get off to a good start.I don’t care who bats second, but they need to get on base in front of Maggs,Cabrera and V Mart.And with Raburns power numbers,he should bat behind V Mart.
career numbers
if you wanted to look at the things you mentioned, you can probably find them at baseball Reference. If I was looking at one or even two seasons, I would say that it’s a small sample size (an expression I loathe) but these are career numbers, so i dont think what I posted would be considered as such.
Your 2k11 Detroit Tigers "AL Central Division Contenders" So get over it.
What those career numbers do show is Leyland has batted him everywhere in the line-up.
It looks like Raburn has been jerked around all over the line-up.Maybe thats why it hard for him to be consistant.
all guys have batted most positions when you look at career
pull most anyone up and you’ll see they’ve batted in at leat 3 or 4 different positions.
Your 2k11 Detroit Tigers "AL Central Division Contenders" So get over it.
JL first mentioned Guillen and says he's not going to bat second
Then says Rhymes is a good fit, then mentions Raburn, then the rest of the 2B contestants in a group- Sizemore, Santiago, and Worth. He admitted that he doesn’t really know himself, but I though he’d give first crack to Rhymes, and it’s logical to me that, if a 2B can put up a decent OBP and bring something else, such as speed or power to the table, he’d go that way and keep Raburn down the order to drive in more runs. But if Peralta’s batting sixth, maybe RBI’s from the 7 slot aren’t so important. I think it’s still an open question. I think that if Sizemore hits, he should be the 2B and would then have a decent stat line for that job. Raburn had a .340 OBP last year, too.
If you survived 2003, you can get through this!
Rhymes has to be the favorite at the start
He’s left handed (they need that), he can bunt (we hate that, leyland doesn’t), he’s not FAST but he can run fine, and he’s already had a good start to his career. Plus Leyland likes him.
by Kurt Mensching on Jan 25, 2011 5:56 PM EST up reply actions
I agree
Rhymes has the edge, but I still think it’s wide open for the 2B gig
Sizemore’s ability at the plate blows Will away if he can reach his potential
I’m not even sure there’s an advantage either way defensively
If you survived 2003, you can get through this!
oh there's definitely an advantage to Will defensively
I don’t think anyone believe Sizemore is anything but a below average glove who has shown the ability to get on base and hit for power in the minors. If it translates to the majors, great. If it doesn’t, it’s going to be hard to justify any playing time at all.
by Kurt Mensching on Jan 25, 2011 9:12 PM EST up reply actions
Sizemore is much more likely to stick as a starter
Rhymes also projects a little below average defensively, a little less on base pct, and no power. Sizemore is clearly the better prospect here. If he hits, there should be no debate. Yet Will performed when he got the chance, and Sizemore did not. Sizemore should at least settle down defensively and not make the hasty types of errors that he made when he first came up. Rhymes was steady, with defensive metrics all a bit below league average (in very small samples). Other than that, I don’t believe there is a significant difference in fielding.
If you survived 2003, you can get through this!
Im going with Kurt on this one.
Rhymes seems to be better defensively than Sizemore at second base.Also Rhymes is a lefty and seems to be a good fit batting behind A Jax’s.All he has to do is play a steady second base and bat 275-280 and take some walks.He also dosen’t strike out much so that should be an advantage in hit and run situations.Sizemore dose have way more power potential then Rhymes,and im sure he will get some playing time.I would like to see them put Sizemore at third some during spring training and see how that goes.Hopefully they both have good years, thats a problem i would be glad to have.
Rhymes = Poor man's Polanco
I forget, where did Polanco bat?
Granderson was my Tiger, then Sizemore, then Willis. Since they're all gone, I'm taking Raburn and hoping the pattern holds.
That doesn't mean that Rhymes is good with the glove
He’s average according to scouts and slightly below according to fielding metrics.
Deputy Editor, Bless You Boys
Free Scott Sizemore!
by David Tokarz on Jan 26, 2011 12:28 PM EST up reply actions
just my opinion but
When comparing Rhymes and Sizemore, Rhymes is the better choic, at least right now.
Rhymes has the higher OB%, better glove and he’s left handed.
I hope Sizemore comes around BUT I’d rather see Rhymes begin the season in the two spot than roll the dice with Sizemore.
Too little in the majors to tell yet
but Will definitely has an edge in Leyland’s book. Still, it has to be an open competition at this point. If Carlos isn’t ready, then there are two jobs open.
If you survived 2003, you can get through this!
Right, Leylands comments are odd to me
Guillen at 2nd…no way
Raburn at 2nd…yeah, that makes sense
To me, the production would be very similar between these two, which is why I can’t see why you would hit Raburn there, but not Guillen. To me, if anything, Guillen batting lefty a lot of the time would mean he’s a better option (Jackson of 1st, 1B holding the runner…etc).
Since we’re talking #2 and #6 or 7, the two relevant numbers are OBP and SLG (and we know Leyland values SLG as a RBI predictor).
Raburn’s Career = .333 OBP and .466 SLG. However, with the way his bat was in 2009 and 2010 as opposed to earlier, I would predict more of a .350 OBP and .480 SLG.
Guillen’s Career = .357 OBP and .445 SLG. However, with the way his bat was in 2009 and 2010, I’d predict at .345 OBP and SLG around .420.
I think Raburn will be the better hitter in both OBP and SLG. However, I think the OBP will be similar for both players, while the SLG could be substantially higher for Raburn.
Given both guys in the same lineup, this would seem to dictate that Guillen bats #2 and Raburn hits #6. However, when your remove Guillen from the lineup, a new 2B enters the picture. Rhymes makes a good #2, Sizemore does not.
Granderson was my Tiger, then Sizemore, then Willis. Since they're all gone, I'm taking Raburn and hoping the pattern holds.
I think you have to look at the context of JL's comments
I’d find it hard to believe that he favors SLG over OBP in the leadoff spot. His comments came right on the heels of praising Perlata for his RBI totals. Jhonny doesn’t have even a decent OBP, and has a mediocre SLG, but he has traditionally managed to get runs in when given the opportunity. JL then launches in to “I like the guys that knock em in”.
I still think that the key for a No. 2 hitter is getting on base, with Miggy and Maggs and V Mart coming up. Raburn had an OBP of .340 last year. Guillen’s numbers have been good when he’s healthy, and I think he’d be fine in that slot. Rhymes did the job last year, and Sizemore has done even better getting on base if you check out their pro careers in the minors. JL also said he’d like some speed in that spot. Well, nix Guillen then. The other guys can all run better than Polly or Damon did. I don’t think it’s a huge issue. It’s one that we’ll just have to see how it plays out.
As for defense at 2B, check out Tigstown’s latest podcast where Mark Anderson says that there’s not a great difference between Rhymes and Sizemore defensively, despite Will’s “scrappy” image. But the Tigers infield defense is below average no matter how you slice it. If you want better D, put Santiago at shorstop, at least when Porcello is pitching.
If you survived 2003, you can get through this!
sorry, I can see with my own eye
and there’s most definitely a difference. Mark can look with his eye, and that’s fine. But Sizemore is worse defensively.
by Kurt Mensching on Jan 26, 2011 6:10 PM EST up reply actions
I don't think I said some of those things
I said Leyland prefers SLG as an RBI predictor, not OBP. That’s from comments at Tigerfest…I think just after “I like guys that can knock ’em in”. Never mentioned anything about leadoff (not worth a debate since Jackson is locked)
Granderson was my Tiger, then Sizemore, then Willis. Since they're all gone, I'm taking Raburn and hoping the pattern holds.
He said Jackson is leading off
in fact, he named the whole lineup, with multiple possibilities for the 2 slot. He mentioned Raburn/ Boesch for the 7th spot. He said Rhymes was a good fit in the 2 slot if he’s on the team, etc, etc. If they’ve got someone there that isn’t getting on base, I’m sure they’ll make a change- probably in who plays the position and not just who bats second. I like the cast that we have and he’ll be able to make a good lineup out of it, IMO.
If you survived 2003, you can get through this!
I agree that Peralta at #6 stinks.
He’s probably going to bat about .250…I’d rather have Raburn’s .280+ behind the big boys.
Beyond that, if Raburn’s bat isn’t good enough to warrant him batting ahead of Peralta, he shouldn’t be on the team.
Granderson was my Tiger, then Sizemore, then Willis. Since they're all gone, I'm taking Raburn and hoping the pattern holds.
60?
more like 120 different times. (which I believe he has) . This is one of my big gripes on Leyland. Way too many lineups. Baseball is about consistance and streaks. Players can never get into a groove if they are moved around constantly. I understand injuries played a role in many lineup changes, but there were even more that weren’t motivated by that.
Country Strong
what teams do you think have the most consistent lineups?
by Kurt Mensching on Jan 23, 2011 11:57 AM EST up reply actions
The teams with the fewest "fringy" players on the roster
If you survived 2003, you can get through this!
Funny, because JL has also been faulted by fans for sticking too long with a lineup
or batting a sub like Clete Thomas in the 3 hole when he replaces Magglio, just to keep all the other guys in their same spot. Damned if you do, damned if you don’t. The lineup is always a hot topic, and makes for interesting off season forum fodder, but I don’t think the issues are as critical as some folks make them out to be. Get em on and let the big boys get em in.
If you survived 2003, you can get through this!
I really can't answer that...
I’d have to do some research, but to me it was frustrating when there was no apparent reason for shifts, ie injury, slump. I understand with injuries and the Boesh enigma he had some changes, it just seemed he tinkered at times it didn’t need to be.
Country Strong
a survey of some teams
2010 Tigers batting orders: 129 (130 with pitchers)
Playoff teams:
2010 Yankees batting orders: 114
2010 Rays batting orders: 129
2010 Rangers batting orders: 112
2010 Twins batting orders: 112
AL Central:
Twins: 112
Sox: 115
Indians: 142
Royals: 103
World Series Champions
Giants: 126 (a whopping 159 with pitchers)
by Kurt Mensching on Jan 25, 2011 9:31 AM EST up reply actions
those all came from baseball-reference, btw
by Kurt Mensching on Jan 25, 2011 9:31 AM EST up reply actions
Could be many different reasons
Lineups change all the time, could be b/c a guy has a day off or the lefty/righty pitching match up. The lineup is mostly key the first time around the order, depending on the innings play out. For me, it makes more sense to be consistant with WHERE the guys play their positions. You cannot expect a player to excel in say. LF if you don’t play him there consistantly. So I think position has more to do with it than batting order. Leyland switches positions on these guys enough to affect their consistancy with the IF or OF
Your 2k11 Detroit Tigers "AL Central Division Contenders" So get over it.
by Detroitchik on Jan 25, 2011 11:32 AM EST up reply actions
What i meant was.
The Twins 112,The White Soxs 115,The Tigers 129.The Tigers higher number was more because of injury then the Twins or White Soxs numbers.
maybe a bit
but the point is, most teams use 100+ lineups a year. I don’t really see the difference between 100 different and 120 or whatever.
by Kurt Mensching on Jan 25, 2011 9:14 PM EST up reply actions
Your right Kurt, but thats what i was saying.
I was surprised that the Tigers numbers fall in line with the rest of the teams.I thought Leyland changed line-ups more than most managers but your figures show thats not true.
I think this is overrated
Regardless of where in the lineup a player hits, after leadoff in the 1st inning, it’s all a crapshoot about what the situation will be when you step up to the plate. 90% of the time, you’re just trying to make good contact and hit the ball hard somewhere, so I don’t see how it matters when you step up the plate today vs. yesterday vs. tomorrow.
Our lineup should be dictated by getting guys on base at #1 and #2, and driving them in at #3, 4, and 5. If it take Leyland a few shuffles to get it right, shuffle away.
Granderson was my Tiger, then Sizemore, then Willis. Since they're all gone, I'm taking Raburn and hoping the pattern holds.
I don't know....
who is in front of and behind you definately changes how pitchers approach you, but I will say after about the 6th spot on, for most clubs it doesn’t matter.
Country Strong
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