Nick Castellanos on the Fast Track?
by Keith-Allen on Dec 13, 2011 11:46 PM EST
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PrintI've been trying to figure out the absolute earliest date that our 3B prospect Castellanos could be making his MLB debut. Based on how fast the Tigers brought up Alex Avila, who had just 151 minor league games under his belt, it has me thinking this crazy thought that it could be late in 2012. Is it possible that he'll be our starting 3B for the 2013 season? Would this be unprecedented? He'd only be 21 years old. I looked up some other players, mostly 3B's, that made their debut's at similar age.
1st lets take a look at :
Nick Castellanos, 19 years old, has played in 142 minor league games, has a .313 AVG, .369 OBP, and .805 OPS. At 3B in 132 games, he has made 25 errors, has a .912 Fld%, with a 1.95 Range Factor.
Miguel Cabrera, 3B/LF, debuted in majors at 20 years old on June 3, 2003. With just 69 AA games under his belt, he skipped AAA and went straight to the show. Well remembered for being the rookie that hit 3 Home Runs in 2003 NLCS vs the Cubs and the HR he hit off of Roger Clemens in game 4 of the World Series. Played in 368 minor league games, had a .286 AVG, .350 OBP, and .782 OPS. At 3B, played 161 games, made 31 errors, .934 FLD%, and 2.71 Range Factor. He wasn't a prospect watchers favorite because of his rather unimpressive numbers before AA.
Freddie Freeman, 1B, debuted in majors at 20 years old on September 1, 2010. Played 424 minor league games, and had a .301 AVG, .363 OBA, .835 OPS. Played a full-season at AAA, before getting a September call-up. One advantage that Freeman had is that he was 17 years old when he was drafted out of high school.
Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, debuted in majors at 20 years old on September 1, 2005, the same year he was drafted by the Nats. He played in just 67 minor league games at A and AA before being called up. Had a .326 AVG, .371 OBP, and .898 OPS. At 3B, in 59 games, he made 6 Errors, had a .964 Fld%, and 2.71 Range Factor. Excellent contact rates and solid defense, help make him be a polished product at this young age. Contact rate and defense are 2 things that Castellonos probably needs to improve upon while in the minors.
Adrian Beltre, 3B, debuted at 19 years old on June 24th, 1998. He had just 64 games in at AA when he made the jump to the majors. In the minors, he had played a total of 325 games, had a .306 AVG, .393 OBP, and .943 OPS. At 3b in 310 games, he made 80 errors, with a .912 Fld%, and 2.72 Range Factor. All those errors, who would of thought? Had some ridiculous range though.
Eric Chavez, 3B, debuted at 20 years old on Sept 8, 1998, after splitting a season at AA and AAA. He played a total of 267 minor league games, had .302 AVG, .358 OBP, and .885 OPS. At 3B, in 243 games, he had 53 errors, .927 Fld%, and 2.63 Range Factor.
So what does everyone think?
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Bless You Boys writing staff.
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Nice piece.
He’ll likely start this coming season in West Michigan but will end up in Lakeland quickly. If he has a monster year, maybe Double-A by seasons end. I think earliest would be late 2013, thats only if he stays healthy and keeps up his stats. I dont think we’ll see him starting at CoPa until 2015 though.
That's the most ideal track
With Inge and Kelly as our current 3B’s, I think Nick may be rushed and might skip a level or two. Even Maybin got called up when he was 20 years old. He was overwhelmed and got sent back down, but they still gave us a quick look at him.
by Keith-Allen on Dec 14, 2011 12:36 AM EST up reply actions
I don't know.
To me, if a guy only makes the major league club after 5 + years in the minors, it signifies either that he was blocked at his position (not the case here, for sure), or he is a marginal, AAAA-type talent (also, I believe, not the case here). If he’s got the talent we all seem to think he has, he should move up the minor league food chain much faster, and make his start at CoPa, much earlier than 2015. I’ll say he gets a look after Sept 2013, starts opening day 2014.
Keep in mind that he was drafted out of high school
What you’re saying is probably accurate for college draftees, even if they don’t finish their four years. However, don’t think you can expect any high school kid, regardless of talent, to become big-league ready after only a year or two. Heck, Bryce Harper is made of Babe Ruth DNA and fairy dust and he’s still facing the prospect of another year in the minors. Harper dominated A-ball pitching much more than Castellanos and earned a promotion to AA where he was really just an average player (but REALLY young for the league.) If I’m Washington, I’d much rather give him one more year to be successful in AA and/or AAA before bringing him up. If Harper is in the bigs this year, I doubt it will be a smash success. So, we’re looking at 2 years of development, minimum, for a player that was substantially better than Castellanos at A-ball.
These kids that are successful in the bigs at 20, 21 years old are once-in-a-generation type players. I’m fine with Castellanos being good at 22 or 23.
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
Castellanos is one of the better 19 year old 3B prospects I've seen
Over the last few days, I looked up just about every 3B prospects drafted out of high school since 1996. The one player that best compared to Castellanos was probably David Wright. Wright, at 21 years old, became the Mets regular 3B on July 21, 2004.
Can he play third base?
Has that been determined yet? I recall reading some reports that said his arm wasn’t up to the task. Don’t know how reliable they were.
That said, DD has no history of nuturing prospects. If the Tigers think Castellanos can help, even with large growing pains considered, he’ll be up. Looking at who the Tigers have at third base, it shouldn’t be long.
Justin can now let the fungus grow back on his shower shoes.
Saw him twice this past summer
v. the Lugnuts in Lansing. Extremely small sample size, but he didn’t look out of place in the field (though, in one game, he went 0-4 with two strikeouts). Certainly less out of place than Wilson B, though that’s sort of damning with faint praise, indeed.
Your point is right, though, in that I don’t think that DD will watch him hit 310+ at A – AA for long before he’ll be tempted to see if it translates to CoPa.
How was his arm strength throwing across the diamond?
Did it strike you as at least MLB ‘good-enough’?
Justin can now let the fungus grow back on his shower shoes.
Arm
I have season tickets to the whitecaps and can tell you he does NOT have a cannon but will be serviceable 3B in the very near future. His glove is not what makes him. The kid can hit and has good size, 6’4 I believe. Once he fills out a bit, I think this will translate into good power at the major league level. I would liken him to Troy Glaus.
The problem with winter sports is that - follow me closely here - they generally take place in winter.
I think "rushing" will depend on the skill set he's showing
Last year, he hit for average (but his BABIP was .402). He didn’t hit much for power with regard to HR, but had a good amount of doubles. He struck out 23% of the time.
The team will certainly need to ask some questions before promoting him to Detroit.
>Can he hit a big-league curve ball?
>Can he catch up to 98 on the gun?
>Does he have enough power or OBP skills to justify a 23% K-rate?
>Is he capable of defending at the MLB level?
I would guess that they need to answer YES to most of these questions before promoting Castellanos. My biggest concern right now is the K-rate. I have no idea why he struck out so often, but if it’s because he’s not recognizing or can’t hit secondary pitches at the A-ball level, he’s not close to being ready. If he’s digging himself holes and getting into pitcher’s counts, he needs more time.
I could actually handle the lack of HR power for now. That will probably develop whether he’s in the minors or majors. Developing position players is different than developing pitchers. Pitchers need to develop secondary pitches for the most part. They need confidence to throw them when it seems like they might be “pitching backwards” and they the ability to throw them for more than a casual looksie. Position players need to develop pitch recognition and the ability to hit secondary pitches. If Castellanos has both of these qualities, he could advance quickly. However, I’m in no hurry if the time down on the farm will help him.
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
Ask those same questions
To Inge or Don Kelly, and every 3B in the majors. I don’t think there are 20 3B’s in the majors that get a YES to most of those questions.
Agreed
But time in the minors could help Castellanos become a YES man.
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
One other thing to look at
Is that Castellanos got off to a terrible start. Here are his monthly splits:
April: .179 AVG /.222 OBP / .431 OPS in 67 AB
May: .303 AVG / .347 OBP / .825 OPS in 109 AB
June: .375 AVG / .406 OBP / .926 OPS in 96 AB
July: .318 AVG / .373 OBP / .850 OPS in 107 AB
Aug: .324 AVG / .407 OBP / .786 OPS in 108 AB
Sept: .400 AVG / .500 OBP / 1.150 OPS in 20 AB
Some say he got off to a terrible start because it was the 1st time that he ever experienced the cold weather here in Michigan. Once April past, he pretty much set the league on fire for the rest of the season. He was probably ready to jump up to A+ in Lakeland in July.
I was at one of those games and he looked like
a baseball player. I see the Lugnuts a few times a year. Class A baseball is fascinating because you get a mix of kids that won’t make it to double A and also future stars of the game. Castellanos along with the Lugnuts thirdbaseman (sorry name escapes me) were two guys that looked like they belonged on a baseball diamond.
I been going to Lugnuts games since the stadium opened and have been wrong before (Carlos Febles my pick for Lansing’s first Hall of Famer), but Castellanos really looks like the real thing. I believe he will start at Erie but could be in Toledo before July. If Inge goes down again, or if Donnie can’t handle more than 5 games in a row, I’m thinking he is with the big league club sooner than September.
If Dombrowski must trade a kid and having watched both Turner and Castellanos I say keep Nick over Jacob.
MJim,
the Lugnuts stadium (the ill-named Cooley Law School Stadium) is a great place to watch a game. Agree with you about Class A ball, and I especially love to take in the ‘Nuts v. West Michigan games, so I can see our upcoming prospects. I’m really looking forward to the 2012 season.
The fast track would be start the season in Lakeland and move to Erie in June
He’d have to show steady progress to do that, though. My vote was for being a Sept 2013 call up, but my opinion and four fifty will get you a small cup of coffee at Starbucks. I think that much depends on whether they bring in a good third baseman this winter. They’ll deny it, but need in Detroit is a big part of the equation.
"King of Minutiae"
Starbucks is overrated
I’m a fan of Caribou Coffee personally.
by Rob Rogacki on Dec 14, 2011 10:29 AM EST up reply actions
2013 would be incredibly aggressive
I have a feeling he spends most of this year in Lakeland.
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching
Contributor, Bless You Boys
Agreed. The FSL is a tough place to hit. too
so I wouldn’t be surprised if he struggles through the first month or two again. I don’t think mid season to Eerie is very likely.
I think a September 2013 call-up is the earliest we see him
I’d be perfectly fine with pushing that back a year though. No sense in rushing him with other options (read: Chase Headley) available this offseason.
One of the big differences between the way Avila was "rushed" and Nick
Is that Avila was a college players so he was further developed (in theory) than Nick was coming out of high school. When Avila made his debut for the Tigers he was 22 years old.
Nick isn’t even 20 years old yet. The end of 2013 would probably be the earliest you see him, and then only if he is hammering minor league pitching. 2014 would probably be more appropriate and even then it might not be until Sep call up in 2014 (he would still be just 22 years old).
There is just no reason to rush him to the majors at this point. He wouldn’t be better than our 3B platoon right now, let him develop and promote as the signs indicate he is ready. What’s the rush?
Plus, Avila is the classic example of a player that developed extremely quickly
especially at the catcher position. I doubt we’ll see another catcher progress like that again for a very long time.
"King of Minutiae"
Yup
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching
Contributor, Bless You Boys
by David Tokarz on Dec 14, 2011 2:14 PM EST up reply actions
A little bit off topic, but one thing Avila and Castellanos do have in common
Is that they both went to the same High School, Archbishop McCarthy.
When did Avila go there, he was at warren de la salle his freshman year
by syper17 on Dec 16, 2011 9:27 AM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
from his alabama profile
2005 graduate of Archbishop McCarthy High School in Pembroke Pines, Fla. … played for coach Tony Messaro at Archbishop McCarthy … played three seasons at Archbishop McCarthy (2002, 2004-05) and one season at DeLaSalle High School (2003) in Warren, Mich. … credited with the first home run in the history of Archbishop McCarthy High School … as a sophomore, he was an all-metro selection at DeLaSalle HS … as a junior at Archbishop McCarthy, he hit .342 with four home runs and 24 RBI .
http://www.rolltide.com/sports/m-basebl/mtt/avila_alex00.html
by Kurt Mensching on Dec 16, 2011 10:03 AM EST up reply actions
He would have been a top5 pick if it wasnt for his Miami commitment if he continues to hit which you guys know more about which leagues are toughest on hitters than me, DD has shown he isn’t afraid to put 20 year olds on big league rosters
by syper17 on Dec 14, 2011 11:15 AM EST via iPhone app reply actions
Different sort of situations though
A guy like Porcello was able to succeed because of his advanced makeup and refined sinker. Yet even then it’s difficult to say whether or not Detroit wrecked him by not giving him time to develop a strikeout pitch.
On the other hand, I think we can all agree that it was dumb to bring up Cameron Maybin at the age when we did.
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching
Contributor, Bless You Boys
by David Tokarz on Dec 14, 2011 2:15 PM EST up reply actions
On my other hand
You sometimes catch lightning in a bottle when you call up a farm fresh prospect. The kid might be so hell bent on proving himself, that it’s a shot in the arm to the rest of the team. It’s a genuine morale booster. I’d also like to watch the kid grow up and get his rookie mistakes out of the way. Rookie hazing is a part of the game too. You can tease them best when their 18, 19, 20 years old, before the legal drinking age.
What a mistake it would of been if we made Al Kaline spend 4 years in the minors. At 18 years old, he was drafted by the Tigers, and skipped the minors completely, and he never looked back.
Why not call the kid up early, give him a chance, and see what he does with it? If he fumbles and clearly isn’t ready, then send him back down for more seasoning. Giving him that taste of the major leagues is something that should motive him even more.
I would just rather bring up the premium talents because they've shown all they have to show at the minor league level
rather than because the big league club doesn’t have anyone on the roster to fill the position. I don’t believe in not signing players because they might “block” another player who is still more than a year away from being ready for showtime.
"King of Minutiae"
You've been waiting 50 years for us to get a 3B
Why wait any longer?
It's not giving up, it's just being mindful of the master plan
In order to succeed long-term financially and win championships at the same time, we need keep a constant flow of rookies onto the MLB roster. We should be breaking in about 1 or 2 rookies per year. Of those, some will fail, some will succeed. In order to maintain that flow, we’ll need to create some opportunities by letting some of the aging veterans leave the team (Pudge, Sheff, Polanco, Ordonez, Guillen, and hopefully someday Inge) .
Right now, we got 7 full-time position players in Cabrera, VMart, Boesch, Young, Avila, Peralta, and AJax. That only leaves us 2 spots to develop future starting players from within. Problem is we’ve been slow to develop positional player prospects to fill those spots. So we have some budget minded replacement level players, like Raburn, Santiago, Kelly, and Inge to fill that immediate void. Those guys are expendable until something better falls in our laps (like how Peralta did) or until we have a prospect that is ready to make the jump to majors. IMO, we’ll probably have a few positional prospects that can challenge for starting spots in 2013. But for 2012, we’ll audition a few rookie arms (Below, Wilk, Oliver, Turner, ect) on the pitching staff. So we do have a steady talent flow, it’s just pitching heavy right now.
We already have a payroll north of $100 Million. We need to be really smart with any future long-term contracts so that we can at least trade or eat that contract. We don’t want to be handcuffed with a contract like Carlos Guillen’s again. Our foundation to be a perennial World Series contender is pretty much set. We already got the impact players and role players on our current roster. We got some big time prospects in the pipeline also. There’s no giving up here.
by Keith-Allen on Dec 14, 2011 10:09 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t get why it would be giving up. Keeping him in the minors doesn’t guarantee his success and bringing him up next week doesn’t mean he will fail. Every player is different. U used maybin as a reference point earlier, it’s easy to say it was the wrong move in hindsight.. Were the nats wrong to rush Zimmerman, rays. With longo, dbacks with upton, cubs with Castro, or how about the Yankees with a minor league error machine named Derek jeter
by syper17 on Dec 15, 2011 12:29 AM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
They know his mental makeup better than us too kids thrive with the challenge (montero was said to be bored with AAA) while others need to go through some struggles at each level (royals third baseman who I don’t feel like looking up how to spell)
by syper17 on Dec 14, 2011 5:20 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
Wasn't Kaline a bonus baby?
At one point, the rules mandated certain just-signed players be kept on the mlb roster. It was tied to their receipt of a signing bonus. Back in those days, too, there was more room on mlb rosters, because they didn’t use as many pitchers.
I never knew what a bonus baby was before now, but you're right
He had to stay on the MLB roster for 2 years, before he could be sent down to the minors. Al Kaline was a great young player regardless and didn’t need to be sent down.
And even with porcello his advancement hindered the development of his secondary pitches I was more referring to maybin but we don’t really know if his call up slowed maybin down, he may have developed just as slowly in the minors. Was DD still with FLA when they brought up miggy?
by syper17 on Dec 14, 2011 5:17 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
I like the progress he's made so far
I’m not too concerned about the errors because the games faster than anything he’s seen before so given the current track he’s on now I can only see him getting better as long as he’s not rushed through the minors. If he impresses in West MI again then Lakeland should be reasonable and maybe a brief look in Erie to give him an idea of what to expect at the next level. I think that route will benefit the Tigers as well as Castellanos and prep him for the Double AA in 2013 with a September call up and look at 2014 as a realistic timeline for a regular starter. This way he’ll be 22 and his body can start filling out the way it should.
Take off your white wig, put down your gavel and stop judging...
Agreed
His power production wasn’t incredible last year, which is probably due to age. Give him some time.
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching
Contributor, Bless You Boys
by David Tokarz on Dec 14, 2011 2:16 PM EST up reply actions
Jealous
of the Tigers having Castellanos. He’s gonna be great one, and it looks like pretty damn soon.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 14, 2011 5:52 PM EST reply actions
Let's not get too carried away...
He’s what, maybe a BA #40ish prospect this year? I’m not complaining, but he’s doesn’t appear to be the second coming just yet. He does have a fair amount of potential, but potential is a lot different than actual production.
I would bet we see him fall 2013 for a cup of coffee with a full time, productive role by the start 2015.
Right
he isn’t the greatest thing since sliced bread, but I think he’s going to be an above-average regular at the minimum with a chance to be a fringe-all star for several years. Considering how hard that is, I’m pretty excited/jealous about Castellanos.
I’m going off objective data, but there is some subjective gut in there; I just like the kid and his potential as a player.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 15, 2011 4:20 PM EST up reply actions
The last highly thought of prospect nurtured by DD was ... ?
Yup.
If DD thinks Castellanos is good, he’ll be up and soon. I’d expect Nick to start in Lakeland, be in Erie before August, and in Detroit by Sept call-ups. Only way he won’t be in Detroit by the end of the season is if he completely fails in Erie.
DD has nothing against having his best prospects learn on the MLB job. Can’t imagine him changing that MO with Nick.
Justin can now let the fungus grow back on his shower shoes.
by Singledigit on Dec 14, 2011 6:08 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
I agree
Success in Erie is his ticket.
Back in 2002, Omar Infante was the last 20 year old infielder to get a September Call-up. Back then, Santiago and Infanti were going to be the next Whitaker and Trammell. Good times. :-)
Trammell got his MLB debut when he was 19 years old on September 9, 1977.
Whitaker got his MLB debut when he was 20 on the same day, September 9, 1977, which was a 2nd game of a double header.
Those were the days.
While I don't necessarily approve of promoting NC so early...
I definitely approve of recalling Whitaker’s excellence.
by SweetLouDoubleU on Dec 15, 2011 12:33 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
The voting results are quite interesting
39% are in 2012
49% are in 2013
Thanks everyone.
Here's some Castellanos video links
One-on-one with Nick Castellanos
Talks about his family in Michigan, about being drafted by the Tigers, and his Strikeout to Walk ratio. Working on some of those Bull Durham cliches’ too :-)
Nick Castellanos lives up to baseball billing
Nick talks about pressure and adapting.
Nick Castellanos Picked by Detroit Tigers in 2010 MLB Draft
Tribute to Nick. Shows him celebrating when it was announced that he was drafted by the Tigers. Has David Chadd
talks about him too.
I think this simple point might actually be more important than something like defense. If he can hit he’ll be here quicker than we think as long as they feel his body can handle the big league grind. Keep the kid in the weight room and cafeteria
by syper17 on Dec 16, 2011 9:30 AM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
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