ALCS Poll: Position by Position Breakdown
Since I'm busy running around like a chicken with my head cut off, thanks to TigerDog for stepping up and writing this FanPost. --Kurt
Here is how I view the American League Championship Series, position by position. What do you think?
Rotation: The Rangers had a better team ERA for the season by a good bit, and slightly better after the break, despite playing in a tiny hitters' ballpark. In the post season, take out Ogando, who beat the Tigers three times during the season, and Brad Penny, who had the highest ERA and WHIP of any qualified starting pitcher in the league, and the Tigers close that gap. Verlander is the best pitcher in the league, and Fister was the best pitcher at the end of the season. Scherzer is a fly ball pitcher scheduled to start twice in a hitters' park, but he's on a roll and can be dominant. Porcello even pitched very well vs Texas. If Leyland was willing to use Verlander three times if necessary, the Tigers would have a clear advantage. But since he's not, there's a smaller edge to the Tigers.
Advantage: Tigers
Bullpen: The Tigers led the league in save percentage and were 79- 0 when leading after the seventh inning. Nobody has a better back end of the pen, despite false claims by the media about the Yankees' advantage. The Rangers have last year's Rookie of the year in closer Neftali Feliz, then went out at the trade deadline and picked up arguably the two best relief pitchers available in either league, in Koji Uehara and Mike Adams. The Tigers promptly greeted these two with game winning homers off each of them.
In middle relief, the Tiger bullpen sucks. Nobody can be trusted. One of the worst bullpens in the league was made worse by adding the worst qualified starting pitcher in the league for sentimental reasons. If it comes down to middle relief, the Tigers could be in trouble.
Advantage: Push
Offense The Rangers outscored the Tigers by 22 runs after the break. They hold a 3 point lead in batting avg, one point in on base pct, and 22 points in slugging, much of which might be attributed to ball park. The middle of the Tiger lineup matches up well with anyone, but the top of the order lacks the on base ability that could make the Tiger lineup an offensive juggernaut. The Rangers have been more consistent and have one of the top offenses in the league.
Advantage: Rangers
Defense This one is not close. The Rangers have a lineup full of two way players in both the infield and the outfield that can hit and field, and they also can run just for a bonus. Andrus is one of the best shortstops in the game for those whose defensive analysis goes beyond counting errors. With three lefties in the Texas rotation, Leyland likes to put one of the worst defensive infielders in the league at second base in Ryan Raburn. Putting Santiago at 2B eliminates this problem, but subtracts from the offense. Magglio probably will start in right field against lefties, giving the Rangers another significant defensive advantage. Delmon Young is a terrible fielder, as is Wilson Betemit if he finds his way into the lineup. Beltre is as good as they come at third base. Jackson and maybe Avila are the only possible areas where the Tigers may have an edge defensively, and the Rangers are not deficient in those areas.
Advantage: Rangers.
Manager Leyland is my manager of the year, but he still makes decisions that irk the bejaysus out of me, several of which I've highlighted here. No signficant advantage.
How they match up Three words. Rotation, rotation, rotation:
The Tigers got solid pitching across the board when they played the Rangers during the season. The four righties match up well with Texas' mostly righty lineup, and the Tigers mostly righty lineup matches up well with the Rangers 75% lefty gang. No Ranger pitcher beat the Tigers this season except for Ogando, who has been moved to the bullpen. The Tigers match up well with the Rangers.
Prediction: Tigers in Seven.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Bless You Boys writing staff.
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Um...
The Rangers have a far better bullpen then we do. Jose Valverde is just waiting to regress, too.
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching
Contributor, Bless You Boys
Overall, yes they do, but when it matters, I don't see a significant advantage and the back end of the Tiger pen is as good as it gets
and Valverde has been one of the top closers in the game for several seasons running now. Regress from 50 of 50? Of course, but he still gets the job done. If we’re into middle relief, there is a good chance that the game has been lost already.
I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!
Actually, I might have to take this back
They have a better xFIP as a unit (3.86 to 4.21 in the Rangers favor) but our FIP is better (3.98 and 4.38) while we’ve generated 1.4 WAR more than they have.
I still think it swings to their favor considering that Feliz/Uehara/Adams is tough to hit, but I can see where you’re coming from now.
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching
Contributor, Bless You Boys
The DEPTH of the Ranger pen gives them a huge advantage in that regard
not just because they’re better, but because the lack of depth forces Leyland to over work Valverde and Benoit.
I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!
Um...
Jose Valverde is just waiting to regress, too.
Every time you say someone is going to regress, they don’t. I like our chances.
Besides Boesch, but that was a different story
We all knew he was going to regress. Some of us just blindly enjoyed his hot streak longer than others.
Who else have I said would regress that hasn't?
Lloyd fixed Peralta (but he does have slightly high BABIP and HR/FB marks) and Avila’s a revelation (and most of this is true talent, though the BA will come down- again, BABIP).
Is Scherzer not getting screwed with a high HR/FB? Is the bad defense behind Porcello not limiting his potential? Please, help me out here, because I feel I’m getting called out for no reason (and considering there’s plenty of reasons to call me out…).
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching
Contributor, Bless You Boys
Regression and Valverde
Regression is a tricky term with Valverde. He’s been great in save situations this season and fairly lousy the rest of the time. Overall, his season numbers are very consistent with his recent history.
By regress, do you mean that he won’t go 49/49 next season? I agree, but that seems obvious.
By regress, do you mean that his overall line of ERA/WHIP/FIP/xFIP will be substantially worse next season or in the rest of the post-season? I doubt it. I don’t see any reason why he would get substantially worse in these areas from here forward. He’s already blown up once this post-season in a non-save situation, so that’s out of his system.
By regress, do you mean that he’ll blow a save sometime this post-season because he’s saved so many already? I doubt it. Sure, it could happen, but over his career, he’s saved 242 of 272 chances (88.9%). So, the statistical chances of him blowing a save over the rest of the Tiger wins is pretty low.
So…I don’t think he’ll regress in any sense other than we can’t realistically expect a 100% save conversion rate next year.
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
I mean we can expect his ERA to get worse
Perhaps significantly. The guy is carrying a 3.55 FIP and a 4.01 xFIP. He’s not a top flight closer.
Of course, that’s not to say he’s not a decent relief pitcher- he’s been worth one win consistently over his career. But still- to pretend he’s really good based on ERA and save percentage?
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching
Contributor, Bless You Boys
by David Tokarz on Oct 14, 2011 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions
ERA no, save percentage, yes
It’s like Jack Morris and wins. The guy pitches to the situation. When a guy comes in with a lead fifty times in a row and saves every game, at what point do you rule out luck and coincidence? And it’s not just this season. This isn’t Todd Jones or Fernando Rodney having one monster season. El Papa has a track record of recording saves. He locks in when he needs to and he gets the job done. If he regresses in his ERA, who cares? If he continues to have a higher than normal xFIP but continues to rack up saves, I’m totally cool with that.
I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!

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