2011 Tigers, Against The Odds

by Xeifrank on Nov 12, 2011 6:35 PM EST

Here is a look at how the Tigers 2011 actual results stacked up compared to what the Vegas odds makers thought of them throughout the season. If you take the win Vegas win expectancy from all 162 of the Tigers games and add them up, you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.5335 which translates to an expected win total of 86.43 games. If you do the same for my simulation of each Tigers game you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.5358 or 86.80 wins. The Tigers actually went 95-67 on the season. Amazingly, the Tigers were 32-7 in the top 39 games they were favored in. Below is a list of all 162 games with the Vegas odds for every game, the list is sorted by games in which the Tigers were the largest favorite to win.

Rank	Date	Away SP	Home SP	Away	Home	Fave	Fave Win Perc	DET Win Perc	Sim DET Win Perc	Winning Team	Away Runs	Home Runs	Total Runs
1	08-16-2011	Nick Blackburn	Justin Verlander	MIN	DET	DET	71.347	71.347	68.168	DET	1	7	8
2	09-24-2011	Jeremy Guthrie	Justin Verlander	BAL	DET	DET	71.098	71.098	66.85	BAL	6	5	11
3	09-11-11	Scott Diamond	Doug Fister	MIN	DET	DET	68.75	68.75	68.112	DET	1	2	3
4	06-30-2011	Mike Pelfrey	Justin Verlander	NYN	DET	DET	67.742	67.742	70.518	DET	2	5	7
5	09-02-11	John Danks	Justin Verlander	CHA	DET	DET	67.213	67.213	64.639	DET	1	8	9
6	08-27-2011	Justin Verlander	Carl Pavano	DET	MIN	DET	66.102	66.102	59.428	DET	6	4	10
7	08-06-11	Justin Verlander	Danny Duffy	DET	KC	DET	65.928	65.928	62.118	DET	4	3	7
8	06-09-11	Doug Fister	Justin Verlander	SEA	DET	DET	65.812	65.812	57.42	DET	1	4	5
9	04-27-2011	Erik Bedard	Justin Verlander	SEA	DET	DET	65.636	65.636	63.598	SEA	10	1	11
10	07-15-2011	Gavin Floyd	Justin Verlander	CHA	DET	DET	65.217	65.217	65.286	CHA	8	2	10
11	09-10-11	Anthony Swarzak	Max Scherzer	MIN	DET	DET	64.851	64.851	64.649	DET	3	4	7
12	08-11-11	Justin Verlander	Fausto Carmona	DET	CLE	DET	63.57	63.57	60.313	DET	4	3	7
13	09-13-2011	Justin Verlander	Gavin Floyd	DET	CHA	DET	63.57	63.57	54.291	DET	5	0	5
14	05-13-2011	Luke Hochevar	Justin Verlander	KC	DET	DET	63.303	63.303	69.398	DET	1	3	4
15	05-31-2011	Brian Duensing	Max Scherzer	MIN	DET	DET	63.303	63.303	62.069	DET	7	8	15
16	04-09-11	Bruce Chen	Phil Coke	KC	DET	DET	63.031	63.031	65.509	KC	3	1	4
17	06-14-2011	Justin Masterson	Justin Verlander	CLE	DET	DET	63.031	63.031	58.108	DET	0	4	4
18	06-25-2011	Josh Collmenter	Justin Verlander	ARI	DET	DET	62.894	62.894	67.576	DET	0	6	6
19	08-30-2011	Jeff Francis	Doug Fister	KC	DET	DET	62.617	62.617	66.7	DET	1	2	3
20	09-18-2011	Justin Verlander	Guillermo Moscoso	DET	OAK	DET	62.617	62.617	57.24	DET	3	0	3
21	04-08-11	Kyle Davies	Max Scherzer	KC	DET	DET	62.406	62.406	65.269	DET	2	5	7
22	05-29-2011	Josh Beckett	Justin Verlander	BOS	DET	DET	62.264	62.264	48.415	DET	0	3	3
23	09-23-2011	Alfredo Simon	Rick Porcello	BAL	DET	DET	62.264	62.264	60.16	DET	3	4	7
24	07-02-11	Barry Zito	Max Scherzer	SF	DET	DET	61.832	61.832	67.136	SF	15	3	18
25	07-10-11	Justin Verlander	Jeff Francis	DET	KC	DET	61.832	61.832	59.532	DET	2	1	3
26	08-29-2011	Luke Hochevar	Max Scherzer	KC	DET	DET	61.686	61.686	66.156	KC	9	5	14
27	09-28-2011	Zach McAllister	Rick Porcello	CLE	DET	DET	61.686	61.686	63.845	DET	4	5	9
28	09-07-11	Justin Verlander	Justin Masterson	DET	CLE	DET	61.464	61.464	49.622	DET	8	6	14
29	09-27-2011	Jeanmar Gomez	Max Scherzer	CLE	DET	DET	61.464	61.464	64.449	DET	6	9	15
30	06-27-2011	Zach Stewart	Max Scherzer	TOR	DET	DET	61.165	61.165	66.589	DET	2	4	6
31	09-01-11	Danny Duffy	Jacob Turner	KC	DET	DET	61.014	61.014	62.839	KC	11	8	19
32	05-24-2011	Wade Davis	Justin Verlander	TB	DET	DET	61.014	61.014	60.295	DET	6	7	13
33	06-16-2011	Mitch Talbot	Max Scherzer	CLE	DET	DET	60.707	60.707	63.034	DET	2	6	8
34	04-22-2011	Mark Buehrle	Justin Verlander	CHA	DET	DET	60.239	60.239	63.427	DET	3	9	12
35	09-09-11	Kevin Slowey	Brad Penny	MIN	DET	DET	60.08	60.08	55.693	DET	4	8	12
36	07-21-2011	Justin Verlander	Carl Pavano	DET	MIN	DET	60.08	60.08	58.185	DET	6	2	8
37	07-26-2011	Justin Verlander	Jake Peavy	DET	CHA	DET	60.08	60.08	55.68	DET	5	4	9
38	09-25-2011	Brian Matusz	Brad Penny	BAL	DET	DET	60	60	55.956	DET	6	10	16
39	06-01-11	Scott Baker	Rick Porcello	MIN	DET	DET	59.92	59.92	59.683	DET	2	4	6
40	07-16-2011	Edwin Jackson	Max Scherzer	CHA	DET	DET	59.432	59.432	57.576	CHA	5	0	5
41	08-31-2011	Felipe Paulino	Rick Porcello	KC	DET	DET	59.432	59.432	60.563	DET	4	5	9
42	04-10-11	Luke Hochevar	Rick Porcello	KC	DET	DET	59.1	59.1	66.746	KC	9	5	14
43	09-22-2011	Zach Britton	Jacob Turner	BAL	DET	DET	59.1	59.1	54.02	BAL	6	5	11
44	05-16-2011	Kyle Drabek	Max Scherzer	TOR	DET	DET	58.592	58.592	62.945	TOR	4	2	6
45	06-24-2011	Zach Duke	Phil Coke	ARI	DET	DET	58.246	58.246	62.009	ARI	7	6	13
46	07-29-2011	Tyler Chatwood	Rick Porcello	LAA	DET	DET	58.071	58.071	61.196	DET	2	12	14
47	08-14-2011	Doug Fister	Jo-Jo Reyes	DET	BAL	DET	57.895	57.895	56.885	BAL	5	8	13
48	08-15-2011	Francisco Liriano	Rick Porcello	MIN	DET	DET	57.895	57.895	57.567	MIN	9	6	15
49	08-20-2011	David Huff	Doug Fister	CLE	DET	DET	57.895	57.895	63.26	DET	1	10	11
50	06-28-2011	R.A. Dickey	Rick Porcello	NYN	DET	DET	57.356	57.356	61.132	NYN	14	3	17
51	05-14-2011	Jeff Francis	Brad Penny	KC	DET	DET	57.173	57.173	58.81	DET	0	3	3
52	07-19-2011	Guillermo Moscoso	Rick Porcello	OAK	DET	DET	57.173	57.173	61.302	DET	3	8	11
53	08-26-2011	Rick Porcello	Scott Diamond	DET	MIN	DET	57.173	57.173	57.133	DET	8	1	9
54	09-26-2011	Ubaldo Jimenez	Doug Fister	CLE	DET	DET	57.173	57.173	62.767	DET	0	14	14
55	05-30-2011	Nick Blackburn	Brad Penny	MIN	DET	DET	57.082	57.082	62.101	DET	5	6	11
56	08-22-2011	Justin Verlander	Jeff Niemann	DET	TB	DET	56.989	56.989	55.124	DET	5	2	7
57	09-04-11	Mark Buehrle	Max Scherzer	CHA	DET	DET	56.803	56.803	58.955	DET	2	18	20
58	06-26-2011	Joe Saunders	Brad Penny	ARI	DET	DET	56.803	56.803	61.705	DET	3	8	11
59	06-19-2011	Justin Verlander	Aaron Cook	DET	COL	DET	56.616	56.616	52.712	DET	9	1	10
60	07-28-2011	Joel Pineiro	Brad Penny	LAA	DET	DET	56.616	56.616	59.081	LAA	12	7	19
61	08-17-2011	Carl Pavano	Brad Penny	MIN	DET	DET	56.616	56.616	53.365	MIN	6	5	11
62	08-19-2011	Josh Tomlin	Max Scherzer	CLE	DET	DET	56.616	56.616	61.179	DET	1	4	5
63	07-31-2011	Jered Weaver	Justin Verlander	LAA	DET	DET	56.427	56.427	60.61	DET	2	3	5
64	06-15-2011	Fausto Carmona	Brad Penny	CLE	DET	DET	56.236	56.236	57.127	CLE	6	4	10
65	04-06-11	Justin Verlander	Brad Bergesen	DET	BAL	DET	56.14	56.14	53.091	DET	7	3	10
66	04-13-2011	Dave Bush	Max Scherzer	TEX	DET	DET	55.654	55.654	56.096	DET	2	3	5
67	04-11-11	Alexi Ogando	Justin Verlander	TEX	DET	DET	55.556	55.556	61.381	TEX	2	0	2
68	06-29-2011	Chris Capuano	Phil Coke	NYN	DET	DET	55.457	55.457	62.344	NYN	16	9	25
69	07-07-11	Max Scherzer	Danny Duffy	DET	KC	DET	55.056	55.056	60.948	DET	3	1	4
70	08-13-2011	Max Scherzer	Jeremy Guthrie	DET	BAL	DET	55.056	55.056	52.226	DET	6	5	11
71	06-04-11	Justin Verlander	Edwin Jackson	DET	CHA	DET	54.853	54.853	48.029	DET	4	2	6
72	06-10-11	Erik Bedard	Brad Penny	SEA	DET	DET	54.649	54.649	52.885	SEA	3	2	5
73	05-20-2011	Brad Penny	Jeff Karstens	DET	PIT	DET	54.649	54.649	47.14	PIT	1	10	11
74	07-20-2011	Brandon McCarthy	Duane Below	OAK	DET	DET	54.649	54.649	54.746	OAK	7	5	12
75	05-21-2011	Max Scherzer	Kevin Correia	DET	PIT	DET	54.338	54.338	49.063	PIT	2	6	8
76	04-24-2011	John Danks	Max Scherzer	CHA	DET	DET	54.023	54.023	56.789	DET	0	3	3
77	07-01-11	Madison Bumgarner	Brad Penny	SF	DET	DET	53.811	53.811	51.593	SF	4	3	7
78	04-16-2011	Justin Verlander	Dallas Braden	DET	OAK	DET	53.811	53.811	50.16	OAK	2	6	8
79	08-07-11	Max Scherzer	Bruce Chen	DET	KC	DET	53.488	53.488	57.158	KC	3	4	7
80	06-11-11	Michael Pineda	Max Scherzer	SEA	DET	DET	53.488	53.488	53.441	DET	1	8	9
81	09-16-2011	Doug Fister	Trevor Cahill	DET	OAK	DET	53.38	53.38	53.284	DET	3	1	4
82	07-03-11	Ryan Vogelsong	Rick Porcello	SF	DET	DET	53.162	53.162	56.979	DET	3	6	9
83	07-08-11	Rick Porcello	Kyle Davies	DET	KC	DET	53.162	53.162	57.551	DET	6	4	10
84	06-13-2011	Alex Cobb	Phil Coke	TB	DET	DET	53.162	53.162	54.353	DET	1	2	3
85	07-05-11	Justin Verlander	Dan Haren	DET	LAA	DET	52.941	52.941	52.353	LAA	0	1	1
86	04-18-2011	Max Scherzer	Jason Vargas	DET	SEA	DET	52.941	52.941	50.181	DET	8	3	11
87	05-02-11	Bartolo Colon	Justin Verlander	NYA	DET	DET	52.719	52.719	50.504	NYA	5	3	8
88	04-28-2011	Michael Pineda	Brad Penny	SEA	DET	DET	52.719	52.719	54.498	SEA	7	2	9
89	05-26-2011	Alfredo Aceves	Max Scherzer	BOS	DET	DET	52.494	52.494	53.89	BOS	14	1	15
90	08-21-2011	Ubaldo Jimenez	Rick Porcello	CLE	DET	DET	52.494	52.494	55.275	DET	7	8	15
91	05-27-2011	Tim Wakefield	Rick Porcello	BOS	DET	DET	52.267	52.267	51.112	BOS	6	3	9
92	06-21-2011	Max Scherzer	Chad Billingsley	DET	LAN	DET	52.267	52.267	43.23	LAN	1	6	7
93	08-28-2011	Brad Penny	Brian Duensing	DET	MIN	DET	52.267	52.267	48.885	MIN	4	11	15
94	05-07-11	Justin Verlander	Ricky Romero	DET	TOR	DET	52.153	52.153	47.667	DET	1	0	1
95	05-22-2011	Rick Porcello	Paul Maholm	DET	PIT	DET	52.038	52.038	44.309	DET	2	0	2
96	07-17-2011	Phil Humber	Brad Penny	CHA	DET	DET	51.923	51.923	54.587	DET	3	4	7
97	09-15-2011	Max Scherzer	Brandon McCarthy	DET	OAK	DET	51.923	51.923	44.832	OAK	1	6	7
98	05-04-11	Freddy Garcia	Max Scherzer	NYA	DET	DET	51.807	51.807	46.963	DET	0	4	4
99	04-29-2011	Max Scherzer	Jeanmar Gomez	DET	CLE	DET	51.807	51.807	56.399	CLE	5	9	14
100	08-02-11	Colby Lewis	Max Scherzer	TEX	DET	DET	51.574	51.574	55.987	DET	5	6	11
101	08-05-11	Rick Porcello	Felipe Paulino	DET	KC	DET	51.338	51.338	48.028	DET	4	3	7
102	05-23-2011	Jeremy Hellickson	Phil Coke	TB	DET	DET	51.338	51.338	54.305	DET	3	6	9
103	04-19-2011	Phil Coke	Doug Fister	DET	SEA	DET	51.1	51.1	45.318	SEA	3	13	16
104	09-21-2011	Max Scherzer	Felipe Paulino	DET	KC	DET	50.98	50.98	49.55	DET	6	3	9
105	08-12-11	Brad Penny	Alfredo Simon	DET	BAL	DET	50.86	50.86	49.245	DET	5	4	9
106	07-22-2011	Max Scherzer	Brian Duensing	DET	MIN	DET	50.739	50.739	47.551	DET	8	2	10
107	06-12-11	Felx Hernandez	Rick Porcello	SEA	DET	DET	50.495	50.495	48.245	SEA	7	3	10
108	05-08-11	Brad Penny	Jo-Jo Reyes	DET	TOR	TOR	50	50	46.471	DET	2	5	7
109	05-10-11	Rick Porcello	Francisco Liriano	DET	MIN	MIN	50	50	51.115	DET	10	2	12
110	05-11-11	Phil Coke	Scott Baker	DET	MIN	MIN	50.617	49.383	51.173	DET	9	7	16
111	06-22-2011	Rick Porcello	Ted Lilly	DET	LAN	LAN	50.617	49.383	47.371	DET	7	5	12
112	08-24-2011	Max Scherzer	Wade Davis	DET	TB	TB	50.617	49.383	52.087	TB	2	3	5
113	08-03-11	Matt Harrison	Doug Fister	TEX	DET	TEX	50.739	49.261	55.098	DET	4	5	9
114	04-23-2011	Edwin Jackson	Brad Penny	CHA	DET	CHA	50.86	49.14	51.143	DET	0	9	9
115	05-05-11	A.J. Burnett	Rick Porcello	NYA	DET	NYA	50.98	49.02	48.097	DET	3	6	9
116	09-14-2011	Brad Penny	Dylan Axelrod	DET	CHA	CHA	51.1	48.9	50.063	DET	6	5	11
117	04-20-2011	Rick Porcello	Erik Bedard	DET	SEA	SEA	51.456	48.544	50.381	DET	3	2	5
118	09-03-11	Gavin Floyd	Brad Penny	CHA	DET	CHA	51.923	48.077	53.265	DET	8	9	17
119	05-06-11	Phil Coke	Jesse Litsch	DET	TOR	TOR	52.038	47.962	49.032	TOR	4	7	11
120	04-30-2011	Rick Porcello	Alex White	DET	CLE	CLE	52.153	47.847	56.51	CLE	2	3	5
121	07-27-2011	Max Scherzer	John Danks	DET	CHA	CHA	52.153	47.847	49.674	CHA	1	2	3
122	05-29-2011	Clay Buchholz	Andrew Oliver	BOS	DET	BOS	52.381	47.619	47.818	BOS	4	3	7
123	06-17-2011	Rick Porcello	Jason Hammel	DET	COL	COL	52.381	47.619	38.969	COL	6	13	19
124	04-26-2011	Felx Hernandez	Phil Coke	SEA	DET	SEA	52.494	47.506	48.143	SEA	7	3	10
125	07-06-11	Brad Penny	Tyler Chatwood	DET	LAA	LAA	52.719	47.281	49.477	DET	5	4	9
126	05-09-11	Max Scherzer	Brandon Morrow	DET	TOR	TOR	52.719	47.281	45.476	DET	10	5	15
127	09-12-11	Rick Porcello	John Danks	DET	CHA	CHA	52.719	47.281	48.366	DET	14	4	18
128	09-20-2011	Brad Penny	Luis Mendoza	DET	KC	KC	52.719	47.281	51.83	KC	2	10	12
129	09-06-11	Rick Porcello	Fausto Carmona	DET	CLE	CLE	52.941	47.059	48.885	DET	10	1	11
130	07-09-11	Charlie Furbush	Luke Hochevar	DET	KC	KC	52.941	47.059	54.439	KC	6	13	19
131	09-05-11	Doug Fister	Ubaldo Jimenez	DET	CLE	CLE	53.162	46.838	49.173	DET	4	2	6
132	07-04-11	Charlie Furbush	Joel Pineiro	DET	LAA	LAA	53.596	46.404	48.645	LAA	1	5	6
133	07-24-2011	Rick Porcello	Francisco Liriano	DET	MIN	MIN	54.233	45.767	45.364	DET	5	2	7
134	04-04-11	Rick Porcello	Jake Arrieta	DET	BAL	BAL	54.751	45.249	42.999	BAL	1	5	6
135	07-30-2011	Dan Haren	Duane Below	LAA	DET	LAA	54.853	45.147	49.906	LAA	5	1	6
136	08-09-11	Doug Fister	Justin Masterson	DET	CLE	CLE	55.257	44.743	46.753	CLE	2	3	5
137	04-12-11	C.J. Wilson	Brad Penny	TEX	DET	TEX	55.457	44.543	43.094	DET	4	5	9
138	04-07-11	Brad Penny	Chris Tillman	DET	BAL	BAL	55.556	44.444	43.271	BAL	5	9	14
139	08-04-11	Alexi Ogando	Brad Penny	TEX	DET	TEX	55.85	44.15	46.178	TEX	5	2	7
140	04-15-2011	Rick Porcello	Brandon McCarthy	DET	OAK	OAK	56.236	43.764	48.057	DET	8	4	12
141	07-23-2011	Brad Penny	Scott Baker	DET	MIN	MIN	56.236	43.764	42.385	MIN	1	4	5
142	05-19-2011	Justin Verlander	Josh Beckett	DET	BOS	BOS	56.989	43.011	38.13	BOS	3	4	7
143	06-03-11	Andrew Oliver	Mark Buehrle	DET	CHA	CHA	57.356	42.644	43.226	CHA	4	6	10
144	07-25-2011	Duane Below	Mark Buehrle	DET	CHA	CHA	57.356	42.644	46.009	CHA	3	6	9
145	05-01-11	Phil Coke	Justin Masterson	DET	CLE	CLE	57.447	42.553	42.808	CLE	4	5	9
146	06-07-11	Rick Porcello	Matt Harrison	DET	TEX	TEX	57.717	42.283	40.666	DET	8	1	9
147	06-06-11	Max Scherzer	Colby Lewis	DET	TEX	TEX	58.246	41.754	41.415	DET	13	7	20
148	08-10-11	Rick Porcello	Ubaldo Jimenez	DET	CLE	CLE	58.42	41.58	46.321	CLE	3	10	13
149	03-31-2011	Justin Verlander	C.C. Sabathia	DET	NYA	NYA	58.506	41.494	41.09	NYA	3	6	9
150	04-14-2011	Phil Coke	Gio Gonzalez	DET	OAK	OAK	58.506	41.494	41.049	DET	3	0	3
151	08-25-2011	Doug Fister	Jeremy Hellickson	DET	TB	TB	58.592	41.408	54.055	DET	2	0	2
152	09-17-2011	Rick Porcello	Gio Gonzalez	DET	OAK	OAK	58.592	41.408	46.01	OAK	3	5	8
153	06-05-11	Brad Penny	Jake Peavy	DET	CHA	CHA	59.1	40.9	43.774	DET	7	3	10
154	06-20-2011	Brad Penny	Clayton Kershaw	DET	LAN	LAN	59.432	40.568	36.585	LAN	0	4	4
155	06-18-2011	Phil Coke	Ubaldo Jimenez	DET	COL	COL	59.839	40.161	40.753	COL	4	5	9
156	04-17-2011	Brad Penny	Trevor Cahill	DET	OAK	OAK	60.239	39.761	40.028	OAK	1	5	6
157	04-03-11	Max Scherzer	Phil Hughes	DET	NYA	NYA	60.317	39.683	45.983	DET	10	7	17
158	05-18-2011	Phil Coke	Clay Buchholz	DET	BOS	BOS	61.165	38.835	42.902	BOS	0	1	1
159	05-03-11	C.C. Sabathia	Brad Penny	NYA	DET	NYA	61.39	38.61	35.105	DET	2	4	6
160	06-08-11	Phil Coke	Alexi Ogando	DET	TEX	TEX	62.617	37.383	39.721	TEX	3	7	10
161	04-02-11	Brad Penny	A.J. Burnett	DET	NYA	NYA	62.825	37.175	37.593	NYA	6	10	16
162	08-23-2011	Brad Penny	David Price	DET	TB	TB	65.812	34.188	39.697	DET	2	1	3

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Bless You Boys writing staff.

Tweet Comment 5 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Not surprised to see how many Verlander games were ranked highly

and how many Penny games were in the bottom.

I Like Pie

by mrsunshine on Nov 13, 2011 2:40 PM EST reply actions

Did you compile all teams

or just Detroit? If all, would love to see each team’s

Baseball is like a poker game, nobody wants to quit when he's losing: nobody wants you to quit when you're ahead. ~Jackie Robinson

by LittleLeagueTiger on Nov 14, 2011 1:48 PM EST reply actions

I compiled all teams

I am Fanposting them one or two per day at the SBN baseball sites. I"ve done all of the AL/NL Central teams along with the Rays so far. Visit their sites to see their results. I will do an all encompassing post at my blog in about a week or two with team summaries (Actual vs Vegas, Sim etc…).

Dodger Sims | Twitter | Xei On Sports

by Xeifrank on Nov 14, 2011 5:38 PM EST up reply actions