Austin Jackson a solid player who bats too high
Just like last year, we'll be grading all the Tigers who contributed significant playing time over the course of the season, starting with the position players, then doing the rotation members, and finally finishing up with the bullpen and writing profiles for players without enough playing time to earn a grade. Each list will run in alphabetical order. These reviews will occasionally dip into sabermetrics so we can get a better idea why things happened, but I'll try to explain as we go through things.
Austin Jackson
Remember a year ago when everyone was excited because Austin Jackson had finished his rookie season with a near-.300 batting average? Remember how they disregarded warnings that Jackson was not going to be able to sustain that kind of number for his career because so much of it was assisted by luck?
Well, this season is a lot close to the reality of Austin Jackson's batting line than last year was. He continued to strike out too much and not walk often enough. This year, those balls that seemed to have eyes of their own found fielder's mitts a lot more often.
Fortunately, he remained a stellar fielder, who was a finalist for an AL Gold Glove award, per ESPN, and was named the MLB's best center fielder by the Fielding Bible.
Run prevention is pretty important. With few good fielders anywhere else, and numerous memories of outstanding catches that saved runs and sometimes even wins, Jackson has more than earned his spot in the everyday lineup.
Unfortunately, he just shouldn't be batting anywhere in the top seven spots.
B
At the plate:
There's no denying, Austin Jackson was a below average batter. You can't even make any excuses about his being a center fielder, because you don't have to look hard to find a list of center fielders who hit better than him in 2011.
The chief difference between 2010 and 2011 for Jackson was the line-drive rate. Jackson's batting line last year was driven by a LD% of 24.2%. This year, that figure dropped to 16.8%. Although we tend to think of LD% as being a figure that stays pretty consistent, there was little reason to hope for it to remain at that level -- which is basically MLB elite and hard for anyone not named Joe Mauer to repeat and way above even Miguel Cabrera. Furthermore, looking at his minor league figures at FirstInning.com shows Jackson did not have a history of extremely high LD%. He had done it before, but he also has extremely low figures showing a real up-and-down player. In the end, that's going to make it hard to predict what Jackson does, well, basically ever. But it also makes you doubt he can maintain elite hitting status with any regularity at all.
Add in the fact that Jackson strikes out a lot and doesn't have a real high walk rate and you have a recipe for disaster if everything isn't working well. In the end, Jackson's batting season looked rather dismal even with a rather fair .340 BABIP (.333 xBABIP, fwiw.)
There were maybe two bright points. One was that Jackson developed a bit of power. Many have said to expect that as he ages. He hit 10 home runs in 2011, giving him his highest isolated power (.125) since his 2007 minor league season. The other was that Jackson did take his leadoff job serious and attempted to work the counts well. That gave him among the highest pitcher per plate appearance on his team. So that was good.
In the end, I feel like it's safe to say he can put up a better season at the plate in 2012, but you shouldn't expect it to be remotely near his rookie year. He's better off near the bottom of the lineup, but the Tigers will have to find a leadoff hitter because they really don't have anyone who you'd expect to hit the mold. (And going non-traditional is never going to happen in the MLB.)
In the field
OH JACKSON!
OK, let's just get this out of the way right now: Jackson is not afraid to get his uniform dirty. It seems to be a theme that only recently developed. I saw it suddenly show up on Twitter in October. Then I saw it show up on our Facebook page in comments.
Jackson doesn't dive for the ball often. So what? He is an elite defender by any measure you want to use. I don't care if he doesn't dive. If he doesn't feel like that's an area of his game he feels comfortable with, he shouldn't do it. If he dove and the ball got past him, well with those corner outfielders the batter's going to have a nice triple. Or more.
You could waste a lot of enjoyable time watching his highlight reels. You've heard his accolades already. Probably should have won the Gold Glove for CF. Did win the Fielding Bible award for best CF in the MLB.
That's good enough for me.
In 2012:
As I've alluded to, he shouldn't be expected to hit 300. Nor 250, I would guess. I find it perfectly reasonable to expect the line drive rate to go up a bit. Given his history and minor league numbers, I wouldn't be surprised to see the BABIP go up along side it. And if he can do that and maintain power, he's going to be an acceptable batter. In the field, he's Austin Jackson. What more do you need me to say?
People rushed too quickly to jump on the bandwagon. Now they're rushing too quickly to jump off. I say, just enjoy what you've got. An elite defender who sometimes helps out at the plate and who's really exciting when the ball find the gap.
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B
I love Jackson as a defender. As a leadoff guy he makes me want to drown kittens.
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He doesn't dive for the ball.....
pretty much because he doesn’t have to more often then not.
by Anthony Steven Lewis on Nov 2, 2011 1:31 PM EDT reply actions
He should bat 8th or 9th
When Mike Ditka calculates pi it's decimal representation ends.
by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on Nov 2, 2011 1:37 PM EDT reply actions
Top Need: Leadoff Hitter
In talking about what the Tigers should add this off-season, the focus tends to be on position. Yet getting someone who can consistently get on base at the top of the order is probably more important. This would allow Jackson to move down to the 8-9 spots where he belongs. Yes, a number of positions are locked up (DH, C, 1B, CF) but there’s also a great deal of positional flexibility in the rest of the regulars (e.g., Raburn, Peralta, Inge, Santiago), at least in theory – Inge may be unwilling to move from 3B.
The greatest improvement would come if the Tigers could add an top-of-the-order infielder. That infielder could squeeze aside Inge or Santiago into a utility role and allow Jackson to slide down the order without feeling demoted or disrespected.
Watching Jackson
he could be so much more with more contact. Biggest issue is his timing, he can’t plant his foot down in time with his leg kick. It was very frustrating watching it all year. When his timing was down he went on streaks and looked great. I don’t think we have seen the best of Jackson’s offensive ability yet.
The best thing the Tigers can do is bat him lower, he has the talent to be a all star and just needs some more time at the bottom of the order to get his timing right.
Hard to understand why they don't have him bunt more.
bunt for base hits, not sacrifice
by rea on Nov 2, 2011 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions
C
Because last year was a B
Justin can now let the fungus grow back on his shower shoes.
I gave him a C
He’s half a player right now. Most of use expected the average to drop. I’m thinking we’ll see a bit of an increase next year; maybe .260-.270 is where he’ll settle in.
The K-rate isn’t improving and it’s somewhat foolish to expect it will. Most K hitters don’t get much better. If you look at the league leaders in K’s for 2011, you’ll see names like Reynolds, Howard, Granderson. If you look at K leaders for 2006 – 2010, you’ll also see a lot of instances of Reynolds, Howard, Granderson. Simply put, improving in this department is way easier said than done.
Unfortunately for Jackson, most of these guys are threats to hit 30+ bombs per year and Jackson will be lucky to hit 15 next season.
His walk rate was better this year, but his K-rate we worse. His ISO improved, so the power aspect might be coming a bit.
I’ll agree with the general assessment that he’s not a top-of-the-order hitter.
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
I gave him a C
His fielding (at least during the reg. season) gave him an A+…. but his batting and fielding (especially in the Postseason) gave him a D, he strikes out WAY TOO much for a leadoff hitter. I hope DD addresses that during the Offseason, hell get Polanco back?
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I wanted to give him a C
But I couldn’t. His defense is too good.
I would like to see him avg these last 2 seasons at the plate. If he can figure out his issues at the plate and become a .270 hitter, I would be beyond elated.
God ain't got no use for a 180 lb bag of sugar.
B.
A for defense. C- for hitting. I think he’ll bounce back a little next year, but I just don’t see him as a lead off hitter. bottom of the order guy with speed…
Country Strong
C.
Ranked 7th or 8th among qualified CF’ers in most offensive categories, tied for sixth in steals, doesn’t rank well at all offensively as a lead off man, but well above average defense brings him up to average.
"King of Minutiae"
Austin Jackson
I think his fielding deserves an A; his batting a C. I agree with most on this post that he needs to be in the 8 or 9 spot in the batting order. Hopefully, he will start hitting better, maybe bunting once in a while for a base hit, or to move another runner up. I watched the game where Jackson made the catch which is posted in the picture above (at KC’s Kaufman Stadium). I cheered out loud. It’s easy to make a comparison between Jackson and Curtis Granderson because of their outfield positions and top of the batting order. I think Jackson will improve at the plate. I remember when Granderson struck out a lot. Look at him now.
Yep, trimmed his K% down to 24.5% this season, his highest since 2006
All the way down to 4th in the league with 169.
Kidding..sort of. I know what you mean in that Curtis put up some great run production numbers this season. That being said, if we’re going to keep this parallel going between Jackson and Granderson, I think Jackson has the potential to follow a similar path. I don’t think AJax will become drastically better with his K-rate, but I do believe he’ll develop some power that could get him into 20+ HR land someday.
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
LOL
Outstanding. Lou Brown couldn’t have said it better.
by TigersFanInAlabama on Nov 3, 2011 7:36 AM EDT up reply actions
C
Fielding, he was a god. Half man, half amazing. He like Vince Carter slam dunking a basketball.
Hitting. He had problems with his timing and hitting approach. I don’t think it so was much about luck on why he had a poor swing.
At the beginning of the year, he tried a different hitting approach, like he was always in a 2 strike count. He kept his leg kick down and was just trying to make weak contact with the ball. Leyland can take some of the blame here because that’s what he wanted AJax to do thinking that it would cut down on his strikeouts. This approach failed miserably. He had his worst month ever.
In May, he got some of his timing back by going with his bigger leg kick, but he was still hitting in that compromising 2 strike contact mode. His numbers were better, but not nearly as good as the previous season.
Finally, in mid-August, he gave up that silly 2 strike contract approach. This is where he had his only great stretch of the season. From August 12th to September 4th, in 23 games, 105 PA’s, he hit .352 AVG, .404 OBP, and .997 OPS. At this time, he had a well timed leg kick, was swinging the bat hard, and spraying the ball everywhere.
Unfortunately, that didn’t last, by the end of the year, he had went from one extreme to another. His leg kick was off and his swing got overly aggressive.
He had growing pains. He’ll make more progress if he learns from this season. Overall, I liked what I saw from a 24 year old in his 2nd season. The C grade means he was satisfactory and I was satisfied. I’d be happy to have AJax again as my starting CF and lead-off hitter. I think he’ll only get better.
C
We need better production at the plate from an outfielder. Period.
I think his “regression to the mean” pendulum swung to the opposite side of where his career mean should be. I also blame the old “sophomore slump.” I think he can be a .280 hitter with a little bit of power and better judgement on the basepads in the long term. I don’t think there’s any reason to be too concerned — I think the pendulum will swing a little bit back in the other direction next season, bringing him back to a B-minus/B player. He has the tools, he just needs some work.
I see him in a similar light as Granderson in his earlier years. If he can so something about his K rate, getting balls into play can only help him. He’s got the speed to beat out double plays and maybe a few fly balls can end up being sac flies.
Most importantly, he needs to be taken out of the lead-off spot. He’s just not an OBP player.
B, if only because there is no B-minus.
Best CF in all of baseball by some measures (4th best according to UZR, which is the low outlier) and below-average-but-not-bad production at the plate (90 wRC+). He may never be a truly plus hitter, but as an up the middle defender with great glove skills, he’s already a plus ballplayer at 24. Barring another crazy BABIP-fueled season, he probably has a 4-5 win ceiling if he develops some power or baserunning skills. Of course, when he’s batting 7th or 8th he’ll be able to steal much more often because he won’t be risking making an out in front of Miggy.
B for reasons others have said
But, he really should have won the gold glove. If you cloned him you could cover the Boston outfield with just those two players.
haha
He’s already covering 2/3s of Comerica with delmon/raburn/bosch/magglio in the lineup
Like most I gave Austin a C
There is no doubt that he is one of the best Centerfielders in the game today. That no diving complaint is one I understand but do not neccesarily agree with. Too many time Austin pulled up and fielded a single that appeared to be catchable had he stretched out and dove for it. But remember, like the young Brandon Inge, he gets close to balls that no one else would so when he fails to dive it looks like he is giving up on the ball. It’s Comerica Park though and we have to remember that if the ball gets by him the runner doesn’t stop his parade around the bases until he is standing on third. Those balls that become singles when A-Jax doesn’t dive become singles instead of doubles and triples. I can live with that.
Hios performance at the plate is a different story. Too many called third strikes. Too many 0-2 counts. Too many stirkeouts period for a leadoff hitter. That being said I hope that in Lakeland Austin gets to spend some quality time with Leon Durham. It’s obvious that Legendaryy Lloyd cannot assist this young talent maybe the Bull can get through to him. If it works and A-jax then stumbles durting the season, a week or two at Toledo may help.
Course my real hope is that Legendary Lloyd gets interviewed and hired as a Manager somewhere leaving an opening for Durham on Leyland’s crew.
The number one thing about AJ that impresses me is his jump he gets on balls.
A lot of ‘great’ outfielders play themselves into great plays. Not Austin Jackson. He makes great and quick first moves and takes good routes to balls. A lot of the balls he tracks down would outrun even speedier CFs who don’t get the jumps and reads he does. He saves a lot of runs in the spacious CoPa CF.
by playoffbeard on Nov 3, 2011 9:09 AM EDT via mobile reply actions

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