Smoltz's Law

On discussion boards of the old pre-Web Internet, there was a concept called Godwin's Law: "As an online discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Nazis or Hitler approaches 1." In other words, any Internet argument will eventually get so overheated that somebody will pull out the ultimate nuclear weapon of evil -- the Nazis and the Holocaust -- and drag them into the argument to try to make their point.

The traditional corollary was that the first person to reference the Nazis was admitting that they had lost the debate, since any argument that needed to depend on an analogy to a unique event was fatally flawed. [1]

I'd like to propose a version of this for Tigers fans, especially during trading season. Call it Smoltz's Law: "As a discussion regarding a potential trade by the Detroit Tigers grows longer, the probability of a comparison to the Smoltz/Alexander trade approaches 1."

Like the Nazis, the Smoltz/Alexander trade was a one-time, unique situation that doesn't lend itself to any meaningful analogies. [2] Tiger fans need to stop comparing any potential trade of a prospect for a proven player to it. [3]

The famous August 1987 trade of John Smoltz to the Atlanta Braves for Doyle Alexander is unique not just for the insanity it provokes among Tigers fans, but also for the inconceivable results for both teams. As such, it's more likely to confuse than clarify any discussion of contemporary trades in which it's raised.

Let's look at the two players involved:

Smoltz was a 20-year-old, 22nd-round pick with a 5.68 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP in AA ball and a season and a half in the minors when the Tigers traded him to the Braves for Alexander. He wasn't the Braves' first target -- they just basically wanted a decent pitching prospect.

Alexander was nothing special, either. By the time he got to Detroit, he had pitched for the Dodgers, Orioles, Yankees, Rangers, Braves, Giants, Yankees (again), Jays and had come back to the Braves over the course of 17 seasons. He was, with some variations, a 3.5 to 4.0 ERA guy everywhere he'd been. In Atlanta, he had a 4.13 ERA (105 ERA+) and a 1.21 WHIP in the first half of 1987. He was a serviceable 35-year-old journeyman.

The Tigers needed another starter. The Braves were in rebuilding mode and picking up young pitching. The trade made sense to both teams but wasn't huge news.

Lightning then proceeded to strike twice. Once it hit immediately, and once it hit over the course of a career.

Something happened to Doyle Alexander, and he had one of the best half-seasons in the history of the Detroit Tigers. He went 9-0 with a 1.53 ERA (278 ERA+), more than 2 ERA points better than his career average and a point better than his second-best season.

If he'd pitched anywhere close to his career averages -- or even how he'd pitched in the first half of the season -- the Tigers would have lost the pennant to the Jays instead of beating them by two games and this trade would be a simple case of a rental by a desperate front office in a pennant race that turned out badly because the prospect was undervalued. It's hard to explain just how incredibly unlikely the production the Tigers got out of Alexander that season was -- there was nothing whatsoever in Alexander's history or future that would imply that he was capable of that kind of production. (He also lost the magic in that postseason, hanging up a 10.00 series ERA and getting pulled in the 2nd inning of the deciding game.) It was like going fishing for bass in the Detroit River and catching a shark. Or a mermaid. Or Jimmy Hoffa.

The next season, Alexander would post a 4.32 ERA (87 ERA+) over 34 starts. (He went to his only All-Star game, but that was the baseball equivalent of Scorsese getting his Oscar for "The Departed.")[4] That same season, Smoltz was called up and started 12 games for the woeful Braves, going 2-7 with a 5.67 ERA (67 ERA+).

The lightning then struck again. [5] 1989 would become Smoltz's first All-Star season, and he'd have had many more than the 8 he did if there weren't rules against all of the pitchers on the NL All-Star team coming from Atlanta.

Don't forget, though, that what happened with Smoltz is possibly even more unlikely than what happened with Alexander. Just as there was no way to predict that Alexander would have a historic and wildly unlikely half-season, there was also no way to predict that Smoltz would become arguably the most accomplished pitcher ever to come out of the Detroit Tigers farm system. Calling him the "best" gets tricky, but he's probably top 3 with Newhouser and Lolich over the course of his  21-year, probable Hall of Fame career. Again, there was absolutely nothing  in Smoltz's prior performance to suggest that he was going to turn out the way he did. There's no way to go back to his stats and point at what the Tigers "should" have seen. He was selected in the bowels of the draft as the 574th player taken because he was a decent high school and college pitcher from Michigan who hadn't been taken yet. Every piece of statistical evidence and historic understanding of pitchers was telling the Tigers, and rightfully so, that this was a kid who more likely than not would never crack an MLB roster.

So, what does this mean for Smoltz's Law? An analogy or simile is intended to make something easier to understand by comparing it to something that is already understood. However, analogies that attempt to draw meaning from situations that are not comparable actually inhibit a correct understanding. Just as Godwin's Law and its corollaries argue that an analogy to the unique historic situation of Hitler, the Nazis and the Holocaust invalidates any argument that relies on an analogy to them for support, I argue that, in our own trivial and non-genocidal way, that we're invalidating any trade deadline argument in which John Smoltz and Doyle Alexander make an appearance. Unless you really think that one of the proposed players in the trade is either going to have one of the most statistically-unlikely seasons ever in the history of the franchise, or the other one will someday be considered one of the best pitchers in the history of the game...find another example.

[1] - Save your Stalin/Mao/Pol Pot/Andrew Jackson/etc. arguments for other forums. I didn't come up with it, Mike Godwin did.

[2] - Save your hate mail. It's a joke. No, I am not actually comparing a baseball trade to 6 million dead and a world plunged into war. Who do you think I am, George Will?

[3] - This means you, everybody going nuts over possibly trading Turner, Oliver, Strieby, etc. for proven major league pitching.

[4] - He was robbed at least 4 times. Raging Bull, Goodfellas, Gangs of New York, Aviator.

[5] - Quite possibly the only time that Leo Mazzone has ever been compared to lightning.