Fixing the Tigers' batting order
by Kurt Mensching on Aug 16, 2011 12:49 PM EDT
in Detroit Tigers Analysis
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PrintI almost feel like I'm trolling my own site here. But I know people hate Jim Leyland's lineups -- myself included -- and I know people want to discuss Jim Leyland's lineups, so I provide you a space to get it out of your system here. I'll start.
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*#$#&!!!!!!!!!! @#$@#!!!!!!!! ******!!!!!! %%%%%%!!!!!!!!!!!!!
OK. Frustration vented. Time for construction.
The first thing I want to note is that there's no No. 1 "use it all season" lineup out there. People might not want to hear it, but rigidity is not your friend. Maybe you want to find someone who can field the ball when your contact pitchers Doug Fister and Rick Porcello are on the mound. Maybe you've got a player who hits well against a righthander but not a lefthander.
That said, I think we could improve upon the Tigers' batting order a bit by moving a few folks around. I share today a radical proposal:
1. Johnny Peralta (R) -- On the face, he doesn't really profile as a leadoff batter. But unlike Austin Jackson, he makes contact frequently, doesn't strike out a lot, and actually gets on base (.350 OBP). He's a weak baserunner compared to Austin Jackson, but I'm not going to complain about a bit of station-to-station running when there are several quality batters behind him. You can't run the bases if you strike out.
2. Alex Avila (L) -- In many ways, Avila profiles as a leadoff batter. He gets on base (.384), takes pitches (4.01 P/PA, 2nd most among regulars). In addition to being a second chance to get Cabrera a baserunner, Avila has a fair amount of power, giving him the opportunity to drive in the leadoff batter no matter what base the runner is on.
3. Miguel Cabrera (R) -- Jim Leyland wants him fourth because he expects the first three batters to get on the bases. Then Leyland puts a couple of guys who can't get on base ahead of him. Makes no sense. In theory, your best batter should bat first to get the most plate appearances. I think that's taking it a bit to the extreme. I like him to bat third so that you have a good chance of having baserunners, and he gets more plate appearances per season.
4. Victor Martinez (S) -- Martinez behind Cabrera has worked all season. Why change now? Shifting him up a spot allows the Tigers to get him a few more plate appearances. As he's the best one at driving home runs, and the top three guys are good at getting on base, this allows Martinez even more opportunities.
5. Brennan Boesch (L) -- I thought about having Boesch bat higher in the order, but I think fifth is a decent spot. One reason I don't have him higher is that he likes to chase too many pitches. Another is the lefty-righty combination of the order. But fifht is still nice. He's good at driving runners in, but not exceptional. If Martinez doesn't get the runners home, you still have a good shot with Boesch.
6. Ryan Raburn (R) -- I guess you could actually argue for second-half Raburn to bat higher in the order. But even then the second-half OBP of .344 isn't wonderful. He's kind of like Delmon Young anyway, but with more power.
7. Delmon Young (R) -- Young, too, is good at driving in runs. He is slightly less good about getting on base, however. At least, in the first half of the season. (363 OBP in the second half!) So I like him lower in the batting order. But if he and Raburn keep batting like they have in recent weeks, the bottom of the Tigers' order is far from a respite for the pitcher.
8. Wilson Betemit (S) -- Betemit is actually a pretty decent batter against right-handers. You could use that to justify batting him a bit higher in the order. But looking at the Tigers 1-5, I prefer to keep Betemit in the lower third of the order. At least with his batting average he gives the top of the order a chance to drive in some runs if Jackson strikes out behind him.
9. Austin Jackson (R) -- While the black hole of strikeout possibilities in the bottom of the order might scare you a bit, at least they're getting fewer plate appearances than they would at the top of the order. Besides, Jackson's going to make the pitcher work a bit. If he does get on base, this is almost like making him a leadoff man, right?
Notes: When you need defense or want to put some extra pressure on against right-handed pitchers, insert Ramon Santiago at second in place of Raburn, and Andy Dirks in the outfield in place of Young. (Young's splits make him the best platoon candidate in the outfield.) When the rosters expand, Danny Worth should be called up and see playing time in the infield as well on certain days as well.
Thoughts: I'm sure your lineups and justifications won't look exactly like mine. But I want everyone to get them out of their system today. Share, share, share!
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I've wanted Cabrera at #3 for ever
It makes no sense having him 4… He’s the best hitter on the team, get him a 1st inning AB.
When ever Mike Ditka boards an aircraft the aircraft changes it's call sign to Bear Force One.
by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on Aug 16, 2011 12:51 PM EDT reply actions
This
Put that little bit of extra pressure on opposing pitchers right out of the gate—knowing they’ll have to face Cabrera in the first inning under any circumstances.
by KJ@theonlycolors on Aug 16, 2011 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Derp
3rd is ideal for a teams best hitter-possibly to have runners on at the gate and statistically gets more ABs than the 4 slot
God ain't got no use for a 180 lb bag of sugar.
Not really.
It’s more likely that the 3 hitter will see the most ABs with 2 out and nobody on than anyone else in the lineup.
Exactly.
Cleanup is great for Cabrera, who has superior on-base ability and power. If nobody in the first inning gets on base, he leads off the 2nd inning and there’s a 40+% chance that he sets the table. If somebody does get on base in the 1st inning, wonderful. Now the best power hitter on the team can go drive him in.
by thepartybird on Aug 16, 2011 7:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Apparenly, the Tigers took your advice with Magglio
So I can imagine someone in management printing this out for Jim Leyland to read ( a hard copy because the Tigers manager is a tech Luddite), with a post-it attached saying “JL, Take a look, this guy is on to something, DD”
I'm owner/editor of The Wayne Fontes Experience a deputy editor at Bless You Boys, host the Bless You Boys Podcast and co-host The Knee Jerks podcast.
This will add 3/10 of a win over the last quarter of the season
(Can we be snarky in a line up post?)
You know I'm right about this.
by HighOPS on Aug 16, 2011 1:03 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Your point is taken.
However, the changes could very well make the difference in a game or two down the stretch.
In a tight division race it really bothers me that a game or two could be frittered away because the manager is stubborn and not very good with numbers.
depends if tigerdog is feeling his wild oats today
i’ll say 45
by Kurt Mensching on Aug 16, 2011 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions
I think you will get a lot more hits on this topic
but not so many from my corner. I have a real dilemma with the lineup now with DY. I would not put Raburn in the infield, unless there is a dire need for an “offensive replacement” during a game. That leaves two of Raburn, AJax, Dirks, Boesch, and Young on the bench. I agree that there is no one set lineup, and not even one lineup for lefties an another for righties. I think you have to mix it up. They’re all going to get days off because we have an abundance of outfielders.
There is a trade off when you put a player with decent OBP and a bit of pop in one of those first two slots. Peralta has some good OBP this year, but that is not his history. On the other hand, he is unique in that he pretty consistently increases his average with RISP. He must make an adjustment in his approach in RISP situations, such as not swinging for the fences. Betemit would be a candidate to move up to the top, as would Raburn. I would like to see if Boesch is the real deal to bat third. If he is anything like his first half numbers from 2010 or 2011, i’d put him there. If not, I think DD has to go shopping.
I have stuck with AJax at lead off all season, as has Leyland. Just not many alternatives. I’d give Dirks some games in CF when AJax is slumping, and he’d be fine leading off then. After AJax slumped in April, sticking with him paid off as he increased his OBP in May and was all over the bases in June. In August, he’s a detriment to the team there. You have to be ready to make adjustments- more than Leyland does, I think, but much less than fickle fans would do, which would amount to a daily panic over something that didn’t work out in the last game.
I don’t want to bench Raburn. I think I give him much more credit as an outfielder, and a good hitter when he heats up than most others do. But Boesch is legitimately better against LHP’s and should not be platooned. Give BB every chance to be the RF and the No. 3 hitter, and I guess just be happy for the depth in the OF.
If pushed to name a lineup, I’d go with Ajax CF, Betemit 3B, Boesch RF, Cabrera 1B, V Mart DH, Peralta SS, Young LF, Avila C, and Santiago 2B. I’d find a way to recall Rhymes, though, and he could also lead off or hit second if he’s getting himself on base. I like what he brings when he gets on. A move should be made by month’s end to call up a position player and send down a reliever, just to set the right balance for the playoff roster. After Aug 31st, the playoff roster can only be adjusted pitcher for pitcher and pos player for pos player. With one SP not going to be starting in the post season (I hope), that leaves an extra pitcher. Enter Will Rhymes, exit Dan Schlereth.
All this being said, it still boils down to Rick and Max, and avoiding the soft underbelly that is middle relief.
I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!
I'll take the over
HUGE discussion topic, I think. By the way, I like your thinking, though I think if you leave Betemit before Jackson, WB’s OBP goes in the tank as he starts getting pitched very carefully. Not walked (almost an impossibility), but no juicy strikes to hit, either.
I like your lineup.
Leylands use of the top 3rd of his lineup has always been a perplexing one to me. Maybe I’m just a bit too logical but having a guy in the lineup who strikes out as much Jackson be your leadoff guy is weird.
Lineups are hard for me to figure out. The top 5 are pretty simple, at least in my mind. But those last four spots, it’s a bit difficult to figure out who goes where.
K's don't much matter at leadoff
An out is an out. The only time K’s matter is when you have runners on 2nd/3rd and putting the ball in play might help them. Leadoff is actually a good spot for a guy that makes most of his outs via the strikeout.
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
Understood point...
but when you have guys on your team who get on base at a better rate then Jackson does, it makes more sense in my mind to maximize their AB’s. I guess I coulda clarified myself better.
Right
I agree: Get the OBP guys in front of Cabrera I’m just saying that K’s aren’t a reason to move Jackson down (but his low OBP is).
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
There seems to be a fascination with speedy CF'ers in the lead off spot
Nice to have speed, if the guy will use it. I always thought that Granderson did not use his speed nearly enough. At one point, he was 20 for 20 in stolen bases. To me, that was an indication that he was not trying often enough. JL said “he has the green light”, but it seems that JL never just SENDS the runner unless it’s a hit n run situation. Anyway, I think speed on the bases is useful, but not an essential ingredient for a lead off hitter.
Then, there was the JL rant at Tigerfest this past January where he decried “on base, on base, on base” and followed with “I like the guys that knock em in”. He was on the topic of Peralta and how he has a knack for driving in runs, and the value that brings to the lineup. He referred to Jhonny’s raw RBI numbers, never mind the fact that he led the team if not the league in PA with RISP. I still figured that, at a minimum, JL has to value OBP in the top two spots in the order. That seems really obvious, like gospel. Now, I’m not so sure. Nor am I convinced that DD sees this as an issue that needs to be addressed in the off season. In past off seasons, he hasn’t really done much with that issue, other than getting Damon.
I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!
Maybe a K doesn't matter much
But making contact does. A batter with AJax’s speed could easily leg out some infiled hits where others like Avila would not. Also a batter can always reach base on an error and a speedy runner might somehow force a fielder to rush his throw and miss his spot. This latter won’t show up in the OBP but the runner will still be on base. If he strikes out like Jackson does, there will be no runner at all.
the skip
Sorry Kurt for this. i like what you write, alot. I am just tired of the bashing of the skipper. Most tiger fans seemed to be spoiled here. I have been a fan since 1970. Thru thick and thin. What do you exactly do for a living? Your not a big league skipper. My job is in the public eye and my products get reviewed by the public eye too . Kurt, you could never do a better job than the skip. Thats why he does what he does and you do whatever you do. you both get paid for it. I have second guessed the skip this year, but come on. All of you who slam the skip, think about this. What if we all wrote about how shitty you are at your everday job and how shitty your product is on a daily basis. Here is my lineup. no rayburn ever..he cant field therefore he wont hit.
1.austin jackson
2. brennann (dont call me brandon) spark plug boesch
3.jhonny peralta
4. cabbie
5.victor
6. triple aaa alex avilia
7. delmon young
8.wilson betemit
9. ramon santiago
by amazenhazen2 on Aug 16, 2011 1:18 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
So, let me get this straight
You say that Kurt, and by extension the rest of us, are unqualified to second-guess Leyland’s lineups because he’s not a major league manager.
Then you post your own lineup that differs from Leyland’s lineup?
You’re either a major league manager yourself or you can’t take your own advice.
Maybe I'm missing the point of blogs and news media in general...
but aren’t they around to applaud and criticize?
Nope
Just happy thoughts allowed…unless you’re bashing those that criticize.
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
Seems good
But this lineup is missing too much Miggy :(
"Goaltending is a normal job, sure. How would you like it in your job if every time you made a small mistake, a red light went on over your desk and 15,000 people stood up and yelled at you."
-Jacques Plante
by DetroitSports on Aug 16, 2011 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions
As Price would say.....WOW!
Where do I start? Ok, first off exactly what are we TIger fans spoiled by? This team hasn’t won a division title since 1987 and have one playoff appearance in those 24 years. Wow! Second, I have you beat. I have been a fan since 1967 although I fail to see what that has to do with anything as far as “the skip” goes. Wow! Third, stop confusing what JL does with brain surgery or rocket science. I think it’s reasonable to say that almost everyone who posts here would have a much easier time doing “the skip’s” job than a brain surgeon. Wow! Last but not least don’t worry about “the skip” he is over-paid handsomely for what he does. All managers are asked about their lineups and decisions almost daily. Few act like spoiled brats the way “the skip” does. I think “the skip” is what I will do with your posts in the future.
by dabirdin76 on Aug 16, 2011 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
"can't field therefore he won't hit"
By this logic if one cannot spell the names of players properly, one’s comment shouldn’t be taken seriously
"I'm a simple man. I like pretty, dark-haired women and breakfast food" - Ron Swanson
by rock n rye on Aug 16, 2011 2:01 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
"Kurt isn't worthy of criticizing the skipper because he never played baseball...."
“…. but I AM! Here’s my lineup!”
Why
(other than “OMG you can’t bat a catcher first!”) not bat Avila first and Peralta second? Avila’s got a higher OBP and there’s really no substantive power differential between the two.
On days when Avila rests,1 bat Betemit leadoff against RHP (.374 career OBP against them) and consider Young against LHP (.342 career OBP against them). Peralta’s career splits against RHP/LHP are .361/.326.
1 – This’ll happen eventually, right?
my memory might be failing me
But I’m pretty sure Leyland had Pudge leadoff a few times during his days here. So batting Avila lead-off wouldn’t be unprecedented.
"I'm a simple man. I like pretty, dark-haired women and breakfast food" - Ron Swanson
by rock n rye on Aug 16, 2011 1:58 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
the way I see it
Avila has a better shot at driving Peralta in than the other way around. Either way both come up in the first inning and get a lot of plate appearances. my first version of the lineup did have Avila first until I swapped them.
by Kurt Mensching on Aug 16, 2011 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Jason Kendell used to bat leadoff
Yeah yeah, he’s been on teams that closely resemble burning garbage barges, but a catcher in the leadoff spot is not unheard of.
I hate Jonathon Ericsson.
i like your lineup
makes sense. esp having jackson towards the bottom. then maybe he stays fresher for the outfield? maybe get like 6 more inches on that vertical leap, ami right?
Very superstitious
While there consensus that Jackson should not be batting leadoff, unfortunately we’re all just tiltiing at windmills. I believe some combination of superstition and stubbornness will keep him there.
No matter what OBP says, the number that matters most here to the Leyland is wins, and in spite of our misgivings with the lineup, the team is in first place. I’m not saying it’s right. If they drop 9 out of 10 and Cleveland and Chicago pass us, then maybe we’d see a change.
In addition, as long as it took to drop Magglio in the order, I suspect there’s a vague sense that shuffling the lineup at all would “send some guys the wrong message” or “cause them to press.” The fear is that it would look like the panic move that Tigerdog to which Tigerdog is alluding.
"You spend a good piece of your life gripping a baseball, and in the end it was the other way around..." Jim Bouton
To feed my frustration; here's how I would make the lineup
Boesch
Avilla
Cabrera
Vmart
Peralta
Young
Raburn
Betemit
Jackson
Of course, this is just with the every day guys in the lineup, and could be moved a bit to accommodate role players in a game or two, but I can’t imagine a lineup boasting what the tigers have isn’t putting up ridiculous amounts of runs…poor management of lineup positions costs us runs every game
God ain't got no use for a 180 lb bag of sugar.
Like the idea of moving Peralta up in the lineup. Think the bigest failure in the lineup has been in the 2nd spot. Living with Jackson’s shortcommings would be tollerable if the follow-on hitter had a better percentage of balls put in play. Think best “regular” for that is Peralta. Follow Peralta with best run drivers in Boesch, Cabrea, and Martinez. I would then sandwich the Young redemsion project between Martinez and Avila. For the last two I would put the bigger run driver, Rayburn, in the 9th.
1) Jackson CF
2) Peralta SS
3) Boesch LF
4) Cabrera 1B
5) Martinez DH
6) Young RF
7) Avila C
8) Betemit 3B
9) Rayburn 2B
Post discarded
/spellingcheckonRABURN
God ain't got no use for a 180 lb bag of sugar.
He can call him the skip
As long as he is one of the guys the votes 100% in the conference poll, he is O.K with me.
"But the point is, finger-pointing is just what sports fans do when something doesn't go right." -- Kurt Mensching
by RealityIsOptionable on Aug 16, 2011 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions
*confidence poll
"But the point is, finger-pointing is just what sports fans do when something doesn't go right." -- Kurt Mensching
by RealityIsOptionable on Aug 16, 2011 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Good stuff Kurt, Nice job
Pretty much every one in this community likes your suggestion and a few adjustments or alterations here and there won’t change the basic points, which I think are:
1. Get a high OBP guy to bat leadoff.
2. Get Miggy to bat 3rd, and
3. Adjust the batting order according to OBP.
The problem is that I don’t really think that Leyland likes it, so get ready to watch Jackson leadoff and Cabrera in the 4 spot for at least 1 more year.
On a side note, Pujols and Adrian Gonzalez bat 3rd in their teams, so having Cabrera bat in that spot would not be a world premiere.
My 2 cents...
1) Santiago 2B
2) Boesch RF
3) Cabrera 1B
4) Martinez DH
5) Peralta SS
6) Avila C
7) Young LF
8) Betemit 3B
9) Jackson CF
sort by wOBA
In the AL, the leadoff batter gets about 300 more PA than even the second batter. And while I might not put Cabrera first (I think his OBA is inflated by intentional walks), he’s certainly in the top three.
By sorting by wOBA, a lineup typically improves between 5 and 15 runs per season, and I think it’s safe to say that Leland’s lineups would improve closer to 15 than to 5. That’s about two to three wins per year, so, like, the difference between having Boesch and Ajax sit out all year due to injury.
Getting on base is by far the most important statistic in baseball, especially when it comes to lineups, and it’s pretty vexing to see Leland consistently give more PAs to guys who will only squander them.
Yeah, sorry
An average of 30 more PA per season; more if the team is better. Which is more than you’d predict if outs were random throughout the order (then it’s about 18 more PA per spot in the lineup).
Some more numbers here: Sherpa’s math. If we go with the Average Offense as a model for the Tigers, Cabrera loses about 55 PAs per year based on his position in the lineup.
Obviously, the numbers get kinda wonky when you’re trying to predict how much that would change the season, but if we go with Runs Created per Plate Appearance and multiply that by the number of extra plate appearances, we get .201 × 54 = about 10. So that’s one or two games per season that batting Cabrera fourth costs the Tigers.
It’s obviously a lot more complicated than that (it’s Ideal RC/PA minus Actual RC/PA, e.g. A-jax actually creates about 7 runs with those extra 54 PAs) which is why the teams average out between five and 15 per season. But still, tight division race. I’d rather have two to three more wins.
No more lurking.
My first post, but I read the threads all the time good stuff. Glad I found Tiger fans who weren’t all Mlive minded. But my terrible attempt at a lineup.
1)Boesch RF (Decent speed, but won’t walk sadly)
2)H ss (Good contact, and good Hit and Run scenario)
3)Avila C (Very good extra base power should spike hitting in front of Miggy)
4)Miggy 1B (I will never call hit Cabby I hate how that has caught on)
5)V-Mart DH(Obvious)
6)DY LF (Pretty good power to drive in Victor/Miggy)
7)Burns 2B (Got to love 2nd half Burns, but when he fell yesterday I had to laugh)
8)Wilson! 3B (It is what it is)
9)Ajax CF (You just can’t sit his glove)
Decent righty, lefty line up that Leyland likes. And I just realized someone already made this exact lineup. But I already typed it all up and I would feel as if I wasted time if I didn’t post it.
Slightly OT: But this report via Yahoo Fantasy Baseball
on one of our own….
• It’s not easy for me to say positive things about Ryan Raburn(notes). His defense makes small children cry, and he gets himself out quite often at the plate (97 strikeouts, 14 walks, and it’s even worse on tape). That all said, Raburn is hitting .310 since the break and he whacked his third second-half homer Monday night, working out of the No. 2 slot. He’s eligible at second base and the outfield, and his career OPS jumps 139 points in the final three months. Maybe there’s something here. He’s available in 72 percent of Yahoo! leagues. Burn, baby, burn
No longer the Founder, President and CEO of the Ryan Raburn Fan Club
I think it's hilarious
That a guy with 300+ ABs who’s eligible at 2B and OF is only on a roster in a quarter of fantasy leagues.
can be very valuable
with the roster flexibility. I had him in most leagues and dropped him… now picked him back up now that he’s getting regular PT again.
No longer the Founder, President and CEO of the Ryan Raburn Fan Club
I like it Kurt.
I wouldn’t change a thing….excpt I would perhaps consider Betemit at leadoff against RHP. Ideally I would like to see both Peralta and Avila in RBI spots, but given the OBP deficiencies at the top I see no other alternative.
Keeping Jackson in the leadoff spot is pure lunacy. He simply cannot hit or get on base consistently. Leyland is simply stuck on the speed element, which is of course useless if you don’t get on base as Kurt said. It’s almost as crazy as having two of your better hitters at he bottom of the order. I could be wrong, but I don’t think Pujols, Griffey, or A-rod stayed at the bottom of the order because they were more comfortable there.
I don’t think switching things up would come off as a panic move either. I think the guys would be happy because they know as well as we do that the current configuration is costing the team runs.
2nd Base Is The Key
I think Kurt hates when I post because I always add that I miss Placido Polanco. Now I put it first! Just think where we would be if DD had dug his finger out and given Polanco a contract.
Anyway, DD is trying. If we lose the division, we can lay the blame in plenty of places, including fielding and lineups. As much as I don’t care for JL, I think he’s doing a decent job with the mish-mash we’ve had this year. (Kurt never thought I’d say that I bet!) I just think 2nd is the key. If we get enough production out of 2nd base, we stand a good chance. If not, well. . .
Oh, and I STILL miss Placido Polanco!
Polonco has a sports hernia and a reoccuring back problem
He’s been rather useless since April.
Interesting topic although a bit overblown
I remembered the article from a while back and is something I have always agreed with. #4 hitter is more important than #3. Also having an optimal line-up actually only gains you about one win per year (I also read somewhere else it can be between 5-15 runs over the course of a season). Definately worth discussing, but maybe a bit over-rated as reason for Jim Leyland criticism. Especially considering he is probably correct to bat Miguel #4.
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by
Leyland and DD seem to stick with their guys a little to long (always have), but I am actually for that approach. I think it really does calm guys down to know that they aren’t playing for their job everytime a bad month comes along. Playing Inge and Magglio so long wasn’t a bad move IMO (Just like relieving them of starting duty after 3 months of struggles each is a good move now). That keeps Avila, Peralta, Jackson et al from feeling like they are out after a 10 game slump. Confidence and comfortablility is very important in baseball and hard to quantify as a stat.
My line-up would be:
Avila C (Could he keep producing at the top? Definately top 3 this year though)
Victor DH (Cabrera gets even better protection by having first and second 1 out)
DY LF
Cabrera 1B
Peralta SS
Boesch RF
Raburn 2B (he better hit)
Jackson CF (he better keep running balls down)
Betemit 3B (still better than Inge)
I would also stick with Magglio in less of a role. Have him playing about 1/2 time as the first sub when Boesch, DY, Victor, or Avila need a rest. I think less playing time may be the best medicine for him now, but he is still capable of getting hits more than the younger guys IMO (2 hits last night).
Cheers guys.
SO WHAT
Sorry, but this changing of the lineup just seems like so much shuffling of the deck chairs on the Titanic.
The Tigers will win or lose based on ONE THING: Can starting pitchers #2-5 FINALLY get their collective stuff together, or is Justin Verlander going to be the only guy the team can count on to pitch reliably (July seems like a long time ago, Kid Rick)?
This may be a slight oversimplification, but if the Tigers have to score 6-8 runs to win a game, I don’t think changing the lineup around is going make a difference in the long run. They’re toast.
by Big Z in Orlando on Aug 16, 2011 4:03 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
so true. SP (besides JV) sucks and sucks bad
anyone under 4.00 era beside JV? If you take fisters seattle era, than yes but not as a tiger. I still dont see why penny runs out there every 5th game. 4.99 era with rick’s 4.98. thats championship quality pitching. hopefully a LHP falls through waivers. replace penny or trade rick
Porcello is still only 23
But Scherzer is the key. He is only 1 year younger than JV. And Scherzer’s problem seems to be the same problem JV had the last few years. The Big Inning. It seems that when a couple guys get on base he starts to try and “throw” instead of “pitch” leading to crooked numbers on the scoreboard. JV used to have the same problem, just not as often as Max.
"It's my first big league win and you can't beat that. I'm kind of elated to tell you the truth. I wanted to continue the streak of our starting pitchers. That's 5-for-5 right there." Justin Verlander
by Verlanderful on Aug 16, 2011 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions
22 will be 23 in December
"It's my first big league win and you can't beat that. I'm kind of elated to tell you the truth. I wanted to continue the streak of our starting pitchers. That's 5-for-5 right there." Justin Verlander
by Verlanderful on Aug 16, 2011 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Dreamland
vs. LH Starter
Jackson CF
Rayburn 2B
Peralta SS
El Bateador 1B
Martinez DH
Boesch RF
Young LF
Avila C
Betemit 3B
vs RH starter
Betemit 3B
Dirks LF
Avila C
El Bateadore 1B
Martinez DH
Peralta SS
Boesch RF
Raburn 2B
Jackson CF
Raburn sucks just as bad defensively vs LH starter and RH starter also hits them about the same thru his career.
"It's my first big league win and you can't beat that. I'm kind of elated to tell you the truth. I wanted to continue the streak of our starting pitchers. That's 5-for-5 right there." Justin Verlander
Vs. LH pitching it's spelled R-a-Y-b-u-r-n-E-4
"It's my first big league win and you can't beat that. I'm kind of elated to tell you the truth. I wanted to continue the streak of our starting pitchers. That's 5-for-5 right there." Justin Verlander
by Verlanderful on Aug 16, 2011 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions
My line up
2b Rhymes
LF Young
RF Boesch
1B Cabrera
DH Martinez
SS Peralta
C Avilla
CF Jackson
3B Betemin
Trade Raburn to National League
tuscanred
speaking of dumb lineups
todays lineup is horrible again. Are the tigers in a pennant race because leyland doesnt think so. why are kelly and santiago both in the lineup tonight? why? betemit/raburn need to be in there tonight. JV doesnt need defensive support as much as ricky or fister. So why not put the best hitters out there. Its no wonder leyland is a sub .500 career manager. This team should be 10-15 games over .500. Shouldve had gibby as our manager.
That moron Leyland, who's:
- World Series champion
- 2x league champion
- 2x NL and 1x AL Manager of the Year
- 5 for 19 career in taking teams to MLB postseason appearances
- 3x minor league champion
- 6 for 11 career in taking teams to minor-league postseason appearances
- 3x minor league Manager of the Year
- #19 on list of all-time wins by MLB managers, #2 among active managers. He’ll probably end up 15th on the all-time list.
I’ll question and complain about his decisions and scratch my head at his lineups as much as the next guy, but give him credit where it’s due.
(Plus, given some of the terrible Pittsburgh teams he was handed, a .497 career winning percentage is nothing to laugh at.)
by johnmoz on Aug 16, 2011 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
You should see the Twins line-up
Thome sits after a 2 HR/5 RBI night. Thanks Ron.
With 4 players hitting .220 or less
JV #3 tonight.
"It's my first big league win and you can't beat that. I'm kind of elated to tell you the truth. I wanted to continue the streak of our starting pitchers. That's 5-for-5 right there." Justin Verlander
by Verlanderful on Aug 16, 2011 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions
2nd – Rhymes
RF – Boesch
1B – Miggy
DH – Victor
C – Avilla
LF – Young
SS – Perralta
CF – Jackson or Dirks
3B – Betemin
My Line-up
CF Lloyd McClendon
2B Ryan Raburn
3B Gene Lamont
C Jim Leyland
P Don Kelly
1B Tom Brookens
LF Dave Dombrowski
RF Mike Illich
SS Rafael Belliard
by Keith-Allen on Aug 16, 2011 5:49 PM EDT reply actions 3 recs
I'd be nervous having Lamont that high in the order...
…you just KNOW he’s going to make outs on the bases in front of the meat of the order.
That rug really tied the room together.
It's a golden rule of mine that the 3B has to bat 3rd,
just like the 2B has to bat 2nd. So when Lamont needs a day off, I just plug Inge into the 3rd spot.
OT---Happy note!
AJ on the DL for the Shitsox. First time in his career. He has a fractured left wrist after he was hit by a pitch from…..wait for it….Bruce Chen
"i think it will be mostly feast the rest of the year,"
Browncosfan posted this as a fanpost, so I'm moving it here
Obviously, there’s no lineup that everyone is going to agree with, but this is, in my opinion, our best option.
Star-divide
1. Austin Jackson CF
2. Brennan Boesch RF
3. Delmon Young LF
4. Miguel Cabrera 1B
5. Victor Martinez DH
6. Jhonny Peralta SS
7. Alex Avila C
8. Wilson Betemit 3B
9. Ramon Santiago 2B
I still like Jackson leading off. I think that he’s maturing as a hitter – he’s doing little things like making the pitcher work more (it seems like all of his at bats recently have gotten to 3-2),moving the runner over, and bunting (sacrifices and base hits). I think he’s going to get going. Even if he doesn’t, his defense in center is amazing. So yeah.
Once Boesch’s thumb heals up all the way, he’s going to be a really good #2 hitter. I think he’ll get a lot of good pitches to hit, and he’s got a really nice arm from the outfield.
It’s too soon to tell how Young is gonna do, but I like his bat, and Raburn’s really gotten me used to bad defense in LF, so if Young is as bad as Twins fans say, it won’t be too different than having Raburn out there. If Young struggles, or needs a day off, you could easily insert Andy Dirks into left field and have Dirks bat 2nd and Boesch move up to 3rd in the batting order.
Cabrera is incredible. Even in what is sort of an off year for him (he said himself he doesn’t feel quite comfortable in the batter’s box) he’s still hitting around .315 with excellent power. Can you imagine if this guy played half his games at the Yankees ballpark like Texeira and A-Rod? Cabby could easily hit 40+ homers a year there.
Getting Martinez is the best move the Tigers have made since they got Cabrera. Imagine what our 4 and 5 hitters would look like if Martinez starting hitting for a little more power!
Peralta has probably been our most consistent hitter all yhear lhong. And his defense at short isn’t spectacular, but he does make all the plays.
Avila doesn’t need any sort of analysis. He’s a beast. That’s all. Can you imagine if Gillette used him in their commercials? I can see it now:
“I’m Alex Avila of the Detroit Tigers, and I have to shave in between innings or I’d end up looking like Brian Wilson by the 3rd inning. There’s no razor I prefer over the Gillette Fusion Pro-Glide. Other razors can’t handle my beard of steel, but Gillette gets the job done!”
Betemit is a pretty darn 3rd Baseman. When he bats from the left side. If you overlook his defense. But all kidding aside, he’s a good hitter. When your team’s 8th batter is as good as Betemit, you’ve got something going right. His defense isn’t great, but the Tiger’s strength this year hasn’t been their defense. I have noticed he doesn’t have a very good eye, and it seems like he’s swinging as hard as he can at every pitch. If he stops striking out on bad pitches, and learns to tone down his swing a little bit, he could be REALLY dangerous.
And last but not least, Santiago. I know there’s some people that don’t like Santiago, but I’m a fan. I don’t know what it is… Maybe I just like short players. (I happen to be a pretty big Dirks fan and Rhymes fan too). Santiago obviously plays better defense at 2nd that any of our other options, and I like the way he handles the bat. He isn’t going to hit much higher than .250 or so, but he does have that “sneaky power” as Rod Allen calls it, and he’s the best bunter on the team. He also has some decent speed. Raburn COULD also play 2nd, but unless he hits about .400 with 10 or more homers in the second half, I don’t think he should play much.
With this lineup, the Tiger’s 2-8 hitters all have averages that hover around .300 with good power, and some guys with speed that can both handle the bat at the top and bottom.
I also think that Duane Below should start in place of Brad Penny. Penny is clearly struggling, and if we’re not sacrificing too much in the bullpen, I think Below should get another shot at starting.
Oh, and Daniel Schlereth needs to get his stuff together.
This looks pretty good
I’d be hesitant to have DY hitting third, though. No doubt when he’s on a hot streak, he can hit anywhere, but .269 .309 .369 .678 isn’t a 3 hitter to me with Miggy on deck. Maybe he’ll get happy in DET like Jhonny did and take off. I guess we’ll find out how DY does in the 3 slot.
I’d also be about ready to pull the plug on Penny. Opponents are hitting .352 off him since the break in five starts. He seems to be leaving with four runs on the board after six innings most starts. I suppose Below is the best option, since Oliver isn’t exactly earning another promotion. Only thing with Duane is that JL has to let him pitch and avoid the pen if he’s doing well. Maybe DD isn’t done shopping and he’ll pick up another waiver wire starter. Schlereth needs to get his stuff together in Toledo, IMO.
I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!
I apoligize
It seems I have been reprimanded for by remarks about Raburn. If I offended any of you I apoligize and I will refrain from commenting on the blog. I won’t however apologize for the way I feel about Raburn.
Apologize
I apologize for my speeling errors to
AJax just got on base 4 times in 5 AB's
Seems like the top of the line-up pretty much fixed itself, for one game at least.
My Choice For The Lineup
1-Betemit, Play him everyday.
2-Boesch, He hits better just in front of Cabera.
3-Cabera, I have been saying he should bat third for a long time.
4-Martinez, always right behind Cabera.
5-Peralta, I just like him here.
6-Avila, again I like him here.
7-Santiago, Keep Raburn out of this lineup.
8-Young, Only if Cabera bats third. If Cabera bats fourth, then Young moves to third & everyone else moves down one slot. I feel he will really produce batting in front of Cabera.
9-Jackson, a second lead off batter, he just can’t get on base enough to lead off.
A Couple Of Links To Look At
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BAL/BAL196610021.shtml
What a finish for this next link. Game 162 & both teams were tied for first place. The Tigers tied for second place this season, 1 game out of first,.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS196710010.shtml
But what do both links have in common, other than a Triple Crown Player in each lineup?
What do both links have in common?
1. They’re both Baseball_reference links
2. The Twinkies lost both games in the box scores to the AL Champs on the last day of the season
3. Each winner won the pennant on the last day of the season
I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!
Both Yaz & Robinson, Triple Crown Winners
Batted third in thier teams lineup. This is the spot Cabera should be in.
by TigersFan1957 on Aug 17, 2011 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions
You’re Probably Right, Cabera Shouldn’t Bat Third.
by TigersFan1957 on Aug 17, 2011 11:29 PM EDT up reply actions
OOP's-----You're Probably Right, Cabera Shouldn't Bat Third.
Cabrera
Long Day yesterday & today.
by TigersFan1957 on Aug 17, 2011 11:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Thought provoking Post
Many thoughtful posts on Tigers lineup, it would be good if some could actually be put into use, but they won’t because Jim Leyland makes up the lineup and he won’t be swayed by anyone on his lineups in fact he doesn’t even want to discuss his lineups. I have a problem with Raburn and his ability to catch a baseball and I can’t even see anything good about him unless he wins a game for us. I am sure he is not as bad as I think he is and not as good as some others think he is but, he is playing Major League and making a lot more money than the rest of us. I guess the only choice we really have wait until the season is over and then we can see what kind of a team we had in 2011
Cabrera
even in our sub-optimal lineup, hits in better situations at 4 than he does at 3. Compare probably the two best hitters in the league Miggy and The Bautista, one hits 4, the other 3. In terms of situational hitting Miguel comes up in better situations than Bautista across the board. Bautista hits with 2 outs 38% of the time, to Miggys 36%. Bautista hits with runners on 47% of the time to Miggys 50%. Bautista hits with 0 outs only 28% of the time compared to Miggy at 36%. This last one is huge, Miggy has something like a .420 OBP, the dude gets on base, it is a lot more valuable if he does that with no outs than 1 or 2. In sum Miggy hits with runners on more often because he hits 4th and when there aren’t runners on it is more likely that there will be no outs because he is hitting 4th. The only reason to move Cabby up in the order is to get him more at-bats, a valid goal, but in that case why not move him to 2 and get 100 more at-bats than the 4 spot. The metrics actually say that the 2 spot comes up in important situations at a higher rate than the 3rd and more often too.
by rif23 on Aug 17, 2011 1:17 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
My Lineup
1- Avila C- Can’t argue with that OBP. Great patience and great hitter.
2- Boesch RF- He thrives batting in front of Cabrera because pitchers will throw him strikes and he isnt the most patient hitter
3- Cabrera 1B- Best hitter should bat 3rd.
4- Martinez DH- Great protection for Cabrera like he has been all year, just moved up a slot
5- Young LF- Many people will probably disagree with this but he seems to be returning to his form of last year, when he was one of the best at driving in runs in the majors. He would get plenty of opportunities behind Cabrera and Martinez
6- Peralta SS- Hitting over 300 this year. Would be a top 5 hitter in an average lineup.
7-Betemit 3B- Has done nothing but hit since he got here. Would like to see Kelly or Inge play some when the rosters expand though, ecspecially when Fister and Porcello pitch.
8- Raburn 2B- Seems to be picking it up in the 2nd half. However Santiago needs to be in the game when Porcello and/or Fister pitch.
9- Jackson CF- Has an obvious benefit to the team, but it is not in the batters box. Limit his ABs and keep him fresh to play in the field.
Whew! This is the Blog I've been looking for!!!
Easily the biggest complaint I have about Leland. His first 3 have been horrible this season—often being Jackson, Rhymes/Raburn, and Ordonez for a combined BA of less than 0.220.
1. Boesch (LF)—Decent speed (as far as Tigers go) and very good average.
2. Martinez (DH)—best contact hitter on the team should bat 2nd for hit-and-runs with the help of a gap in the right side when a runner is on 1st.
3. Avila ©—Very good OBP. With 4 triples and 3 out of 4 SBs, he has displayed very good (Tiger) speed.
4. Cabrerra (1B)—The hitter with the best OPS should bat 4th; it’s been that way for a century.
5. Peralta (SS)—What Cabrerra doesn’t hit in, Peralta will.
6. Bettimet (3B)—A reliable hitter who can keep the meat of the order/inning alive.
7. Young (RF)—A reliable hitter who can keep the meat of the order/inning alive.
8. Rhymes/Santiago (2B)—more reliable and more range in the in-field than Raburn.
9. Jackson (CF)—fastest guy on the team; right here in front of the heart of the order.
AUGUST:
Who’s Hot:
Dirk’s
Bettimet
Avila
Martinez
Cabrerra
Who’s Not:
Ordonez
Jackson
Guillen
Boesch
Kelly
Santiago (until his recent HRs)
I must note…all of these lineups posted here are better than Lelands!
Bettimet - Why is he not playing?
Does Jim Leyland hate this guy? Once again he is not in the starting lineup, instead it will be Kelly. He is batting .330 since becoming a Tiger and he not an everyday ballplayer? Why in the hell did we trade for this guy and not use him? Also, Leyland has been quoted as saying, “that Bettimet will be sharing duties with Kelly and Brandon Inge when he come back on Sept 1st.” What am I missing here?
Betemit is getting his fair share of playing time
We’ve had him for about a month and he’s started in 15 games. He’s starting in roughly half the games.
He’s hitting .330 because Leyland is cherry picking the AB’s for him. He’d probably be hitting .250 otherwise.
Betemit is not good on defense. Yesterdays game was a good reminder of that. In the 9th inning he fielded a bunt and made a costly poor throw to 1B.
As for all the line-ups
Every line-up posted has it’s advantages and disadvantages.
Is OBP best when there’s guys already on base or when the bases are empty? Good luck trying to answer that question.
Not many hitters like batting lead off. That 1st at-bat is always the toughest for a hitter. The focus usually isn’t there, and there is always some anxiety that goes with it. 1st inning jitters are real, even for major leagues. A guy who usually bats 7th, 8th, or 9th, might not transition well to the top of the line-up because it might usually take them an inning to get mentally into the game. They might be too amped up at the beginning of a game and need to relax some.
In the 1st inning, the catcher’s mind should be on warming up and getting on the same page with pitcher. If the catcher bats in the 1st inning during a road game, he’ll likely have less time to prepare for his duties behind the plate. That pitcher-catcher synergy can be a delicate one.
Every additional AB also adds wear and tear. Move guys like Avila and VMart up in the line-up, and they’ll feel the brunt of having to run the bases more. So as you add more AB’s to some players, you also add risk of fatigue and injury. Of coarse there are advantages to batting them higher up, and those advantages are well documented.
batting order
I like you order. PLEASE share it with Leyland.
ALso, when are they going to bring “BULL” up to be the hitting coach?
by Go get em TIgers on Aug 20, 2011 10:22 PM EDT reply actions
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