Making the case for Rick (WITH POLL!!!)

by Lukas M on Oct 2, 2011 12:22 AM EDT

Well by now it's official. The yankees beat the Tigers in game one by a score of 9-3. We have to win a game in New York to advance. We might as well do it tomorrow. In my opinion, Fister pitched a good game. He just could not get out of a 6th inning jam. I think that tomorrow's game is a must-win. And Max Scherzer is scheduled to start.

Now I'm as big of a MAD MAX fan as the next Tiger fan, but he is a fly ball pitcher. The short right porch in Yankee Stadium scares me with Max on the mound. The way the rotation was set up before game one got washed out made it possible for Max Scherzer to pitch in Comerica. His numbers are way better to the tune of 3.80 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP at home. At home, he has given up 11 HR in 109 innings and an opponent average of .267. His stats in away games are much worse. 5.23 ERA (+1.43 differential) 1.42 WHIP (+.13) more home runs in less innings (18 in 89 innings. a 21% chance of giving up a home run in an inning compared to a 10% chance at home) and last but not least, a .279 opposing batting average (+.012).

Rick Porcello's split stats may be a bit surprising, as he is much worse playing at home than away. In home games he has a 5.64 ERA, a 1.48 WHIP, a .302 opposing batting average, and has given up 10 HR in 83 innings (12% chance of giving up HR an inning). His number's in away games are much better surprisingly. 4.00 ERA (-1.64 !) 1.34 WHIP (-.14) and has given up 8 HR in 99 innings (-4% of giving up HR an inning). Rick is also a conventional ground ball pitcher.

I know this is the big stage, but to my knowledge Max doesn't have any post season experience so i don't think experience matters much. Scherzer is a better strikeout pitcher, and dominated the Yankees earlier this year,but Porcello seems to be more efficient in an away game than Max. If I were Leyland, I would throw Rick tomorrow, JV in game 3, and Scherzer can hopefully close it out at home where he is much better.

What do you guys think?

Poll