Brennan Boesch shows gains in 2011
by Kurt Mensching on Oct 26, 2011 11:22 AM EDT
in Detroit Tigers Analysis
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Just like last year, we'll be grading all the Tigers who contributed significant playing time over the course of the season, starting with the position players, then doing the rotation members, and finally finishing up with the bullpen and writing profiles for players without enough playing time to earn a grade. Each list will run in alphabetical order. These reviews will occasionally dip into sabermetrics so we can get a better idea why things happened, but I'll try to explain as we go through things. Like his rookie year, Brennan Boesch's numbers were a lot better in the first half than the second. However, he had a pretty good excuse for falling off in the final weeks of his season this year: A painful thumb that eventually required surgery to fix. Boesch was actually batting as high as a .298 average (with an .841 OPS) on Aug. 2. His rate of strikeouts to plate appearances was 16.3%. Somewhere early in August -- I cannot find an exact date -- he hurt the thumb. Tigers trainer Kevin Rand said it was a Grade 3 sprain. Yet Boesch tried to play through it and even added up with pain in his biceps as he tried to compensate for the injury. So from Aug. 3 until the end of his year, Boesch batted .163 with a .479 OPS and strikeouts in more than 27% of his plate appearances. That torpedoed his second-half splits. So a "Tale of Two Boeschs" storyline doesn't work here. While he was healthy, he was a pretty good, mostly consistent batter. In the field, he was not a thing of beauty but he did well enough to start without scaring Tigers fans. (Low bar, I know.) He should continue to be a starter in the Tigers' uniform. So when I add it all up, I give him a B. Brennan Boesch
At the plate
There were a few things to like about Boesch's season beyond what the bubble-gum card numbers tell you. (Those numbers, by the way: .286 average, 16 home runs, 54 RBI.) Boesch's on-base percentage improved to .341, his slugging to .458. His walk rate remained steady, while his strikeout rate decreased. Both of those numbers were obviously better before the injury.
Diving a bit deeper, we can see the biggest change in Boesch's game came in plate discipline. His rookie year, he chased everything. In 2011, he swung less often -- whether the ball was inside or outside the strike zone. His swinging strike percentage decreased, while his rate of contact increased.
Beyond the injury-dampened August, Boesch had one period of major struggle. After a hot start to April, he changed his approach at the plate in May. He hit a few more home runs, but he also ended up with plummeting stats and effectiveness across the board. After he got back to his game, he became a more consistent batter.
In the field
Across the board, he rates as below average. He had a -5.8 UZR and -5 defensive runs saved. On the 2011 Fans Scouting Report, he rated as a 43. (50 is average.) Fans saw him as having below-average instincts and glove work, but above-average throwing strength and accuracy.
My eye test agrees.
In the future
Looking at the stats that might tell us about next season, Boesch doesn't seem to have any regressing to do. His .315 BABIP matched his .315 xBABIP based on batted ball types. His line drive rate improved as well. We also saw several improvements in the right places, as I mentioned.
As long as Boesch returns in 2012 as a healthy player who remembers the approach at the plate that was most effective for him, I think he should be expected to repeat his performance. So an average closer to .300 than .250, and an OPS closer to .800 than .700 seems quite likely. However, if he reverts to a free-swinger who'll chase anything, those figures will definitely be on the lower end.
At this point, I'd consider him a starter in 2012.
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I gave him a B
Shut up.
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching
Contributor, Bless You Boys
I'd agree with a B
Looking forward to getting his lefty bat back in the line-up next season, and I think he has that hustle and attitude that other players love to play with.
Hopefully JL slots him back in to hitting in the 3 hole – Yahoo says in 46 games there last season, he hit .339/.379.575, with 11 dingers and 32 RBI. Get a lead-off hitter during the off season, let AJ continue to develop down in the order, get a healthy Boesch with Delmon playing for a new contract, and this offense should be pretty solid next year.
by CoreyMichaelDC on Oct 26, 2011 11:47 AM EDT reply actions
B
He met last season in the middle. Barring the thumb injury he would have had even better numbers. I think he’s going to be a solid player for many years with left handed pop in his bat. Still needs to work on his defense a tad, but has a good arm. Plate disapline got much better, hope to see more.
Country Strong
Between a B and a C, I gave him a B
Among all outfielders in the AL with at least 350 plate appearances, BB was consistently in the 9- 14 range in most major offensive categories, and his defense improved enough to give us hope that he’ll be close to average when he settles in. I am concerned that he started to slide once again after the break. I am impressed by his on base percentage, and encouraged by his approach at the plate, particularly how he started to lay off the high heat and make contact more often. He still is among the leagues most frequent swingers, but he does like the ball away rather than that hard slider thrown at his back heel that so many other lefties like. He still hit lefties very well also.
The bottom line on BB is this: Last year, I wanted the Tigers to not count on Boesch and go out and get a No. 3 hitter. I was happy enough with Magglio based on the medical reports and his workouts, and based on what he did in early 2010 when healthy. When Maggs didn’t pan out, BB picked up the slack for him and it looked like we had our legit No. 3 hitter (even though the skipper didn’t make the necessary change). This year, I’d be inclined to ride it out, at least for starters, with BB, Delmon, AJax, Raburn, and Dirks, and see if three of them can step up consistently enough. I’d pencil BB in the RF spot most games and give him a shot at batting third, barring the acquisition of another power hitter for that spot. As long as we shore up the top of the lineup with a couple of infield acquisitions, I think the outfield is cool.
King of Minutae...... fearless blog leader
Agreed in all respects
I also think that Boesch is probably one of our most valuable players trade-wise. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go if the right deal for 3B or 2B presents itself. In a way, I’d be disappointed because I think he’s turning into a very good player, but if we filled our needs at 2B or 3B and became a better team, I’d support the decision.
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
A ' B' from me, too
As mentioned in the post, his plate discipline is what did it for me this year. At the end of last year he was swinging at sea gulls. This year he looked much more poised at the plate. His second half numbers weren’t great, but if he could do that with an injured thumb, imagine what he can do when he’s 100%.
"Some guy told me I should walk with the Lord. I'd rather walk with the bases loaded" Ken Singleton
I gave him a 'B'
One thing that I really like about Boesch from the top of the lineup is his speed. It doesn’t get thought of very often because he’s a big guy, but he’s quite fast. He stays out of DP’s and he can pick up an extra base that a lot of guys wouldn’t get. This is nice if he’s batting in front of the big boys (scoring from 1st on a double…1st to 3rd on a sharp single…etc.)
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
I gave my man Brennan an A, because A- wasn't an option
It’s not easy to turn a power hitter into a disciplined hitter. It’s one of those things that drives scouts crazy, where you’ve got a guy who can hit the ball nine miles but can’t lay off the high cheese. It takes more than just batting practice…it takes a mental adjustment, and for such a young man to do it basically in the span of one offseason I found remarkable. Maybe not a reincarnation of Kirk Gibson, but he reminds me of him…in all the right ways.
In a Tiger fan's world, the Tigers go 162-0 and the White Sox go 0-162.
Boesch Has Been My Tiger Since He Came Up In 2010
I gave him a B because there is no A-. He has the right stuff & will be a good ball-player for many years, if he stays healthy. He will keep improving.
Boesch's Ranking among AL Outfielders
Minimum 400 plate appearances, 33 qualified hitters:
9th in Avg
11th in OBP
14th in SLG
14th in OPS
18th in Home Runs
22nd in RBI
19th in doubles
just one triple
21st in P/PA
22nd in XBH
25th in GIDP
15th in Sac Flies
24th in runs created
13th in wOBA
16th in K% (Raburn and AJax were 1, 2)
17th in ISO
- 8.6 UZR/ 150
Yeah, a solid B
King of Minutiae...... fearless blog leader
Boesch is my favorite Tiger, since Gamer was traded.
Because of that, I gotta give him a “C”. I expect more. I expect him to figure out his second half foibles. I expect him to mix BOTH base hits to LF and long dingers to RF in the same game. Right now, Brennan seems to be able to do one or the other for stretches, but not both.
To me, the kid should develop into a .300 hitting doubles machine, with 15-20 homers mixed in. Yeah, he can hit some bombs. And maybe in his career season he hits .300 with 30 or more HRs. But most seasons, he needs to concentrate on plate coverage, being picky, and delivering OBP with extra base power.
The ‘11 season? A step forward … sort of. But, I’m hoping for more. Solidly, more.
Justin can now let the fungus grow back on his shower shoes.
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