Detroit Tigers Rumors: Aaron Harang, Derek Lowe, Carlos Beltran updates

.. that a trade for Harang would be more for the sake of making a trade than to actually gain anything. If we’re going to give up any prospects, we need to go a bit bigger. I see a Washburn v2.0

If anyone’s talked about this yet so far, but what about acquiring Leo Nunez from the Marlins? He can help take some of the load off of Benoit for the 8th inning, allowing him a chance to catch his breath from doing a lot of the heavy lifting. He’d also be able to fill in for Papa G on days that he needs off.

Nunez has a 3.35 ERA (3.31 FIP). He has a 6.5% HR/FB ratio. He strands about 3/4 of his base runners. He’s a flyball pitcher, but that would play well in the “Grand Comerica Canyon.” His K/9% isn’t as good as Valverde (7.35 vs. 10.53 career) but his BB/9% is about 1-2 points lower any given season and about 1 point lower for his career. Since being given the Marlins closing job in ‘09, he’s been very solid.

I realize trading for him would probably cost a Furbush/Oliver/Ruffin type, plus filler. It would also be a bit of a luxury at this point rather than a need, but a back 3 in the pen of Benoit/Nunez/Valverde would be very, very good. He’s making $3.5 million this season, and is arb eligible in ’11 and will become a free agent in ’12. I believe I saw somewhere recently that many peg Nunez at about 7-8 million after arbitration this year. If we were able to sign him long term, we could possibly get a bit of a discount, letting us save 1-2 million versus resigning Valverde.

To me, an addition of Nunez in the bullpen, a lower quality starter like Harang or Guthrie and maybe some kind of small 3B upgrade (Dare I say, Mark Reynolds?) could be what the Tigers need to push them over the top in this division. It allows them to have the potential of a solid 1-5 (assuming Max and Rick right themselves and Penny can stay consistent.) It further shores up the bullpen this year and could give us our closer next year. Reynolds might not be awe inspiring, but anything’s better than Inge at this point.

(Sorry about the quality of my post deteriorating as I go on. I always have a hard time keeping my ideas going strong.)

About the difference in caliber between them all. I’m not very good with prospects by any means, but I’m trying to get better with that. I was just going for the point that it would take one of the bigger names in our farm to get him.

no apparent injuries in either case reported. Could be something’s up. Or not.

Love all the trade talk!!

However, that’s better than our current 5th starter, which is “$%^$”.

Dave Cameron had a take on Guthrie on a pretty short list of SP’s as a trade chip at the beginning of June. You could pretty much eliminate the others on that list for the Tigers for one reason or another.

FANGRAPHS LINK

My targets of those mentioned recently would be:

Jiminez
Kuroda
Guthrie
Lowe

I can’t rewarm up to Harang, though I wouldn’t blame DD for giving it a shot if that’s all he could get for a reasonable price. I just don’t have a good feeling that he’d translate to the AL very well.

coming to Detroit you HAVE to do it 100 times out of 100. It’s not a hard question. That would lock your starting three up for the next three years. It isn’t even a question in my book….

1. The players most likely to be traded by sellers (non contenders) are those with expiring contracts after this season that should not be offered arbitration after this season. In such cases, the selling club has nothing to gain by keeping the player, and will be off the hook for his salary if they can dump them. Example: Beltran

2. Next most likely are those players on non contenders that are about to get expensive as they head to arbitration this winter. Their departure is inevitable, although the club is a bit less motivated to move them because they could as easily trade them in the winter, when there are more buyers. They only deal them if the pennant fever overcomes and pressures a buyer into giving up a more lucrative package. Example: Guthrie

3. Other clubs may be still contending, but have a need and have depth at a premium position. They won’t deal within the division but will be looking for a very nice return. There could also be a salary issue where the club is looking to move up a younger prospect, and the player being sold has zero to one years remaining. Examples: Edwin Jackson, Lowe.

4. Non contenders are under less pressure to act by the deadline unless there is a salary that they really would like to dump. Even then, they may have a player that could clear waivers or be picked up on waivers, such as an Aubrey Huff in 09. In these cases, the seller can sell now or sell later, the only advantage being that they save some money the rest of this year. They’re trying to take advantage of the desperation of the buyer(s). If there is more than one club interested (which is always the case with even a decent SP) they can command a higher package in return. Example: Harang, Heath Bell, Nunez

TIGERS: The Tigers need starting pitching. That much is obvious. They’re also in “win now” mode. I think the Sizemore deal makes that evident, if it wasn’t already clear. If DD’s job is really on the line here, as it appears to be, then he is certainly not beyond selling the farm at the expense of the future to save his own arse. A good SP will cost a good prospect. In that regard, DD is at a severe disadvantage. Prospects have to be viewed on a national scale, not a club scale. The Tigers have two blue chippers in Turner and Castellanos. I would not deal them, barring a blockbuster, but DD might.

Down the list, there are the “near major league ready” prospects. Oliver was once in this category and probably still is, depending on the scout’s view. He’s worth more than a supplemental first round pick, maybe about as much as a No. 1 pick. So, if you can get a rental that will bring a comp pick with him, his rental value makes the deal worthwhile, IMO. If it’s a rental that has no comp pick, you get two months for potentially six years of club control of a pitcher with No. 3 projection, No. 2 upside in a stretch. Add another year of an average SP, with compensation at the end of 2012, and the deal looks much more attractive.

But if all you get is an average pitcher, that guarantees nothing by itself. The Tigers have lacked a No. 2, a no. 3 and a No. 5 all year, by my reasoning. Max and Rick have not stepped up. Get a Kuroda and we need one of them to still step up. Get a Guthrie and we need one of them to step up big time. Get a Ubaldo and we can muddle along with them still being inconsistent but they still need to give us quality starts most games.

The Tigers cast their lot last winter. When DD (stupidly) declared “we’re happy with our top four” and that included Phil Coke, I was all over his case, along with many others on here and around Tigerdom. When he added Penny, that helped, but pretending that Coke was a sure thing, with Oliver being the only real plan B, was a gamble. DD lost that gamble, and now he is back to what he always wants to avoid. Paying for a starting pitcher when the price tag is highest.

might be a pipe dream, but if- and it’s a big IF- he would waive his NTC, he probably wants to be compensated. If that simply means extending him another year or two, that’s even better, He is reasonably priced at $ 8 mil per year, with a $ 4 mil deferred bonus. Adding years, IMO, not only isn’t a problem, but would be essential to make it worthwhile to give up any good prospects. It all goes back to the big IF with Kuroda, and then there’s the WTF- as in WTF would McCourt want, because it clearly has nothing to do with the good of the Dodgers.

Oh’ do I long for the days when every pitcher to whom the Tigers were linked was not immediately blogified as “the next Jerrod Washburn” regardless of whether they present any actual comparison.