Was Leyland right with his 'they're due' comment?

by Kurt Mensching on Apr 10, 2011 11:02 AM EDT in Detroit Tigers Analysis

Yesterday, Tigers manager Jim Leyland played four players -- Austin Jackson, Jhonny Peralta, Brandon Inge, and Casper Wells -- who were a combined 4-for-51 off Bruce Chen.

Jackson was 1-for-9, Peralta 2-for-14, Inge 1-for-21 and Wells 0-for-7 heading into the game.

Why did he go counter to the small-sample size stats he usually relies on to make his decisions? He told the media:

"Shows how smart I am. ... The way I look at it, they're due."

So let's see how due they really were. Yesterday against Chen, they were a combined ... 1-for-9 with four strikeouts.

Ouch. I guess they weren't so due after all. If only Leyland had said, "I don't make lineup decisions based on a handful of at-bats against a certain pitcher" we'd be heralding his saberness today, but instead he says they're due and proves Joe Morgan's frequent thesis wrong again.

Here's how the individuals did in their at bats against Chen:

Jackson

First inning -- Strikes out swinging

Third inning -- Fly out to right field

Sixth inning -- Grounds out to pitcher

Peralta

Second inning -- Fly out to left field

Fifth inning -- Strikes out swinging

Inge

Third inning -- Strikeout on a foul tip

Fifth inning -- Strikes out on a foul tip

Wells

Third inning -- Singles to center field

Sixth inning -- Pops out to first baseman

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Chen is a .500 pitcher who had a good day

career vs. Detroit

Small Sample Size or not, Chen did what he can do. Jackson is struggling so far this year no matter who he faces. Inge and Peralta are doing well. Wells hasn’t played enough to know anyway. Actually, 8 games isn’t enough AB to say one way or the other.

Actually I would argue that Jackson IS due. If he is a .300 batter then he should return to the mean soon and that will be impressive when it happens.

I’d still like to see a good explanation of why some pitchers do better/ worse against some teams over the years. With changes in lineups I would believe that things would even out, but some pitchers seem to own certain teams (think Verlander and Texas.) That isn’t the case here (Chen is 3-3 against Detroit), but it’s something to understand better.

"This is the Motor City. And this is what we do."

by murrajo on Apr 10, 2011 11:35 AM EDT reply actions

You can justify playing anyone

every player is either “hot” or “due”

by ScarletP on Apr 10, 2011 11:48 AM EDT reply actions

I dont think Leyland was that off

Chen was having a great game, even people who are normally great against him (such as Miggy) were having trouble hitting him. And he was right, on any other day, they would have been due. Yesterday, Chen was just too good.

But, I dont think I would have started all 4 of them against Chen if I was manager (thank god I’m not), but I can see why he did it.

Go for it

by DetroitSports on Apr 10, 2011 11:53 AM EDT reply actions

not that i want this

but does anyone imagine and wonder how things would be with a different manager? how would a different line-up look? or bullpen strategies? has the game, somewhat, passed him by? i don’t know. but i wonder sometimes.

by I See Ya Rod Allen on Apr 10, 2011 12:13 PM EDT reply actions

I'm not sure what he would do different for line ups

I am sure the bullpen would be different. I would have shipped Thomas out long ago. He is the worst guy there right now.

"This is the Motor City. And this is what we do."

by murrajo on Apr 10, 2011 12:18 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

sizemore instead of rhymes?

by I See Ya Rod Allen on Apr 10, 2011 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Yes. Many times per week.

by BayesLaw on Apr 10, 2011 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions

If Leyland meant by that comment that there was an increased probability

of those guys breaking out, because they hadn’t been hitting up to that point, then he truly is an illogical man. JL needs to face up to the fact that Inge and Peralta are just not good hitters. There is a reason why the Indians dumped Peralta and paid his full salary for the Tigers to take him off their hands. There is a reason why he cleared waivers, with every MLB club passing on him so he could be traded. There is a reason DD could not find a team to take Inge a couple years ago after the Tigers brought in Cabrera as a third baseman, then put Guillen at third in all their brilliance. They’re not worth their contracts.

I believed before the Tigers arrived in spring training that the 1 and 2 slots in the order would be the biggest concerns for the offense, along with having a healthy and productive Ordonez in the 3 slot. Cabrera will hit, but they need men on base ahead of him. V Mart will add some offense behind him, and they’ll find either Raburn, Boesch, or Wells to give them some offense in the next slot. Whatever they get from the bottom of the order is much less significant, but if Peralta is not hitting, his defense makes him a liability to the team overall.

If Leyland deducts that players not hitting are more likely to start hitting because of the “law of averages”, then the Tigers are due for a managerial change.

I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!

by Tigerdog1 on Apr 10, 2011 12:50 PM EDT reply actions

Tigers Are Scoring Runs

In 9 games this year the Tigers have scored a total of 43 runs. At this pace they will score a total of 774 runs this year, last year they scored a total of 751, so they are on a pace to score 23 more than last year.

Scores So Far:
Scored…..Allowed
3……………….6
6……………….10
10…………….7
1………………5
7………………3
5………………9
5………………2
1……………..3
5……………..9
___________
43=4.8 Per Game & 54=6 Per Game, They Can’t Win While Scoring An Average Of 4.8 Runs Per Game? Pretty Sad.

In the same 9 games the pitchers have allowed 54 runs. At this pace they will give up a total of 972 this year, an increase of 229 over last year’s total of 743.

Last year after 9 games we were 6 Wins & 3 Losses, we Scored 49 Runs & Gave Up 44 Runs. We were on pace to give up 792 = (743, 49 less) than we did give up, & we were on pace to Score 882 Runs = (751, 131) less than we did score.

So far this year our Pitching Staff has given up 10 more runs in our first 9 games than last year while our Batters have knocked in 6 less runs than last season.

I have said all last winter this team would score enough with the hitting, but that the Pitching Staff was Not even close to good enough. I was hoping the BullPen was improved enough, but so far I was way off on that one.

It’s way early in the season so maybe they will pull it together. I will always Hope.

by TigersFan1957 on Apr 10, 2011 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions

To be fair Wells was one of the few Tigers in whole to get a hit...

Not to mention it was the first hit

by ZWC11 on Apr 10, 2011 12:59 PM EDT reply actions

This is called the "Gambler's Fallacy"

If a game is fixed, or a statistical trend is obvious, there’s no such thing as betting against it on the theory of being “due.” If dice are loaded, they’re always loaded the same way.

I think Jim Leland would be a lot more amusing if I didn’t think he cost us a couple games each season by making fallacious or magical decisions. If only there were some way to have him give the public comments but not actually make the calls!

by Joshsteich on Apr 10, 2011 1:18 PM EDT reply actions

I was going to post something similar

Until I read your post, so naturally I agree completely. Keep Jimmuh out of the casinos.

by Mark in Chicago on Apr 10, 2011 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions

If the Tigers are languishing after a couple of months

then I completely advocate an in-season regime change. Leyland has established a long history of poor game in-game management, and comments like this show he’ s not very smart either. Everyone who ascends to the pinnacle of their profession should be well-equipped to out maneuver his competitors, and I have no faith Leyland is capable of doing that.

I will also grant that what he said and what he thinks could very well be two different things He can’t very well say that he’ s going to play guys that can’t hit because he doesn’t have anyone better, indicting half of his 25 man roster.

Maybe they can capture some Showalter-esque lighting in a bottle and salvage another season with a $100 mil + payroll.

by BayesLaw on Apr 10, 2011 3:05 PM EDT reply actions