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Tigers bullpen: When do they deploy relievers and how do they do?

Only Jose Valverde has been used in higher leverage situations than middle reliever Brayan Villarreal (pictured).

At the end of last April, I took a look at Jim Leyland's bullpen usage in a somewhat unconventional way. I used leverage index -- found at Fangraphs -- to see where and when he was inserting his top relievers. Overall, however, I wasn't a big fan of the graphI used (which was the Tigers version of a graph made by Jeff Zimmerman over at Royals Review).

An idea popped into my head and after putting it down on pape ... er, into Excel, I think I've improved on my post from last year.

What I've done is taken each reliever's Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) and plotted that against each pitchers total batters faced this year. Then, creating a bubble graph, I used each players average leverage index when he enters the game (called gmLI on Fangraphs) to dictate the size of the bubble.

Before we present this years data, let's make a test run on the 2010 season first. Data and graph after the jump.

Star-divide


Tigers_2010_leverage_index_medium

You can click the image to enlarge. The way to interpret this graph is batters faced is on the vertical axis and the pitchers xFIP is on the horizontal axis. The size of the bubble is indicative of a higher leverage index when the pitcher enters the game -- and this is full-season data. Ideally, as you go further right along the horizontal, you go further up along the vertical and the circles get bigger.

Here, Jose Valverde was the best reliever in the 2010 season for Detroit. He, Phil Coke, and Ryan Perry had all had similar tough situations to come into. But, because of Valverde's better strikeout numbers and nearly equal walk numbers, he was the best pitcher of the three.

Now, let's apply to how Jim Leyland's deploying his bullpen in 2011:

Tigers_leverage_index_medium

There's a clear divide in terms of the number of batters faced. Double Al (Al Alburquerque), Ryan Perry and Robbie Weinhardt all have under 15 batters faced. As such, their results aren't too stable -- though Ryan Perry will surely face more batters now that he's over his eye infection.

Once again, Valverde has been very good -- striking out eight of the 30 batters he's faced while walking just two -- but what surprises me the most is how big Brayan Villarreal's bubble is. In fact, only Valverde has come into more high-pressure spots than Villarreal -- that's largely a product of the ninth inning being more pressure packed than the sixth or seventh, where Villarreal's been getting work. However, Valverde usually gets clean innings to work with while Villarreal's getting appearances with men on base, which make it all the more impressive. Now, he hasn't quite performed as well as Joaquin Benoit -- I'd like to see Benoit deployed more in the situations Villarreal's been getting instead of strictly waiting for the seventh with the lead or whatever 8th inning comes along -- but he's been beyond serviceable thus far.

As I said, Benoit has pitched better than Villarreal but he's been getting easier situations to come into. Of Benoit's nine games, five of them have been with no one on base. On the other hand, every appearance by Villarreal has  come with men on base and in the middle of an inning. However, Benoit's been better at striking hitters out and limiting walks than Villarreal has been, and I would like to see Benoit get some of the sixth-inning, two-on, one-out situations like the ones Villarreal has been getting.

To the left side of the graph, Enrique Gonzalez, Daniel Schlereth and Brad Thomas have struggled in medium-leverage situations, though Thomas' are more platoon-related where he's matched up against a tough left-handed hitter.

Overall, I think this is a relatively simple way to get a nice thumb sketch of how good each pitcher is in the bullpen, the sample size -- snuck in a Mensching Pet Peeve! Yes! -- of batters the pitcher has faced, and a decent gauge on how crucial the situations have been in which they were deployed.

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I like the 3D graph

rather than just the horizontal and vertical dimensions, the bubble size creates a nice visual image of what’s going on. Nice work on the graph, Mike.

I, too, would like to see Benoit coming into the game in higher leverage situations before it’s “his inning”. If he’s the better pitcher, it’s more important to have him with a narrow lead in the 7th inning with two on and nobody out, than it is in the 8th with nobody on and nobody out (to start the inning). Leyland has rejected this idea, going by the book of ignorance, and there’s nothing we can do about that.

A couple of other things come to mind as well. Enrique had a pretty good sized bubble, but it got too big and now his bubble has burst. (sorry, just had to). Schereth has a good sized bubble, but if JL is using him more against lefties, the rationale for his usage isn’t tied to leverage or the importance of the situation, but rather the more random L/R variable. Despite the above rant against the ignorant book, managers including Leyland do have a formula based generally upon high leverage situations. A closer is brought in when a clean inning WILL give the team a win, every time. The set up men are used when the team has a lead and the chances of a win are greatest. The mop man comes in for multiple inning duty when the starter is knocked out and the chances of winning are lowest.

I was going to make a comment about the difference in the size of the bubbles from one year to the next, but I’d rather pose that as a question. Why are the bubbles generally bigger in 2011 than they were in 2010? Is that because our pen has been seeing more higher leverage situations this season? Or just too much pizza and chocolate cake over the winter? Or is it an optical illusion?

PS. Gut feeling- AA doesn’t have enough control, much less command, to hold down a job in the show. Brad Thomas needs to be a LOOGY or gone, and I like the minor league options for the bullpen should a vacancy arise.

I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!

by Tigerdog1 on Apr 22, 2011 12:21 PM EDT reply actions  

The reason the 2010 bubbles are bigger

is that the calculated leverage indexes are bigger. In 2010, Coke, Valverde and Perry had the most appearances with gmLI numbers ranging from 1.26 to 1.48. This year so far, the same numbers for Villareal, Benoit and Valverde range from 0.94 to 1.12.

I don’t yet understand leverage index well enough to make any informed comment about why that’s the case, but I’m interested.

by lesmanalim on Apr 22, 2011 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

However, Benoit’s been better at striking hitters out and limiting walks than Villarreal has been

Villarreal actually has a slightly better K/9 rate (6.75 to Benoit’s 6.23) but a much higher BB/9. Of course, we’re talking about ~8 innings apiece for each pitcher, so while the early numbers are interesting, I’m not sure how clear a picture they paint.

One thing that caught my attention while I was checking out their relative pitching stats is that Benoit has an early BABIP of .167 to Villareal’s .375. There’s going to be some regression to the mean both ways there.

by lesmanalim on Apr 22, 2011 2:11 PM EDT reply actions  

I'd rather look at K% which is K/plate appearances.

By this, Benoit’s K’d 6 of the 32 batters he’s faced (18..8%) while Villarreal’s K’d 6 of the 35 batters he’s face which is 17.1%.

by Mike Rogers on Apr 22, 2011 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

I like a good ol fashioned WHIP

I think strikeouts are overrated, both for pitchers and hitters. I think they have to be looked at in the context of the overall body of work. I don’t like, for instance, the trade off of AA’s increased K’s and increased BB’s.

I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!

by Tigerdog1 on Apr 22, 2011 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

Cannot disagree more with strikeouts being overrated for pitchers.

The absolutely, postively best result a pitcher can have when pitching is striking out the batter. There’s no chance for a ball to fall in, there’s no chance the batter is driving in a run or getting on base (save for a dropped 3rd strike). They simply walk away. Pitchers in non-K outs have to attribute their success to someone else who is making the play. However, in K-outs, they control, and get the reward, of 100% of the out.

by Mike Rogers on Apr 23, 2011 12:45 AM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

this is true!

and strikeouts are a wonderful predictor of a pitcher’s success.

by Kurt Mensching on Apr 23, 2011 9:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

Runs allowed are an absolute measure of a pitcher's success.

I don’t dispute that strikeouts are valuable, but I think they are over rated.
The best result that a pitcher can have is a triple play, followed by a double play, followed by any one or two pitch out where no runners advance. A pitcher that induces a ground ball will get an out the vast majority of the time, and can be credited with getting that out, much moreso than someone else that does their job by making a play. Pitchers that induce fly balls also get an out the vast majority of the time.

I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!

by Tigerdog1 on Apr 23, 2011 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

That's a good point.

K% is a better metric in this case. Still, small sample size.

by lesmanalim on Apr 22, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

Great article!

Please update this once or twice this season… It will be interesting to see how this looks after a few months.

I had to look up xFIP and LI to understand the graph, not it makes total sense. I’m glad that BYB has challenged my understanding of modern statistics again!

Guillen says‚ "¿Que?"

by 51hr_slurpee on Apr 22, 2011 4:20 PM EDT reply actions  

NOT is the time for all good men...

…to come to the aid of their proof-reader…

not=now, as in: “…NOW it makes total sense.”

Guillen says‚ "¿Que?"

by 51hr_slurpee on Apr 22, 2011 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

Thank you.

I will hopefully update it soon. I have changed up the graph a bit and I like the way it looks/the results more now.

And that’s why I provided those links – though I could’ve expounded on what xFIP and leverage index are more in this article; apologies for that – and I’m glad you followed them in curiosity. When I write these sorts of things, I don’t expect everyone to love them or follow them. Just want them to be read with an open mind. So thank you for that.

by Mike Rogers on Apr 23, 2011 12:48 AM EDT up reply actions  

Love the graphs.

Also love the theory, but I’m sure we can all agree that Leyland isn’t going to get creative and stop only calling on Benoit in the 8th inning (and possibly 7th, 1 or 2 out, men on situations).

Hopefully Perry gets some of those situations now that he’s healthy, though.

by rcpratt on Apr 22, 2011 6:29 PM EDT reply actions  

I find Perry to be overrated. For as big of a fastball he has in velocity, it brings "meh" results.

His strikeout rate has never been good for someone who can throw 96. Can’t remember, but I think he’s hovering around the 18% K-rate in his career which is basically a bit below-average for a reliever (if I recall correctly, starting pitchers, on average, K around 18% of batters they face and relievers are around 20-21%, but I could be wrong on that).

by Mike Rogers on Apr 23, 2011 12:46 AM EDT up reply actions  

Second half Perry from 2010 was brilliant

38 innings, 29 hits, 9 BB’s, 1.00 WHIP, 2.37 ERA, and opponents hit just .215 against him.

His 7.3 K/ 9 in the first half was down to 5,92 in the second half, and he was a much better pitcher despite that. He was a legit late inning set up guy and I’ll take those second half numbers from any set up man.

I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!

by Tigerdog1 on Apr 23, 2011 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

I really liked this last year

and like it just as much this year. One thing I would probably switch around would be make the leverage the horizontal reading on your graph and the batters faced the bubble size. To me, the leverage information on this graph is the more important stat and I would prefer to see a more exact differences between Valverdea and Villareal’s leverage over the exact difference in batters face.

by wilsonm24 on Apr 26, 2011 12:24 PM EDT reply actions  

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