Tigers interested in Angels' Maicer Izturis: Report
by Kurt Mensching on Nov 29, 2011 10:08 PM EST
in Detroit Tigers rumors
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PrintJon Paul Morosi and Fox Sports are at it again. Morosi reports tonight that the Tigers have inquired about Angels infielder Maicer Izturis, who they hope could start in the infield and bat near the top of the order. I assume the switch-hitting 31-year-old would be targeted as a second baseman.
Morosi notes:
Izturis, a switch hitter, isn't known for his durability. This year marked the first time he has played more than 120 games in a major-league season. But that wouldn't necessarily be a huge issue in Detroit, where he could split time with the likes of Ryan Raburn, Brandon Inge and Don Kelly at the two positions.
Izturis batted .276 with a .334 OBP and .388 slugging average in 2011. He is a career .275 batter across either seasons with an OBP of .339.
Fielding-wise, Izturis appears to be above average at third base and shortstop, while the advanced stats have him a bit below average at second base. But sample size isn't big enough to have full confidence.
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Well that's great news
Maicer Izturis is one of the better Venezuelans on my recruit list. His defense would be a blessing to this team.
His defense at second base?
I’m reading that he was awful last year. Raburn-awful. No range whatsoever?
Justin can now let the fungus grow back on his shower shoes.
I think...
He’s not bad at defense:
Izturis: .989 fielding percentage career at second w/10 Errors
Raburn:.956 fielding percentage at 2nd w/ 18 Errors
And the sabermetric numbers back that up
He’s got a 5.0 career UZR at 2B, and he’s around that at both shortstop and third base.
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching
Contributor, Bless You Boys
by David Tokarz on Nov 29, 2011 10:55 PM EST up reply actions
He's fantastic at 3B.
and has excellent range at Shortstop. Playing 2B would only be easier. You just have to ignore the critics/sabermetrics sometimes.
by Keith-Allen on Nov 29, 2011 11:01 PM EST up reply actions
Yup
Means we might get him for cheap.
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching
Contributor, Bless You Boys
by David Tokarz on Nov 29, 2011 10:56 PM EST up reply actions
He may not be perfect
But he may be the best option available.
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching
Contributor, Bless You Boys
by David Tokarz on Nov 29, 2011 10:57 PM EST up reply actions
The Fielding Bible ranks Izturis worse than Raburn last year at 2B
Worst RZR in the AL and second fewest out of zone plays.
Justin can now let the fungus grow back on his shower shoes.
by Singledigit on Nov 29, 2011 11:01 PM EST up reply actions
Plus/Minus
Izturis had a 10 +/ at second base this year according to Baseball Info Solutions, meaning he made ten fewer plays than the average second baseman would have on similar batted balls. His rating was better than only Jamey Carrol, a -12.
sample size
The sample size wasn’t large enough to say anything about his range at second last year. The aggregate of the fielding stats over his career make him look about average. I think the biggest question is his durability.
caveat emptor
I’m not really a numbers guy, but I think Singledigit is on to something. If we treat MI’s RZR at 2b as a binomial random variable with a parameter p estimated by his observed 2011 RZR, then the standard deviation in his RZR for his balls-in-zone sample size is .033. If we add one sigma to his RZR he still falls in the lower half of AL second basemen in RZR. Also telling is that his RZR at 2b has fallen significantly since 2009 which is characteristic of middle infielders of a certain age. He’d work at 3b.
Certain pitchers induce poor defensive metrics
If you follow Dan Haren’s career, there is a drop in fielding metrics to some of his infielders (Mark Ellis and Stephen Drew to name a few). So every 5th game, maybe those guys are taking a beating on their UZR’s, RZR’s, and Fielding Bible’s +/-.
It makes plenty of sense too. Haren throws a lot of strikes and is a fly ball pitcher, that doesn’t depend much on his infielders. Most of his ground balls are probably unplayable because they are hit too hard.
I suspect that Jerred Weaver is probably the same way.
LAA
This didn’t appear to hold in 2011. Haren allowed a BABIP on groundballs of .196 and Weaver allowed a GB BABIP of .227. The LAA staff allowed a .214 BABIP on groundballs which was well below the AL average of .238.
Infield BABIP doesn't tell me much
It doesn’t have any zones or tell how hard the balls are hit. But I do get your point.
What it does say
Yes, it would be ideal to have a breakdown by trajectory/velocity, but the low groundball BABIP for Haren, Weaver, and the overall LAA staff says that the Angel pitchers, on average, were not allowing groundballs that were particularly difficult to field and/or the other Anaheim infielders were much better than Izturis at turning groundballs into outs. Now that Ramon is signed it looks like the interest in MI might be mainly for 3b.
OMG
If we treat MI’s RZR at 2b as a binomial random variable with a parameter p estimated by his observed 2011 RZR, then the standard deviation in his RZR for his balls-in-zone sample size is .033. If we add one sigma to his RZR he still falls in the lower half of AL second basemen in RZR.
You’re kidding, right?
Kidding?
No. Just trying to point out that the sample size does allow us to say something.
I loves me some GW.
Justin can now let the fungus grow back on his shower shoes.
i'm afraid to find out
but i’m picturing physicist style formulas on a blackboard.
by Kurt Mensching on Dec 1, 2011 10:25 AM EST up reply actions
he was kidding
just a different sentence
I’m not really a numbers guy
by redwingxviii on Nov 30, 2011 9:36 AM EST up reply actions
I've gotta disagree
The league average for 2nd basemen last year for RZR was .818. Izturis went 121/154, good for a .786 RZR. The probability of a league average fielder last year putting up equal or worse numbers in that many trials is 17.4%. This is certainly not statistically significant. And compounding this with Izturis’ record as a 2nd baseman (.831 RZR on his career), I’m not particularly worried about his fielding ability.
Agreed.
GW is cherry picking. Why would you estimate his probability of successfully fielding a ball using 154 observations when there are a few thousand more that suggest last year was an aberration? Your binomial pdf surely is well approximated by a normal over his career.
Agree with Lee, durability is the issue….not fielding.
it's not a stationary signal
The most recent observations are the most relevant especially for a 31-year-old middle infielder. You can do better by weighting his career numbers by an aging function, but the numbers suggest that there are likely some issues with his range at 2b.
The underlying dgp is fairly stationary until recently...
He’s only 31. Decline has just starting to set in and should be gradual for a couple of years. I could be wrong, but I have to imagine the data are generated by a process with a constant mean during the age 26-30 period, with an increasing mean prior to that.
Your point is valid, but you don’t go from being a solid, above average fielder at multiple positions and then lose it at age 31. His performance last year is most likely driven by a small bit of decline, perhaps playing through injury, and randomness. I would expect him to be above average for two more seasons.
it's that recently part that's a little worrisome
I recall a study on CamdenDepot that showed second basemen peak defensively between 26 and 28 and Tango had a study a few years ago that showed that shortstops peak no later than 28. But, as you say, the slope of the decline is typically much less than what we see with Izturis. Using the sample size statistics I generated last night puts the RZR drop from 2009 to 2011 at about 2.3 sigma if we attribute it all to randomness. This is certainly possible, but before MI is handed the 2b job I’d make sure the mean isn’t moving the wrong direction due to injury or a particularly bad aging profile. Anyway, I enjoyed the conversation and I appreciate you guys responding to a new poster.
I'm glad you joined in the fun at BYB- welcome!
I hope we can look forward to hearing from you often.
"King of Minutiae"
All right, so you know what sigma is and how to use it intelligently.
but will you be able to consistently spell “R-A-B-U-R-N”? I think the jury’s out on you until we find some real answers.
by lesmanalim on Dec 1, 2011 4:03 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Izturis/Santiago?
I see no difference in these two guys. Sign Santiago and make him the everyday 2nd baseman. Trade with Atlanta for Prado and let him play 3rd. Say sayonara to Inge once and for all
by BengalsNme on Nov 29, 2011 11:50 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
That's why you can't just watch the playoffs
The difference is about .010 of wOBA, about half a win in WAR, and that Santiago’s never had a full starter season (whereas Izturis has injury problems). At a reasonable price, Izturis is an upgrade at 2nd or 3rd.
+1
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching
Contributor, Bless You Boys
by David Tokarz on Nov 30, 2011 12:32 PM EST up reply actions
Izturis is okay if there are further trades.
Save your pennies and use Worth or Rhymes at 2B and use the money for a better player.
At least if we get Izturis
We can replace Guillen as the glass man of the Tigers. Izturis has averaged 97 games played per season over the past 6 years (6 young years, mind you). The only difference is we had already agreed paid Guillen so we kind of had to put it up with it. But Izturis? No thanks.
He was road blocked out of PT also
They have Kendrick at 2b, Aybar at SS, and Callaspo at 3B. In 2009, they had Figgins at 3B. Even if he was 100% healthy, he wouldn’t of had a full-time job.
I'm not an a saber guy.....
(I mean, my head almost exploded like that guy in Scanners reading GWilson’s post) but I live in Southern California and watch a lot of Angel baseball. I would LOVE to see Izturis on the Tigers. They have jacked him around his entire career playing him all around the infield, batting him everywhere, spot-starting him, etc. He always seemed to produce and has a penchant for clutch hitting. If he knew he was gonna be in the lineup everyday and playing one position, I think he would shine.
I endorse this move 100%.
"i think it will be mostly feast the rest of the year,"
Prado
Would still be my pick over anybody else.
I noticed that we signed Head to a minor-league deal. He hit like .275-25-70 in AAA last year… do you think that he could be shipped off in a deal for Prado, or do we like him enough to keep him?
Sure
…but only if we throw in Iorg
by Wolverine119 on Nov 30, 2011 11:58 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Don't forget Inge and Kelly.
Prime trade bait, there.
Drink, and Drink, and Drink, and Drink, and Drink, and Drink, and Fight!
by Brand New Hero on Nov 30, 2011 1:39 PM EST up reply actions
AAA filler
Nobody is interested in Head for MLB duty. He’s 29 years old and seems to have behavior issues. My guess is we were looking for somebody to bat in the middle of the ’Hens lineup and keep butts in the Toledo seats.
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
someone help me out here wasnt Izturis the guy that bunted on JV on the near nono
or am i confusing him for someone else?
Izturis is the guy that broke up the no-hitter
He hit that single to left field.
I like it
Maicer is a better option than anyone currently on the roster. If you bring in Maicer, who has never reached 500 PAs in a season, it is imperative to get someone like Kelly Johnson who can play 2B or 3B, rather than a pure 3B.
Dejesus
Signed w cubs…damm I wanted that guy in left…Andres Torres please
by Wolverine119 on Nov 30, 2011 1:23 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Glad to know you like the first Cubs move
thanks for the heads-up
I think this is a good idea overall. Santiago is a consistent player who won’t cost us too much money (and no prospects).
Good news.
A switch-hitting player who can field either middle infield position well is an asset. Throw in that “sneaky power” and he is too valuable to just let walk. The question is, did the Tigers promise him every-day playing time? I think the expectation was that he would be looking for a team that would use him as a regular, rather than the spot role he has generally played with the Tigers. I would be more than OK with him as the regular 2b. My only beef would be if they can’t get someone signed to play somewhere in the infield that can run. Izturis would fill that bill. Of course so would Jose Reyes, but I don’t think the Tigers would want to shell out nine figures for him.
by knucklescarbone on Nov 30, 2011 4:03 PM EST up reply actions
I think the "everyday playing time" dried up quickly
The signings of Hill, Ellis, Carroll, and Barmes removed most of Santiago’s opportunity around the league. After seeing those jobs filled, I think he realized that he’d be signing for a UT role anywhere and decided to stick with Detroit. I can’t imaging that DD would promise regular time (but he might end up with it anyhow because we still don’t have a 2B and Raburn doesn’t unpack his bat until the ASG.) If I’m Leyland, Santiago is on my opening day lineup right now. And for the money we paid Santiago when Worth is about as good, I’m guessing that we’re not optimistic about our chances of upgrading significantly.
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
I would be happy with Maicer at 2B or 3B.
He is fine defensively. His UZR/ 150 at second base is a plus 6.0 over the past three seasons, same as Santiago’s rating. Raburn is a minus 18.8, by far the worst in the league for a player with at least 500 innings. All we have on Maicer at 2B in 2011 is a small sample, and the numbers don’t match his three year splits or his career splits defensively. Raburn’s numbers are also small samples, but every indication is that he is consistently bad defensively at 2B, over any period of time including the minor leagues before he was moved to the outfield. If they really need to get Raburn’s bat into the lineup, sit Delmon or even AJax. His defense in the outfield isn’t that bad, despite some erratic moments.
"King of Minutiae"
Agree
A three year look @ uzr is much more accurate… I was hoping for a dejesus type in left that could slide over to center from time to time to get rayburn inn….completely agree w ur analysis of rayburns outfield defense..hes average w a plus arm…I would trade delmon for Andres Torres in a heartbeat
by Wolverine119 on Dec 1, 2011 10:16 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
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