Victor Martinez Vs. Other Catcher/DH Combos

In my previous FanPost (link at the bottom) I took a look at Victor Martinez's contract in comparison to the other large free agent contracts inked this off season, I didn't compare Martinez to the other options at catcher and DH. Players who signed for less money, yet would have only occupied half of Martinez's roster spot. Guys like, Miguel Olivo and John Buck at catcher, or Vlad Guerrero, Jim Thome, and  Hideki Matsui at DH.

In my opinion the Tigers didn't pursue these guys because they weren't flexible and had too many black spots. The Tigers really lacked three things headed into the off season, a catcher, a second baseman, and a DH. They had the most internal options at second base, and they would have needed two players to fill the other needs with anyone but Martinez. With Martinez they were able to fill backup catcher and designated hitter with one roster spot. I'm not saying this is the way I think it should have been done, but I believe it is the way the Tigers thought it should have been done. We'll see what I think at the end of this, but my guess is Martinez was the smarter decision. I'll put up some stats for the potential candidates at each roster spot, so people can see what we might be expecting right now had the Tigers have taken a different path. Catchers (calculated first) will be calculated as both starters and backups, but DH will only be calculated as a starter. The first part is cumulative stats from 2008-2010, the other is a Marcel-style WAR projection.

John Buck, 3 years and 18 million: 1057 PA  .253/.307/.440  20.5CS%  1.8 WAR in 110 games  .8 in 50

Miguel Olivo, 2 years and 7 million: 1160 PA  .258/.296/.462  36.5CS%  2.6 WAR in 110 games  1.2 in 50

Yoevit Torrealba, 2 years and 6.25 million: 866 PA  .269/.330/.384  25.8CS%  2.1 WAR in 110 games  .9 in 50

Russell Martin, 1 Year and 4 million: 1625PA  .261/.364/.356  30.7CS%  2.6 WAR in 110 games  1.2 in 50

Rod Barajas, 1 year and 3.25 million: 1176PA  .237/.277/.411  34.3CS%  1.2WAR in 110 games  .5 in 50

First, who knew Miguel Olivo was that good, despite his inability to get on base? All of these catchers, with the exception of Russell Martin, are on the wrong side of 30 and have either spent a good part of the past 3 years as a backup or on the DL. Russell Martin has also declined significantly since his sophomore campaign when he produced 4.6 WAR for the Dodgers. I'm not sure I would like any of them on my team as Alex Avila's partner behind the plate, but if I had to pick one I would pick Miguel Olivo. Since the Tigers are built to win now and can't afford to buy into a reclamation project like Russell Martin I wouldn't want the possibility of further decline hurting the team. The others just don't offer enough production for me to buy into them. Also you have to consider whether the potential catchers will start or backup. I'm in the group of people who think Alex Avila needs to catch everyday to grow as a player, and I feel he could be as good as any of these players, plus cheaper and younger, this season. The Tigers have shown similar feelings.

Next up come the DH-types. While most of them could experience Jim Rice style drop offs this season due to their age, and others (Jim Thome) can't even play everyday as a DH due to ailing limbs, one might prove valuable enough that a tandem with Miguel Olivo would pay off better than Victor Martinez alone. Since defense doesn't matter I'll just post their slash lines and their full season WAR projections. Jim Thome won't be looked at for the above reasons, and Johnny Damon definitely is not worth the 5.25 million he got to DH for Tampa Bay.

Vladimir Guerrero, 1 year and 8 million, 1650 PA  .300/.350/.496  2.0 WAR in 135 games

Hideki Matsui, 1 year 4.25 million, 1458 PA  .279/.366/.467  1.9 WAR in 134 games

Jack Cust, 1 year and 2.5 million, 1635 PA  .245/.373/.444  1.9 WAR in 130 games

Manny Ramirez, 1year and 2 million,  1405 PA .311/.421/.548  2.8 WAR in 107 games

It may appear as if Manny Ramirez is worth the most of the players examined, yet he experienced a career low in slugging % and his second worst season in many other categories last season. He is regressing most heavily of the four. On the other had Jack Cust got a large boost from batted ball luck last season, and is a bit of an anomaly as a player overall. Matsui and Guerrero have had more luck neutral seasons than Cust and are less likely decline candidates than Manny. Personally I would pick Hideki Matsui from the group as the player I want in the DH spot for my team as his WAR to salary ratio is the most desirable and his hitting profile appears to be less susceptible to sudden meltdown than Guerrero's free swinging approach.

So, it looks like we have our duo to face off against Martinez. I previously calculated our value of Martinez as a primary DH to be 3.3 WAR next season, but now it looks like DD made a horrible choice by targeting Martinez rather than multiple options. After all, Miguel Olivo and Godzilla are projected to combine for 4.7 WAR as regulars. Yet, we have to consider the fact that Olivo would likely backup to give Avila playing time, which I really feel is the direction the organization wants to take. If Olivo is used as the backup or even splits time evenly at catcher, that brings the potential of the duo down to 3.1-3.8 WAR.

Who even knows if Dombrowski would have been able to attract both players, we know he would have likely had to better the 7.25 million they combine for in salary next season. He could have gotten more than Martinez, but in the end I think it would have been too risky to try to attract two players than only going after one. You never know who is going to get a huge deal to play for another team. Jayson Werth would have been a great acquisition this off season, and I think the Tigers may have at least looked into him as an Ordonez replacement, but you can't anticipate a desperate team coming in on any player with a massive overpay, such as what happened in this case. Matsui's age is a factor too. With any of the designated hitters you take a risk on their bodies giving out on them mid season, and you certainly cannot expect them to produce for the next four. It was a safer move to target just one player than gamble on getting two. A riskier decision, such as the previously mentioned scenario, could have brought a better payoff, but I'm happy the Tigers played it safe on this one.

http://www.blessyouboys.com/2011/2/25/2015334/victor-martinezs-contract-revisit

All stats from Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference