Magglio Ordonez must be benched
by Kurt Mensching on Aug 15, 2011 12:01 PM EDT
in Detroit Tigers Analysis
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PrintAfter struggling to begin the season due to an ankle injury suffered in 2010, Magglio Ordonez hit the disabled list in May. About a month later, he returned to the team. At that point, I cautioned fans not to look too closely at his season statistics, because it would take awhile to dig out from the hole Ordonez had dug. Give Ordonez a little time to hit like his former self, I said.
It's been a few months now, and Ordonez has not improved. In fact for the past two weeks his stats are actually worse than they were to begin the season. The past month is only slightly better.
First 26 games: .172 average, .226 on-base percentage, .232 slugging average.
Last 26 games: .235 average, .264 on-base percentage, .266 slugging average
Another way of saying the last 26 games is "after the all-star break" by the way. He has two doubles, one home run and five walks. He's also grounded into four double plays in 106 plate appearances. In his first 26 games, he had three doubles, one home run and seven walks.Oh, and he hit into four double plays in 186 plate appearances.
It's clear Ordonez has failed to recapture his former abilities and there is no reason to believe he will in the final six weeks. Yet, manager Jim Leyland happily pencils Ordonez into the three-spot in the lineup day-in and day-out. He has batted third in 24 of the 27 games since the break.
I understand the desire for loyalty. Ordonez was a very important part of the Tigers' turnaround. He hit the home-run heard 'round Michigan in October of 2006. He's a popular player with fans and teammates alike. For all those reasons, I am not calling for him to be designated for assignment. I'd hate to see the story end that way.
But allowing some sort of loyalty to bring down the efforts of 24 other players, countless coaches, team executives and scouts, and the hopes of millions of fans, is beyond ridiculous. Writing Ordonez into the lineup's three-spot daily for any other reason than loyalty borders between insane and stupid. The number three hitter should be the best batter on the team. In Detroit, it's the worst.
Using a sabermetric stat, Ordonez's wRC+ -- weighted runs created adjusted to an average of 100 -- is 58. That puts him above Guillen (51), Brandon Inge (33) and Omir Santos (2), and below every other position player.
Leyland, for his part, tells the media he is not worried about Ordonez. He told Chris Iott of MLive:
"We’ve got a nice complement of players, so I think we’re fine. Magglio’s throwing in his hits. I think there’s certain type pitchers I’ll rest him against and certain type of pitchers I’ll play him against.
"I expect him to contribute. And, yes, I still think he’s capable of doing that."
Sorry Jim, but Ordonez has showed this season that is simply not true. He needs to be rested against most pitchers. True, he had a two-hit game on Saturday and helped kick off the sixth-inning comeback against the Orioles. He also went 1-for-5 on Friday and 0-for-5 on Sunday (seeing just 10 pitches total.) His batting average over the last 7 days is .143 with .136 OBP and .190 slugging.
Anyone in the front office reading this? Tell Leyland to stop it. Like right now. He is costing the team in a tight division race. Tell him to get Ordonez out of his lineups right now.
Start Ryan Raburn in the outfield daily -- hey at least it keeps him out of the infield. Bring up Ben Guez or Clete Thomas from the Mud Hens. At this point, I don't care how you do it. Just please, get Ordonez out of the lineup. He's a shell of his former self, it's sad to watch and it only hurts the team to keep playing him.
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Loyalty...?
Do you think there’s much of that (loyalty) involved when someone bilks a team, of which I’ve been a fan for almost 40 years, for $18mil a year, not this year odviously, but that last couple, where he’s turned in about a league minimum performance at best. Not sure why he was resigned honestly & sure wish it was him instead of Casper Wells we got rid of…I look down & see a guy I watched clinch the 84 penant coachin 1st, a heck of 3rd basemen, I bet he’d still play 3b pretty good, that’s where my loyalty & nowadays it’s all about “what have you done for me lately?”
You mean like last year, when he had 2.6 WAR in like a half season?
He should be benched this year, but you’re out of your mind if you think he was “league minimum” last year.
by thepartybird on Aug 15, 2011 8:00 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Ohhh Mags
thanks for the walk-off to get us to the Series in 06. I won’t ever forget it as long as I live. that said, the time has come to move on… and I agree, that time is now.
get my boy Raburn in there.
No longer the Founder, President and CEO of the Ryan Raburn Fan Club
Its kinda sad...
like watching Draper, Maltby, McCarty, and Yzerman in their last seasons. You can see a glimps of what they used to be, but they just can’t do it at the same level. I see the same thing with Guillen. Both of them need to fade into the background gracefully and accept that they can’t do it anymore. Every time I see Guillen at 2nd, I wonder what his next injury will be. I have a hard time watching Magglio run the bases. He has Sean Casey speed and runs like he has two broken ankles with bad knees. I have sympathy pains for him. Hang em up, please!
by Detroitfantc on Aug 15, 2011 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions
If Raburn to the outfield is the solution
Then Maggs just has to outhit Danny Worth/Ramon Santiago at second.
(I’m in Rhymes denial because I can’t stand to see another ball backhanded that he should get in front of.)
You know I'm right about this.
Of course what I mean is
Raburn at second plus Maggs in outfiled should be compared to
xxx at second and Raburn in outfield
You know I'm right about this.
I'd rather see Rhymes booting balls at second than Raburn
And I don’t think that Rhymes is a terrible fielder. He’s got a negative UZR over his time in the Show, but it’s only like a cumulative -1 or so, nothing too terribly bad. (Worth’s got a negative UZR this season as well, by the way.)1
Among other things, Rhymes has that rarest of things for a Tiger — speed on the basepaths. He’s stolen 12 bases for Toledo this year (and one for the Tigers), while the Tigers have combined for a grand total of 39 SBs. When Brennan Boesch is your second-place base stealer with five on the season, you’ve got issues. Given everything that Kurt was talking about in terms of our ability to get runners home, putting some more speed into the lineup is a collateral benefit.2
I don’t think that Will Rhymes is a long-term solution at 2B for the Tigers. I do think he’s the best of some iffy options right now, and that Raburn should be in right field.
1 – Yes, I know UZR has sample-size issues. Suggestions for alternative defensive stat options that play better with bench/platoon/margin players are welcomed.
2 – Plus, while he’s not exactly a speed merchant, Raburn’s much more of a threat to score from second than Guillen or Ordonez.
He didn't show much speed last year.
0 for 3 in SB attempts. Just because his legs are moving quickly doesn’t mean he’s fast or will be a useful speedster. I agree that he’s the best available option, but I don’t think he should be near the top of the lineup just because he’s stolen a few bags on a minor league team that runs way more often than we do.
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
We're pretty much stuck with small samples with all of them
but that’s all we’ve got. A full season for a regular player is 1,000 innings plus at his position. The Tigers have rotated guys so much at the 2B slot, that no player has logged 600 innings at that position for 2010 and 2011. UZR may give you an inkling of one player in a snap shot, but you have to go to UZR/ 150 if you’re going to compare them. Fangraphs will caution that you need at least a year to make the sample size reliable, but I still think you get an idea where the stats are headed.
Rhymes has 576 innings with a UZR/ 150 of – 2.5. If his defense costs you 2.5 runs over 150 games and he adds a spark offensively, you probably live with that.
Guillen has 587 innings with a UZR/ 150 of – 6.8. Makes Rhymes look better comparatively in the field, and makes the move an overall upgrade if Carlos isn’t hitting.
Raburn has 422 innings with a UZR/ 150 of 17.9. That’s better than his career – 28.3 but is still worst in the league. To me, that’s far too much to give up defensively. If there is anyone at all that can contribute offensively and play average defense, you have to go that direction, even if Raburn is tearing the cover off the ball. Could be worse, though. At third base, RR is a negative 43.8 for his career, over 150 innings at the hot corner also worst in the league (before Sunday’s game). Just not an option, IMO.
Fielding percentage does not even consider range. Suffice it to say that Santiago looks good (second in the league) and Raburn looks bad there (still worst). RZR measures the percentage of balls hit into a player’s zone that are turned into outs. It is the ultimate measure of successfully making outs. I like this stat, but small samples really mess with the numbers because where a ball is hit in the zone is very random. This is also the component of UZR that makes small samples most unreliable. Santiago again does better than average, while Rhymes, Guillen and Raburn are down near the bottom of the heap.
So, to add up the net impact, Raburn goes to the OF, Magglio to the bench, and some combination of Raburn, Boesch, Dirks, and AJax will fill the three slots in the OF on a daily basis. Personally, I would rotate them giving everyone a night off here and there. I’d use Dirks in CF more liberally, like Mayo Smith did with Northrup after Kaline came back from his injury in 1968.
For next season, it all starts with Boesch, IMO. He’s the only one that might be a legit 3 hitter. See if we get first half BB or second half BB down the stretch. If it’s the former, we have our No 3 man, and DD can add a 2B man and a speedy corner OF or even keep BB in one corner and Raburn in the other, with Dirks rotating to give them all a break. Magglio, and Guillen if he returns, should be relegated and given the gold watch at season’s end.
I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!
No idea why there is a line through some text there
I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!
Ya definately...
Especially after that wanna be cute stuff he pulled the other day, flippin the ball over Peralta’s head & costing them sum runs. Not sure if he’s got somethin on Leyland or what, but he’s a Jack of all Trades & Master of none of them at all. When I see him goin in as a “defensive replacement” I cringe, almost like seein Perry or Benoit warming up when they have the lead.
I'm not a Rhymes fanboi like seemingly everyone else here.
But I (sadly) think the best option right now is Raburn in RF and Rhymes at 2B.
I think that is the best solution
at least Rhymes is an actual second baseman.
by Kurt Mensching on Aug 15, 2011 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions
How about...
Raburn/Dirks platoon in right, with Santiago at second base – Santiago’s numbers are pretty nice when he has been in the lineup since the All-Star break.
The Chairman of the Steve Yzerman for President fan club.
by Christopher Horvath on Aug 15, 2011 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions
not sure..
what his problem was this year, but last year after the all star break, when he came up, he was doin farely decent, I thought.
Probably
Will gave us a nice spark last year, and his defense was just about average. Raburn needs to play, but both Maggs and Boesch are doing nothing lately, so just work him into the OF. If not Rhymes, then Worth or Santiago. This situation needs to be addressed once and for all this winter.
I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!
Raburn RF/Rymes 2B is not the optimal solution, by any means
Or is it a long term one. But with the players the Tigers have on hand/in the system, it’s the best short term solution.
Raburn isn’t a great defender but he’s better than Ordonez. Rhymes my be a 4A player, but as Kurt said, he is an actual, not playing out of position 2B, which is more than you say about most anyone else on the roster.
Regardless, something has to change. You can’t keep playing a corner OF who is hitting like a pitcher.
I'm owner/editor of The Wayne Fontes Experience a deputy editor at Bless You Boys, host the Bless You Boys Podcast and co-host The Knee Jerks podcast.
I'm afraid that I have to agree with benching Magglio.
We’re on the same trane of thought on Magglio. I was a strong supporter of bringing Ordonez back this past winter. After the second half swoon we saw from Brennan Boesch, and after the inconsistent performance from Ryan Raburn, who hit just .208 through the start of August, 2010, and with two outfield positions up for grabs, the Tigers needed more. Moreover, they needed a No. 3 hitter and giving that job to either Boesch or Raburn would have been a big gamble with a team that should be contending for a division title. Based on his numbers down the stretch in 2009, when he tore the cover off the ball, and based on his numbers before going on the DL in 2010 when he was on a pace to hit .300 with a .378 OBP, 20 HR and 100 RBI, I figured Maggs could fill the No. 3 slot. I was wrong, and so were the Tigers.
The Tigers have seen this act before from Jim Leyland. We saw it in 2008 when he gave Gary Sheffield over 400 AB’s in the 3 slot, hitting just .225 .326 .400 .726. That followed a second half the previous year where Sheff hit .203 .324 .299 .623, all in the three slot. He sucked, but he played. And Sheffield wasn’t even a Tiger legacy, just another failed Dombrowski acquisition, but he had a history with Jim Leyland. We’ve seen this act with Brandon Inge, mister futility at the plate, until DD had to wrest Inge away from the skipper.
As recently as this past July, I argued with fellow Tiger fans to give Magglio a chance. He came out and at least had a respectable .362 OBP for July. Not what you want in a No. 3 hitter, but he got on base better than most of the team did, batting ahead of Cabrera. But it’s just not working. It is patently obvious now that Magglio is hurting the team and he needs to sit. It’s not the first time. In 2009, when Magglio’s wife had cancer, he had an awful first half, hitting .260 with just 2 homers through the beginning of July. He was benched- platooned with Clete Thomas being given the job against RHP’s. Clete was even worse, so Maggs got a second chance, and he caught fire, hitting .375 .438 .540 .978 after the break, albeit without much power. They let an $ 18 million option vest, and I would argue that move forced DD to let go of Polanco and trade Granderson (though that’s another story).
At this point, I would not release Magglio, but I’d sit him down at least against RHP’s. Put Andy Dirks or Brennan Boesch in right field. Put Raburn in left field. If Magglio catches fire again hitting against lefties, then expand his role. I wouldn’t hold my breath, though. Continuing to play Magglio is hurting the team. Continuing to bat him third every day is sheer madness. Time to find out whether Boesch can be our No. 3 hitter next year. Magglio and Carlos will need to be replaced. If Boesch is not the replacement for Magglio in the 3 slot, we need to find that out- this year.
I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!
Oh, Samson
Bench him until his hair grows back — it was the source of his strength!
Agree
And the point of him not seeing many pitches is one of the most frustating things about his decline. His penchant for swinging at (and popping up) first pitches of his at bats is maddening.
Casper Wells Andy Dirks should get all his AB’s.
"i think it will be mostly feast the rest of the year,"
Kurt - I laughed when I read...
I just put together a “changes that must be made” to win the AL Central FanPost, while you posted this article. You stole my thunder on the first point! I obviously fully agree with you on Ordonez – let me know your thoughts on my other 4 points… and feel free to use in follow-up articles as I think this is only one of five changes that must be made.
The Chairman of the Steve Yzerman for President fan club.
by Christopher Horvath on Aug 15, 2011 12:48 PM EDT reply actions
Raburn
I feel like I should never be reading “start Raburn” no matter what.
then you're not looking at stats
since the all-star break—
.321 average, 357 on-base percentage, .509 slugging.
you don’t want that player starting?
by Kurt Mensching on Aug 15, 2011 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Never start first half Raburn.
Start second half Raburn where you can and don’t cry that he makes so many mistakes in the field.
I have a grand idea: let's win a game.
Disagree
You don’t just totally bench a proven hitter like Magglio. At 37, he’s obviously not the guy who is going to give you +900 OPS anymore, but he’s been above 800 for the last several years.
This season…I don’t think you can call it over by any stretch. He did hit .294 in July, he did have an OPS over 700 in June and July. Now he is scuffling, no doubt. However, the alternatives on the bench aren’t better, especially with Guillen out.
If you think you’re talking about Raburn – you’re not. He already plays most days, especially with Guillen out. You’re talking about more time for Rhymes, Santiago, or Dirks. Those guys aren’t hitting anything close to Magglio.
He shouldn’t be hitting 3rd…on that we can agree, but he also shouldn’t be benched entirely. His track record is too good. Anyway, a bigger lineup issue is Jackson hitting first.
Here’s a lineup I’d like to see.
1. Avila (only cabrera has a better OBP)
2. Ordonez
3. Cabrera
4. Martinez
5. Peralta
6. Boesch
7. Raburn
8. Betemit
9. Jackson
If you want to swap Raburn or Boesch or even Betemit (against RH pitchers) into the 2 hole instead of Ordonez until he breaks his slump…fine. But long-term, Magglio commands respect and attention and he should remain in a decent spot in the lineup.
That said...
one argument in favor of benching magglio is that the lineup spot in front of Cabrera is a prime opportunity that should not be wasted. We’ve seen it give a lift to Boesch and others.
Until Magglio starts hitting again (and he will), you could do worse than giving those strikes to a guy like Boesch.
This is the Raburn decision all over again (from a few months back)
Too much focus on limited 2011 stats. If a guy has a track record, theres reason to think he can repeat what he’s done.
Magglio
I agree on Magglio but I feel that this will not happen because as I said in another post that Jim keeps doing the same things over and over and expects different results. If his hand is not forced I think he will continue to run Magglio out there. It appears that Jim is more concerned with his loyalty to these players than he is winning. I can understand his loyalty to the players and that is a good thing to a point but when it affects the rest of the team and their ability to win it is counterproductive. Jim, must get over his bullheaded approach to the lineup and put the team on the field that can win ballgames, if he is not careful Chicago and Cleveland will fly by us. My only desire for this team is to win and if he has to ruffle some feathers to win he had better do it.
Agreed
Magglio has been pretty pathetic this year. Its clear his ankle hasnt fully healed. Raburn in the outfield scares me, but without Wells, do we have any better option? At the very least, I wish Leyland would switch Brennan and Magglio in the lineup.
On the bright side, the bullpen seems to be coming around. If we can sort out the offensive/injury problems, then I really like Detroit’s chances to win this division.
Lock Jacob Turner up until 2012
Line-up Analysis
Over at Basball Musings I used their line-up analyzer which takes OBP and SLUG and makes you the ebst and worst line-ups and what the current line-up would do, here’s what I got (Note: I used Rhymes AAA numbers)
http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py?Player0=Austin+Jackson&OBA0=0.309&Slug0=0.357&Player1=Brennan+Boesch&OBA1=0.342&Slug1=0.467&Player2=Magglio+Ordonez&OBA2=0.280&Slug2=0.295&Player3=Miguel+Cabrera&OBA3=0.423&Slug3=0.555&Player4=Victor+Martinez&OBA4=0.374&Slug4=0.484&Player5=Jhonny+Peralta&OBA5=0.354&Slug5=0.501&Player6=Alex+Avila&OBA6=0.380&Slug6=0.489&Player7=Wilson+Betemit&OBA7=0.349&Slug7=0.428&Player8=Will+Rhymes&OBA8=0.372&Slug8=0.395&Model=0
As soon as Leyland reads this
…and don’t you worry, he will read this…you can expect to see Miguel Cabrera hitting leadoff.
Jim Leyland is not a man who will set aside an extra 0.4 runs per game if that’s what an unproven algorithm based on a few months of statistics tells him to be the case.
I wouldn't hit Miggy leadoff
But I do think these say something. Move up Avila and Peralta becuase the Tigers worst line-ups ae with Peralta hitting last and that syas something, especailly if he’s hitting sventh on a rgular basis.
I wouldn't do it exactly like the results
but you don’t need al algorithm to tell you that getting more at-bats to your best batters is going to help the team.
by Kurt Mensching on Aug 15, 2011 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree
which is why Jackson shouldn’t hit 1st if he’s going to hit like Ramon Santiago.
AJax has his own streaks, also
I don’t like any of the lead off options. But Jackson had OBP’s of .327 in May, .355 in June, and .333 in July. The league average is .323 for a lead off hitter, and .the median is about .322. If you put a guy with any significant power in that slot, his power is basically wasted unless the rest of your lineup is stacked. This month and in April, it’s been a problem. JL stuck with AJax and a .252 OBP in April, and he can be stubborn that way. .200 OBP for August isn’t getting the job done.
I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!
disagree about
a leadoff hitters power being ‘wasted’
Even if he hits a 1st inning HR with no one on, you still put the SP on his heels.
Can Betemit play second?
He aint too great at third anyway. IMO Bring up Inge at third or maybe Brandon can play second?( I am ducking as I hit post, not to get hit by flying objects)
"There's no crying in baseball"
Inge and Ordonez
should both start against left-handers. Betemit and Guillen should rest those days.
Betemit's splits change
when you look at his three year splits vs just his 2011 splits. Over three seasons, he’s just about the same vs LHP and RHP, even a bit better batting right. Better than Inge. Brandbino is a defensive replacement, if anything, at this point.
I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!
It's true
that you can make a case for Betemit over Inge, but I prefer to long-run comparison because of sample size relevance. Betemit’s been weak against LH hitters and has been sheltered to some degree. Meanwhile, Inge, if he’s going to do anything, is going to do it against LH pitching.
In other words…if you’re going to play Inge EVER (and it seems that the Tigers are), Why not shelter him a bit and put him in a position where he might succeed?
It’s not like losing Betemit’s bat against LH pitching is a big drawback.
I am guessing that Leyland will agree with you
defensive replacement, platoon against LHP’s. Next spring? We’ll see. Betemit is a Type B free agent, so we could get a comp pick for him if he walks.
I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!
One thing that always helps Magglio
is a runner on first base, with the first baseman holding the runner. Of course, that helps a lot of hitters, but Maggs (and Polanco) in particular are able to shoot the gap on the right side fairly consistently.
I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!
Looks like you might be right
Delmon Young may be Magglio’s replacement
Raburn, Carlos and Magglio
Times up. Time to retire. Raburn is not a everyday player, would be better off on bench of a National League team. “Make it so.” Capt. Picard
tuscanred
I'm late to the show
but great call Kurt. It’s as if DD’s red phone rang after Mike Illich read this post.
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