Brad Penny ate innings at back of rotation
by Kurt Mensching on Nov 29, 2011 12:16 PM EST
in Detroit Tigers Analysis
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Just like last year, we'll be grading all the Tigers who contributed significant playing time over the course of the season, starting with the position players, then doing the rotation members, and finally finishing up with the bullpen. This list is in alphabetical order. These reviews will occasionally dip into sabermetrics so we can get a better idea why things happened, but I'll try to explain as we go through things.
Brad Penny
Brad Penny single handedly held up this entire series for like, two weeks. But I guess at some point I have power through this and keep moving forward, right?
Penny was, let's be charitable, not the most exciting player on the team. But he did the job he was signed for: eating innings at the back of the rotation. He did it reasonably well. Actually, I'd hazard the guess he did it better than some expected based on his experience in Boston.
Penny finished the season with a not-so-pretty 5.30 ERA amassed over nearly 182 innings. He had quality starts in 42% of his games, and his team won in 51.6% of his starts despite rotation-low run support.*
*Phil Coke's was actually lower but he finished the year in the bullpen.
So in the end, I think I'll give Penny a C-. He was below average, but not completely awful.
Not that Penny's stats were all that impressive. In some ways, his numbers were worse than in Boston. He had a career low K/9 (3.5) and the highest BB/9 since 2008 with 3.1. H and his defense also failed to limit hits, so he came in at a career high 11 H/9. Remarkably though, his ERA was actually more than half a run higher than his expected FIP of 4.77 and a third of a run higher than his FIP of 5.02.
His best month in the Detroit uniform was May. He appeared to have broken through with seven innings of no run ball in late April, and was playing up to the ability he had shown in the Cardinals uniform a season earlier. Counting the first three starts of May, he'd allowed two-runs-or-fewer in three of four games. However, the fourth start of May resulted in a bit of step backwards. He finished the month with 3 wins and a 3.24 ERA in five starts.
In June, Penny allowed three-runs-or-fewer in four of five starts, so at least there was consistency and the kind of pitching that would allow his team a chance to win most games.
Penny appeared to run out of gas after the All-Star Break. His strikeout rate fell, his walk rate increased. The result was a second half ERA that was nearly 2 runs worse (6.49) than in the first half (4.38).
In 2012:
A lot of people don't realize this, but Penny won't be back in the Tigers uniform in 2012. (Most people on this site know that, but start talking to your friends who don't follow baseball quite as close and they'll bring up Penny's name.) Given how his season in Detroit went, I think he'll find it hard to be guaranteed a spot in anyone's rotation at this point, but I'm sure he'll be given the chance to pitch somewhere if he so chooses.
Just don't expect much.
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I can't be objective about this.
The lasting impression I will have of Penny in 2011 is him going after Victor because he didn’t like the signs he was getting. You are dead to me now, Brad Penny.
"Some guy told me I should walk with the Lord. I'd rather walk with the bases loaded" Ken Singleton
by NCDee on Nov 29, 2011 12:28 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Very disappointing
Penny was someone I thought would make a significant difference on the staff. In retrospect they should have just let Bonderman come back.
I was under the impression Bonderman didn't want to come back.
"You spend a good piece of your life gripping a baseball, and in the end it was the other way around..." Jim Bouton
by JimWalewander on Nov 29, 2011 12:43 PM EST up reply actions
D
Meh.
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching
Contributor, Bless You Boys
couldn't have put it better
yeah, he ate up innings at the bottom, and kept us in a few games , but he was pretty terrible. Bye Bye Brad
Country Strong
by Rusty Kuntz on Nov 29, 2011 12:42 PM EST up reply actions
Penny was valuable
If for no other reason, his taking the ball every 5th day and cheesing over 180 innings kept DD from bringing up Turner or Smyly too early.
Justin can now let the fungus grow back on his shower shoes.
I give Brad a C (which is what he was brought in to be)
he was a 5th starter (no, Coke was not a 5th starter). Penny’s job was to keep the Tigers in the game. He did this overall and he exceeded this for that one, glorious, stretch.
Would I like to have a better guy in the 5th slot? Sure! Would I take this performance from him again and be content? Yes I would.
Those who forget the past are condemned to repeat it.
I hated him
but he was fine, his ERA was awful, but in the 5th spot next year if the tigers can get a pitcher (not Turner) that can go 10-10 or so and throw 180+ innings I will take it.
I wanted to knock the TV over every time I’d turn it on and remember he was scheduled that day but a guy like this is needed to go far into the season.
by WorldSeriesTiger on Nov 29, 2011 2:09 PM EST reply actions
I gave him a D
…..and reluctantly that high only because his fiancee is hot. I expected a veteran like him to be a mentor to younger pitchers and a positive force in the clubhouse. From all indications, he was a horrible teammate.
Good riddance.
"i think it will be mostly feast the rest of the year,"
Yep, I've heard he's a slug
Poor conditioning, poor attitude, not bright.
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
D from me
The guy wasn’t a league average pitcher, which is what a ‘C’ would imply. (I’ve got a nice warm ‘C’ waiting for you though Mr. Porcello).
He was a pretty hittable pitcher who’s stuff never got the results it should have. He ate innings for us and kept us in many games, so it’s not like I can flunk him, but I can certainly think of three better pitchers for every worse one.
I hope this spot in the rotation is a little better for the home boys next year. And with only one sketchy spot headed into the off-season, I think we’re poised to get much better production from #5.
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
I Gave Perry A "C"
“so it’s not like I can flunk him, but I can certainly think of three better pitchers for every worse one.”
Are you saying there are 3 better #5 starters for every 1 worse?
Or:
Are you saying there are 3 better starting pitchers for every 1 worse?
I must admit, Perry performed much better than I expected. I thought he did a good job as a #5 starter. A Hell of a lot better than Porcello as a #3 starter last year, he is more like a #5 starter in my opinion.
by TigersFan1957 on Nov 30, 2011 3:36 AM EST up reply actions
In my reasoning, I was thinking your second option (the bold one)
Last year, I did these grades relative to their role on the team. I think I gave Don Kelly a pretty good grade because he was good at what he did. This year, I’ve just decided to grade them relative to the pool of all players at their position. So, in my mind, Penny compares to all starting pitchers and he’s a D. (I can see the logic in grading the other way, but then you might end up with strange results, like Santiago getting a ‘B’ as a pretty good role player and Boesch getting a ‘B’ as an above average outfielder. Both grades seem sensible in their respective contexts, but I think we all agree that Boesch should be worth more than Santiago.)
However, when you mention it, I do believe that there were probably a lot of #5 starters that were better than Penny as well (probably not 3:1, but perhaps 1:1)
Penny was workable as a #5, but nothing to get hung up on. I’d say he did his job, but he’s still a ‘D’ pitcher to me.
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
C-
did what he was supposed to do… nothing more, sometimes less.
No longer the Founder, President and CEO of the Ryan Raburn Fan Club
I gave him an F.
He ate innings, but then puked some back up and left the place in a big stinking mess. During days that he pitched, mop-up men were at full alert and were at his disposal. Unfortunately, Brad Thomas and David Purcey weren’t wearing their hazmat suits and fell victim to the meat ball plague that Penny hosts.
On the other hand, Penny was the victim. It was up to him to pitch the game following Justin Verlander’s. I imagine everything he threw looked like a meat ball compared to Verlander. Also, Penny who admittedly doesn’t like pitching in day games, had 19 starts in the afternoon. That’s really a perfect storm. He just wasn’t following Verlander, he was following Verlander the very next afternoon after a night game. So he was put in some very tough circumstances, that were beyond his talent and comfort level.
Lastly, Brad Penny’s fiancee, Karina Smirnoff, is pretty hot. Keeping up with her must take nearly everything out of him. Perhaps Penny’s next gig will be as her partner on Dancing with the Stars.
D. Hey, could have been much worse
A badly performing team would probably never consider ditching Penny. Only really disappointing because he was a “4th man” who became a 5th. Still a .500 win season.
PS, did Santiago really not contribute to enough games (101) to be included? I thought that’s who you were stalled on, not Penny. Skipping Rhymes and Worth makes enough sense, but I thought Santiago would get a profile.
hm? Santiago's season recap is here:
http://www.blessyouboys.com/2011/11/14/2561002/ramon-santiago-the-kind-of-role-player-teams-need
No longer the Founder, President and CEO of the Ryan Raburn Fan Club
whoops
and I’m pretty sure I read that too, but it wasn’t showing as aheadline in my blog reader and is also missing the “Detroit Tiger Analysis” tag/header, so when I looked for it again I didn’t find it and forgot it existed.
by Nonsuch Ned on Nov 30, 2011 12:58 PM EST up reply actions
Ball-One-Brad
Annoying, tedious, an arrogant idiot. I will say this for his performance; it ran off the little russian fiancee who’d have bilked him for every penny….every penny, get it? :)
Grade: F
Reason for no run support
I gave Penny a D and believe that the team had a lack of confidence in him (as did I) and, as a result, just didn’t produce runs when he was pitching for them.
by Parrothead Mike on Nov 29, 2011 4:12 PM EST reply actions
There isn't a sabermetric category for how well a pitcher's own offense performs
but you should definitely spend the whole offseason creating one.
by lesmanalim on Nov 29, 2011 8:45 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Boring as batshit
I would give him an “F” as well not only for his mostly sucky pitching but also because he wasted ten minutes of my life with his tweets (for the two weeks that I followed him) that mostly consisted of him pleading for all to vote for his fiancee on that dancing show and how he likes to hunt with his dad.
Maybe, but I hate Penny more.
Twitter is free. This chump costs millions.
Checking Twitter takes seconds. Watching this monkey pitch five laborious innings = 2 1/2 hrs.
he....worked.....soooooo.......slowwwww....
That it would drive me crazy! I do seem to remember a September start against the Rays where he was way better that usual, though, He was also
a .500 (10-10) pitcher at the end of the rotation, so I gave him a generous C.
Where are the trolls?
Shouldn’t one of them(at least)be giving Penny an “A”?
Justin can now let the fungus grow back on his shower shoes.
D
While he wasn’t horrendous, you could pretty much expect 5 runs on the board before he got pulled every outing (except the first couple of months). He was terrible, and he will not be missed.
You can make all the excuses about “day games” and pitching after Verlander, but at the end of the day, he’s supposed to be a Major League pitcher, but I doubt he was even replacement level (caveat: didn’t look up his WAR).
Here you go...
B-ref lists him as -0.4
Fangraphs has him at 0.8
Average = +0.2
So yeah, easily replaced.
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
by momotigers on Nov 30, 2011 10:36 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
D
I didnt like him, and he was kind of a dick….
"Goaltending is a normal job, sure. How would you like it in your job if every time you made a small mistake, a red light went on over your desk and 15,000 people stood up and yelled at you."
-Jacques Plante
C
The majority of the teams this year had a worse fifth starter. Hell, the last couple years we havent had a fifth starter to eat up innings and get double digit wins. We can find someone better but he did what was asked.
President of the "Bring back Neifi Perez" fan club.
Change my vote to E
Brad Penny finished 2nd worst in MLB FIP and xFIP among qualified starters. Even if we go nice on him and base our opinion on what his role was, he would still be an E.
I’d rather say he ‘got through’ innings than ‘ate’ them, assuming he wasn’t pitching another one of his 3-inning crapfests.
That, plus he was a dick.
by NintendoPlaystationNumbers on Nov 29, 2011 6:28 PM EST reply actions
C-
Worth at least that for a 5th starter depending on what one expects from the 5th in line for the rotation. Seemingly a good 5th starter can at least get you to the 5th and let the pen take over. Pen always had a lot of work when he pitched.
Highest ERA and highest WHIP among qualified starters in the American League in 2011
If his Biography were a movie, it would be called “As Bad As It Gets”.
Actually, we’ve seen worse over the years, but after the break, in particular, Penny was just getting shelled on a regular basis. The fact that he won 11 games is a credit to his team’s offense.
"King of Minutiae"
So I take it you gave him an "E"
Well, so did I. :-)
I looked for a D minus and it wasn't there
Yeah, I voted E, but I don’t think he was a total failure until after the break. I think we can and will do better in that slot next season.
"King of Minutiae"
Brad Penny
I think you are being a bit harsh on Penny. He was signed for what $2m?? or so. He won 11 games. No very many teams had a fifth starter with 11 wins. Plus, he was not always in the fifth slot, facing the other teams “worst” starter. I know stats and numbers are hard to argue against. His post All-Star stats are worse than I expected. But I keep coming back to his role on the Tigers: eat innings, win 10 games, give us a chance to win most of your starts. He met or exceeded all of those goals/expectations.Personally, I think the Tigers should sign him until they get a fifth starter, either through trade, free agency or one of the guys from Toledo steps up into a starting role. If none of that happens, I say use him another year. If they get someone, trade him. For the price, where do you get 10 wins and 190 innings??
In any event, I graded him a “B” because he did what he was supposed to do. Just think what you would grade him with a 4.30 ERA and 15 wins. He was not far from that, just ran out of gas in the end. Maybe plan on that this year and start him a few less games in July, after Verlander heats up (remember, JV has always started slow, 2-3 into late May). That is all I have.
I'd rather have Phil Coke as our 5th starter.
Penny has talent, but it looked like he was just going through the motions and trying not to hurt himself again. If that was his max effort, then it just wasn’t good enough.
I think he was just thoroughly figured out by too many scouts and hitters.
Once it got to the point where hitters could predict what he wanted them to chase, they just laid off, worked him into hitters’ counts, and it was all over. I’d rather go with the team of young guys- Oliver, Wilk, Below, etc, but leave Turner in the minors another year.
"King of Minutiae"
I agree with you here
The only thing I’d rather do than leave it to the kids is sign a high risk / reward type guy to start the year. Sign somebody like Sheets, Harden, Bedard…etc. for the #5 spot. Give him a low contract (<3M) plus incentives based on IP. Chances are good that they’ll be injured by June, but if they can have a healthy season, we’ll be golden. If they make 10 starts and get injured (which is my bet), we’ve had a least a month or two to figure out which one of the kids is pitching the best and gives us the best chance to win (and I hope it’s Oliver or Crosby).
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
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