The 2011 Tigers Prospect Mega-List

I’d look at the scores a little differently. Using your data, I recompiled based on average score for each. What this shows is that there is a very consistent top 3 reported by scouts. Prospects 4-7 are similarly bunched. Prospects 13 to the end were likely not named on all of the lists (or had some as higher than 10).

Sorry for the crummy formatting.

score “avg position”
1. Jacob Turner 60 1.0
2. Nick Castellanos 53 2.2
3. Andy Oliver 48 3.0
4. Daniel Fields 35 5.2
5. Casey Crosby 25 6.8
6. Daniel Schlereth 24 7.0
7. Chance Ruffin 23 7.2
8. Francisco Martinez 15 8.5
9. Drew Smyly 11 9.2
10. Charles Furbush 7 9.8
10. Brayan Villarreal 7 9.8
12. Avisail Garcia 6 10.0
13. Wade Gaynor 4 >10
14. Josue Carreno 3 >10
14. Bruce Rondon 3 >10
16. Adam Wilk 2 >10
17. Jose Ortega 1 >10
17. Dixon Machado 1 >10
17. Casper Wells 1 >10
17. Danry Vazquez 1 >10

I think we might see Ruffin up in Detroit this year if anyone goes down. Of course it depends on how his season is going, but DD isn’t afraid to bring the young power relievers up and see how they do.

Avisail Garcia is an intriguing player. Saw him hit a home run last year while at a WhiteCaps game and I didn’t realize how big he was. From what I’ve read he’s got some talent that just needs to be worked on a bit.

When is Castellanos projected to arrive?

Is Francisco Martinez a possible impact player in the future?

Nobody will believe this, but I had a ranking aggregate post like this one written for the past week. Course, I didn’t use K-Law or THT (K-Law only publishes a top 100 and THT isn’t quite on the same level as the others) but I still got scooped!

Good job overall on the list though!

I think we are all looking forward to seeing Turner & Oliver in the line-up, but let’s not rush them. Oliver was not ready for the big leagues last year.

Most of the mainstream Scouts and people that make up these lists value “tools” and “ceiling” more than they do certain skills that are indispensable to being successful in the major leagues. Things like plate discipline, pitch recognition skills, base stealing ability, command of the strike zone, etc- those are skills as opposed to ability to hit for power, speed, arm strength, etc.

Such lists tend to be filled with very raw prospects that haven’t proven anything, haven’t had the chance to prove that their tools will translate as they face tougher competition, but haven’t been tested. They will all inevitably be given a chance to fail or survive. They move up a list by attrition, as their colleagues on the list fail, and they’re battling younger, more unproven talent as they’re drafted and placed high on the lists almost purely because of tools. Loads of prospects have had tools but not the ability to hit a curve ball, or lay off a slider outside the zone. Loads of prospects have size, velocity, and even nasty stuff, but they can’t consistently find the strike zone, or they can’t command their repertoire within the zone and they get killed.

So, there’s a danger any time that you’re comparing talent that is near major league ready vs a raw prospect that is several years younger. I think you have to look at a player with what he’s done vs those of his age and experience level and keep an eye on the best players at every level. I don’t make a list like many others do, because I find it a bit awkward to rate players based only on what I read from others. I do make an “all prospect team” comprised of the players that I find most interesting at each position in the Tiger organization, but my team roster will be skewed in favor of those that we may see making an impact sooner, rather than later, flaws and all.

and over all of them combined.