How High Can Tigers' 2012 Payroll Go?
by Tigerdog1 on Nov 2, 2011 7:06 AM EDT
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If theTigers intend to upgrade their roster during the coming off season, or even to replace the players that will depart due to expiring contracts, they’re going to need to increase payroll above 2011 levels. A little payroll math shows that, after the Tigers picked up the option on Jose Valverde and dumped Brad Thomas, as expected, payroll will be a few million dollars below opening day 2011, before filling any of the vacancies created by expiring contracts, even if they are to be filled by players making the major league minimum $ 414 K per season (subject to change with the new CBA). Essentially, it's almost a wash, and payroll today stands a little below where it was on opening day, 2011.
Following is an updated breakdown of the Tigers' payroll, the impact of departing free agents, expiring contracts, scheduled salary increases, and pending arbitration increases. As a reference point, we use 2011 opening day payroll of $ 107 million. The information is updated to include the additions of Delmon Young, Wilson Betemit, Doug Fister, and David Pauley, and the subtractions of our dearly departed free agents, pending arrival of their replacements.
2012 TIGER PAYROLL ADJUSTMENTS
EXPIRING CONTRACTS:
Carlos Guillen $ 13 Mil
Magglio Ordonez $ 10 Mil
Brad Penny $ 3 Mil
Joel Zumaya $ 1.4 Mil
Ramon Santiago $ 1.35 Mil
Total Expiring Contracts $ 28.75 Million
SALARY INCREASES
Justin Verlander $ 7.25 Mil
Jose Valverde $ 2.0 Mil
Miguel Cabrera $ 1.0 Mil
Victor Martinez $ 1.0 Mil
Ryan Raburn $ 800 K
Jhonny Peralta $ 250 K
Total Salary Increases $ 12.3 Million
ARBITRATION INCREASES (EST)
Delmon Young (5.373 Mil) +$ 6.5 Mil * (fn 1)
Max Scherzer (600 K) + $ 3- 4 Mil
Rick Porcello (1.3 Mil) + $ 3 Mil** (fn 2)
Phil Coke (440 K) +$ 1 Mil
Brad Thomas (800 K) + $ 0 *** (fn 3)
Don Kelly (425 K) + $ 300 K
Total Estimated Arbitration Increases + 14.3 Million
SUMMARY
Total Expiring Contracts -$ 28.75 Mil
Total Salary Increases +$ 12.3 Mil
Total Estimated Arbitration Increases + 14.3 Million
$ 800 K additional reduction for removal of Brad Thomas
$ 2.95 Million net reduction (estimate)
Calculations are prior to vacancies being filled.
VACANCIES
Outfielder to replace Ordonez
Second baseman to replace Guillen
Third baseman to replace Betemit/ Inge
Starting pitcher to replace Brad Penny
Relief Pitchers to replace Joel Zumaya and Brad Thomas
Infielder to replace Santiago
Replacements could come from within, at a cost of $ 400 K each
THE BOTTOM LINE is that the total payroll is projected to be just a few million under 2011 opening day after subtracting the expiring contracts, and adding the salary increases and arbitration increases. That’s without replacing the players whose contracts are expiring. Even if most of those players are replaced mostly with minor leaguers earning the major league minimum salary of $ 414,000.00, payroll will not be going down in 2012. Essentially, this means that every new player that the Tigers acquire by trade or by free agency will increase their payroll dollar for dollar in an amount equal to their annual salaries. Hopefully, a nice boost in revenue from a playoff run in 2011, plus an anticipated boost in season ticket sales for 2012 will allow for an increase in payroll to near previous levels seen in recent years. Let the off season begin!
FN 1: Delmon Young’s full estimated $ 6.5 million is added to the total payroll, since he was not on the 2011 opening day payroll at all.
FN 2: Cot's contracts at one time had a note that Porcello could opt for arbitration instead of the club option in 2012 if he was eligible. That note has disappeared, but if that's the case, he'd surely opt for arby instead of a $ 1.3 MM salary next year, and that would put him in the 3- 4 mil range as a first year eligible SP. MLB Trade Rumors reports that arbitration would override the club option and Porcello is arbitration eligible as a "super two". Kid Rick is now included in the arbitration increase estimates.
FN 3: The Tigers attempted to outright Brad Thomas during the season, but he reported an injury and was instead placed on the 60 day disabled list. Since he is arbitration eligible, it is expected that he will be non tendered and become a free agent. In any case, he will not receive a salary increase. Final calculations assume that Thomas is non tendered. He was outrighted earlier this week and may choose free agency, which is also likely.
FN 4: The contracts for Doug Fister and David Pauley will neither increase nor decrease the total payroll, since they are essentially taking the place of others making at or just above the major league minimum. Neither player is eligible for arbitration until the 2013 season. The contract of Wilson Betemit is neither a savings nor a cost, since he was not on the opening day roster in 2011 and is a free agent at the end of the season.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Bless You Boys writing staff.
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Personally
I think the Tigers could afford a payroll between $140-150 million for about 2 years tops. At which point, you’d have to shave off about $50 million for the next few years two to recuperate.
Realistically, they could probably go between $120-135 million and sustain that for a decent amount of time.
by TartanElk on Nov 2, 2011 12:10 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
They can increase payroll a bit
Bedard made $1 million and is effective starter when healthy which could be useful to give the kiddies more time at AAA. Could use Bedard in playoff against Yanks. Wheeler not a wow me pitcher but he get the job done. Fortunally there are few right hand hitting catcher available. None of these players will cost you your first round pick and not trying up future payroll. This also leaves payroll clearance for a trade. This will cost additonal 8 to 12 million dollars.
Scrap what I write if they land Reyes even though DD says no to this. Giving the ball to Perry in the late innings is a concern, unless he works on his cutter.
I think DD could go to $ 125 million and have room left for a deadline deal.
But I think his preference is to swing a trade wherever possible. The big question to me is whether DD and JL value guys that can get on base near the top of the lineup AT ALL, given what we’ve seen from them in terms of leadoff, no 2 and no 3 hitters in recent seasons. Neither Granderson nor AJax has been an ideal fit leading off. Damon replaced Polanco adequately in the 2 slot for the better part of a season, but that spot has been a revolving door since Polly left. Hopefully, either Boesch or Avila can step into the 3 slot and we don’t need to add a power bat, because that’s where the real expense comes in. Adding a couple of guys that get on base and play solid defense shouldn’t cost a bundle, and they could fill those spots, add a veteran starter as insurance for the rotation, and be sitting pretty to fill any holes in July.
"King of Minutiae"
What is an ideal fit leading off?
Who on our team would do better? I actually love having AJax lead-off. I want synergy at that lead-off spot and with AJax we get great results.
I think Ajax:
1) Provides energy / Excitement / A spark to the rest of the team
2) Manufactures runs / Takes the extra base / Stays out of double plays .
3) Great Athlete / Very Durable / Everyday Player
Those are all the constants.
Batting average and OBP are really just variables.
This season, AJax helped manufacture 80 runs (90 runs scored – 10 HR’s). So 80 times he got on base and scored. That’s actually very good!!!
In the AL, the only lead-off hitters with more manufactured runs (Runs – HR’s) were Kinsler (89) and Ellsbury (87). So it wasn’t by much either. In 2010, AJax lead the majors with 97 manufactured runs!
You just can’t plug anyone with a better OBP into the lead-off spot and expect better results. You need a guy that can score from 1st on a double. Get from 1st to 3rd on a single. Score from 3B, with less than 2 outs on any ground ball or fly ball to outfield. You need good smart baserunning more than anything, with some ability to get on base.
Edit that
In 2010, AJax lead the majors (lead-off hitters only) with 97 manufactured runs (Runs – HR’s).
Lead-off is a good place for another reason
K’s aren’t so bad there. When the bases are empty, an out is just an out…doesn’t matter how. AJax is guaranteed to have empty bases at least once per game and depending on how our #9 hitter is, maybe a lot more than that.
When we start talking about moving him down to #8 or #9, it becomes much more likely that his 190 strikeouts will come with more people on base, perhaps 3rd base, where getting contract is much more important.
Furthermore, “staying out of double plays” is much more dependent on the guy running to 1st than the guy running to 2nd. You can have Ricky Henderson sitting on first as a leadoff, and if Dave Henderson is batting behind him at #2 or 3 and hits a sharp grounder, it doesn’t matter much that Ricky can fly. The throw will beat Ricky to 2nd and will also beat slow Dave to 1st. So, Jackson’s speed would play better batting behind people in this regard.
Now, I said all of that so I could be agreeable with you Keith, because I feel like I haven’t been lately. With that being said, I’d still love to have an OBP guy in the #1 hole and Jackson in the #9 hole. It would simply increase our mathematical chances of scoring runs. Assuming an OBP of .370 vs. Jackson’s .320, with 660 PA per year, the .370 guy will be on base, IN FRONT OF MIGUEL CABRERA and our #3 hitter, an additional 33 times. Give me the 33 baserunners instead of your top 3 categories. Chances are also good that a new #1 hitter would also have many of those characteristics.
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
^This^
K’s are frustrating, no doubt, but they are especially frustrating with a man on and nobody out, and the runner on base is sitting right where he was before the AB.
For me, leading off is all about getting on base and being able to move around the bases. As Leyland said “on base, on base, on base”. AJax actually had a pretty good OBP for three months of the season, but in the other months he absolutely reeked, and he killed us in the post season. The Tigers have a murderer’s row in the heart of the lineup starting with Cabrera, but some of the lowest OBP’s in the league in the top three spots in the order, apart from when Boesch was in one of those slots. THAT is what has to be addressed by DD this winter. Putting guys that get on base in those slots would directly lead to an increase in run production.
Speed is a secondary consideration, but a consideration, nonetheless. Having a runner on that could steal a base is a distraction to the pitcher and helps the next hitters get more fastballs to hit. It also leads to more runs. It helps to have a guy in the 2 slot that can shoot the ball through the gap on the right side of the infield. Polanco and Maggs were excellent in that regard.
"King of Minutiae"
Exactly.
How many more runs would we score with high OBP guys in front of Miggy?
My girlfriend gets it! She told me during the ALCS, “Yeah, he hit a homerun but he needs to do it when people are on base.”
Cabrera/VMart
60% of Cabrera’s hits were singles.
70% of VMart’s hits were singles.
That OBP guy needs to be able to run too.
OBP vs Speed
I estimate that a .425 OBP from a poor baserunner is equivalent to a .320 OBP from a great baserunner (like AJax). The poor baserunner is usually scoring about 20-30% of the time they get on base. AJax has scored about 40-45% of the time when he reaches base. He might be making more outs with his bat, but it takes fewer hits or outs to drive him in.
AJax with a .320 OBP is going to score about 80 times in 200 chances.
Slow guy with .425 OBP is going to score 60 times in those same 200 chances. Slow guy with .425 OBP will need 266 chances to score those same 80 runs.
In most cases, that slow guy hits 30+ Homers a year, so that makes up for the fact that he’s clogging up the base paths. He might be making fewer outs with his bat, but it takes more hits and outs to get him in.
Runs are a function of what the following hitters do at the plate
and are independent of the guy on base for the vast part of the equation. Cabrera scored 20 more runs than AJax did because he got on base more often, and he drove himself in more often.
"King of Minutiae"
Part of that is true, part of that is false
Minus Cabrera’s HR’s, he scored 81 times. Minus AJax’s HR’s, he scored 80 times. Minus Homers, Cabrera scored just 1 more time, despite the far greater OBP.
Scored more runs in 19 fewer At Bats, because he gets on base more often.
And hitting a home run is part of OBP also.
Cabrera also didn’t have Cabrera to drive him in.
It’s ALL true.
When AJax is getting on base, he’s fine in the lead off role. When he’s not, he’s killing the team in that spot.
"King of Minutiae"
That's one of the flaw's of the OBP stat
That Homers are part of it. In reality, it’s not getting on base all.
I will agree that OBP is a problem for AJax
but IMO, he does make it up with his speed.
We can only wish that we had Brett Gardner instead.
He might atone for a .325 OBP with speed, but not the months where he gets on at a .250 pace
It’s not a flaw that a guy gets on base and scores a run in the same AB is counted in OBP. Anything but. The ultimate stat, in my book is wOBA- weighted on base average, which works out to about (1.7 x OBP) + SLG = wOBA. Batters at the top of the order should be more gifted in the OBP stat, and batters in the heart of the order should be more prolific sluggers, but they all have to get on base to score runs.
"King of Minutiae"
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