Raise your hand if you don't want Grady Sizemore

//momotigers raises hand...looks around room for others...finds nobody...sulks

There's a ton of clamoring lately to SIGN GRADY SIZEMORE.  Sizemore's seemingly endless fanclub boasts that "He's a great player" and "He'll be less than 9M because that's what the Indians decided not to pay him" and "He's certainly worth a chance."  

I disagree with at least two of these statements, if not all three.    

Grady Sizemore was an exceptional athlete in high school.  He was a standout in the "big 3" sports and signed a letter of intent to actually play college football at University of Washington.  When you see players like this, they often get the label "5-tooled players".  If a baseball scout backs up that notion, even better.  

The mythical 5-tooled player is like the marshmallows in the box of Lucky Charms - they're the best part, but there ain't too many of them.  Fans and executives start  having visions of Willie Mays, Barry Bonds, and Wilkin Ramirez.  Grady was your classic 5-tool player.  It's important to understand what those five tools are: 

1. Ability to hit for average
2. Ability to hit for power
3. Fielding ability
4. Throwing ability 
5. Baserunning speed and ability

Unlike Wilkin Ramirez, Sizemore lived up to his potential.  His breakout year in 2005 showcased all five.  He hit .289 and slugged .484. He was on highlight reels everywhere as a CF with the legs to track it, the hands to catch it, and the arm to throw it.     He swiped 22 bases to complete the package.  

He got even better in 2006 as he raised his average slightly to .290, boosted his slugging to .533, played solid defense, and kept his SB at 22 while getting thrown out a little less.  

In 2007 and 2008, he again posted great numbers, but his SLG fell to about .500 or below for both years.  His average started trending downward while he increased his SB rate.  He was still a great player - the dropping average was offset in terms of OBP by an increased BB%.  The defense was still great.  His 2008 season of .268 avg. / .502 SLG / 8.9 UZR / and 38/43 SB showcased a great  four-tooled player that was missing only the average component.    

2009 marked his first season plagued by injury.  He had surgery on both a hernia and his elbow (his throwing elbow).

In 2010, he played in 33 games before he had microfracture surgery on his left knee.  

In 2011, his recovery from the microfracture surgery was slow, but he eventually returned.  However, his season was cut short by a contusion to the right knee, continued discomfort in the right knee and another hernia problem (more surgery).

Sizemore has never hit at .300 or higher.  Granted, not many do and I'm perfectly happy saying that a .290 hitter is one that hits for average.  The problem with Sizemore is that he's much more likely these days to hit .260 than .290.  He's not one that's going to contribute significantly in this area.  

Another of his "5 Tools" has been robbed by the elbow surgery of 2009.  I'm sure the Sizemore's arm was once pretty good, although he wasn't the QB on his football team.  However, after major surgery on his throwing elbow, I'd be very hesitant to call his throwing ability a plus tool any longer.  In my book, he's down to three tools.

Finally, you have to consider the knees.  The microfracture surgery is undoubtedly a major one.  True; it's healed and re-habbed.  He's clear to play on it, but you still have to question it's durability and whether it's as good as new.  To me, the right knee is just as troubling.  That's the one that gave him so much trouble after coming back last year.  It was diagnosed with a contusion and then kept acting up.  It's balky and the doctors don't know why or aren't saying why.  Heck, the doctors and team that knows him best, Cleveland, declined the 9M option.  If Sizemore was going to be even close to the player he was in 2005-2008, he's a steal at 9M.  My guess is that the knees just aren't the same.  Take away a man's knees, and I'm going to take away two more tools:  Great CF defense and the ability to steal 20+ bags.  I bet he defense will still be steady and he'll still be able to take a few bases, but they're just not plus tools any longer.  

The only true plus tool this guy has left is power.  I'll give Sizemore 20 dingers next season.  Heck, he might get 30 in the right setting.  What people need to realize is that they're bidding for a one tool player. 

The persistent knee and groin problems do not bode well for Sizemore.  In my mind, it's unlikely that he plays an entire season.  I'd make my first bet that he only logs about 300 AB's.  If I get that one wrong, I'll offer my guess on his stat line for the season, being a one-tooled player:  .250 Avg, 29HR, .477 SLG, 10SB.  Actually, those are roughly Josh Willingham's 2011 numbers with a few extra SB's.  With Willingham, however, he'll cost less and be a pretty safe bet to give you those numbers.  I'm guessing Sizemore will cost more and carries a heavy risk of giving you 300 AB's or less.   

There will be lots of teams bidding for Sizemore's services.  MLB Trade Rumors reports that The Cubs, Rangers, Giants and Yankees are potential suitors for Sizemore, along with the Phillies, Rockies, Red Sox and Indians.  There's some deep pockets on that list.  I don't believe he'll sign below 7M unless it's incentive laden or for several years.  The big boys should all be kicking the tires, so he'll have his offers.  The memories of the 5 tooled player will be strong and GM's will be able to bump that offer a bit for what was once that rare marshmallow.  Unfortunately, he's just like the rest of the cereal these days.