How good is Jose Valverde?

Your numbers certainly back your argument and it does a lot more justice than that discussion thread where you mentioned ditching him. I agree fully with your assessment that he might not be worth 9M next year.

However, I still think they should pick up the option. The fact of the matter is that without him, we’d be in a pinch next year.

First, we don’t have enough decent options in the system to replace from within. Benoit looks like he could close, but I’m not sure if we have another guy in the system that I’d want pitching the 8th. The problem keeps trickling down into the 7th and 6th if we try to promote from within. The end result is that our bullpen would be worse in every inning, not just the 9th, than it is this year. And our only good innings this season have been the 9th and 8th. I think there are guys in the system that might be reliable enough for late inning duty. I’ve been impressed with AlAl most of the time. I even have hope for Perry, Oliveros, and few others in the minors. However, I don’t want any of them in the 8th inning of a 2012 game. I’ve become a little spoiled with this 8th and 9th inning situation and I can’t go back to blowing leads.

Another option would be to sign a closer that’s either better or cheaper than Valverde. This doesn’t sound bad, but I don’t think you could do it for a year. I think the minimum commitment would be 2 or 3 years, just like Valverde’s contract. While I don’t think our bullpen will fix itself from within in 2012, I like to think that we can start trusting some of our own (cheaper) arms in 2013 and 2014. So, saving on Valverde in 2012 might end up costing us more that we would need to spend in the next few years.

Finally, we could probably trust Benoit to close and sign a guy for the 8th inning. If we want him to replace Benoit, we know that the price of a quality 8th inning guy is 3yr/17M. We might be to blame for setting that bar with Benoit’s contract, but I don’t think that trend will reverse itself this off-season. So, promoting Benoit and replacing him with an 8th inning guy might only save the team a net of 3.5M (and lock us up that way for a couple of years.)

Long post, but I’ll summarize. Valverde might not be worth 9M, but for this organization, a one-year contract holds value that we can’t ignore.

He gets the save, we win. He doesn’t, we don’t (barring a comeback win). In a way, save percentage is the only stat that really matters for a closer.

ERA, for a relief pitcher, has to be pretty much discarded, particularly for those that work partial innings. They’re often dealing with inherited runners, or they’re leaving runners on for other pitchers to deal with, and their ERA is askew as a result. WHIP is a better predictor of effectiveness in all but a closer. More runners tend to lead to more runs. The big exception, of course, is a guy that can’t keep the ball in the park. One hit is deadly;. Also, a ground ball pitcher, which is kinda rare in the Tiger system particularly in relief, can get away with more base runners, as they tend to be either doubled up or not advance as well on grounders.

As for Valverde’s option, if the decision had to be made today, I’d hope they pick it up. As much as I’d like two comp picks in the first or supplemental first rounds, I think the bullpen is soft enough as it is now without losing the guy that does his job better than any other reliever. The Tigers lead the league in save percentage, but are second worst in bullpen ERA. And, oh yeah, when taken as a whole, ERA is a more effective measure of either a team, a rotation, or a bullpen, than it is for an individual reliever. It’s the number of earned runs charged to the guys that are supposed to hold the line, and our guys aren’t getting it done. Replacing Valverde with another “serviceable’” reliever could give us a “serviceable” third place team.

Valverde isn’t as valuable as Al^2 this year because Valverde gets a clean slate in the 9th. Al^2 comes in in the bottom of the seventh with one out after walks the bases loaded.

I’ll take solid and reliable for $9 million.

It’s nice to see a well-researched fanpost taking all the numbers into account. Apologies if I missed a few, but it’s been a while since I’ve seen one like this.

However, I agree with the commenters above me when I say that I would like to see Valverde back next season. Of all the guys you mention in your post, the only one we could expect to replace Valverde with similar results is Heath Bell. I’ve already stated in previous threads that I don’t think he would come much cheaper than Valverde’s $9M option. He might save the team a couple mil, but in the end that little extra isn’t going to have a huge impact on Mike Illitch’s spending, IMO.

I agree with momo that we don’t currently have the pieces to replace Valverde from within. I think Benoit would be serviceable in the 9th inning, but the trickle-down effect is where there would be serious concern. I don’t know if Ryan Perry or AlAl are ready for the 8th inning role, especially after you consider how much AlAl has overperformed in the first half. Phil Coke could possibly be this guy, but would Leyland agree to this? Maybe Coke gets another shot in the rotation next year? (Hey, they ran Dontrelle Willis out there for multiple years; it’s not that far-fetched to think that Coke might get a second go.) Regardless, Valverde stabilizes the entire bullpen by locking things down in the 9th inning.

I think an underrated factor to consider in this matter is how damn entertaining Valverde is on the mound. He’s a character and a fan-favorite. There won’t be an Inge fangirl mutiny if he’s released, but I think a number of people would be disappointed. Would this affect attendance numbers? Probably not, but I think the Tigers brass still appreciates Valverde for his eccentricity.

Finally, there’s the loyalty factor. Shoot this down if you want to, but one thing Mike Illitch has proven to be during his reign in Detroit (with both the Tigers and Wings) is a stand-up guy who sticks by his veterans. Valverde has been anything but a bust so far, and I think the team will exercise his option whether we like it or not.

Again, great post. Hopefully Valverde goes 1-2-3 in his next outing and we can enjoy his dancing antics much more than in his last few appearances.

I don’t think we should pick up the option, but we should offer arbitration. It is harder to lose in that situation than in any other. If Valverde wants a multi-year deal then he has the option to go on the open market and try to get one, in which case the Tigers probably pick up 2 early draft picks (always nice). This would allow Benoit to move into the closer roll (which is what I think he was ultimately signed to do…) and allows the tigers to sign a set-up man at a lower cost than Valverde would cost. The hope would here is that Valverde is a Type A free agent and the tigers sign a Type B to get the most draft return as possible out of this. If they can’t find a Type B that fits the bill and have to sign a Type A then they should still come in at a cheaper total cost than if they kept Valverde.

On the other hand, if Valverde wants to hang around Detroit (because it is such a lovely town and all that…) then he can accept arbitration and would probably be awarded something in the 9 mil range regardless. Or, since DD always tries to avoid arbitration he might be able work out a multi-year deal at a slight discount on the yearly salary. We don’t lose anything either way, and we have the potential to reduce our yearly debt and get a reliable Papa Grande for an extra year.

Seems to me you just limit yourself too much by taking the safe route and exercising the option, especially since the risks are fairly low if you don’t and the rewards can be pretty good.

i’ll front page it some time today

As for whether we should pick up the option…first of all, I know embarrassingly little about the free agent and arbitration process, but if we could decline the offer and offer arbitration, I would do that. It seems unlike he would earn more than $9M and if he declines, we could sure use those extra draft picks (instead of giving them up for once) as I’m sure he’d be Class A.

I see you did your research. But, as we saw again today (7-16-2011), Valverde does much better in Save situation than in Non-Save situations. For the life of me, I can’t understand why Leyland can’t figure that out. As for your research, I think you have all of his appearances combined together (Save & Non-Save Situations), so this brings down his real worth as Just A Closer and turns him into just a relief pitcher. IMO

This year, in save situations, his ERA is .38. In non-save situations it is 6.19. This is hard to understand. A professional athlete should be doing the very best he can every time he steps on the field.

It looks like if it is not a save situation, he doesn’t get “in to” the game.

I find this unacceptable.