Miguel Cabrera, 3-slot hitter: an over-simplistic number crunching.

Make no mistake: Miguel Cabrera is going to get on base. Whether he bats third, cleanup, or from the on-deck circle, there isn't a force in the 'verse keeping him from first with any hope of consistency; no one in the AL got on base more over the last two years. While we're talking about it, Miguel Cabrera is also going to mash - 30+ HRs in every pro season and top 3 in extra base hits the last 2 seasons running. Debating whether to hit him third or fourth is like deciding whether to have the bananas foster before or after the crème brûlée. It is a first-world problem.

But see, we're really bored.

Using Baseball Reference's team batting splits for last season, we can come up with all sorts of number sets from which to draw incomplete conclusions. The most concrete is the number of plate appearances: the 3-slot had 23 more than cleanup last year, good for about one more HR to bolster Miggy's triple crown chances. More PAs for Miggy beats fewer PAs, right?

Maybe not, if the scoring potential for those PAs is lower. Which it is. Scoring opportunities are higher with runners on base (duh), and having only 2 batters in front of Cabrera reduces the chances of having someone for Miggy to knock in. We can roughly calculate the chances for a 4-slot batter to start the game with at least one baserunner by calculating the probability of having *no* baserunners out of the first three batting slots:

NORUNNERS = (1 - B1OBP) * (1 - B2OBP) * (1 - B3OBP)

Then take the opposite of that probability:

YAYRUNNERS = 1 - NORUNNERS

We can also calculate the chances of baserunners for the 3-slot with the same method, using only the first two batting slot OBPs. (Yes, there are obvious problems with this formula. I told you, it was over-simplistic.) Based on the batting slot OBP numbers from Baseball Reference, here's what the rough 1st inning baserunner probability was for the Tigers last year:

3-SLOT: 53.8% chance of runner(s) on base
4-SLOT: 68.4% chance of runner(s) on base, Cabrera batting

If we instead take Cabrera's production at cleanup and move it to the 3-slot, we get this:

3-SLOT: 53.8% chance of runner(s) on base, Cabrera batting
4-SLOT: 74.5% chance of runner(s) on base, Victor batting

Miggy batting third starts without baserunners in roughly 14.6% more of the total games, while the 4-slot gets slightly more scoring potential for a less-productive bat in Martinez.

Of course, Victor also sees more PAs if everyone moves up one in the order, as would Peralta and Avlia. And there are loads of other considerations, as well. So which is better, batting Cabrera third, fourth, or somewhere else?

Beats me. I just toss out dubiously useful/accurate statistics. You tell me.