Keys to 2011: Your ideas
by Kurt Mensching on Mar 30, 2011 2:00 PM EDT
in Detroit Tigers Analysis
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PrintHere's a few keys to the season BYB readers came up with in Monday's discussion post that I haven't touched on so far.
1. Hitting with Runners in Scoring Position
This one was suggested by more than one individual who noticed the repeated manta from the announcers: "The Tigers threatened, but did not score."
How bad was it? With runners in scoring position, the team hit just .256 (OPS of .727). Without runners in scoring position they batted .270 with a .758 OPS.
They didn't do as bad as memory might serve with a runner on third and less than two outs. The Tigers hit .343 with an OPS of .919.
In any case, it's undeniable: The Tigers must do a better job getting runners across the plate. Having a better lineup from top to bottom should help with that.
2. Running More, Better
The Tigers don't necessarily need to be a leading team for baserunning. But they've often been criticized for going station-to-station, and they do not even attempt to steal bases even with capable players like Austin Jackson. So a few BYB readers thought they could do a better job in both areas.
Checking in on the sabermetric stats, the Tigers were 2.2 equivalent baserunning runs below average in 2010, per Baseball Prospectus. (Interestingly, that ranked them an above-average 14th in the MLB and ahead over every division rival).
According to MLB.com's Jason Beck, we saw an improvement in 2010 that Leyland would like to sustain: He wrote, according to Bill James Online,
The Tigers earned a +23 net gain in baserunning, also their best since at least 2002. Add in basestealing, and Detroit’s +23 net gain was their best since 2007, when they somehow earned a huge rating on stolen bases.
3. Figure out the Twins
This wasn't quite as big an issue in 2010, when the Tigers went 9-9 vs the division opponents who can sometimes give them real fits. But that was then, this is now, as they say. The Tigers must continue to at least break even against the Twins and White Sox, (who the Tigers were 10-8 against), and hopefully do a bit better than that.
4. Winning Baseball Games
Thank you, jokers in the crowd!
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I think that the Tigers have addressed these issues at least somewhat...
and BTW- this series of articles on what issues are of concern to the Tigers has been excellent. You’re doing a great job of framing the issues of concern, pointing out the numbers that reveal a deficiency, and highlight what to look for in terms of improvement. Maybe your thoughts on these issues just lines up with mine, or maybe the issues are that obvious with a little bit of digging into the numbers, but either way, this kind of material is not found in other places with an honest, critical analysis like this. Nice work!
As to these two issues, I’d bet my bottom buck that the reason the Tigers went for Peralta, of all people is because he is a twin of Renteria he seems to have a knack for driving in runs, and the Tigers were pathetic on that score last season. A team that is 4th in team Avg, 5th in OBP, but 8th in runs scored, has some issues bringing runners home. The mere subtraction of Laird and Everett from the lineup can do nothing but improve the offense.
Jim Leyland, without looking this up, has to be a manager that puts on a lot more hit n run plays than your average skipper, and that would atone for the lack of attempted steals. The Tiger lineup is what it is, and they’re a relatively slow bunch on the bases. That, plus you don’t want to take the bat out of the hands of the best hitter in the league by stealing second base just before he comes up. Still, they’ve put Rhymes in that 2 slot partly because he can make contact, get on base, and he can run better than anyone else on the roster with the possible exception of AJax.
The Tigers have a good group of guys in their lineup. Whether they have the right mix of players to generate runs is something that we won’t know until they take the field. But at least on paper, every move that they made this off season is an upgrade over what they had this time last year. V Mart is the obvious big addition, and we hope that he can drive in what little is left to drive in after Cabrera hits.
Slightly off this path- one area of concern to keep an eye on is the OBP in the top three slots ahead of Cabrera. Miggy didn’t lead the world in RBI by himself. AJax did a fine job of getting on base in 2010, but he had an unsustainable BABIP, and will have to offset a drop in that number by turning some K’s into BB’s and hits. The Tigers were 2nd in the league in OBP from the 2 slot with a .356, but most of that was Damon. The league average was .333. They’ll need to offset a likely modest drop in OBP there with either some speed (Rhymes), or power (Raburn), or both (Sizemore). In the 3 hole, the production fell off a cliff, particularly in the OBP dept, once Magglio went down. Maggs has gotten on base at a .370 clip his whole life, and even gotten on base in the first half of 09 when he struggled mightily with a total power outage. We need Maggs there, healthy and hitting ahead of Cabrera. If those three get on base, the runs will come, and the improvements at the bottom of the order should put the Tigers in the top five in the league in run production. Maybe even better.
I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!
sacrifice anything
productive outs will make me happy
bunt / hit to the correct side of the infield / fly out / etc
i will be happy with all good at-bats in these situations
just please don’t strike out too much this year!
This year . . .
. . . it will be more a matter of figuring out the White Sox than the Twins. The Twins always seem to manage to do more with less, but they don’t look all that impressive this year . . .
Hitting vs. Pitching?
Twins = Scored 781 runs, Allowed 671 runs. 94 & 68 First Place.
White Sox = Scored 752 runs, Allowed 704 runs. 88 & 74 Second Place. 6 Games Out
Tigers = Scored 751 runs, Allowed 743 runs. 81 & 81 Third Place. 13 Games Out
Differences: Twins = 30 Runs Scored & 72 Runs Allowed. = 13 Games Apart.
Differences: White Sox = 1 Run Scored & 39 Runs Allowed. = 7 Games Apart (Not Because of the 1 Run Difference in Runs Scored).
Tigers Pitching gave up to many runs last year. If they can hold teams better this year we may pull off our Division. I don’t see this team going much farther than that though.
Numbers are from: http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/DET/2010.shtml
Tigers hitting was good enough last year & I think they will be okay again this year. The Pitching will dictate how far this team will go. Barring any Major Injuries of course.
Agreed
The Tigers had the 8th best offense, but the 12th best pitching staff in a 14 team league.
The offense showed signs of being able to score more runs, as they led the league in runs for August and September, and they were 4th in the league in OBP. They got runners on, but didn’t bring them home. The subtractions of Everett and Laird, plus the addition of V Mart can only help.
Pitching, on the other hand has changed, but we don’t how much know for the better, if any. Coke is a mystery, Penny’s health is a question mark, Porcello is no sure thing, and even Max isn’t a certainty to be as dominant as he was. The bullpen also has questions in the 7th inning and from the left side. I think they’ll do better than the group that started out with Bonderman and Willis, and had Oliver for five starts getting shelled. But this is where the Tigers definitely need to improve to win.
I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!
The four things mentioned in the article are important….But, if the Tigers are to win the division it will because the starting pitching lived up to it’s potential…
The bullpen was good last year until it burnt out from overuse and I have confidence in how usually Leyland uses them…They should score enough runs but will the starters give them enough QS’s??
It's always about pitching.
Pitching wins championships it alway has and always will.San Fran won last year because of pitching.The good news the Tigers have a wealth of young pitching almost ready for the big leagues.
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