Detroit Tigers Rumors: James Shields Now On the Market?
by Rob Rogacki on Jul 20, 2011 10:05 AM EDT
in Detroit Tigers rumors
Email
Print
This one might be a stretch, but according to MLB Trade Rumors Tampa Bay Rays righty James Shields is available "for the right price." This report stems from a Buster Olney tweet reporting that the Rays were scouting minor leaguers in the Cincinnati Reds' system earlier this week.
Shields has an unimpressive 8-8 record in 2011, but as we all know, wins and losses don't tell the whole story. In just under 150 innings this year (which already tells you something about his durability), Shields has a 2.60 ERA and 1.002 WHIP. He has an FIP of 3.17 and an xFIP of 2.91, so while he might be a candidate for some regression, he's not going to fall off the charts a la Jarrod Washburn.
Looking deeper into the stats archive (a.k.a. Fangraphs), Shields is leaving almost 80% of runners on base, a fair bit higher than his career average of 72%. His ground ball rate and home run/fly ball ratio are both in line with his career averages.
If you're looking for an "innings eater," you won't do much better than Shields. He's pitched an incredible seven complete games this season, explaining why he's already racked up 150 innings this year. He has thrown at least 215 innings in each of the past four seasons and is on pace to shatter that mark in 2011.
This is the last guaranteed year of Shields' contract, but he has team options for each of the next three seasons. They aren't as cheap as Ubaldo Jimenez's absurd contract numbers, but a $12M option in 2014 is pennies on the dollar for the type of money that Shields could command on the open market (not to mention cheaper than Derek Lowe's deal next season).
Like Ubaldo Jimenez, Shields is probably going to command a king's ransom of prospects in return. If the Tigers are interested in making a serious offer, you would have to expect that this begins with Jacob Turner. One thing the club has going for them is that the Rays are highly unlikely to trade Shields within the division, taking the Yankees and Red Sox out of the running.
102 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
If we can get him
for Raburn, Inge and Iorg then what are we waiting for? If TB is really stubborn, throw in Omir Santos.
/pre-emptive trolling.
"Some guy told me I should walk with the Lord. I'd rather walk with the bases loaded" Ken Singleton
and if they're really, really stubborn.....
sweeten the deal and keep Inge.
I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!
by Tigerdog1 on Jul 20, 2011 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions 6 recs
this is another one i would not mind
Trading Turner and whoever else for. The kid is good. Ugh, we need a true number two behind J.V.
by BeardedPlayoffJesus19 on Jul 20, 2011 10:27 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Shields is a stud
One of the best pitchers in the league this year. I’d rank him ahead of Ubaldo, given the fact that he is AL proven, hasn’t had the kind of recent injury history, is having a much better season, and has another year left under “club control”.
I’d even part with Turner, one of only two “untouchables” to get Shields. Turner looks like a better than even shot at being a very solid major league starter, with top of the rotation upside and maybe top of the rotation probability, although he is still young. Figure a season of on the job training, a season of growth and improvement, and four seasons of studliness. Maybe better than that scenario, but that’s reasonable value from even a top prospect. Shields gives us three seasons of very likely top of the rotation performance, at a cost that is more, but not that much more than 3- 4 years of arbitration contracts for JT. Question is how much more than Turner would this cost?
I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!
Shields' team options are as follows
$7M in 2012
$9M in 2013
$12M in 2014
Definitely not bad for a bona fide #2 starter (though his numbers this year are more 1b to Verlander’s 1a).
by Rob Rogacki on Jul 20, 2011 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions
7 over 0.500 and playing for next year...
The AL East is something, eh?
You know I'm right about this.
by HighOPS on Jul 20, 2011 10:33 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
No kidding
If we ever got moved back into the East I think I’d have to give up being a baseball fan. The Rays have been a rare exception the last couple of years but otherwise if you’re not the Yankees or Red Sox there’s no point in even showing up. I wish whatever realignment happens would just make those two teams their own division and not let the loser get the wild card spot. But that’s about as likely as JV going 0-12 the rest of the year.
give the rays whatever they want!
This would put the tigers over the top, and give us on paper the best 1-2-3 punch for pitching in a playoff series ( maybe not the WS )
Want
Shields is the only name I’ve heard in trade rumors that would be worth emptying the farm system for. On some teams he’d be considered the ace of the staff and anyone (except maybe the Phillies) would consider him grade A #2 starter material.
I love how a guy has a career year and everyone suggests emptying the farm for him
I was leading the bandwagon for acquiring the dude in the offseason, but right now the price simply isn’t going to be right.
Would anyone have emptied the farm for Shields before this season began?
by ozymandius1024 on Jul 20, 2011 11:18 AM EDT reply actions
Is trading turner "emptying the farm"
Oh. I guess it is!
I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!
We might be able to give up one of our 4th OF types as well
It worked out for both sides last time.
by Rob Rogacki on Jul 20, 2011 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions
Actually, Turner and Castellanos would be a true "emptying"
I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!
I was just thinking that they worked magic with Joyce last time
Maybe a Dirks or Wells could provide the same type of performance for them without giving up Castellanos (who is blocked by Longoria, FWIW).
by Rob Rogacki on Jul 20, 2011 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions
What do you give the farm system that has everything?
I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!
Probably a power hitting 1st baseman
Or something along those lines. It’s gotta be rough running Casey Kotchman out there every day.
Good god, I just looked at his line this year. Someone’s looking to get paid the Adrian Beltre way.
by ozymandius1024 on Jul 20, 2011 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions
That's why it's hard to figure out what they would want
I threw Turner’s name in there, but they have like 4 of him already.
by Rob Rogacki on Jul 20, 2011 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Sure
I would’ve. But that’s more a testament to how weak I think our farm system is than commentary on what I think of Shields. If we had better players I’d be in favor of holding, but seeing as we have such a weak crop of prospects then giving up the best we have for a good #2 guy in his prime seems like a low risk, high reward situation to me. Who knows what we’ll get out of Turner or Oliver in the long run? But Shields is all but guaranteed to give us 200+ innings a year at the peak of his career if we keep him for a few years.
Agreed
His career ERA is 4.04, and that’s with this amazing season he’s having. I dont know much about him, so maybe his stats are very misleading, but I wouldn’t give up much for this guy.
"Goaltending is a normal job, sure. How would you like it in your job if every time you made a small mistake, a red light went on over your desk and 15,000 people stood up and yelled at you."
-Jacques Plante
by DetroitSports on Jul 20, 2011 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions
Did you read the post?
His FIP and xFIP are in line with his excellent season and there aren’t any red flags for regression the rest of the way. He’s in his 5th full big league season, so this seems more like a guy putting it all together than having an un-repeatable career year.
by Rob Rogacki on Jul 20, 2011 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Exactly
I would be OK with losing Turner if Ubaldo came to town. I’m not sure I’d be overjoyed to lose him for Shields. Unless it was pretty much straight up.
DetroitJockCity.com
by Matt Snyder on Jul 20, 2011 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions
I would have traded Turner for Shields before the season
The reason why it didn’t really come up is because no one thought Shields was on the market.
by Rob Rogacki on Jul 20, 2011 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions
It really depends on what your view of Jacob Turner is
If you don’t think he’s going to turn out to be a front-line type of pitcher, then you’d probably package him with Oliver and whoever else, and call it a day.
I don’t think this is like the situation a couple of years ago with Roy Halladay. At that point, Tigers fans were balking at the inclusion of someone like Rick Porcello because at his ceiling, Porcello was supposed to be an amazing/cost-controlled front line pitcher. At the time, I saw it like the Cabrera trade, you’ve got a prospect who, at his ceiling, probably wouldn’t be as good as the guy the Detroit would be getting in return. When you’ve got the opportunity to get a generational or superstar kind of guy, and you’re going for broke to win a title, then you empty the farm.
In my opinion, James Shields is not that kind of guy, and I do think that Jacob Turner could do what Shield has done (i.e 2.5 to 3.0 WAR a year or so, at a rate that’s a hell of a lot lower than 12 mil per). Like I said above, the time to trade for Shields was in the offseason, when Andy Oliver and a couple/few other prospects might’ve gotten a deal done.
by ozymandius1024 on Jul 20, 2011 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions
Porcello= Turner?
I think that’s probably a fair comparison, not in terms of the individual pitchers, but in terms of prospect values.
I do think that prospects that make the top ten list of Tiger prospects are very much over valued in Tigerdom. I can’t understand the reluctance to trade a prospect for a player that is equal to 90% or so of what we hope that prospect to become. Few of these prospects, even the ones that turn out to be above average players, step right in and give us six years of better than average production. Those two cheap years usually yield lesser performance before they start to get expensive as well.
I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!
Most of my issue is that I don't think it'd just be Turner
And I don’t think that what Shields is doing this year is what he’s going to be doing going forward. I’m not assuming Turner is going to do what Shields is doing this year either, moreso what Shields has done in his typical seasons.
It wouldn’t be a travesty if it was Turner/Shields straight up because of Shields reasonable contract going forward, but I’d rather just wait and see with it, because I think the Rays are looking to cash in right now and sell insanely high on James (as they should be).
by ozymandius1024 on Jul 20, 2011 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions
I think you are right, but I don't think beyond JT and Castellanos there is much to be concerned about
Andy Oliver is in sort of a middle area depending what you think of his chances (not his stuff- the probability)
I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!
it'd be nice if we could kick in, say... a Scott Sizemore?
No longer the Founder, President and CEO of the Ryan Raburn Fan Club
Man, he's proving to be an improvement over Brad Thomas.
That’s not saying much.
I have a grand idea: let's win a game.
You would be an improvement over Brad Thomas
"Aside from the stuff I haven’t been diagnosed for yet, I don’t have a problem."- Phil Coke
Contributor, Bless You Boys
by David Tokarz on Jul 20, 2011 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Exactly
"Aside from the stuff I haven’t been diagnosed for yet, I don’t have a problem."- Phil Coke
Contributor, Bless You Boys
by David Tokarz on Jul 20, 2011 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Thank you
We’d pay out the @$$ for someone having a career year.
"Aside from the stuff I haven’t been diagnosed for yet, I don’t have a problem."- Phil Coke
Contributor, Bless You Boys
by David Tokarz on Jul 20, 2011 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Even if it is a career year, he's a stud.
His ERA probably won’t stay quite this low, but his xFIP has never been above 4. His ERA last year was ridiculously inflated (68% strand rate, .341 BABIP). I think the Rays are just dangling him to see if someone overpays though (like what the Rockies are doing). It seems like a terrible idea to move their very solid #2 when they have a young team that will easily compete with the Yankees and Red Sox in his contract’s timeframe. If they’re even selling, it’s almost certainly Upton.
by thepartybird on Jul 20, 2011 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions
But
Keep in mind Jimenez might not transition well to the AL. Shields meanwhile has been throwing a disproportionately high number of innings against the Yanks and BoSox. I imagine his numbers would only improve in the AL Central.
Coors field isn't exactly a pitcher's park
I get that the AL East is probably the highest run environment in baseball, but is it that much harder than playing in Denver?
DetroitJockCity.com
by Matt Snyder on Jul 20, 2011 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions
If anything, I'd give the edge to Jimenez in this regard
Keep in mind that pitches don’t break as far in the thinner air at Coors. If you don’t believe this, check out Jimenez’s home/road splits. His road numbers are in line with what Shields is doing this year.
by Rob Rogacki on Jul 20, 2011 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions
I think the NL to AL factor outweighs the Coors factor
Ubaldo’s three year splits are more even.
I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!
I would love to get Shields
Even if we gave up Turner for him, but I agree, it needs to be about straight up, with maybe a lesser-known guy going as well. We dont need to give up anybody else of great value, because that would not be worth it at all
Here's a name worthy of trading turner for
Young, a legit #1 on a few staffs, and a proven workhorse. This is the type of guy we need to put right behind verlander.
It’s a bit of a pipedream, but the Rays are the type of organization that would salivate over Turner and Oliver in their farm system.
Charlie Sheen Night at CoPa: everyone has their Tiger Blood and Coke is a free mixer.
I agree but I think it would take 3 of our best prospects.
Oliver, Turner, and either of our young 3B. I would do it.
One good thing about the Rays is that because of the way they operate I don’t think they would want Porcello as he would be due for arbitration soon.
Obviously it depends on what you project the prospects to do in the majors
but that seems like WAY too much for me. Turner and a mediocre A-baller might be my top offer for Shields (if they insisted on Turner).
DetroitJockCity.com
by Matt Snyder on Jul 20, 2011 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions
The odds are against anyone but a blue chipper being above league average
for a sustained period of time. Of course, many propsects will break through, and a couple hundred of them will be above average (say 200 above, 200 avg, 200 that “make it” but just hang on and disappear after a short stay). Of those 200, at least half come from top 100 prospect lists at some point. I’m guesstimating here, but if you look at any given draft about five years ago or so, there’s a better than even shot of a first rounder “making it” and less than even in second and lower rounds. The fall off is pretty sharp. The Tigers have two of them in Turner and Castellanos. They have others that have broken through already and are in the majors.
I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!
Turner and Oliver should do the trick
and if not, tossing in Cale lorg would make it happen. All three of them are exactly what that farm system likes and while lorg has struggled in the minors,i have a feelin tampa would have the know-how to turn his tools into big league stuff.
I agree thinking that turner for shields straight up would be nice, but that is way overvalueing our guy and way undervaluing shields.
Charlie Sheen Night at CoPa: everyone has their Tiger Blood and Coke is a free mixer.
Not sure it's overvalueing
Shields’ contract has somewhere in the neighborhood of $25-33M of surplus value over the next 3.5 years (that’s pegging him beween 3.5 and 4 WAR per year).
If Turner can be a 2 WAR per year player from 2012-2014, he’ll have about $23M in surplus value. And then he’ll have three arbitration years where his production comes at a discount. I think team-controlled contract values are pretty similar here even if Jacob is only ever league average. Sure, he might not ever be that good, but he could be even better.
If he can become a 3 or 4 WAR player, he’d blow Shield’s contract out of the water. So the Tigers would be trading for wins now against the potential for lots of wins later. Not an unfair trade. Maybe it is in the Tigers favor, but not enough that they should demand another (relatively) quality prospect like Oliver.
DetroitJockCity.com
by Matt Snyder on Jul 20, 2011 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions
The latest rumor
rather than starting a new thread, I’ll just post it here….
comes from the Chicago Tribune writer Phil Rogers….
Carlos Zambrano, Aramis Ramirez and cash for Brandon Inge and Andy Oliver.
Zambrano: 08:$15M, 09:$17.75M, 10:$17.875M, 11:$17.875M, 12:$18M,
2013:$19.25M vesting player option
full no-trade clause
4.78 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, Headcase tantrums, no thanks. Garza, on the other hand, I’d be interested in.
-——————————————————————-
Ramirez: 07:$8M, 08:$14M, 09:$15.65M, 10:$15.75M, 11:$14.6M player option, 12:$16M club option ($2M buyout)
2011 splits: .302 .346 .514 .860 17 HR/ 58 RBI
3 year splits: .278 .353 .494 .847 67 HR/ 259 RBI
Chances are, that he’d insist on that option being picked up to waive his NTC.
Okay, but they have to take Inge as part of the deal. Tell Brandon that he’s benched anyway and he’ll swallow the trade.
I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!
Phil Rogers is a moron
Does he realize that he just threw multiple no-trade clauses into a deal?
by Rob Rogacki on Jul 20, 2011 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions
and Ramirez has already said he won't waive his
he might think about waiving it in August, but he won’t waive it right now
by Kurt Mensching on Jul 20, 2011 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions
plus he'd want the option dropped, not taken
by Kurt Mensching on Jul 20, 2011 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Getting traded may be the only way that 16 mil club option is picked up
I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!
Ramirez's agent says he doesn't want the option picked up
Kinzer, however, indicated that Ramirez would want his option dropped as a condition of the trade, a stipulation that would enable him to become a free agent at the end of the season.
http://www.yardbarker.com/blog/mlbbuzz/how_the_cubs_could_trade_ramirez/5598091
by Kurt Mensching on Jul 20, 2011 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions
That makes sense, too
Aramis is having a good year and could surely score a multi year deal worth more than 16 mil. Probably not like his current deal, but if he plays one more year, his production may fall off and his value plummets.
As it stands, he has spent his player option last year and the next one is out of his control. If he is strictly a rental, that impacts his value as well.
In August, he’d have to clear special waivers before being traded, and that goes first through the NL then the AL, in reverse order of standings.
I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!
Inge would be on a plane before DD hung up the phone.
Love it. Unfortunately won’t happen. Thanks for passing it along.
DetroitJockCity.com
by Matt Snyder on Jul 20, 2011 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions
I want nothing to do Zambrano
and that albatross of a contract. Ramirez I could live with assuming it doesn’t cost us any of our top prospects (which probably means it won’t happen unless the Cubs are desperate, stupid, or both).
by Mark in Chicago on Jul 20, 2011 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions
FWIW-
I think this one is just pure media speculation. The guy has to write about something, and the on field stuff isn’t too interesting there on the north side. Many Cubs fans want rid of Zambrano like Tiger fans want rid of Inge, albeit for different reasons. I’m not sure that DD is sold on the need for a 3B, either.
I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!
What about Turner and Wells
for Gio Gonzalez? Oakland needs a bat badly, they have excess pitching too.
Turner is waaay too much to give up for Gio.
and you say they need a bat….and you bring up Wells name? I just don’t understand your point.
"i think it will be mostly feast the rest of the year,"
Rosterbating makes you go weird sighted.
You need to take your hand off the fantasy trades (especially since this one is awful).
I have a grand idea: let's win a game.
James Shields would be great but,
would anyone be interested in expanding the trade to include some of Tampa Bay’s other players such as B.J. Upton and Ben Zobrist?
If there is not a spot for Beltran on the team, theres not room for Upton
and i dont believe he is worth moving back to the infield
Zobrist would be nice
But I think the organization is pretty loyal to Guillen right now. When he gets injured in a week, we’ll talk. And hello no to Upton.
Now watch it
ive got all my good luck and positive ju-ju going all for his health…
Let’s keep some positive vibes here with that guy…
Charlie Sheen Night at CoPa: everyone has their Tiger Blood and Coke is a free mixer.
this is want the tighers should offer for james shields if they want to macke adeal penny out of the bullpen strirby oliver and raybrurn or wells and you might have adeal
by kwfords on Jul 20, 2011 1:43 PM EDT reply actions 3 recs
Seriously
I’m not usually one to grammar or spelling flame people,1 but if I have to read your comment three times to figure out what you’re saying and still not be quite sure that I’m understanding you correctly, you’re doing it wrong.
Plus, it’s “Tigers.” We’re not asking you to spell “autochthonous” or “tetrachlorotoluene” or “pseudopseudohypoparathyroidism” or something like that.
1 – Unless they pay me to. Then, it’s $135/hour.
Rec'd
I figure if one of your comments turns green, you might go away.
"i think it will be mostly feast the rest of the year,"
It's the "h" in Tigers that always gets me.
All of his posts have it, so it isn’t just a keyboard typo slip.
"i think it will be mostly feast the rest of the year,"
I'm just saying
Oliver/Strieby/Wells isn’t a bad package. The Penny part confused me, but maybe he was trying to say Perry?
Trading Block?
Remember what happen in 2006-2011, Granderson and polanco was trading bad move by Dave Dombowski also, during the 5 year stretch again comes Juijens he was trading another bad move by Dave Dombowski, again Erin Jackson was trading another move bad move, so ,the being point is wake up Dave before you making a same mistakes pervious Dave you did learn anything? Now, I say, wait, wait wait because we know for sure Jacob Turner will be good for the tigers in future, just develop him thats takes time,furthermore,Shields altho, this year he has post though the 7innings what about next year?Baseball is funny that way ok I’m just saying. If I were a GM I would hangon to what I have going thats my angle so as a fan same thing applies!
What about
trading Matt Joyce for bubkis that was not good too he’s an all star and Dave Dombowski should know better he should know as a GM talent that is what he gets paid for and he doesn’t learn he doesnt learn i tell ya’ and I don’t wanna bring up washburn becuase that was dumb too and Dave Dombowski just doenst learn.
"i think it will be mostly feast the rest of the year,"
Googling "tighers" produces
“why not govt send all tighers to forest instead to keeping zoo?”
which is similar to many trade proposals we’ve heard here recently.
Google Jhonny Peralta and you get "Tighers".
Just kidding.
by Keith-Allen on Jul 20, 2011 2:34 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I fogot about Matt Joyce excellent player with power oh well.Let’s see,if the tigers still have on the roster; Juijen,Jackson,Granderson,Joyce,Polanco we where would the tigers be right now?I would say without a doubt they would world camps by now! not to mention the up coming young arm with Jacob Turner, WOW !
Granderson is having a good season because he hits in NY.
Joyce got us Jackson, who gave us an incredible 09, but got us (along with Grandy) Jackson, Coke, Scherzer, and Schlereth. JURRJENS would help this team now, as would Polanco, but it was believed that he would have an injury-ridden career, and Scott Sizemore would be a great replacement for Polly. Jurrjens was a bad move, but nobody really could tell that at the time. hindsight is 20/20.
Grandy
has more homers on road then he does at Yankee Stadium
by Rip City Bingo on Jul 20, 2011 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Grandy swing change?
They fixed his swing last July, Don’t know if Lloyd would have ever done that.
I disagree
where is he plays the same guy will show whether be NY, DET ect. Granderson vs Jackson; first Granderson has played 4 or 5 in the league and this years totals are as follows- .271, 25,68,84,18 vs Jackson has played 1 1/2 still very young in the league and this years total as follows- .247, 4,23,45,15 so, both guys have range and very excellent defensive players, one is a power hitter ,one is just starting out point both are good players, but, jackson like granderson will be their soon enough I think, wow, graddy,aj in the same club flip-floppy between LF and CF what a combination for the tigher but one gone and another is remaining….Ben you think it is a trading off ? vs Granderson/Jackson?
YOU"RE BUSTED!
You confused your idiot-persona trolls! It is kwfords who uses the term “tighers” not alklyne65!
"i think it will be mostly feast the rest of the year,"
World camps!
woo-hoo! (wait, is that good or bad?)
by Mark in Chicago on Jul 20, 2011 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Bless You Boys
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Keeping good company: Albert Pujols becomes fourth-youngest player to hit 450 home runs
- Giancarlo Stanton misses cutoff man, and Logan Morrison is thankful he did (Video)
- Snoop Dogg delivers memorable first pitch at U.S. Cellular Field
- The Juice: Mesoraco’s grand slam helps Reds complete four-game sweep of Braves
- Please hold: Indians’ Joe Smith jumps the gun on relief appearance
