What's Wrong with the Tigers? Easy as one, two, three.
One third of the 2011 baseball season is in the books. The Tigers are a .500 team. The Tigers are getting solid pitching from their rotation, but the offense often fails to score enough runs to put winnable games into the W column. We all know about the bullpen issues, yet the Tigers lead the league in save percentage despite having the worst bullpen ERA in the league. In fact, the Tigers have done relatively well when giving the bullpen a lead from the seventh inning on- that’s what saves are. I suggest that the chief problem(s) with the Tigers are their failure to put up enough runs, although there will be issues with the soft underbelly we call “middle relief” in the pen.
Pos Player OBP (Team/ League Avg)
1. AJax . .285 (.277/ .317)
2. Sizemore .329, Rhymes .321, Santiago .310, Dirks .313, Kelly .308 (.335/ .323)
3. Ordonez .226, Boesch .323, Raburn .238 (.262/ .345)
4. Cabrera .430 (.433/ .339)
5. Martinez .362 (.321/ .324)
6. Peralta .370 (.349/ .315)
7. Avila .346 (.297/ .301)
8. See No. 2 (.323/ .311)
9. Inge .266 (.283/ .303)
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Observations:
The Tigers are 40 points below league average OBP in the lead off spot, and 83 points below in the 3 slot. In fact, the Tigers are .200 points below league average in OPS in the 3 slot. That is their biggest single issue.
AJax is not getting it done, and there aren't any alternatives for a lead off hitter.
The 4, 5, 6, and 7 are just fine- all at or above average, when V Mart and Avila are both in the lineup.
The 2 slot has been juggled and the players interchanged with the 8 slot. Looks like the players are all better suited for 8, if not for AAA ball.
The Tigers had an OBP of .356 in 2010 in the 2 slot. They swapped Damon for V Mart, greatly improving the 5 slot, the DH role, and the backup catcher, but at the expense of production the 2 hole. Someone has to start hitting in that slot, or DD has to go shopping.
Magglio put up great numbers in the 3 slot in 2010. League average stat line is .276 /.355/.445/.800. Maggs hit .303 /.378/.474 /.852. When he went on the DL, the Tigers tanked in that position, going from near best in the league to near worst across the board. DD’s answer to fill the void was to bring back Magglio, and I don’t blame him. Nor am I giving up on Magglio’s season. I suspect that healthy Magglio is closer to the 2010 version than he is to the hobbled 2011 version. We will see if the old Magglio returns. If not, the Tigers have a serious issue to be addressed. First, they’ll see what they’ve got in Ordonez.
Avila is underutilized in the 7 slot. He should be hitting third among the current group. I'm sure that Leyland doesn't want to add that pressure on him in addition to his catching duties, which are his primary responsibility, as with any catcher, but the status quo is not working. Peralta could hit third as hot as he has been, but his history shows that he has a knack for driving in runs, not for getting on base. Leyland’s choice has been Brennan Boesch. We’ve seen his upside, but that appears to have come and gone. If we’re counting on Boesch basching on a full time basis, I think we’ll be disappointed.
The point of this exercise is not to show that Leyland’s lineups are out of whack, although they certainly are at times. I’m not sure that Avila hitting in the 3 hole would solve the problems of the Tiger lineup. I do know that Ryan Raburn should not be in that slot while hitting below the mendoza line for the past several weeks, and I don’t believe that Boesch will be consistent enough to fill that role. I’m not sure that there is a suitable alternative to fill the lead off role. AJax still looks like the best bet to me, and if he fails, we’ve got a problem. Leyland has juggled the 2 slot plenty in search of a better alternative. While I didn’t like giving up on Sizemore, I doubt that he was the answer- at least this season.
Rather, the point is that the Tigers need help, and I suspect it’s not anywhere in the organization. If Magglio isn’t his old self upon coming off the DL, then DD will have to go shopping. There are three glaring holes atop the Tiger lineup, and we’re almost certain to see some of the young, promising pitchers that are nearing major league ready on the trade block. Probably a few of them. Moreover, if Dombrowski's job is truly on the line, nobody is sacred. It’s now or never. Anyone could go to save the Tiger season, and the GM’s job.
I am still picking the Tigers to win the AL Central in 2011. I think the division is winnable, and the problems are fixable. I’m still not sold on the Indians, who are now 10- 11 in their last 21 games, and have three series remaining, including 8 games on the road, vs Boston and New York. The Tigers are done with those teams. Chicago and Minnesota both are pushing maximum density, payroll wise. Mike Ilitch has shown a willingness to spend as needed to win, and this year should be no exception. At the one third mark, the Tigers are a .500 club with some pretty obvious weaknesses. Expect some roster moves before we measure up the team at the two thirds point of the season.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Bless You Boys writing staff.
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Dirks has been a decent #2 hitter
I’m not sure how much of a chance he’ll get if Maggs comes back healthy, but he’s been decent. I like how he handles the bat. I was at the game today and Dirks did a good job of moving AJax over in the 1st. Beyond that, the two hits are nice and I’ve liked the defense I’ve seen from him.
Unfortunately, we don’t have much production from 2B, 3B, or CF right now. Hence, I think Dirks will lose playing time to Maggs in hopes of finding more OF production.
We really need some new blood at 2B that can produce in the top of the lineup. Unfortunately, I don’t think it’s inside the organization and right now, there aren’t many sellers that could help us too much.
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
I think this is the lineup we should use, but we never would.
It is too nontraditional.
Vs. LHP:
1 Martinez DH
2 Peralta SS
3 Boesch RF
4 Cabrera 1B
5 Raburn 2B
6 Avila C
7 Inge 3B
8 Dirks LF
9 Jackson CF
Vs. RHP:
1 Martinez DH
2 Avila C
3 Peralta 3B
4 Cabrera 1B
5 Boesch RF
6 Wells CF
7 Dirks LF
8 Raburn 2B
9 Santiago SS
Of course adjustments would have to be made according to pitcher profile and opposing lineup profile. For example, Worth would get the start over Raburn at second if Porcello was on the mound and the opposing lineup was full of groundball hitters.
Once Magglio comes back and proves he can hit the ball with any ability he should be moved to lead-off and Martinez made the #2 hitter all the time. Ordonez and Martinez would hit leadoff due to their history as a double play machines. Their double/OBP hitting style make them ideal to lead-off and their lack of speed is less of a flaw than as #3/5 hitters. Additionally Martinez would get approximately 60 more plate appearances a season by leading off.
Raburn protecting Cabrera vs LHP.
Leading off with the speedster Martinez all the time.
I’ll have some of what you are having. Does anyone know if you still need a prescription to get medical marijuana in Michigan?
"But the point is, finger-pointing is just what sports fans do when something doesn't go right." -- Kurt Mensching
by RealityIsOptionable on May 30, 2011 7:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Your first point is correct,
Raburn should be hitting second with Peralta in the 5-hole. However I doubt you realized that Raburn hits .263/.336/.502 against lefties for his career. Boesch was more worthy of questioning as a #5.
Speed is overrated at the lead-off spot, and is nearly unnecessary, the only thing that matters is OBP. I can’t seem to find my copy of The Book right now, so I can’t find the exact quote, but most of the time when your top 3 hitters bat 1st, 2nd, and 4th in the lineup it should produce the best results. I know even here most people disagree with my opinion, but it is the truth. Martinez is and will continue to be our best option at lead-off. He is better suited to hit second, but now that Austin Jackson has crashed down to earth (he wasn’t a great option last year) it is important that we maximize production from the lead-off position.
Whose wOBA would you rather have: Victor Martinez’s .361, or Jackson’s .281?
I'd like it if Miguel Cabrera got to hit every once in a while
If Raburn is batting behind him, all Cabrera will see are IBBs.
by Rob Rogacki on May 30, 2011 11:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Get Jose Reyes. Pray Guillen and Maggs come back.
This is the only way I can envision this team making a run at the whole ball of wax. It seems unlikely that they would have enough ammunition or payroll flexibility to get two impact players unless they can somehow pull off the Wright and Reyes combo meal, which doesn’t make sense because it would render Peralta useless anyway.
Given the failures of Chicago and Minne, I think they will be able to win the division standing pat or perhaps making a less impactful acquisition. In that case they would be heavy underdogs against any other team in the playoffs unless something funny happens in the west.
If you don’t really have a chance to win the world series, then I don’t consider a playoff-run-by-default as a big step forward for this team.
Playoffs are funny
The Tigs might have enough SP to win in the playoffs. Get JV and Max rolling at the same time (which isn’t a huge stretch since they are almost always rolling) and pick the best of Porcello, Coke, and Penny, and you’ve got yourself a bunch of low-scoring games that we can win.
Also, I’m not so sure we’d be underdogs vs. the AL West winner right now if that’s how the series lined up. Oakland and Seattle are in the race. Oakland is very similar to Detroit (riding SP and coping with offensive woes), while Seattle is worse in many regards. Both LAA and Texas have issues as well. We might be favored against any of them.
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
I don't think we'd be favored against Texas or Anaheim..
I fully expect one of those two teams to show up in the second half and take the division.
Right now though, I agree, we’d probably be even money against the west….and then off to the slaughterhouse in Boston. Our best chance to win a world series would be to face Boston in the first round and steal a couple low scoring games.
Your point is taken though. Any tournament like the playoffs is unpredictable. Starting pitching can definitely steal the day, but depending on who we play, we still might not even have the best starting pitching.
It may not be as easy as you make it out to be.
The Tigers are in the middle of the pack for runs scored. The MLB average is 219 and the Tigers are at 220, or 14th out of 30 teams. I am not saying that scoring runs isn’t an issue, I just don’t think it is “What’s Wrong”.
Pitching on the other hand…. Tigers have a team ERA of 4.26, MLB average is 3.87, or 24th out of 30. Looking at strictly runs, Tigers have given up 23, MLB average is 219, or 21 out of 30.
Again, I am not saying that the problems you mentioned are problems (they are). Boesch has been a big improvement over what we have gotten in the 3 spot, and his numbers are approaching league average. The same with Dirks in the 2 spot. Ajax has been hitting much better the last month or so and is also approaching league average (although after the crap start he has a LONG way to go). I think they have been addressing the lack of offense and the steps they have taken are working.
However, unless you are going to have a top three league wide offense (we aren’t going to no matter what we do this year) then the pitching needs to improve, and drastically. Luckily, they are making moves to try and improve that as well.
Long story short, they have been addressing the deficiencies much more rapidly than in years past. Hopefully, the moves they make are going to be enough to overtake the indians and hold off the sox.
Yeah
It’s the bullpen that’s the real problem. I’d like a deal for a solid setup guy and for Carlos Beltran.
Seriously, I am mancrushing the hell out of Carlos Beltran. Stick him in left and third in the lineup and see how many god-damned runs we score.
CF Jackson
RF Maggs
LF Beltran
1B Cabrera
DH Martinez
SS Peralta
C Avila
2B Raburn
3B Inge
Bitchin.
"Aside from the stuff I haven’t been diagnosed for yet, I don’t have a problem."- Phil Coke
Contributor, Bless You Boys
by David Tokarz on May 30, 2011 11:39 PM EDT up reply actions
We don't have enough
worn-out, injury prone, and/or middling corner OFers for you, David?
"What does a momma bear on the pill have in common with the World Series? - NO CUBS!" - Harry Caray
by 77bestrookieclassever on May 31, 2011 12:01 AM EDT up reply actions
It's Carlos Beltran
A half season rental of Carlos Beltran. He probably wouldn’t cost much, either, especially if the Mets are cutting costs.
Sure, he’s old and injury prone. But what’s the worst that happens? Mr I is out 10 million and we’re out some B-level prospect.
"Aside from the stuff I haven’t been diagnosed for yet, I don’t have a problem."- Phil Coke
Contributor, Bless You Boys
by David Tokarz on May 31, 2011 1:08 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, but he's healthy right now
And if Carlos was healthy, he’d rake.
"Aside from the stuff I haven’t been diagnosed for yet, I don’t have a problem."- Phil Coke
Contributor, Bless You Boys
by David Tokarz on May 31, 2011 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree completely
You’re buying high, but there are much worse players to do that with (ahem, Jarrod Washburn).
by ozymandius1024 on May 31, 2011 9:10 AM EDT up reply actions
Do you mean "You are high if you are buying"?
Beltran will fall apart again this year, and we don’t need more high injury risk players.
"What does a momma bear on the pill have in common with the World Series? - NO CUBS!" - Harry Caray
by 77bestrookieclassever on Jun 1, 2011 12:26 AM EDT up reply actions
So instead we sell the farm going after someone without question marks
"Aside from the stuff I haven’t been diagnosed for yet, I don’t have a problem."- Phil Coke
Contributor, Bless You Boys
Even he has question marks
Because by playing somewhere else, he wouldn’t get to hit in Coors Field in half of his games. His home/road splits are retarded.
by ozymandius1024 on Jun 1, 2011 9:33 AM EDT up reply actions
ummmmm, Kosuke Fukudome?
Decent defense, great OBP. That’s probably all you get with him though. (I’m joking here, btw)
by ozymandius1024 on Jun 1, 2011 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions
I'd like to see what Maggs does first
I mean, the guy hit .300+/ .378 OBP, was on pace for 20 HR/ 100 RBI…
If his slow start is attributable to his injury, then there is no reason to believe that he won’t be as good as anyone out there.
I think there is little doubt that the Tigers will be in the market for a piece or two as long as they’re in the race, but if Maggs can fit back into the 3 slot, that probably shifts the need to another top of the order/ OBP type guy. If Maggs is not good to go in the 3 slot, then we need to fill that position first.
I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!
They've got plenty of time between now and the trade deadline
So we’ll see what Magglio’s got.
I agree with you, by the way.
by ozymandius1024 on Jun 3, 2011 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions
I do not believe I said that.
I do not want to sell the farm, even though we already started and got nothing of consequence in return (Sizemore). Some guys needed to figure things out (Benoit, Sizemore, AJax, Perry, Schlereth) and some need to get healthy (Maggs, Los). I don’t think this team needed a big-time pick-up, especially with what we HAD on the farm. NOW, however, we need a second baseman.
If you are really looking for someone without question marks, there’s only a couple of position players that fit that description, and we already have one of them. I don’t mind question marks, but I’d like to think that after all the recent long and wierd injuries in the organization we may have learned something and would, at least for a little while, steer clear of those players getting big money for not having been playing full seasons lately. They may come cheaper in terms of prospects, but sometimes you really do get what you pay for.
"What does a momma bear on the pill have in common with the World Series? - NO CUBS!" - Harry Caray
by 77bestrookieclassever on Jun 1, 2011 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Sell what farm?
Not many players down there that I’d miss. Turner, Castellanos…. that’s about it.
I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!
I'd say that we do, actually
Our current OF is populated by a combination of 4th OFs and Austin Jackson. That’s not necessarily a terrible thing, because it shows that Detroit has a little bit of depth with it’s outfield, but it also gives them the chance to take a risk on someone like Beltran.
Like David said, Beltran wouldn’t take a premium prospect to acquire, and he’s only signed for this season (granted it’s a lot of money for a short period of time, but that could work in Detroit’s favor regarding the quality of prospect they’d have to send back). He’d massively upgrade both the defense and bat in either corner, and he’d be able to hit near the top of the lineup legitimately.
If Beltran and Maggs got hurt again, then Detroit would be playing with the OF they currently have. Like I said, they could get by with that OF, but this isn’t about just getting by. So to me, outside of Mr. Ilitch’s money, there wouldn’t be a lot to lose by acquiring Carlos Beltran.
by ozymandius1024 on Jun 1, 2011 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions
DD and Leyland
Both of these guys are in their last year so they will throw any player under the bus to get a contract extention. Mr. Illich is not afraid too spend so DD had better start talking to the Mets about David Wright and any team that has a 2nd baseman that can halfway field and hit .275 ( and they are out there)
We need more sellers
You’re right…there are 2B’s that could be had, but there just aren’t that many sellers yet. This will change in July, but it would be nice to swing a deal in June because I have serious doubts that 2B will improve. There is a chance that Raburn puts it together…he’s proven an ability to do that…but, if he doesn’t, we got nuthin.
Unfortunately, the traditional trade-deadline-deal-for-2B just isn’t there. There aren’t any big upgrade style guys that are in a contract year on a selling team. What we might see, if a deal is made, is somebody playing out of position (you know, just like our current 2B). If they got Reyes, perhaps Peralta moves to 2B. Maybe a Wright trade would move him or Inge to 2b. (Another name to consider when talking about Wright is Aramis Ramirez). Another guy that might be able to handle 2B is Chase Headley. There are guys out there that could help, but we’re going to need to be creative.
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
Oh Yeah
Both Raburn and Inge should either be sent to Triple A or just plain released. Neither of these guys could make another Major League roster. If they stay here I am taking bets that between them they strike out over 400 times and I will give odds>
How long until Indians fans get butthurt over this post too?
My guess is we’ll see someone bitch about “not being respected” or something of the like in the next 12 hours. Or they’ll just call Tigerdog a meathead again. He seemed to like that.
Also, I like the new avatar pic Patrick. You’re giving me and Don a run for our money over here.
they lost to Jo-Jo Reyes
their argument is invalid
"I'm a simple man. I like pretty, dark-haired women and breakfast food" - Ron Swanson

"Aside from the stuff I haven’t been diagnosed for yet, I don’t have a problem."- Phil Coke
Contributor, Bless You Boys
by David Tokarz on May 30, 2011 11:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Sorry... I had to
"Aside from the stuff I haven’t been diagnosed for yet, I don’t have a problem."- Phil Coke
Contributor, Bless You Boys
by David Tokarz on May 30, 2011 11:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Mets on the block?
Jose Reyes, SS- Makes $ 11 mil this season (5.5MM deadline acquisition), but thinks he’ll get “Crawford money”, according to his team owner. I don’t think he’ll get 142 mil, but he’ll get more than he’s worth, as several big money clubs (Bos, LAA, LAD, SF, DET, MIN, STL) could be or (NYY) should be looking for shortstops. Jimmy Rollins is eligible for free agency as well, but Philly will push hard to keep him. The Mets can just offer arbitration, let him walk, and collect two comp picks. Start the bidding there. Oliver and Francisco Martinez for Reyes rental and two comp picks? I think DD will stick with Peralta.
David Wright- suggested by many fans and followed by Lynn Henning. Wright is on the DL, but is a solid hitting 3B when healthy. He’d be a massive upgrade at 3B, a middle of the order bat to hit third or fifth. He makes $ 14.25 MM this season, $ 15.25MM in 2012, and a club option for 2013 worth $ 16 MM or a $ 1 MM buyout. Problem: Brandon Inge has full no trade protection as a five and ten player. He’d have to approve any trade and is owed 5.5 MM per season through 2012.
Carlos Beltran: $ 18.5 MM annual contract expires after this season. He won’t be offered arbitration because he’d accept and make way more than he’d get as a free agent, so there are no comp picks involved here, and the club agreed not to offer arby after this season anyway. Beltran is a switch hitting outfielder with power and a good glove, or he used to have anyway. He’s been on the DL quite a bit, getting 308 and 220 AB the past two seasons, so he is a definite health risk. He’s an .850- .900 OPS guy when healthy, but then so is Magglio. Beltran would have to approve a trade, the Mets would have to kick in some cash, and the cost in players may not be that much depending how much cash. $ 5.5 MM of his salary is deferred so start with that amount.
Francisco Rodriguez- K Rod- A pretty good closer when he’s not busting up his pitching hand by beating up his girlfriend’s dad in the press box. K Rod makes $ 11.5 MM this season and there is a club option for $ 17.5 MM for next year with a 3.5 MM buyout. That option vests automatically with 55 games finished (saved or blown) this season. He’d help any team’s bullpen, but no GM is insane enough to pay $ 17.5 MM, so he is likely to be moved to a set up role. He can veto a trade to a list of ten unknown clubs. He said that he’d be willing to waive the NTC and the option in exchange for a multi year deal. Probably still too much, but there are 19 clubs he CAN be dealt to. He would also come with one or two high draft picks.
Jason Bay- probably not going anywhere. He makes $ 16MM per year through 2013, plus a $ 17 MM option for 2014 that vests with 600 PAs in 2013 or 500 PAs in both 2012, 2013, and there’s a $ 3 mil buyout. Bay also has a full no trade clause. He has also been banged up and not producing as hoped when healthy. He was a solid lefty bat in the OF, once upon a time
I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!
I'd like to see Reyes traded with Inge moved out of the line up.
Peralta moves to 3B! But, otherwise, Wright sounds nice.
The real answer is Shin Soo Choo… why must he be on Cleveland?! I am going to cry.
I have a grand idea: let's win a game.
I want absolutely nothing to do with K-Rod
We’re already spending enough on the bullpen and I don’t think I can take another Todd Jones-type reliever on this roster.
If anything, I think a Beltran rental would be the best option for the Tigers. I think Reyes will cost too much, and DD won’t offer him the arbitration that would make him worth the prospects we would have to give up to get him in the first place. Plus, he would only decrease Peralta’s playing time. Getting Wright would be a dream scenario, but I don’t think the team will try to trade Inge (or even relegate him to the bench in that fashion).
by Rob Rogacki on May 31, 2011 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions
Offering Reyes arbitration is the no-brainerest no-brainer ever
Even DD would offer arby.
Here’s the situation. If Reyes were acquired, we kiss goodbye to at least two top-5 prospects. Like TD1 said, probably Oliver and Martinez (although I think it would take Castellanos instead). If lucky, we can use Furbush instead of Oliver and/or Martinez instead of Casetllanos. With the Mets SP, we might even be able to get away with Furbush, Martinez, and Wilk…who knows? Regardless, we’re going to be out a couple of advanced prospects. I think Reyes would play SS and Peralta would move to either 2B or 3B. Make the trade today and my guess is 2B. If Raburn heats up, you might see Inge get bumped.
I think Reyes would make a huge difference because our defense would improve, one of the suckholes in the lineup would be gone, and he’d be an immediate improvement at the top of the lineup as far as OBP in front of Cabrera. I’d feel an awful lot better about our playoff chances.
If the Tigers were to acquire Reyes and offer arby, one of two things happens:
1 – He accepts and gets 15-20M for one season. The Tigers have their SS next season and I suspect Peralta is playing 2B. This is perfect for an organization that would probably benefit a lot from giving another year of development to Iorg, Ciriaco, Nunez, and other SS candidates.
2 – He declines and we get the comp picks. Although we may have parted with upper-level prospects to get Reyes, I think this organization could use a few lower level prospects. Right now, most of our talent is AAAA starting pitching. We could stand to lose a few prospects like Below, Wilk, and Crosby if they are replaced with top-notch lower prospects.
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
I agree with everything that you said about Reyes
but I still don’t have faith that DD would offer arbitration.
by Rob Rogacki on May 31, 2011 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions
I think he would. He offered to Lyon and Rodney, knowing that they'd seek multi year deals.
Not much chance at all that Reyes would accept. This is his big payday.
I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!
Polanco wouldn't have accepted,
but no offer. I think Rob’s right on this one.
"What does a momma bear on the pill have in common with the World Series? - NO CUBS!" - Harry Caray
by 77bestrookieclassever on Jun 1, 2011 10:52 PM EDT up reply actions
I wish I could bet on a "would've".....
cuz it would be fun, but also cuz if it came to that, we’d actually have to GET Reyes to find out!
I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!
the fact that
comp picks may not even be part of collective bargaining next year adds a bit of risk to the trade for two months of Player X, offer him arb and collect picks scenario
I don't think that comp picks will go away
but the fact that teams have to GIVE UP comp picks will be addressed. The idea would be to get rid of the “deterrent” factor for teams to sign Type A free agents. They could, for example, make all the comp picks sandwich round picks, so a team losing a free agent gets compensated, but a team signing a free agent is not penalized.
I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!
BELTRAN
"Aside from the stuff I haven’t been diagnosed for yet, I don’t have a problem."- Phil Coke
Contributor, Bless You Boys
by David Tokarz on May 31, 2011 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
I think there's a decent chance DD would pull the trigger on Reyes...
If his job truly is on the line, then why wouldn’t he do everything possible to win this year? I think any decision he makes will be skewed more toward instant gratification than normal.
This graph posted on Fangraphs yesterday reinforces how miserable the top of our lineup has been.
Link. We have the worst lead-off and three-hole hitters in the AL.
by StringTheory on Jun 2, 2011 12:59 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Good god
At least those are spots where improvement could come pretty easily.
Brennan Boesch, get the hell out.
by ozymandius1024 on Jun 2, 2011 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions
THANK YOU
"Aside from the stuff I haven’t been diagnosed for yet, I don’t have a problem."- Phil Coke
Contributor, Bless You Boys
He's a guy who needs to hit to justify playing time
And a sub 100 OPS+ is not going to do the job. He’s had 200 ABs this year, and all of last year to prove himself. He’s got power, but he’s not consistent enough with it. He doesn’t get on base very well, and despite a diving catch every now and then, he’s not very good defensively. Now would be a good time for Detroit’s fickle approach to work in their favor and get him out of the lineup.
The options outside of him aren’t amazing, but at least Casper Wells can play a great RF and has a little bit of power as well. I’d even be cool with Andy Dirks getting an extended look before the trade deadline to see if he’s for real or not (or even better than Boesch, because his defense is great). If Magglio doesn’t hit when he gets back though, the lineups are going to be really ugly if Boesch is still in them as well.
by ozymandius1024 on Jun 2, 2011 7:52 PM EDT up reply actions
200 AB isn't enough to judge Boesch.
I mean, it’s not like he’s gotten 75 or so PA like some losers who were promptly shipped off… oh wait…
I have a grand idea: let's win a game.
by 13194013 on Jun 2, 2011 8:30 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
I saw what you did there, and rec'd for it.
"What does a momma bear on the pill have in common with the World Series? - NO CUBS!" - Harry Caray
by 77bestrookieclassever on Jun 2, 2011 10:47 PM EDT up reply actions
No, you see he has power and plays in the outfield
Surely Detroit has no other prospects with that skillset. I mean, do you think Detroit has a glut of 4th OF or something?
by ozymandius1024 on Jun 3, 2011 5:59 AM EDT up reply actions
in the 3-hole
Mags 95 PA .157 .211 .180
Boesch 98 PA .236 .276 .416
so he has been bad, but actually a rather drastic improvement
Cool graph. Surprisingly, the two slot is not horrible relative to the league.
I would’ve thought the combined suck-a-thon from Rhymes and Sizemore would be visible.
Sizemore managed an OBP about .110 points above his average
No shock that Billy Beane liked him! #moneyball
I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!
That was kinda the point of this post!
I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!
Two Mets updates
David Wright: According to the New York Daily News, David Wright’s 2013 team option “belongs only to the Mets,” and could not be exercised by any other team.
Wright has been viewed as a particularly attractive trade target ahead of this summer’s non-waiver deadline because it was believed he would be under any acquiring team’s control for two more seasons, but that is apparently not the case. He will still have plenty of value as July 31 draws nearer, but the Mets were already going to have to be overwhelmed to move their franchise player, and this only increases the chances that they’ll sit tight until the winter.
Jose Reyes: According to the New York Daily News, the Mets are more likely to try and re-sign Jose Reyes than they are to trade him this summer.
Interesting, since the assumption that Reyes is as good as gone in New York has been growing across baseball, particularly after owner Fred Wilpon’s dunderheaded comments to The New Yorker. Unless the team’s financial situation dramatically changes in the next six months, it’s hard to envision Reyes will still be in an Amazins uniform in 2012.
On Wright, that would make a difference to me. Wright becomes a one and a half year buy, with two draft picks compensation on the end if he is not extended. The timing may suit the Tigers if Martinez or Castellanos can be ready to go in 2013, but giving up Andy Oliver and a guy like Martinez, for example, could be steep. I still think it would take at least that to get Wright.
On Reyes, I think this is just damage control. Maybe the Mets do extend Reyes, but Wilpon put his foot in his mouth by running down his own players. To extend Reyes after those comments would seem odd.
I think that the Mets are still going to be in payroll slashing mode. That is Alderson’s M.O. Churn em and burn em, keeping the payroll down.
I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!
I kind of understand Leyland's line-up strategy
With Cabrera batting 4th, he probably thinks we get the best of both worlds. I have come to realize that Cabrera is a table setter just as much as he is an RBI threat. If he bats in the 1st inning, it means somebody is on base and he gets an RBI opportunity. Otherwise, Cabrera leads off in the 2nd inning, and we take full advantage of his OBP because he’ll be on base with no outs.
Cabrera is 2nd in the league in walks, so I think it’s smart to have our best hitters batting behind him. I also like having our better base runners hitting in front of Cabrera. It gives those aggressive runners their best chance to score runs. It probably does less good to have a good base runner like Boesch or AJax on base if somebody like Inge or Raburn is batting behind them. Alex Avila probably isn’t ever going to score from 1B unless there’s a HR, so it makes some sense to bat him in front of guys like Inge and Raburn.
IMO, if Cabrera didn’t bat 4th, then he should probably bat 1st. Then have Vmart, Peralta, Avila, ect, ect, and keeping our better base runners at the bottom of the order, so that they are still in front of Cabrera. I think that’s almost what the “The Book” calls Line-up Optimization.
I usually don’t complain about Leyland’s line-ups because their are many different strategies that can work when properly executed. I think Leyland is one of the best at being unpredictable and keeping the opposition and our fans guessing at what he’s going to do next. Being predictable is not a good thing. When Leyland tells us he’s going to something, there’s a 50/50 chance he’s bluffing. If he plays poker, he’d probably take everyone’s money. His deception and ability to read others is that good.
I don't see how being unpredictable helps a line-up score runs...
Surprise! I put Don Kelly in the 3-hole…betcha never saw that coming Josh Beckett. That might scare plenty of us, but the I don’t see how that gives the Tigers some sort of competitive advantage.
The line-up game seems to be more about playing the odds over the long haul. The best you can do is base your day-to-day decisions on expected production. You want your best hitters getting the most at bats and your power hitters getting lots of chances with guys on base. i think it’s pretty clear, based on the evidence we have today, that Avila and Peralta are better hitter than Kelly, Boesch, and Dirks.
Batting Don Kelly 3rd actually worked well in his few AB's there.
Why? I don’t know for sure. Maybe it was done to make the team play like a team instead of a bunch of individuals. Maybe it’s a motivational tool to pump some confidence into Kelly. Or maybe it was to reward Kelly for working harder than anyone else in practice. I hear he even catches bullpen in his free time.
Outside of Cabrera and VMart, how do you predict who the best hitters are?
In April our best hitters were Boesch and Avila.
In May, it was Peralta and Dirks.
So far in June, its Peralta, AJax, and Boesch.
Starting Today, it could be Raburn.
You determine your best hitters by looking at what guys stats are in the biggest sample sizes you have
Whether that’s through their major league career, or the minors for the guys who don’t have significant major league time. It’s really not that difficult. You look at guys skillsets (guys who can take a walk, guys who can get the bat on the ball well and not K, guys who hit for power, guys who can bunt well, guys who have speed and are quality baserunners, etc.) and you put them in situations where they can succeed.
Example one is hitting Don Kelly 2nd instead of giving Andy Dirks the opportunity. Dirks has hit as many HRs as Kelly in the minors despite only having a 3rd of the PAs, he’s stolen bases at a higher rate, he’s put up a comparable OBP, he’s left handed like Kelly is, and he’s 25 while Don is 31. Jim knows Kelly isn’t a good hitter, because Don has shown it both in the minors and the majors, and he still hits him high in the order anyway.
by ozymandius1024 on Jun 5, 2011 10:29 PM EDT up reply actions

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