Jose Valverde's option picked up by Tigers
The Tigers today announced their decision to pick up the club option on closer Jose Valverde's contract. It will cost the team $9 million, which is really quite a lot of money for a reliever. However, he is a popular player and finished 2011 a perfect 49 for 49 in his save opportunities during the regular season and 4 for 4 in his postseason opportunities.
Of course, I expect some will look at this reluctantly. Jose Valverde is not exactly Mariano Rivera. I wouldn't classify him as a lock-down closer, despite the perfect status in 2011. The 33-year-old right hander has a career ERA of 3.02. His 2011 season ERA of 2.24 was nice, but the xFIP of 4.01 shows room for possible regression. (I do not want to make too much of this and do not necessarily think you should make a lot of it either. Valverde's career ERA is half a run better than his career xFIP. His ERA has ranged from about a third of a run to a run and a half better than his xFIP since 2007.)
Still, the Tigers' bullpen wasn't exactly impressive in 2011. The most reliable relievers were Joaquin Benoit and Jose Valverde. The Tigers couldn't exactly afford to just let one walk and hope for the best when they expect to be a contender in 2012.
So I approve. It's a costly move, but I do love the dancing potato.
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Good News
that being said, I fully expected it to happen.
by Anthony Steven Lewis on Oct 28, 2011 12:17 PM EDT reply actions
Ugh.
I would have been okay with resigning him, but at $9 mil for an aging closer with increasing walk rates/decreasing strikeout rates, I’m not very pleased.
I say this because
This years free agent list had some good names, some of which we might’ve been able to get for cheaper compared to Valverde. There’s no good names coming up in 2013. I’m not quite sure, but a 2014 doesn’t look especially promising either on a quick look.
I assume the plan is to shift Benny over to being a closer in 2013, but for one year? With no seemingly good other options?
That's a lot of money for a guy with a WAR of 1
But it is what it is I suppose, all closers are overpaid. Hopefully he can maintain something close next year and hopefully the Tigers DO NOT give him an extension. I think if Valverde makes it through next year not much more can be expected and certainly not at any more of a premium than $9M. Valverde in ’12 and Benoit will have to earn his salary as a closer after that.
All these funny stats.
How about 49 for 49!!!
by BennieBladesFan on Oct 28, 2011 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions
This is hyperbole.
Valverde getting a save isn’t a “coin flip” and, sure, 49 for 49 is lucky, but 46 for 49 would still have been outstanding.
Also, his bWAR was 2.7. If we use that number he’ll be underpaid this season. I also think he does better than 1y/$9m on the open market. I don’t believe he’ll be underpaid this season, but as the post explains, for the Tigers, this makes a lot of sense.
Okay
Like rolling a 12 sided dice and not getting 12.
That was the nerdiest metaphor ever.
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching
Contributor, Bless You Boys
by David Tokarz on Oct 28, 2011 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Fine, the coin flip wasn't the best analogy.
Valverde still benefitted from an increased percentage of batters left on base. About 4% higher than his career norm. I can’t remember if that’s inside or outside of the accepted range off the top of my head.
Now, cutting his HR/9 and HR/FB% by a third of his career norm, yeah that’s luck. Unless he’s fundamentally shifted the way he pitched this past year, don’t expect this again. Also, he cut his ERA by about a run off his average, yet his FIP is about the same. Take that as you will.
All in all, I do believer that Valverde is a very good reliever, but an average to above average closer. He’s not as great as some people want to believe. I’d love to be proven wrong though, however.
He did adjust how he pitched this year.
He basicaly ditched the split finger and threw more 2 seamers and it showed. He pitched great and we should all be glad he is coming back!!!
by BennieBladesFan on Oct 28, 2011 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions
49 for 49 is not luck!
He was not perfect, that’s for sure! But he got the job done when we needed it!
WAR for closers is junk
The guy did his job, 49 out of 49 times this season.
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
I agree
WAR for relievers is really out of whack I think.
by Kurt Mensching on Oct 28, 2011 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions
it is
the insertion of a closer is completely context dependent. If you kept Cabrera on the bench so he was available to pinch hit whenever the bases were loaded WAR would not accurately reflect his impact. Whereas WAR gives Valverde credit for only one win, WPA says he was worth four. Even if you split the difference and said Valverde was worth 2.5 wins 9 million isn’t a terrible deal
It has value, so dismissing it outright isn't really useful
But yeah, it’s not perfect. I’d much prefer using WPA or FIP (and I really should start to when I evaluate relievers).
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching
Contributor, Bless You Boys
by David Tokarz on Oct 30, 2011 1:29 AM EDT up reply actions
Absolutely
WAR is junk for many pitchers, but especially RP’s. It doesn’t give credit to those pitchers that are skilled in pitching to contact.
Not the pitching to contact narrative again...
It’s bunk. Garbage. Crap.
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching
Contributor, Bless You Boys
by David Tokarz on Oct 30, 2011 1:29 AM EDT up reply actions
Little concern in drop of velocity on fastball, but still a quality reliever
He was throwing 96 m.p.h, then it went down to 94 m.p.h and in the playoff some of the pitches came in at 92 m.p.h. We had to sign the guy and like Kurt mention, 9 million is a bit much. but what do you do?
YESSSS
One of the top relievers in the game and one less worry for 2012!!! Papa Grande is back and all is well in the D for the 9th!!!
by BennieBladesFan on Oct 28, 2011 12:49 PM EDT reply actions
Meh
Not horrible.
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching
Contributor, Bless You Boys
You know, he's fun
So as long as he’s decent in the closer’s role, I’m fine with this. I’ll spend a bit for some character.
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching
Contributor, Bless You Boys
by David Tokarz on Oct 28, 2011 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Birds, hands, bushes...blah blah blah
I think he’s being a bit overpaid next season. I doubt that if he hit the market, he would be able to find a contract that pays 9M annually or more. He’d probably sign a 2yr/15M deal or 3yr/20M.
That being said, the option secures our closer for another year. He doesn’t have the opportunity to go elsewhere. A lot of people don’t see this as being worth something, but having the guy locked up already is a hell of a lot easier than shopping and competing with the 20 other clubs looking for relief help.
All in all, it’s a good deal. We could probably promote Benoit and have similar success in the 9th, but then we have a problem with the 8th and it keeps trickling down. Until our bullpen is reliable from the 6th inning onward, we shouldn’t be letting arms walk.
I thought the idea of declining and offering arby was intriguing, but ultimately, that comes down to getting a draft pick or keeping Valverde. I wouldn’t trade him for a sandwich pick. Once again, a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
As expected
The alternative would have been to decline the option and either try to negotiate a multi year contract with El Papa, or let him walk with an offer of arbitration and collect the two draft picks when he declines to get a multi year deal on the open market.
True that closers are over priced by comparison with set up men who often pitch in situations that are just as high leverage as closing. But DD has always, always heavily favored closers, even to the extent that he’d sign a free agent closer when he was hardly signing free agents at all. Valverde’s contract broke a string of three consecutive winters where the Tigers has not signed a single free agent to a multi year contract. That was done in a winter where they traded Scherzer and Granderson to clear payroll so that they could fill some other vacancies, beginning with closer as the chief priority. Urbina, Percival, Todd Jones twice, Lyon, and Valverde were all free agents that were signed as closers, so this should be a surprise to nobody.
While DD has not made a habit of stockpiling compensation picks like other GM’s have done, it’s very likely that Valverde will still be a Type A free agent in a year, so the picks will still be there as long as he is offered arbitration on the way out. But for this season, letting him go would have meant replacing him with another closer, and they are expensive on the open market, or by way of a trade. This really had to be done.
King of Minutiae...... fearless blog leader
Yup
Hopefully he rocks next season and we offer him arbitration.
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching
Contributor, Bless You Boys
by David Tokarz on Oct 30, 2011 1:30 AM EDT up reply actions
Yep, he's not Rivera
And that’s why he’s not being paid like Rivera. Even with a $2 million raise, he’s still $6 million behind.
I hate Jonathon Ericsson.
Easy option to pick up
Valverde probably deserved more money and years on his contract. He signed for less money that what he was currently making with the Astros. He probably took less money than what he would of received in arbitration. The market wasn’t good for Valverde that year. We got lucky to sign him when we did. Money was very tight and most teams already had a closer.
This year will be different. Many teams will be looking for a closer, but there will be many to chose from. It may take a 5 year/$50+ M deal to get one of the top closers.
I have no problem with this news
Is the Big Potato overpaid? Yep, as are most veteran closers. Is he due to regress? Probably, but it would be silly to expect otherwise after a 49-49 season.
But free agency is a crap shoot, There is no guarantee the Tigers could find a comparable closer for less or equal money. They would probably have to pay thru the nose and give more years than anyone would feel comfortable doing, or gamble on signing a setup man they think could step into the closer role.
And it’s pretty obvious none of the young relievers are near ready to step up. Would you want to go into the season with Perry or Schlereth as the closer? Even if you believe closers are overrated, as I do, I don’t.
Why bother going round and round trying to find a closer when all you have to do with Valverde is sign on the dotted line? Go with Valverde for another season, and see where things stand after 2012. By that time, maybe the Tigers will have an in-house candidate to close, or Valverde will have earned an extension. But until then, I’m fine with the status quo.
I'm owner/editor of The Wayne Fontes Experience a deputy editor at Bless You Boys, host the Bless You Boys Podcast and co-host The Knee Jerks podcast.
Can't really complain about the price of closers
Unless you draft a guy and he can do the job for you, which I think was the idea behind Ryan Perry, then you just have to pay the going rate. It’s like complaining about the price of gas. The reality of the current situation is that we have to have one, and replacing El Papa would cost more and you wouldn’t be getting an upgrade.
King of Minutiae...... fearless blog leader
I actually kind of agree with this
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching
Contributor, Bless You Boys
by David Tokarz on Oct 30, 2011 1:30 AM EDT up reply actions
Good for him and good for the Tigers
With the shape of the bullpen, this means one less arm to worry about. As others have stated, free agency is a spin-the-wheel scenario where you never really know what you’re going to get. Valverde might come down from this year’s awesomeness, but I don’ see him taking any major steps backward.
And on to those ideas that he is a fan favorite and brings some energy to the team, and I think it’s a good move.
Way off topic
Can we do one more game thread since this is the last baseball game of 2011?
"But the point is, finger-pointing is just what sports fans do when something doesn't go right." -- Kurt Mensching
by RealityIsOptionable on Oct 28, 2011 6:45 PM EDT reply actions
Of course this was going to happen
I just hope people aren’t too upset in the likely event that the Tigers have an average closer in 2012.
Non-tender Delmon Young
Valverde has been a top closer year in and year out
anyone can regress to the average, Valverde included, but he has a solid history over several years of getting the job done, and that is very rare for a closer.
King of Minutiae...... fearless blog leader
Agreed
It’s difficult to have 5 or more closers that are better at getting the job done.
There may be a list of 10 or 15 that have the potential to be more “dominant”, but on a night in and night out basis, Valverde is a top-5 guy.
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
He goes 35 of 40 next year?
He’s still very good, and valuable.
Justin can now let the fungus grow back on his shower shoes.
As long as he's not Todd Jones or Fernando Rodney
I just jinxed him, didn’t I?
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching
Contributor, Bless You Boys
by David Tokarz on Oct 30, 2011 1:31 AM EDT up reply actions
The way I see it,
Detroit signed Valverde to be the best closer they have had in years. They wanted to invest money in a good closer, and he was the best option (at the time). If he were to be an extremely rocky option out of the pen, to a point where Detroit was pressured to try another option, yeah.. he’d be gone. But if DD knew that Valverde was going to convert 75 of 78 save opportunities and each of his three in the playoffs, I am sure DD would have made that contract a three year deal to begin with.
Detroit put that 3rd year into the deal for a reason. They wanted to know they had another year’s worth of Papa Grande if he stayed healthy and didn’t absolutely suck.
One last thing to note. Valverde’s 2010 was extremely similar to his career numbers, and his 2011 was an absolute career year for the guy. I don’t know how anyone could be against this!
I feel like JV has made a career of mocking sabermetrics, making a joke of advanced statistics. All we can really do is cross our fingers and hope Detroit’s 9 million dollars investment can continue to have that Papa Grande swagger.
If he pitches as good in 2012 as he did in 2011, I doubt any of us will be complaining. Even if he blows a couple of saves, I doubt there will be many complaints about him. If he pitches like Todd Jones, then maybe the complaints will be warranted.
@Kyle_ftl

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