Winter Meetings: Reviewing the Granderson Trade- Two Years Later
by Tigerdog1 on Dec 3, 2011 12:00 AM EST
in Detroit Tigers Analysis
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The Trade: The news rocked Tiger fans like an 8.5 earthquake. December 10, 2009; Curtis Granderson, the most popular Tiger, had been traded to the Yankees. The mere thought of him in pinstripes made Tiger fans shudder. Along with Granderson, the Tigers traded All Star pitcher Edwin Jackson, in a three way trade that brought back four players; Yankees' outfield prospect Austin Jackson, reliever Phil Coke, relief pitching prospect Dan Schlereth, and starting pitcher Max Scherzer.
We didn’t like it, but we were told that it had to be done. Dave Dombrowski said that adjustments had to be made, and that was the time to do it. Jason Beck reported Dombrwoski's explanation for the big trade.
"The reality is, no matter what, we needed to make some adjustments," Dombrowski said. "In almost any scenario, it’s a necessity. But it’s also one of those where we’re in a very good situation with a quality owner that projects to have a really solid payroll as we go forward. But at some point, adjustments needed to be made, and this was the time to do it for us."
Part of the necessity, while the Tigers won’t talk about it, comes from the Michigan economy. But the other impetus, which Dombrowski admits, came from a huge payroll over the last two years and contracts that have weighed down the organization.
Some reports have said that this trade has been a win- win- win for all three clubs. The Yankees got an MVP candidate in Granderson. Arizona got a Cy Young candidate in Ian Kennedy, and they managed to trade Edwin to the White Sox for another young star pitcher in Daniel Hudson. Those two helped lead Kurt Gibson’s D’backs to a division title in just their second year, and they will have them for several more seasons. But for the Tigers, was this trade a success? Not on the field thus far, in my opinion. Austin Jackson does not begin to replace Granderson. Scherzer has been about the equal of Edwin Jackson since the trade. Phil Coke has found his niche as a set up man in the bullpen, and Dan Schlereth probably belongs in Toledo until someone shows him how to find the plate.
But for the Tigers, this trade was never about improving the team on the field in the short term. Both Jim Leyland and Dave Dombrowski came right out and told us that Austin Jackson was not going to be able to replace the loss of Granderson, just as they told us that Scott Sizemore wasn’t going to be able to replace Placido Polanco at second base. No, it wasn’t about getting better players in this trade, and the Tigers didn’t. The big trade, like other moves that winter, was all about the money. Follow the money and you shall find the truth.
The Reality: While reasonable fans may differ as to the wisdom of this trade, or as to the value of each player involved, there is no denying the financial reality in which the deal was made. The Tigers had just missed the playoffs after losing to the Twins in the twelfth inning of game 163. In the process, they had allowed an $18 million option on Magglio Ordonez to vest for the following season.They had some $75 million in "bad contracts" on the books- contracts that no other club would take, even if they were offered the player for free. Payroll was maxed out. Furthermore, payroll was scheduled to increase even further the following season, even if the Tigers allowed all of their free agents to walk away, and replace them with minor leaguers. One year earlier, the Tigers had the second highest payroll in the game, and actually paid a "luxury tax" for what turned out to be a last place team. Dave Dombrowski had signed himself into a corner. A financial straight jacket, of sorts. He had to find an escape, and he did.
The Great Escape: The free agent players were Polanco, relievers Fernando Rodney and Brandon Lyon, and shortstop Adam Everett. If the Tigers were going to go outside the organization to replace any of these players, or if they were going to bring any of them back, they either had to boost payroll even higher, or they had to clear some payroll off the books. With an economy in Michigan that was at it’s worst since the great depression, and having missed the playoffs and the bundle of revenue that would have come with it, Dombrowski chose the latter course. Detroit had four players that made any money worth speaking of that were worth their salaries. Miguel Cabrera, Justin Verlander, Curtis Granderson, and Edwin Jackson. When you look at it in those terms, there’s wasn’t much of a choice. Verlander was signed to a five year extension. Cabrera, who was battling an image crisis due to alcohol related troubles at the end of the season, was kept. The Tigers would build their future around those two players. The other two, Edwin and Curtis, were traded to give Dombrowski some wiggle room to make other moves.
Trading Edwin Jackson was a no brainer, in my opinion. He had an agent in Scott Boras who is hell bent on taking each of his clients to the free agent market, where he can wage a bidding war for their services and get them the maximum number of dollars for the greatest number of years. In Scherzer, the Tigers were getting five years of a pitcher with about equal talent, but four more seasons of "club control", and he’d save them a few million in the upcoming season. Edwin was also pretty awful, posting an ERA of 5.07 after the All Star break, and he was one reason that the Tigers were unable to seal the division title down the stretch. The Tigers could "sell high" on Edwin, the All Star 13 game winner with the 3.62 ERA for the season.
Trading Curtis Granderson was not easy, and the wisdom of doing so can still be questioned. Sure, Curtis had his struggles, both at the plate and in the field. There wasn’t a poorer hitter in the league against left handed pitching in 2009 (.183 .245 .239 .484). He didn’t belong in the lineup, never mind leading off against lefties. But he had hit lefties in the past. Maybe this was on Lloyd McLendon? My thoughts one year after the trade, after a strong rookie season from Austin Jackson and a dominating second half from Max Scherzer, was that Dombrowski did the best that he could do with a bad situation, albeit a situation that he created.
Back to the point of this whole deal. Money. This trade was the big move, but there were other smaller moves that Dombrowski made in the dark winter following the 2009 season. Marcus Thames and Matt Treanor were released, making room to bring back Adam Everett on the cheap, for $ 1.5 million. Rodney and Lyon were offered contracts, and offered arbitration, knowing full well that they’d decline and sign longer term contracts elsewhere. In a rare boost for Dombrowski playing the arbitration game, this netted the Tigers two supplemental draft picks (later used to draft Nick Castellanos and Chance Ruffin- who was traded to Seattle in the Doug Fister trade). They let Polanco go without so much as an offer of arbitration, and installed Sizemore at second base. That was the one vacancy created by free agency that was filled internally. (It didn’t work, either, but that’s another story).
The Comeback: Once the trade had been completed, the comeback started. While the big trade was not about immediately improving the team’s talent on the field, nor was it a fire sale, as some in the media had suggested. On the contrary. It was about money, as in being able to spend money. As Tiger fans awaited the news that they had signed a new closer on the cheap, maybe a Kevin Gregg for a couple million bucks, they landed the best closer on the market. After three consecutive winters without signing a single free agent player to a multi year contract, Jose Valverde was signed for two years plus an option year, at about a 30 per cent discount. Next, Dombrowski signed Johnny Damon for one year, and $ 8 million, as insurance in the event that Jackson didn’t work out as a lead off man, and as a capable No 2 hitter at least. Things began to come together.
The Tigers were just able to tread water for one more season, finishing .500 with a payroll above $ 120 million in 2010. But they got through it, and they had some $ 72 million in contracts expiring after the season. The totals on the bad contracts were staggering, and all of them were contract extensions, given to existing players at the time. Carlos Guillen, Ordonez, Jeremy Bonderman, Nate Robertson, Dontrelle Willis, and Brandon Inge. A year earlier, they had shed Kenny Rogers, Todd Jones, and Gary Sheffield, who were all injured and unproductive before their contracts expired. Now, for the first time in several years, Dave Dombrowski had plenty of room on the payroll to go after free agents, and he wasted no time doing so, bringing in Joaquin Benoit, and Victor Martinez. He didn’t entirely avoid the old habit of giving out extensions- signing Inge and Jhonny Peralta for two years apiece, but the approach was much more balanced than it had been during the three years when the term "free agent" was treated like the "f" word in Detroit.
This story does have a happy ending, as we know. The new, old approach paid immediate dividends, with the Tigers’ first division title in a quarter century. The Tigers won the AL Central by 15 games. In July, the Tigers were able to make moves at the trade deadline while their division rivals, theTwins and White Sox were unloading salaries. The Tigers now have a payroll with room to spend, while the White Sox and Twins are still strapped for cash, and while the Indians and Royals have limited resources. The division is still Detroit’s to lose.
Looking back on the Granderson trade, one can still make the argument that the Tigers didn’t need to trade Curtis. They could have traded Edwin Jackson and gotten about the equivalent of Max Scherzer. After all, Edwin was since traded twice, for Daniel Hudson and for Colby Rasmus. But if they had not traded Granderson, they probably could not have signed Valverde, or Damon. Maybe I’m just like Fonzie on Happy Days, looking in the mirror, but I still don’t like that trade. Tiger fans can salivate just thinking of Granderson in the current lineup in place of Austin Jackson, and I, for one, would unwind that trade in a New York minute. Would you?
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I can't put my finger on why,
But I didn’t mind the trade then, and I’m still ok with it. No stats to back up my opinion or anything, just a feeling. Really good article, good explanation of the reasoning that went into the move. I will say that it kind of surprised me that after explaining why it almost had to happen, you say you would take it back. Out of curiosity, is there something else you think could have been done to net similar results? Again, great write-up, and it still kind of amazes me that this particular trade generates so much discussion. What move prior to this one had that effect I wonder.
I'd have kept Granderson
traded Edwin for Max or a similar return, and gone cheaper with the closer position. I can’t say that I know it would have worked out better. DD always has placed a high priority on closers. Of the relatively few free agents that he signed over his tenure with the Tigers, among them were Urbina, Todd Jones twice, Lyon, Percival, and Valverde.
Either way, we’re back on track, with room to maneuver. I don’t think we’re stronger in the outfield, we haven’t got a lead off hitter, nor a second baseman, but Coke is an asset once they got him back to the pen, and Max is with us while Boras has taken Edwin to market. I will say that I’m much more comfortable with the whole deal now, than I was at the time.
"King of Minutiae"
I don't think we would have fixed Curtis
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching
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by David Tokarz on Dec 3, 2011 12:57 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
Gotta disagree
He isn’t “fixed”. Sure he found power, but we knew he had it and he benefitted greatly from a stout yankees lineup; but he still was a .260 hitter and struck out 169 times. Other than his power numbers and run scored, which I will contend are a product of the lineup he is in and the ballpark, he really didn’t have that much better of a year than normal. Sure he had some gaudy power numbers; HR’s went up 2B, and 3B we’re down, and his OBP was slightly better than average. All his RBI’S and run scored tell me is that his teammates were on base and they also drove him home. Those stats don’t tell me he was any better this year than years in Detroit. He didn’t hit any better; he just hit a few more harder than usual. You take him and put him in any other lineup and his numbers were really no different than when he was in a Tigers uniform.
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Curtis' new home
HR’s went up 2B, and 3B were down
I wonder if this is more an indicator of Yankee Stadium than anything else. His speed and Comerica’s size translate to XBH stretched to triples. His power, in NY, gets him over the fence.
When the trade was made I thought DD had sold high on Granderson. But I do think that Curtis has benefited from some of the coaching at NY (who knows for sure).
Jackson is a great defensive player (probably better than Granderson). Both players strike out too much, but if they weren’t put at leadoff that wouldn’t hurt so much (so that’s a managerial issue). Curtis had a breakout year in 2011. Maybe it’s repeatable, maybe it isn’t.
Just looking at WAR then Jackson is at a higher value earlier in his career than Jackson was (though 2011 was huge for CG). So maybe Jackson has more upside? Who knows.
Bottom line? I think it’s too early in Jackson’s career to know if this was a good trade or not. He’s now entering his 3rd MLB season. Let’s withhold judgement and see how he does.
BTW: great post!
Those who forget the past are condemned to repeat it.
as requsted..
Jackson WAR:
2010 4.1
2011 2.8
Granderson WAR:
2005 1.1
2006 4.0
Those who forget the past are condemned to repeat it.
Re: Gloves
Jackson is a far better defender than Curtis Granderson.
He’s got really poor instincts and only makes plays because he can push himself physically. Once his legs start to go, it’ll be a steep decline.
Thats my biggest point as to regarding the trade a success
Comerica is freaking huge. If Ajax bounces back and has a .260-.270 season, the he’d be the same hitter as Grandy(minus the power, but Jackson is showing some more) and he’s twice the glove in an outfield that is so spacious, that an elite CF becomes a neccassity. Jackson is infinitely better in center and has twice the arm.
Jackson is a much better fit for Detroit than Granderson was.
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I've read that the Yankees saw a flaw in his swing, and helped him correct it.
Maybe the Tigers would’ve helped Grandy figure this out, or he would’ve figured it out on his own, but it’s also possible that it wouldn’t have happened without his changing teams.
He also mashes the hell out of lefties now
And I don’t buy for a second that all his power is park-based.
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
"I think of you more as the blue book style essay of sports journalism."-Kurt Mensching
Contributor, Bless You Boys
going to the tater tracker site or whatever it's called
might be able to help a bit on that debate, although I guess some people would then shout “wind aided” or something about yankee stadium.
by Kurt Mensching on Dec 4, 2011 7:04 PM EST up reply actions
I'm with you, David
he would never have found his stroke had he stayed here. The move to NY did him well.
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Great peice TD1
Good read. Thanks for the continued offseason diligence.
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We got younger too
Austin nearly won Rookie of the Year. He made me forget about Granderson very quickly. AJax is still just 24 years old. At that age Granderson was still in the minors for the most part. Grandy didn’t become our regular CF until 2006, when he was 25 years old.
Looking back to Spring Training 2006, I was expecting Nook Logan to be our CF, but Granderson ended up winning the job. Granderson’s rookie year was highlight with 174 strikeouts. The strikeouts was what most people talked about. He hit just .260 with a .335 OBP. The expectations still weren’t very high.
In 2007, Granderson was 26 years old. Somehow he broke out in huge way. He put up numbers that we couldn’t imagine. 23 Triples, 23 Homers, 26 SB’s, 38 Doubles, 122 runs scored, a .302 AVG and .363 OBP. What if AJax does something like this when he’s 26 years old? We still have to wait a few years. But guess what, Delmon Young will be 26 next season, perhaps he’s the one that will have a big year.
Granderson stunk last year, so the trade helped us in 2010. This year, Granderson bounced back and was very productive. As of right now, I think the trade is a wash. So the jury is still out. Granderson will be 31 years old next year, and that kind of scares me away from him. There is still plenty of time for AJax, Scherzer, Schlereth, and Coke to make this trade a victory for us. We got youth on our side.
Exactly
we had to make the necessary moves to get younger as a team, and this trade did that. Granderson will start to decline soon and AJax, as you said, is still very, very young and could easily become every bit as good as Granderson (minus the power).
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I dont mind the trade....
Particularly because Sherzer has been better than most fans believed he would be and I see another good year coming up.
President of the "Bring back Neifi Perez" fan club.
The return from Scherzer is always going to be mixed...
He allows him self just as much room for success as he does for error. He’s lucky enough in his raw talent level where he can throw a few OK games in his mixture of everything. But between Verlander, Fister, Scherzer, and Porcello this rotation has plenty of potential, especially is Scherzer or Porcello manages to step it up for a full season.
Provided that the right lineup moves are made, we’re going to have another fun season to watch.
Dback won the trade so far, Great Article
Pitching trumps hitting and the DBacks got two good pitchers out of the deal. I would put Tigers ahead of the Yanks because 4 roster players trumps one. CG did not have a great 2010 year. Remember this trade because in a few years Tigers will have to make decisions on Avila, Boesch, Max, Fister ect. I still not afraid to sign Reyes to a six year deal because in the next few years we have the option to make more trades.
I’m not a saber metrics guy so can someone who is tell me what the combined war is of the players traded? Who won in terms of war over the lady 2 years
by syper17 on Dec 3, 2011 8:29 AM EST via iPhone app reply actions
Total WAR
Detroit: 6.9 + 6.5 + 3 +-.2 = 16.2
New York: 10.5 = 10.5
Arizona: 7.5 + 6.9 + 1.8 = 16.2
Wierd that they are the same, damn you Schlereth, although I may be forgetting someone. Jackson for Hudson was 1 for 1 right?
I think it is probably bad form to use WAR this way, comparing pitcher and hitter WAR is not apples to apples.
Also the increasing marginal WAR as a result of limited roster spots would give NY a big boost because they are getting a lot of value out of one player. In other words this comparison really tells us nothing.
You mention how we sold high on Jackson, when the trade was made I felt we were selling high on Grady as well I loved the person but think the tigers were convinced his lefty struggled would never improve. The Yankees made adjustments we may have never made, he plays in a little league park and still has flaws and Jackson is a superior cf in my opinion
by syper17 on Dec 3, 2011 8:32 AM EST via iPhone app reply actions
Metrics are not the only evaluation tool guys
Grandy is not as good as the post implies. He is built for the new Yankee Stadium (or the old Tiger Stadium). The short porch in right field means that routine fly balls in most stadiums become home runs. His swing was WAY too long when in Detroit. The one thing the Yanks coaching did do (for a while) was get him to shorten his swing by leading with a bent right elbow. While in Detroit, he would swing with both arms fully extended. This reduced his power and made his swing longer which made it hard for him to get around on high quality fast balls. BTW, he has started to regress back to his old swing. Great guy, but he would not have performed particularly well if he would have played half his games in Comerica last year.
Bottom line: trade was good for Detroit, Arizona and NY. Best for Arizona…worst for Yanks in the long term IMO.
I would say better off
but they would’ve been *alot better off had they left Arizona out of it.
Not Really
Edwin Jackson and Scherzer are roughly equal talents…..but Scherzer costs us much less and we can maintain control for much longer.
Your forgetting
about the Ian Kennedy aspect of the trade
If it was Edwin Jackson for Scherzer
then Daniel Schlereth for Ian Kennedy makes sick to my stomach.
Can Anyone Explain The Logic of this Statement?
This was a three-team deal. The Tigers traded Grandy and Edwin Jackson and got four players in return. Two were from Arizona and two from New York. How do you get Schlereth for Kennedy when Kennedy was a Yankee and not a Tiger?
exactly.
I mean we were probably a factor in this trade even happening, but it was those two teams who discussed who they would exchange. DD wasn’t in the background going “Nuh Uh! You guys can’t do that!”
The Yankees only received Grandy
There was no necessity for them to bring Arizona. Maybe I’m missing something here but I am recalled the three way trade happened in two parts, first part Tigers sent Grandy to NY for Kennedy, Coke, and AJax – that part I thought was a great trade. Then immediately after flipped Kennedy and Edwin Jackson to Arizona for Scherzer and Schlereth – having seen the type of season Kennedy put together this year, I am not such a big fan of this part of the trade.
Not exactly
It started with the Tigers asking for Phil Hughes and/ or Joba plus AJax for Granderson, and the Yanks wouldn’t do that.
"King of Minutiae"
The D'Backs where the middle man in this trade...
because the Yankee’s wouldn’t give the Tigers exactly what they wanted. Arizona just made everything a bit more palatable for the Tigers because they allowed for the Tigers to get younger and cheaper with MLB ready talent in Scherzer.
Shertzer for Jackson
I believe that was AZ OFFER…so yeah…we pretty much traded kennedy for schlerith
by Wolverine119 on Dec 5, 2011 5:09 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
I gotta disagree
with the statement made that Ed Jackson was terrible. I watched almost every game that year & if u remember the reality was his pitching was not the problem, almost everytime he pitched he got almost NO run support, at least in the 1st 1/2 of the season, mainly due to guys like Everette & Laird who were almost sure outs when they steeped up 2 the plate. Granderson was very inconsistent that yearm especially vs lefties, I will say A Jackson had a way better rookie year, than the display put on last season, hopefully just a sophmore slump-type thing which given his rookie year he displays huge loads of potential, but will need to make adjustments as odviously there was more tape on him & got figured out by opp. Coke IS fine where he’s @, as long as they come to grips w/ that’s all he is ever gonna be, probly. The jury’s still out on Schlaereth & Sherzer’s been very eradict & inconsistent @ best, but is young & shows some potential, but ya I’d agree it’s all about the $ bill, need to sell sumore pizza’s!
Edwin got much worse as the season progressed
He was bad after the break. Batters hit .290 off him after the break, and he had a WHIP of 1.52 with an ERA of 5.07 after the break. That’s not a good pitcher, by any measure.
Edwin seemed to lose the bite on his slider and hitters were laying off the first pitch slider off the plate, so he fell behind in the count. It was almost like he took pitching lessons from Jeremy Bonderman. He wasn’t the same pitcher after the break. But either way, he was 100% going to test the market after 2011. He’s been traded seven times in six years now.
"King of Minutiae"
I don't think
the narrative is quite as simple as you present it, I can’t say I believe that Granderson would have put up the same kind of performance in detroit, and 2010 would have been even more miserable if this trade hadn’t been made so I would do it all over again
I loved the trade that day
when everyone (well, almost everyone) was complaining about it… and still love it today. Gotta give up talent to get talent in return. I still think we’re much better off right now from that trade.
Although I wouldn’t mind trading Schlereth for a large pizza…. as long as it’s not a Hot n Ready.
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One point of contention
I agree with the thesis—that the trade was all about the money, but I think that one crucial piece of information is incorrect:
At the time of the trade, Verlander was not signed to a 5-year extension. In fact, I would argue that the trade freed up the money to allow Dombrowski to sign Verlander to his extension in February 2010. While I didn’t like the trade at the time, that fact alone explained why it took place.
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100% correct
Without this trade, there wasn’t enough money to resign JV. That alone makes it an epic victory.
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Verlander would have been signed, regardless
In fact, he’d probably have made more money in 2010 than the $ 6.85 Million that he got if he had not signed the extension. The fact that JV was eligible for arbitration was one of the factors that added up to a higher payroll coming in the 2010 season.
What did the Tigers save in 2010 by trading Granderson? $ 5.1 million. He made $ 5.5 million and they paid AJax $ 400K to replace him. That didn’t free up money to sign JV. He was already part of the equation, whether they signed an extension or let it ride another year. The trade freed up money for a closer, and eventually for a No. 2 hitter in Damon.
"King of Minutiae"
Not neccasarily.
Grandy was still owed 21 mil for the duration of his contract atthe time of the trade. Even DD has come out an said the without that trade, the money wasn’t there to offer verlander a contract when they did and there isnt a whole lot that makes me believe they could afford him if he were a FA this year. He would have commanded more than Sabathia and I dont think uncle mike would have opened his checkbook for a contract larger than CC’s.
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To clarify- I was never opposed to the trade as a whole
but I felt then, as I do now, that they could have traded Edwin, kept Granderson, signed a different closer, not needed Damon, and they’d have been better off. It’s done now, and we’ve moved on, but I love reading everyone’s perspective on this deal. The full story can’t be written yet.
"King of Minutiae"
"It was all about the money" is too cycnical for me
T-Dog … you and I have discussed this many times.
Personally, I saw DD making these deals because he saw the talent he had syncing up in ‘12. Edwin wouldn’t be a part of it(because of his contract demands), so he dealt him away. For a younger, under control starter. I think DD saw Curtis regressing quickly(as has been mentioned in this thread of comments), and besides … Curtis’ defense was and is wildy over-rated.
The talent on hand on the 25 and in the minors would sync up in ‘12. What else would he do, other than trade his most valuable pieces at the time that wouldn’t be a big part of the ‘12-’17 window if he stood pat?
Sure, there were always going to be deals that neede to be made after Curtis and Edinw were traded. Holes will always need filling. But for what he had, what he had coming, and considering Curtis’ and Edwins age and contract requirements … he did the smart thing. He got talent in the trade that would sync up with the talent he had on hand and what he thought was coming.
It wasn’t “all about the money”. It was taking one step backward for a moment, to take three steps forward when his best talent grew up together.
This is obvious to me.
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To make what I wrote a bit shorter
It was a brilliant move by DD to maximize the window he could see opening in ’12. He made his moves to put good-to-excelllent controllable talent on the field. Around his stars.
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This is partially true, IMO
I said that I’ve thought for the past year that DD made the best of a bad situation, albeit one that he created. Even though I don’t agree with DD’s decision to trade Granderson, you gotta give it up to the guy for wriggling out of a big mess and getting back to where the Tigers were in 2011. But there is no denying the financial reality of the situation. It’s not even really an opinion. The mathematical equation dictated that either payroll be cleared, or no new acquisitions (or even keeping some of the free agents leaving) could be made, unless he was okay to go even higher than the $ 137 million that they spent the previous year. Those circumstances dictated that moves be made.
As for the 2012 theory, I think that what happened in 2011 blows that one out of the water. There isn’t a key piece going to be there in 2012 that wasn’t there in 2011. Even if there was, that kind of thing would not be apparent in late 2009.
Yes, they had to get younger, but replacing Granderson with Jackson was just a bad move all around, IMO, even if you add in Coke, Schlereth, and the difference between Valverde and whatever closer could have been acquired by now. Time will tell.
"King of Minutiae"
Look at granderson stats.
Take him out of new York and he’s just a .260 hitting CF, with some extra power, a bad arm, high K rate, and an over rated glove. Not worth 8 mil.
Jackson had a down year and should hit .250-260 if his BABIP evens out, has incredible speed, high K rate, the best glove in center today, and a great arm. Worth every penny of 400k.
They are a wash in comparison. Grandy posts better power numbers, but Jackson has a better glove an arm. They are about the same caliber of player and the career number for their first two respective seasons are eerily similar. Jackson just cost 7.5 mil less and is better suited for playing in comerica than granderson was
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What happened in 2011 has no bearing on DD getting ready for the window in '12
Curtis and Edwin were not going to be a part of the 5 year window. And as you know, I predicted this 5 year window back in early ’09.
Curtis and Edwin not being a part, was obvious. Curtis was regressing and his salary becoming prohibitive(so, yes, money was indeed a part of it.) Edwin was going to demand compensation beyond his production. Since the Edwin and Curtis were not going be part of the window that opening in ’12, DD did what any smart GM would do. He traded them at their highest worth.
Was “all about the money”? Partially, I’ll agree. But only by saying that he was cashing in currently valuable chips for chips he hoped would help when his talent sync’ed up. He got younger, controllable(ergo: cheaper … on that we’ll agree)talent. Talent that would still be around when his two HOFers were in their prime. And yes, it free’d up the budget for ’12 and beyond so DD could fill some holes.
Trading Curtis and Edwin had to do with money for some part. But not the way you present it. It was all about freeing up money and positions for controllable players in ’12 and beyond. Curtis and Edwin were never going to be a part of that anyway, either through salary demands or production.
DD got what he could at precisely the right moment. Curtis’ ‘11 season notwithstanding. He got players who would not only free up budget, but also players who were controllable and entering their prime in ’12. He was sync’ing up his talent. He was preparing for the 5 year window.
I’ve been saying for years, and I still believe … the window is open starting in ‘12. It last for about 5 years. This could be the first time in Tiger history, the same basic cast of players wins more than one World Series. We’re here to see it. The Curtis/Edwin trades are just a piece of it. And IMO, it was very smart of DD to pull that three way trade off.
Justin can now let the fungus grow back on his shower shoes.
There aren't any windows opening in 2012 that weren't open in 2011
and if DD or anyone else believes or believed that they’d get more value out of Austin Jackson than Curtis Granderson, I say they are sadly mistaken. It’s the surplus value in the relatively small amount of short term payroll savings that will provide the value to the Tigers in this deal.
"King of Minutiae"
Too much credit
The 12’ window???…. That is some funney stuff… DD did a good job of getting himself out of a hole he dug… Thats all… Btw…if he learned his lesson he will not extend Max Schetzer..he is a max effort guy w the same throwing motion as Bonderman… I hope we trade Max after this season…Turner & Smyly will be ready to join the rotation in 2013…Hopefully Schertzer could bring us a nice MI prospect… This move is so obv.
by Wolverine119 on Dec 3, 2011 5:15 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
There is a lesson in all this
and I think DD has learned it well. Do not get yourself tied up with long contracts that limit your options. He is not putting all our chips on Reyes for the next 6 or 7 years. By keeping flexibility, he was able to get Fister at the right time to win the division, wheras the Twins (Mauer) and the White Sox (Dunn and others) were maxed out.
This is why we should go mid-level with free agents to fill our needs, rather than the expensive long term contracts that the “elite” free agents demand.
by manic in Detroit on Dec 3, 2011 3:10 PM EST reply actions
One way I view Dombrowski
Is that he’s rather non-committal with top of the order table-setters, like Granderson, Polanco, Damon, AJax, ect
He will commit to middle of the order RBI bats like VMart, Cabrera, Ordonez, Guillen, Peralta, ect.
Everyone loves the long ball
Not even GMs are immune
Tired of generic music??? Exterminate All Rational Thought is here to help!
Non-committal is acceptable
as long as you get someone adequate for the role before the show begins.
by manic in Detroit on Dec 3, 2011 3:51 PM EST up reply actions
That seems to be how Leyland looks at it, too
We may have to sit them down and give them shock treatments until they grasp the concept of wOBA.
"King of Minutiae"
Good luck
Does anyone else remember this quote by leyland just before the start of last season…“there are always gonna be guys on base..we just need guys to drive tjem in” alltime fav….its Jim leyland in a nutshell
by Wolverine119 on Dec 3, 2011 5:22 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
What's the likelihood that Austin will become a more consistent hitter as his career continues?
His defense is impeccable, and the Tigers seem to win more games when his bat has some life in it. Is it possible that we haven’t seen the best of him at the plate yet?
3rd years are typically historical events
Either a player regresses to the point he can’t hold a job, or he progresses into a viable(and sometimes All-Star capable)ballplayer.
Our own team, we see this. Avila in his third year was an All-Star. Porcello confirmed that he is a dependable, yet bottom of the rotation starter.
This will be both AJax’s and Boesch’s third year. Which will go on to be meaningful, and which will go on to be a footnote?
My money is on Boesch. He can hit a ton. AJax? Defense first, and a 9th hitter at best.
Justin can now let the fungus grow back on his shower shoes.
I'm not sure about likelihood...
but I see Jackson finding himself somewhere between his rookie season and last season. Combined with his defense ability he can be a good player for us for awhile.
I miss Granderson for his leadership abilities.
He’s smart, a great communicator, and not full of himself. I get the impression that he’s a great teammate and a good guy to have in the dugout.
I like Scherzer a lot, but I’m not keen on Coke, and Schlereth, well, don’t get me started about Schlereth. Still, this wasn’t a disaster for the Tigers, and sometimes a GM’s gotta make the best of a tight situation. Under the circumstances, I think DD did about as well as he was going to be able to do.
Of course, we have a team leader in Verlander
and if they had to choose between keeping him and their power hitters, or resigning Granderson, well, Granderson was expendable.
"Leadership abilities"
Is there a more meaningless cliche in all of sports?
Justin can now let the fungus grow back on his shower shoes.
I miss him, but he's hit for better average along with power aginst LHB this springs
Although the jetstream at NYS may be part of the 40+ HR season (I personally thought he would always be a 15-20 HR guy tops), I’m still impressed with his adjustment to playing in that environment. I’ll always be a Granderson fan at heart, just will never ever root for the Pinstripes >; )
In a Tiger fan's world, the Tigers go 162-0 and the White Sox go 0-162.
well, the topic sentence kinda flubbed there at the end
this year, don’t where where springs came from lol
In a Tiger fan's world, the Tigers go 162-0 and the White Sox go 0-162.
Curtis has changed nothing
People praise the Yankees for helping Curtis hit with more power. But he isn’t. He isn’t hitting balls farther or harder. He just plays in a sandbox. It was worth the trade.
Yankee fan here
I was reading many of your comments and I just wanted to provide a little insight to the differences that Grandy made with us.
Some of you are saying that his Homers are a product of the Yankee Stadium short porch, while its true that it does help inflate homer rates it didn’t really affect what Grandy did (by the way he actually hit more homers away from Yankee Stadium). This year the average Granderson Homer was 389ft these balls were not cheapies.
Another thing many of you mentioned were the changes Grandy made to his swing. That is true, the Yankee swing coach Kevin Long (aka the “swing guru”) got Grandy to ease up on the fidgeting and squirming, closed his stance up, and lowered his hands. They aren’t big changes but the difference is night and day, he has killed lefties for the past year and a half.
We Yankee fans love the trade and are very happy with Grandy, many of us are happy AJax is succeeding with you all too.
PS
Granderson’s numbers took a hit due to a bad September, for the rest of the Season (including October) he was very good.
Granderson 2011 Stats
Vs. Left Handed Pitching
194 At Bats
52 Hits
.268 Average
61 Strikeouts
3.18 Strikeouts/At Bats
With the Tigers in 2009 he hit 30 Home Runs (10 in Detroit).
With the Yankees in 2011 he hit 41 Home Runs (21 in New York). Notice the number difference? he hit 11 more total Home Runs and he hit 11 more at home in New York than he did in Detroit. Hmmmmmm.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/event_hr.cgi?id=grandcu01&t=b
by TigersFan1957 on Dec 4, 2011 12:11 AM EST up reply actions
Thanks
First off 389 ft was his average, thats what 20ft beyond left center wall?
Your failing to take into account thing the struggles against left-handers that he had with you. Grandy hit .183 and was awful against them, this year he crushed them while staying steady against righties.
Comerca is a huge park that takes away more homers than an average park but none of grandy’s were the 311 ft barely over the porch “Yankee Stadium special” type of homers.
Granderson = 10M in 2012
We can sit here all day and say that Granderson would be a better asset than AJax in 2012. However, Jackson will be paid 500K in 2012 and Granderson will make 10M. The good news is that we probably have 10M in salary headed into this season that we wouldn’t have had with Granderson on the team. What we’ll do with that money is still unknown, but perhaps it turns into Cespedes and Jeff Francis. So, our 2012 team could have had Granderson or Jackson, Cespedes, and Francis for the same price. In 2011, not paying Granderson the 8.5M allowed us to have AJax, Benoit, and Penny.
If you want to play the angle of having him today instead of Jackson, you have to take his salary also. If the paychecks are equal, of course I’d take Granderson over Jackson. However, I’d rather have Jackson and 9.5M to spend on another free agent than Granderson.
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
If Granderson were a free agent today, and only wanted $ 10 million
I’d give him a seven year contract. I’d also trade him to the Yankees for AJax, Coke, and Schlereth.
I’d do the same deal for $ 8.5 M in 2011. Money wouldn’t be an issue. Of course, we might not have been able to extend Brandon Inge, so there’s that….
"King of Minutiae"
Max would have never been a Tiger if only Edwin was the offer
To try and reconstruct the trade using only certain pieces doesn’t give the full story.
Justin can now let the fungus grow back on his shower shoes.
At Comerica since 2009
AJ .291/.351/.406 (642 PAs)
CG .226/.307/.378 (363 PAs)
I often wonder how people get into the positions they are, to even be a blogger....
I guess everyone has their own opinions. This blogger has his. After reading this blog, I’m not sure what his final position was on the trade. I will point out a few things that I disagree with him on….
First, Scherzer for Jackson was an EVEN trade? LOL there is a REASON why Jackson has pitched for….. what…. Tampa, Detroit, Arizona, Chicago, St. Louis, all in a span of about 4-5 years? This comment was made by the blogger who is more statistical than having baseball knowledge. I will take Maxwell ANY DAY over Jackson. Speaking of Jackson, now lets look at an Austin Jackson / Granderson comparison.
AJ is much younger. I look at him now, and when Granderson was the same age, and I don’t see much difference. The BIGGEST problem I have, is that the STATISTICS guys, like the guy that wrote this blog, either leaves some key points out, or he wasn’t knowledgeable of them to begin with. Everyone sees Granderson hitting over 40 homers… REALLY? Take a look at the dimensions of the park he played in half of his games, and then check out Comerica Parks dimensions. Down the right field line: Comerica 330, Yankee Stadium 316. THAT is why he reached 40 home runs, and you don’t need to be a rocket scientist, just… be knowledgeable about baseball. If Granderson had played for Detroit, he would have hit 25-30 home runs. So don’t JUST use the numbers to make your comparisons for the trade. We live in a 3 DIMENSIONAL universe….. not two.
Now, let me remind you where we got Edwin Jackson from….. We Traded Matt Joyce to Tampa for him. While I loved Matt, and still root for him, He was an outfielder. So actually, we traded Matt Joyce for Scherzer. Now how do you like the deal? Which would you rather have…. Matt Joyce in an outfield that already has Boesch, Jackson, and Delmon Young and have a AAA starter pitching in the 5th starting position….. Or Maxwell. Thank you.
Granderson is statistically superior right now…. ck them 10 years from now when JACKSON is an all star center fielder, and Granderson is retired.
by Veazer on Dec 4, 2011 11:19 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
You're off-base here on several counts
First, if you’d read the entire comment thread, I doubt you would have made the same statements about Granderson’s park-aided power numbers. If you did a little research (or even read some of the comments) you’d find that he hit 20 homers on the road and that his average HR distance was 389 feet. While the park may have accounted for a few of his HR, he would have hit 30+ fairly easily in any home park.
Second, to jump onto a blog and start questioning and berating the authors is a little low class. If you were a regular reader of this site, you’d find the author of this post to be one of the more knowledgeable and well-researched authors in the blogosphere. He gets a little hell bent on calling Raburn the worst 2B ever and won’t forgive Dombrowski for an extension or two, but he’s a smart guy that knows baseball. And you do realize that it’s a blog, right? The idea of a blog is that Joe Schmoe can impose their opinion on the Interweb. Blogs are a beautiful thing because they allow the masses to have a voice. If you come onto a blog and expect people to not mix their own opinions and thoughts into a piece, you’re missing the point. Perhaps you should focus your attention on the mainstream media recaps of games so you can avoid opinions.
And to say that we traded Joyce for Scherzer is silly. The dominoes falling may be able to give you a path that leads from Joyce to Scherzer, but we did not trade Joyce for Scherzer. Nor can you reasonably say that there was ever an intention of spinning Joyce into Scherzer with the time frame between them.
I think your comment is combative and poor.
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
by momotigers on Dec 4, 2011 10:13 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
If you look at the trade as being Edwin for Max...
I would agree that we got the better of that deal. Max has more upside, costs much less, and we can maintain control for longer (especially since Edwin’s agent is Boras).
That would mean we got Schlereth, Coke and Austin Jackson for Grandy. Not a bad deal for us either. Schlereth has potential but no consistency (at least not yet).
Coke is a very good reliever that we tried to turn into a starter. Hopefully we have not ruined him (I think he will be OK).
Jackson is a superior defender and MAY be able to get back on track after a poor first half offensively last year. He may never be the complete package equivalent of Grandy but he could become a very good centerfielder. Once again, he costs WAY less and gives us much longer period of team control.
Bottom line: we filled one additional position (Coke) with the potential for two additional positions (If Schlereth ever becomes consistent) and a much lower price, younger age and longer team control. Good job DD.
Ideally
I would have liked to keep Granderson and trade for Scherzer, but ideal doesn’t often happen in the real world.
I think Dombrowski did the best he could within the constraints he had. If the trade was a “loss” it wasn’t a glaring one, and has the potential of being a net positive. It isn’t rational to expect every trade to be a fleecing in the favor of your own team. That doesn’t happen – best scenario is to win more than you lose, and not have the losses be crippling. I think this qualifies.
Random nonsense at @Baroque97
"It is a mistake to try to look too far ahead. The chain of destiny can only be grasped one link at a time." --Sir Winston Churchill (1874 – 1965)
The financial reality at the time was
that two of Granderson, E. Jackson, Verlander and Cabrera had to be traded. Nobody was going to take Guillen or Dontrelle off our hands. Facing this situation, most of us will agree that DD made the correct choices. The mistake was getting into this situation in the first place. Few could foresee our economy going in the tank as fast as it did. We are all older and hopefully wiser now.
by manic in Detroit on Dec 4, 2011 7:38 PM EST reply actions
What's that phrase in Donnie Darko?
Not all human emotions/actions are lumped into just good or bad? I think this could use a fourth option.
Cutting the salary=Good
Giving up Granderson’s bat=Bad
Austin Jackson’s defensive upgrade=Good
Odds he goes all Golden Sombrero once a week=Bad
Spinning Jackson for Scherzer=Good
Schlereth’s real strong second half of this season=Good
How you weigh some of those is the more elaborate argument. The argument that they needed A-Jax and his glove more than Granderson’s offense because of who is surrounding him in the OF is more an indictment of other moves by DD than the trade specifically, I will say that. I think the trade is about a 6 or 6.5 if 5/10 indicates a wash.
Nice article, and I understand your thoughts
But, I disagree in how well the Tigers came out of this.
Austin Jackson does not begin to replace Granderson.
I have to completely disagree with this. Lets take a look at Granderson’s last two years with the Tigers
2008 280/365/494, 12 SB, -11.9 UZR/150, 4.3 WAR
2009 249/327/453, 20 SB, -1.4 UZR/150, 2.9 WAR
Now we look at Jackson’s two years with Detroit
2010 293/345/400, 27 SB, 5.7 UZR/150, 4.1 WAR
2011 249/317/374, 22 SB, 8.0 UZR/150, 2.8 WAR
Those numbers show that he replaced (wins wise) almost exactly what we lost in Granderson, which is a 3-4 WAR player. Granderson’s production in NY is irrelevant, we can’t know for certain that he would have replicated those numbers in Detroit. It has been reported (and confirmed) that the batting coach at NY found a problem with Grandy’s swing the first year they had him, corrected it about half way through the season, and he has produced much better since then. There is no guarantee that Detroit would have seen and/or fixed that problem, especially because they didn’t in the 4 years he played for us. We do not get as much offensive production out of Jackson as we would have with Granderson, but he is a larger threat on the base paths (when he actually gets on base) and is a much better defender than Granderson.
I agree with you about Scherzer and Jackson being similar players/pitchers. Good move financially.
That means that we made lateral moves with Jackson and Scherzer, plus we got two additional contributors to our team. Seems to me that giving up two players that are more cost prohibitive, getting two equal value players for cheaper as well as two additional players that have been a big piece of this years playoff run and figure to be solid pieces in the future is a big win for Detroit.
But for the Tigers, was this trade a success? Not on the field thus far, in my opinion
What on the field numbers are you looking at that doesn’t show this as a success?
by wilsonm24 on Dec 5, 2011 5:46 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
OBP, SLG, and OPS, for starters
I guess you have to put me among the skeptics on AJax’s future, and among the big supporters of Granderson’s future. But even in the short term, Curtis has shown quite a bit more pop in his bat, and better ability to get on base. AJax has replaced all of Granderson’s defense in CF, but I think that has limited value overall. We’ll never know what “would have been”, but I don’t believe that AJax will ever be able to repeat the season that Curtis had for the Tigers in 07, and Granderson will have a couple more all star caliber seasons. Time will tell.
"King of Minutiae"
Ajax more than makes up for Granderson's defense
Granderson’s defense is really not that good.
The statements you were making stated that AJax couldn’t replace what we were getting out of Granderson, other than one season by Granderson, AJax has replaced Granderson. Value for value I would rather have the superior defense on a very weak defensive team than a good offense on an well above average offensive team.
WAR shows that the value we gave up with Granderson is the same value we got back in AJax. (and I agree with you that he shouldn’t be batting first, but there isn’t anyone else on the team that I would put there right now either).
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