Delmon Young off ALCS playoff roster, Danny Worth on
by Kurt Mensching on Oct 8, 2011 1:05 PM EDT
in Detroit Tigers News
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PrintThe Tigers released their ALCS playoff roster this afternoon, and it had one surprise, if you could call it that. Delmon Young, who suffered an oblique injury against the Yankees, will sit out this series. In his place, infielder Danny Worth will get a chance to view the post season up close. (Worth had been keeping fresh in Lakeland up until yesterday.)
The move was likely made as a precaution. If Young could not play regularly, he would be taking up a roster spot. If he had to be removed from the roster due to injury, he would miss the World Series should the Tigers advance that far.
It's possible the Tigers will miss Young's bat. He certainly performed well in the ALDS. On the other hand, truth be told it wasn't likely Young would continue hitting at such an insane pace either. Ryan Raburn will probably get a shot to show what he can do. He was 2-for-5 with three strikeouts in the ALDS. He batted .383 with an .453 OBP and .702 slugging average in September in 47 at bats. Defensively, well, Young, Raburn, whachagonnado?
Or maybe manager Jim Leyland will just put Don Kelly out there. In which case: AHHHHHHH!. Deep breaths. Trust in Leyland. Trust in Leyland. Trust in Leyland.
Worth can play multiple positions in the infield.
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Fine with this
Keeps Raburn in the outfield. If the Tigers make it to the final round Young will be eligible to play if he’s healthy, and Leyland will again look like some kind of genius. Go Tigers!
Wait til October...
I've been calling Raburn a possible X-factor on the BYB Podcasts
Now is the time to be that X-factor.
I'm owner/editor of The Wayne Fontes Experience a deputy editor at Bless You Boys, host the Bless You Boys Podcast and co-host The Knee Jerks podcast.
The Tigers may not miss Delmon
Despite hitting key homers in the LDS, DY is not a natural No. 3 hitter, and is not a good fielder. When Raburn is hitting, he is better in both areas of the game. Delmon was an upgrade to the lineup at the time that the Tigers acquired him because he bumped a struggling Magglio to the bench. When put in a role starting against lefties and the occasional righty, and always removed for a defensive replacement when leading, Maggs has been much more effective. In the second half, Raburn has been on a tear, especially against LHP’s. Moreover, Leyland would force Raburn into the lineup by putting him at second base and that kills the team defensively.
Delmon’s numbers against lefties are okay: .296 .343 .407 .750. His numbers against RHP’s do not justify his place in the lineup. The Tigers can completely replace Delmon’s production and upgrade defensively as long as the good Raburn shows up to replace him. Raburn’s splits vs lefties, even despite his first half struggles, are .288 .328 .497 .825
The question now is- who bats third? Magglio, still without any power, again? Raburn- minimizes lineup shuffling? Avila and Peralta would have been decent choices all season, but are struggling lately, and Avila would be facing three lefties in the Texas rotation. No great answers here, but I’d lean toward Raburn.
I wonder if we’ll see Andy Dirks in the outfield when the Rangers start Colby Lewis?
Wonder if Worth gets a start vs a lefty, even though Ramon hits better from the right side?
I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!
Yup
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching
Contributor, Bless You Boys
I'm okay with RR's defense in the outfield
even though he makes errors of judgment, takes funny routes and times, and scares the bejaysus out of us at times. He has the skills to play the outfield. Good strong arm, good speed and athleticism. It’s his judgment that gets him. Giving him more time to react in the outfield puts him in a much better position, especially when compared defensively to other left fielders around the league.
On the other hand, Delmon did hit the Rangers very well this season.
I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!
arm strength
Even the threat of a strong throw can help keep runners at third instead of scoring and give a pitcher a chance to get out of a jam. Raburn does have a solid throwing arm and is generally accurate enough to make a runner think twice.
If he contributes to more runs for the Tigers than against them I’m fine with this.
Random nonsense at @Baroque97
"It is a mistake to try to look too far ahead. The chain of destiny can only be grasped one link at a time." --Sir Winston Churchill (1874 – 1965)
We're also dealing with a less spacious field in Arlington
that means that RR will be playing a bit more shallow and all the RH hitters that pull the ball will probably get it out there more quickly. Less time to react, which may help or hurt him out there. In Delmon’s case, those factors would be even more of a negative, IMO.
Delmon’s numbers against Texas this season: .387 .406 .548 .955 in 32 plate appearances. Yeah, small sample FWIW.
Career: .321 .358 .539 .897 in 179 PA.
IN Arlington: .284 .309 .489 .797 in 94 PA
I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!
Lineup choices
Raburn should hit 3rd, but Ordonez will. Raburn’s career production against lefties is firmly established. Ordonez should hit 2nd, but Leyland will probably put Santiago there again.
Worth over Santiago makes no sense. Career splits are identical for Santiago from either side.
Don’t think Leyland’s going to choose Dirks over Raburn/Ordonez, even against a RH pitcher – but he will use Kelly.
“When X is hitting” is not a useful analysis – everyone is good “when they’re hitting.”
Leyland may use Dirks if he wants Kelly at 3B
With a RH heavy Texas lineup, Betemit’s defense at 3B is a bigger issue.
"When X is hitting" is not a useful analysis – everyone is good "when they’re hitting."
Not quite. If Santiago or Worth were to be Young’s replacement in the lineup, it doesn’t matter if they hit. With Raburn, he’s a better hitter than Delmon when the good Raburn shows up. If the bad Raburn shows up, this injury could be critical. That’s a point worth making.
The more comments that I read from Leyland, the more I become convinced that he does not appreciate the simple principle of getting guys on base in the top three spots in the order, and having some decent power in the 3 slot. I don’t understand how a manager thinks this way, but I love him anyway.
I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!
OK, it's sometimes worth recognizing when players are ON
Most guys, when they’re hot, can give you a .400 average and 900+ OPS, even Worth level players – that was my point. The hot guy is almost always better than the not hot guy.
Delmon is pretty ON right now, and I’d assert that when he’s hitting, ‘Good Delmon’ is even better than ‘Good Raburn’
Hopefully Delmon will be healthy if we advance to the WS.
It will be nice having another bat on the bench – be it Raburn, Maggs, Delmon – to pinch hit for the pitcher.
Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Young was the perfect matchup against ALL those Rangers Lefties!!!!!!!!!!!!!
goddam
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 8, 2011 1:34 PM EDT reply actions
Wow - shocked at the reaction here
I understand that Delmon isn’t an elite hitter and is somewhat replaced by Raburn/Ordonez, but here’s a few things to consider:
-He’s the #3 hitter
-He’s (arguably) the 3rd best hitter in the lineup (with Avila scuffling, Peralta regressing to career norms, and Ordonez continuing to show his age)
-His career average against lefties is over 300 and his OPS is 100 points better than vs Righties.
-He’s an elite talent with sky high potential
-No one else they put in front of Cabrera has the same kind of power to take advantage of the opportunity like Young does.
The reality is that this means a lot more of not only Raburn/Ordonez, but also, off the bench, Kelly, Santiago, and Betemit. I can’t say that’s a good thing for an offense headed for potentially 4 games in a hitter’s park.
It’s something the Tigers can overcome but it IS a big deal.
my take
Is that if the Tigers lose the series JUST because they didn’t have Delmon Young, they weren’t good enough to deserve to play in the world series. If Verlander, Valverde, Fister, Scherzer, Cabrera, Martinez, Peralta, et al aren’t good enough, then good luck Rangers against whoever represents the NL.
Random nonsense at @Baroque97
"It is a mistake to try to look too far ahead. The chain of destiny can only be grasped one link at a time." --Sir Winston Churchill (1874 – 1965)
Baseball doesn't work this way
You don’t lose just because of one thing or the other, but one thing or the other can make a fractional difference enough to shift a series. Especially considering playoff baseball is inherently so random.
which to me means
That is it pointless to get too worried about any one thing that is likely to be outweighed by any of a number of other more likely things. Young could as easily have dropped a key fly ball that led to a big inning as hit a key home run.
He’s one player in an entire lineup, and to single him out as the key or as insignificant is not very helpful. He’s hurt, even if he was on the roster and well enough to play he would be hobbled and less effective, so he is replaced with someone who is healthy and likely by virtue of that is nearly a wash. Sure it would be nice to have a healthy Delmon and stupid to replace a healthy Delmon, but that isn’t the situation they are in.
All they can do is pick someone who is capable of playing and see how it plays out. Who knows, Worth may hit a big home run as Kelly did. #shrug
Random nonsense at @Baroque97
"It is a mistake to try to look too far ahead. The chain of destiny can only be grasped one link at a time." --Sir Winston Churchill (1874 – 1965)
Worrying about things you can't control
is always pointless (and not helpful), but that doesn’t make them irrelevant.
it's not irrelevant
Just that in the list of “irreplaceable players” Delmon Young is lower than many other Tigers. He can’t be replaced exactly, but his offensive losses can be mitigated and his defense is average at best, so that isn’t a hard thing to replace.
Random nonsense at @Baroque97
"It is a mistake to try to look too far ahead. The chain of destiny can only be grasped one link at a time." --Sir Winston Churchill (1874 – 1965)
Even if you argue Raburn is as good as Young
(which is pretty dubious given the performance against LH pitchers)
you still lose significant punch off the bench.
Is is as bad as losing Avila, Cabrera, or Martinez? No. But you can apply the “losses can be mitigated” logic can be applied to almost anyone.
I will worry anyway
Hell, if absolutely nothing went wrong, I’ll still get nervous during the games. I live off that adrenaline.
I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!
True. We've been very fortunate, health wise, this season.
We haven’t had a major injury, other than Magglio and Carlos, that really threw a wrench into the engine. I don’t think we can conclude that the drop in production from those guys was entirely due to health, either, as they are naturally regressing with good ol age. A team has to be built to survive injuries. I think we’re in good shape here.
I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!
Honestly think Raburn is better on O + D, more speed , better arm
I didn’t really get it with Delmon, yeah he hit some homers but he swung at everything despite hitting in the catbirds seat knowing the pithcers have to throw him strikes. Any decent big league pitcher should be able to execute throwing it 6 inches off the plate , he is swinging regardless. The 2nd homer won the game but all of them were kind of lucky, 2 mistakes on first pitch knowing he is hacking and the first one was just a Yankee stadium short porch special.
Raburn has never got to hit 3rd, sure he can do better, heck is stats are better now. I get Delmon has some talent but it is obvious he has no plate discipline and I see no signs of that changing, he is never going to be good with the current approach. I really hope we don’t sign him past this year, especially at 5 or 6 million, that is absurd, he is replacement level and going to get worse in the field with age. Really can Dirks be much worse? He has some pop , what does it take to have a 298 OBP in front of Cabera, anybody can just swing for the fences and say screw it if they strike out, if you just don’t swing at everything the pitcher will have to throw you a decent pitch eventually. Dirks is actually a plus fielder and good runner.
Ridiculous
Raburn has struck out in 27% of his career at bats to Young’s 18%. Those are career numbers, and it looks even worse for Raburn this year.
And Young has no plate discipline’’??? I do wonder what leads you to draw this conclusion.
Doesn't matter
He had 8 HR and 32 RBIs in 40 games after being traded to the Tigers. Over a full season, that’s 32 HR and 128 RBI. Even a 25/100 season is well worth the lack of walks.
Raburn 300 avg, 850+ OPS, 2nd half in career n year
much bigger sample size and those are actually good stats.
25 homers with 298 OBP really isnt very good, 40 games isn’t the biggest sample size but I’m sure Delmon can hit 20-25 homers in 150 games.
RBI’s are completly worthless stat, only judges number of runners who get on in front of you.
So 32/128 isn't good?
RBI’s are completly worthless stat, only judges number of runners who get on in front of you.
Call me the next time a team wins their division based on their OPS and not the number of runs they score.
Give two players an equal number of opportunities with runners on base
and the guy with the higher OPS will have more RBI, guaranteed.
I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!
In all likelihood, yes
But it’s not correct to say that RBIs are a completely worthless stat.
As for the topic of this post, I’m fine with Raburn playing LF in this series. I’d like to see Dirks used as a defensive replacement in late innings, but I think that Raburn is a defensive upgrade over Young because of his arm. At the plate, I think it’s pretty much a wash between 2nd half Raburn and DY, provided the real 2nd half Raburn shows up.
I think the big thing that a lot of people are overlooking here is that Young isn’t necessarily being replaced by Raburn, he’s being replaced by whoever plays 2nd base instead of Raburn (against lefties, at least). The impact of DY’s injury should be judged by how Santiago/Worth perform at the plate, not Raburn.
They're damn near worthless, Rob.
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching
Contributor, Bless You Boys
yeah I have to say
the complaints about RBIs always seem silly and a bit over done by some in the saber community.
Like any stat there are good uses and bad uses for it.
by Kurt Mensching on Oct 9, 2011 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions
Raburn same OBP, higher SLG year + career and doesn't bat 3rd
I’d be willing to bet Raburn can do better than his career aveage hitting 3rd, all he has to do is not swing at pitches a foot off the plate. Plus his career and year stats includes his crappy 1st halfs , which we are out of. P
Raburn has more speed, better arm, I won’t say better fielder because neither one of them are good. there is a reason Delmon has a career WAR barely above replacement level after 5 years. He has more natural hitting ability but Raburn does have decent pop and is well above 800 OPS in every 2nd half including this year.
The pitchers have to like this
they’ll actually have infielders who can play the position this series.
So...hypothetically...
if Worth was to get injured in the middle of the series, could he be replaced with Delmon Young?
Lineup vs LH?
Probable:
1. Jackson (CF)
2. Santiago (2B)
3. Ordonez (RF)
4. Cabrera (1B)
5. Martinez (DH)
6. Raburn (LF)
7. Peralta (SS)
8. Avila ©
9. Inge (3B)
Preferred:
1. Jackson (CF)
2. Ordonez (RF)
3. Raburn (LF)
4. Cabrera (1B)
5. Martinez (DH)
6. Peralta (SS)
7. Avila ©
8. Inge (3B)
9. Santiago (2B)
Vs RH, Inge replaced by Betemit and Ordonez with Kelly.
You got your wish- Tonight's lineup
Jackson 8,
Raburn 7,
Cabrera 3,
Martinez dh,
Ordonez 9,
Avila 2,
Peralta 6,
Santiago 4,
Inge 5,
Verlander 1
I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!
One thing to keep in mind
Maybe DY wasnt the perfect #3 hitter in the lineup but it did make it more difficult to pitch around him and he seemed to get big hits at big moments based on that. And seemed to do it more often than any of his possible replacements did. Every time RR comes to bat or has a ball hit to him I immediately want to close my eyes and become religious. Since DY was traded for this team has been on a tear. Maybe coincidence maybe not. I really hope this injury doesnt come back to bite us in the @ss but it sure has me worried.
If it aint broke, tear it apart and see why it was working so well.
Delmon could be back either this series or for the World Series
Here’s the rule: A club can add a player to the roster prior to the start of a series provided that player was either
a) eligible for the post season roster by being either on the major league roster or the DL as of August 31, or
b) was in the organization on August 31 and he is replacing an injured player.
Boesch, Zumaya, and Brad Thomas give the Tigers three players that can be replaced. Delmon would be a fourth, but he does not have to be held out due to injury since the Tigers have three other “excuses” to use.
A player can be added to the playoff roster IN MID SERIES if another player on the roster becomes injured. A player that is replaced IN MID SERIES and is taken off the roster, can not be on the roster for that series, nor the following series. Also, a player that is replaced in mid series has to be replaced by a player that is the same position- either pitcher or position player. So, theTigers could not, for example, drop a pitcher in mid series and add Delmon even if the pitcher was injured. But it’s not mid series yet, so the Tigers are making this move between series under a less stringent set of rules than if they waited until mid series.
If Delmon had been taken off the roster after the initial rosters had to be submitted to the league office, he would not be eligible for the rest of this series or for the World Series. But now, he CAN be added back to the roster during this series IF he replaces an injured player. In that case the “injured” player would not be eligible for the rest of the ALCS or the World Series. Delmon may also be added back to the roster before the World Series, and the player that he replaces does not have to be injured.
Whether a player is “injured” is a matter that has to clear the league office, but has really been a mere formality in the past, such as placing a player on the DL.
We went around on this subject extensively as the playoffs approached. There was a bunch of bad and outdated information on the internet on this topic- much more bad than accurate, and MLB doesn’t put anything out on this other than obscure copies of the rules. Kurt managed to get to the bottom of the matter and sort it all out. The changes regarding playoff roster changes were altered both in the new CBA and apparently since then. Don’t be shocked if the Tigers come up with an injured player during the series and Delmon is added back before it’s over.
I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!
There is a small impact
The Tigers have a much worse pinch hitter and a faster pinch runner.
The Tigers can’t go all offense with Raburn at second and Young in LF. Now using Raburn means using Kelly, Dirks or Santiago.
It probably doesn’t matter much since Leyland doesn’t want to let Raburn play second postseason anyway.
You know I'm right about this.
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