Joe Saunders does not interest me
by Kurt Mensching on Dec 16, 2011 1:02 PM EST
in Detroit Tigers Analysis
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Today, ESPN.com's Jim Bowden wrote on Twitter the Red Sox, Reds and Tigers were three teams pursuing pitcher Joe Saunders, who was recently non-tendered by the Arizona Diamondbacks. (It had also been said the Diamondbacks would like to re-sign the 30-year-old left-hander, though it sounds like that is not a real possibility.)
Like with many free agents, the question with Saunders isn't so much, "Do you want him or not?" It's more along the lines of, at what price do you want him and what price do you avoid him? For the Diamondbacks, the price to avoid him was the likely arbitration-set figure of $7 million plus for 2012.
Saunders seems like a prototypical back-of-the-rotation starter. In 2011 with the Diamondbacks, he looked even better than that, as he pitched 212 innings of 3.69 ERA ball. However, if you look deeper you find it to be a bit of a mirage. His strikeouts per nine innings were at record-low numbers (4.58), his strand-rate an unsustainable and career high 77.7%, his BABIP a low .271 and his xFIP 4.38. One thing you can say about him: At least he doesn't walk many batters (2.84 / 9 IP in 2011).
In 2011, his quality-start percentage was 61% -- the second highest it has been in his career. Normally Saunders' figure falls in the 40s. So thinking in terms of quality starts, he'd probably fall somewhere between Penny's 2011 (41%) and Porcello's (61%). Again, acceptable back-of-the-rotation arm.
For his career, Saunders has a 4.16 ERA and 4.58 xFIP. Looking over the trend of the recent seasons, and taking note the less-successful ones were all played in the American League, it seems reasonable to expect Saunders is a lot closer to being a true 4.40 ERA pitcher than a 3.69 one. The always-optimistic Bill James Online projections put him at 4.20 ERA / 4.58 FIP.
He could fit the Tigers needs. But at what cost? If you can pay him like the 5th starter he'll be, great. If he'd like to be paid better than that, I think you have to walk.
Saunders might actually find that being non-tendered was a good thing for his wallet. With several teams said to be interested -- like I mentioned in the first paragraph, the Red Sox among them -- he will almost certainly sign a contract worth more than $7 million total. It would not be outlandish to expect his agent to be looking for a two- or three-year deal worth in the $12 to $18 million range (depending on years).
However, his value is probably less. I suppose I could accept the Tigers signing him for a one-year deal worth $6 to $7 million. But if he wants more than that, I think looking for a lower cost alternative knowing you have several interesting young pitchers in hand would be a better move for Detroit.
So I ask you: At what price is Saunders a good deal for Detroit?
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I'm not a fan of signing Saunders. I think I'd rather stick with Turner as #5.
I don’t really think the Tigers need a lefty starter that badly either.
by ivantopumpyouup on Dec 16, 2011 1:06 PM EST reply actions
You can't say it any better than that
Isn’t Turner making over 1m to pitch in the minors? May the best man win out of Sring Training. I would give Saunders 4m over one year and that it.
Penny deal
$3MM base and another $3MM in incentives. Doubt Saunders would settle for that, but that’s what I’d hope DD offers.
Justin can now let the fungus grow back on his shower shoes.
Well, but if Arizona nontendered him rather than pay him $7 million on a one-year contract . . .
. . . you’d think 1 year at $3 million plus $3 million in incentives would be just about as good as it’s going to get for him. 3 years at $18 million would be absurd.
he's been a 1-2 WAR player every year
that’s going to come in at the price range I set, especially with several teams pursuing him.
by Kurt Mensching on Dec 16, 2011 2:08 PM EST up reply actions
It's just me, I guess...
But I think Saunders might actually be passable pitching in Comerica. His secondary stats are a bit strange, and his 2011 may have been smoke and mirrors, but I think it’s impressive anyway considering the bandbox of the BOB.
I agree on Saunders
If he wants to play on a contending team he can with Detroit for 2 years @ $10M tops. Kenny Rogers type who’d benefit from coming back to the AL. He was tough on the Tigers when he pitched for the Angels. I’d also see him as a trade-chip if Smyly or Turner or Andy Oliver suddenly get dominant at Toledo. They are the future but I’m gettin long in the tooth and I want another title THIS SEASON not down the road.
Lefty Who Throws Strikes
I’ve always liked this guy, back to when he came up through the Angels organization. Stuff wouldn’t wow anyone, but he’s a confident guy who throws strikes–I really think he could help us win. He’ll be an upgrade to Penny’s number, probably somewhere in the 4.10-4.40 range. And, being a lefty doesn’t hurt, as all the contenders in the AL have a lot of left-handed hitters. I’d give him $6-7 mil for one year, with some incentives and a club option, just in case our young guns aren’t maturing accordingly or we use them in a trade.
I'd take him for 5M
But all the damn reliability in the rotation would almost insure that we wouldn’t get to see Turner, Oliver, Smyly, or Crosby this summer. In a way, I’d be really disappointed to lock into his 200IP knowing that our prospects were doomed for Toledo all season and I’d just be watching Saunder’s acceptable mediocrity every 5th day.
I’d much rather have Harden for 2M and feel confident that I’d get to see a prospect in Detroit by June 1.
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
if the price is right
take him. We need a LH starting pitcher for the rotation.
Those are good peripheral numbers for a 5th starter.
Far better than what we had going in that spot in 2011, at least. For a year at $7MM and another year of Turner developing and not getting service time, I’d sign him.
1 year..4 mil
However..hes going to get 2 years 10-12 mil I would guess….im sure Jim Leyland is telling Dombrowski about his era right now
by Wolverine119 on Dec 16, 2011 5:52 PM EST via mobile reply actions
I'd like to see the young arms get a chance in the 5th spot
Starting pitching is our farm system’s greatest strength. So how else are we going to know what the kids on the 40 man roster can do. So Below, Wilk, Oliver, Turner, or maybe even Crosby (because he’s already on the 40 man roster) should get a chance.
Joe Saunders might actually do well for us, but only if we clear a spot for him, like by trading Porcello for a good 3B.
As anxious as I am to see the young guys on the field...
I don’t think it the best use of their cheap years. Assuming a Saunders-like option is about as useful as Turner, I’d rather let the prospects develop for at least another half season so that their pre-arb years are more likely to be productive rather than a work in progress.
It’s possible that Porcello will be a free agent before he’s even a finished product.
A player can only improve or develop so much in AAA
The minor leagues can even become counter-productive, if it’s not challenging enough. If a prospect is putting up All-Star numbers in the minors, it tells me that player has nothing else to prove and needs to be promoted to the next level. If Jacob Turner continues to dominate and sustains that ridiculous 7:1 K:BB ratio in AAA, then we need to get him up to the majors ASAP. Below and Wilk don’t have much to prove either. Spring Training is a good time to give these guys a chance to win that 5th rotation spot. They’ve earned that much.
There is a point in time when you either have to promote a player or trade them. Only in the majors, they’ll learn to get MLB hitters out.
No problem with Saunders in the five hole
Might be better than Kid Rick has been at times also
12 mil for 3 yrs, no prob
15 for 3 yrs, okay
18? How about 2 years?
"King of Minutiae"
If he wants 18M for 3 years, forget it and negotiate for 2.
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
Yeah, this ^
If Saunders wants six mil per year, I’d consider it on a two year deal, but probably not three.
"King of Minutiae"
Not a fan either..
I’ve been wondering why we don’t go after Edwin Jackson
Chicks dig me, because I rarely wear underwear and when I do it's usually something unusual
He's one of those twitter guys
Seems like we got rid of a few players that became part of the social media scene. Casper Wells and WIll Rhymes were on twitter. Granderson had that blog on ESPN.
Ian Casselberry wrote about this recently on MLIVE Better watch out: Detroit Tigers might have a Twitter curse
While we're on the topic of middling LH starters
I’d rather the Tigers go after Paul Maholm
"I'm a simple man. I like pretty, dark-haired women and breakfast food" - Ron Swanson
I read somewhere
he was in serious talks, or already signed, with someone.. I want to say it was the Cubs
Chicks dig me, because I rarely wear underwear and when I do it's usually something unusual
well Pujols was in talks with other teams when the Angels swooped in
Are you reading this DD? Be the Mystery Team!
"I'm a simple man. I like pretty, dark-haired women and breakfast food" - Ron Swanson
by rock n rye on Dec 17, 2011 11:02 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Beltran
I wouldn’t be suprised if det. Was one of the two “mystery” teams … I would see det. Going after him of Miami lands Cespedes.. He was an absolute monster @ the plate last year in two pitchers parks & raburn could spell him enough to keep his legs fresh
by Wolverine119 on Dec 17, 2011 1:18 AM EST via mobile reply actions
i don't think saunders or maholm are super exciting
but when i see that it takes alonso, grandal, volquez, etc. to get mat latos- i say sign a scrubby pitcher. i’m all for giving value to get value, but holy cow that’s a lot to give up for one really good pitcher. (at least right now it sounds like the reds only got latos. if the pads threw in another player, say the caliber of david pauley, everything changes.)
Huge haul
Good lord that was alot to give up…even the fourth guy …Boxburger has got a good chance to be a late inning reliever
by Wolverine119 on Dec 17, 2011 2:02 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
yeah wow
it is just latos the reds got. again, latos is really good. however, this seems like one of those deals where before it is made, if you heard “yeah the padres would trade latos, but it would take alonso, grandal, volquez, and boxberger”, you’d here all the reds fan base say thanks but no thanks. kind of like gio for turner, castellanos, and smyly. maybe beane isn’t aiming too high after all.
by atlantatiger on Dec 17, 2011 2:50 PM EST up reply actions
More Desperate
Thats just an insane amount..if I were a reds fan id rather trade Votto for a young ace plus… Just because you have 2 elite catching prospects doesnt mean you give one away… If Maybin & Miller gets ya Willis & Cabrera…in a time when prospects are more valuable..id have wanted Latos & Headley for Castellanos ,Turner, & Smyly
by Wolverine119 on Dec 17, 2011 5:08 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
It's very, very rare when the promise of a prospect is fulfilled
Sure……….every now’n then some team truly gets a “nice haul” from trading an excellent MLBer.
But without any empirical data handy, I’d bet the team trading the All-Star for a “haul” gets swindled most of the time. “Can’t miss” prospects like Justin Smoak … miss.
Reminds me of the “haul” the Twins got for Johann. So many thought the Twins did the right thing. Then soon enough, the Twins are blown out of every playoff appearance in the first round because they don’t have at least one dominant pitcher. And the “haul” they got for him? I think they are selling Kenmore’s.
Besides, this is the Padre Org here. Even if one or two of the kids they traded for today ends up being any good, they’ll sell them off for another “haul.”
Justin can now let the fungus grow back on his shower shoes.
i agree with much of your premise
and i’m not trying to be too annoying, but i remember when santana was traded the general sentiment was “that’s all they got?” most were not that impressed. this trade has people talking herschel walker magnitude. (and not just jim bowden)
by atlantatiger on Dec 17, 2011 9:52 PM EST up reply actions
Herschel Walker magnitude?
The Padres got an old prospect who doesn’t have a position. The only position he might be able to play(1B), is the same position that is played by one of the centerpieces of the last “haul” they got(for Adrian Gonzalez). Alonso or Rizzo … who will be the first to fail?
Then, the Padres got a pitcher who had a fine season back in ‘09. Since then, he’s been a whole lotta hurt.
They got a reliever, who was the 10th best prospect in the Reds system. No offense, but no MiLB reliever should be considered part of any “haul”.
Finally, they got a MiLB starter who might come up to the standard Latos has already set.
These deals … I dunno. So many celebrate the “haul” of prospects, and never revisit the trade years later. A team would be much better served hanging on to its young All_Star caliber talent. I can understand if the player traded is either in line for over $100MM, or if the player is over 32 years old. Latos was neither fo these. There was no reason to let him go for a bunch of prospects will most likely soon be forgotten, but some are also redundant.
Justin can now let the fungus grow back on his shower shoes.
by Singledigit on Dec 17, 2011 10:04 PM EST up reply actions
you're forgetting latos is a douche
they traded a douchey #2 for their starting 1st baseman, starting catcher, set up man or closer, and a #3 or #4, depending on health. again, i wasn’t disagreeing with your premise, so relax. i understand that prospects are oftentimes very overvalued at the expense of proven talent. and i didn’t say herschel walker, people way smarter than me did. it still just seems like a lot to me, and maybe further evidence that gio gonzalez will not be a tiger.
by atlantatiger on Dec 17, 2011 10:46 PM EST up reply actions
That was a very good trade
Alonso is a good 1B prospect, and they landed a starting catcher, a guy who has the stuff to be a good SP if he’s healthy and a good reliever.
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching
Contributor, Bless You Boys
by David Tokarz on Dec 18, 2011 12:26 AM EST up reply actions
The reds gave up a lot
But they were expendable—valuable, but expendable considering 2 of the players traded gve their positions blocked for, what seems to be, years to come.
The trade didn’t really make sense on the padres side, other than gaining a slew of valuable talent. They didn’t really fill any gaps, but you can’t really say the return wasn’t excellent. As far as the reds side, this trade should put them over the top and what is a wide open NL central. The trade was good for both sides: The reds overplayed with talent because the they didn’t have what the padres needed, and the padres gave up an ace for a boatload of talent that I am sure, they will just flip for the pieces they really want.
Tired of generic music??? Exterminate All Rational Thought is here to help!
I like the trade for both clubs
I didn’t like it from the Pods’ end at first, but after going over the scouting reports, they got quite a haul. As long as they have some sort of a plan to get a winner on the field in a couple of years- which is totally doable in that division- they’ll be okay. Voloquez may be able to replace most of what they got from Latos if he can get some consistency.
"King of Minutiae"
It didn't make sense for the Pads except for the slew of talent they got back?
:)
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching
Contributor, Bless You Boys
by David Tokarz on Dec 18, 2011 11:21 PM EST up reply actions
I think it was
a great trade for both sides.
The Reds get the legitimate ace they wanted.. Latos is barely 24 and has the stuff to be really, really good.
As others have said, Alonso and Grandal were valuable – but expendable. The Reds played their cards very well. This is how a deal should be done.
Chicks dig me, because I rarely wear underwear and when I do it's usually something unusual
For me
His only redeeming quality is that he throws lrft-handed. Pass.
by ChrisDTX on Dec 17, 2011 2:38 PM EST via mobile reply actions
I would rather
Suffer through a season(or half) of Saunders than watch tem gut the farm and get seine like Gio. If it means they have to overpay Saunders to all high heavens, I don’t care as long as turner stays in a tigers uniform.
Overpay on a one year contract to save your farm, would be my opinion. Just keep turned at all costs.
Tired of generic music??? Exterminate All Rational Thought is here to help!
Would you look at that!
Some guy with 3rd grade grammar posted under my name…
Tired of generic music??? Exterminate All Rational Thought is here to help!
I've seen worse.
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching
Contributor, Bless You Boys
by David Tokarz on Dec 18, 2011 12:26 AM EST up reply actions
Saunders would be a waste of money
There are 2 seasons each year for top-tier teams: regular and playoffs.
For the first season you need to make sure your team is good enough to reach the playoffs. 5th starters are important for this purpose….but how badly are the Tigers hurting here? We have enough young arms that will be sufficiently ready to fill the 5th starter role. Adding a guy who will make 5,6,7 or more MILLION dollars per years will do little to guarantee our making the playoffs.
The second, playoff season, has little to (nearly) no need for a 5th starter. If, however, you have holes with bats or gloves they tend to kill you come playoff time.
Bottom line for me is this: the Tigers play in a weak division and can probably repeat as champs with the pitching staff as is plus a guy from the minors. We have holes with bats and gloves that will keep us from going to the WS if we don’t fill them. Please DD, spend your remaining money there and not on a 5th starter.
This is good logic
I like it. When you explain it that way, it really does seem like a waste of money.
Looks like the Twins have lost Kubel as well. Initially, I liked the way their off-season was going with the minor, yet important signings of Doumit and Carroll. Lately, losing Cuddyer and Kubel makes them seem lackluster all over again. With the ChiSox gutting and Cleveland, well…being Cleveland, will the Royals be our biggest hurdle to the post-season?
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
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