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Around SBN: The Most Dangerous Division in Sports

Tigers hold off Royals, 4-3


Final - 8.5.2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 R
Detroit Tigers 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 4
Kansas City Royals 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 3

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BOX

KEY STAT

Brennan Boesch, 2-for-5, 2 RBI

KEY PLAY(S)

Wilson Betemit walked to lead off the top of the 10th. (Andy Dirks pinch ran). That's key one. Aaron Crow threw a wild pitch, allowing Dirks to advance to second. Brennan Boesch singled, driving in Dirks for the game-winning run.

KEY THOUGHTS

Aftter taking a 3-0 lead into the seventh inning, the Tigers tried to rip defeat out of the jaws of victory, but failed. The game, like a typical Jose Valverde appearance on the mound, had far too much drama but ultimately resulted in a "W" for Detroit. That's win No. 60 on the season. Not too shabby.

But let's admit it. The win is going to be an afterthought for many people. The discussion topic that will come up the most is (yet again) Jim Leyland's management of the pitcher and the bullpen. In this case, Rick Porcello's shutout was blown up in the seventh inning when hit after hit found a way around the Tigers' infield. Not that it's that difficult. But that's what happened. After three of the first four batters singled, Porcello came out of the game. He led 3-1 and left two runners on base. Phil Coke allowed a hit to the only batter he faced, then David Pauley allowed another hit before getting out of the game with a double play. At that point it was 3-3. Porcello could not earn the win and was charged with all three runs.

No big deal right? Pitchers tire. Well ... Porcello's pitch count was just 82 when he left the game. He didn't appear to be tired. He just appeared to be playing the game of baseball with a sub-par infield defense. The reason Porcello was pulled was to get the lefty-lefty matchup. Leyland told the media in his postgame interview:

"It wasn't a tough call for me because you could see they were starting to get a little momentum going. Maybe we could have made a play but those balls were hit pretty hard. You got a guy (Mike Moustakas) up hitting 071 against left handed pitching. ... It just didn't work."

I know people want to get upset with this. Some will. But I find it hard to get too riled up, honestly. If a Tigers batter was hitting 071 against left handers, the opposing manager would probably have done the same. Maybe Porcello would have got out of it. Maybe he would have allowed 3 runs, too. Who knows. But I am not gnashing teeth. Teams have a bullpen for a reason. It just didn't work.

In any case, we don't want to miss two key bullet points. Porcello pitched a great game up until the seventh inning. He struck out seven batters through the first six innings, allowing two walks and three hits. Porcello told Fox Sports Detroit

I felt good, but Skipper wanted to go with Coke and he's the manager. Whatever he says goes.

Porcello also said he thought like he got a little lucky early and the Royals hit balls at people, then he got a little unlucky and they hit the balls where the defense wasn't.

As well, Daniel Schlereth pitched well in the game's final two innings. Schlereth hasn't exactly been great this season, so to allow one walk and no hits was solid.

The final note: The Tigers opened the game with back-to-back triples from Austin Jackson and Brennan Boesch. So that was pretty cool.

Other news:

Texas rallied from a 7-1 deficit to the Indians (on Ubaldo Jimenez's Indians debut) to tie the game at 7-7. It is now in the 10th inning.

Poll
What do you think of Leyland's decision to pull Rick Porcello in the seventh?
Right decision
217 votes
Wrong decision
251 votes
Dont really care.
115 votes

583 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 75 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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Agree with Porcello

All the groundballs that didn’t get through in the first 6 innings made it through in the 7th.

by kjzk13 on Aug 5, 2011 11:49 PM EDT reply actions  

Come on Rangers

Tribe and Rangers into extra innings now too

Don't Panic!

by 42jeff on Aug 5, 2011 11:51 PM EDT reply actions  

pennant races are fun

of course running away with it would be fine by me too.

by Kurt Mensching on Aug 5, 2011 11:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

no frickin way

serves me right for turning it off with 2 outs in the 9th

"I'm a simple man. I like pretty, dark-haired women and breakfast food" - Ron Swanson

by rock n rye on Aug 5, 2011 11:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

Holy Shit Valverde , 2 runs in save situations, 15 in non-save

at a quick glance looks like 2/3 of his innings are in save situations.
Aderaline Junkie !
Can’t pitch without it but give him credit he makes the pitches when he has to.
most of his runs are when we are behind and would have lost anyway.
Safe to say he’s earned his contract, besides the injury last year he has been just about perfect in save situations.

by Raz74 on Aug 6, 2011 12:03 AM EDT reply actions  

Indians finally getting averaged out on those walkoffs

Though I still think they need to give up about 5 more.

by kjzk13 on Aug 6, 2011 12:11 AM EDT up reply actions  

3rd walk off loss this week

"I'm a simple man. I like pretty, dark-haired women and breakfast food" - Ron Swanson

by rock n rye on Aug 6, 2011 12:12 AM EDT up reply actions  

RAAAANGEEEERS!!

even jimenez cant save the tribe

by baffled on Aug 6, 2011 12:10 AM EDT reply actions  

HAMILTON WINS IT!!

by longview on Aug 6, 2011 12:11 AM EDT reply actions  

Welcome to the AL, Ubaldo.

"Some guy told me I should walk with the Lord. I'd rather walk with the bases loaded" Ken Singleton

by NCDee on Aug 6, 2011 12:11 AM EDT reply actions  

Anyone see the phillies-giants fight?

Nothing crazy, but benches did clear. Basically turned into a giant blob of players not really doing anything.

by kjzk13 on Aug 6, 2011 12:14 AM EDT reply actions  

Watch Whiteside

for some reason he was ready to tackle someone (and did) after his pitcher plunked Victorino.

Wait til October...

by NoVaVolt on Aug 6, 2011 12:16 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah

Jumping around like a boxer

by kjzk13 on Aug 6, 2011 12:18 AM EDT up reply actions  

didn't see it

but $5 says Victorino was involved

"I'm a simple man. I like pretty, dark-haired women and breakfast food" - Ron Swanson

by rock n rye on Aug 6, 2011 12:16 AM EDT up reply actions  

We sometimes forget Rick is still really young

and if he’s a few years older he gets left in in that situation to pitch out of it. So I can see that side of it. Still voted wrong decision though.

I think since that Pirates game we really want to see him get a complete game and this looked like it could’ve been it. Oh well, he’ll get there.

Wait til October...

by NoVaVolt on Aug 6, 2011 12:25 AM EDT reply actions  

Lost in this whole Porcello debate

Is that he’s very few innings away from his career high in August. I can’t help but think that this must have been a factor in the decision process, and if it wasn’t, we got some luck for the win today.

by crc33 on Aug 6, 2011 12:26 AM EDT reply actions  

Huh

Not sure where I read he was more around 30 away. Never mind, then.

by crc33 on Aug 6, 2011 1:18 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'm a team player

So I’ll stand behind every decision Leyland makes, even if it doesn’t work. Had Porcello given up a 3 run homer to Moustakas and lost the lead, then everyone would probably be furious and questioning why Porcello wasn’t yanked earlier. Especially since we had Coke ready to pitch to the lefty hitter.

If we want Coke to contribute out of the pen, then we can’t be afraid to use him in perfect LOOGY situations like that. Coke has given up just 1 HR since May 1st.

On a side note , I’m thrilled with Schereth since he came back from Toledo. He looks like a different pitcher. That has nothing to do with the beard being gone either.

by Keith-Allen on Aug 6, 2011 1:46 AM EDT reply actions  

That's no more useful than someone who supports no decisions.

It’s fine to question, try it some time. I don’t like the move because Leyland always relies on the l/r match ups and I am not a fan of that. Questioning the wisdom in being such a zealot of the match ups is fine. Saying “omg leyland always loeses usgaemes” is not.

I have a grand idea: let's win a game.

by 13194013 on Aug 6, 2011 5:06 AM EDT up reply actions  

I done that for many years.

 Buddy Bell and Phil Garner use to drive me nuts. Then I learned that if I watch any manager long enough, such as Bobby Cox or Joe Torre, that they all do the same things that aggravated me. Watching baseball and questioning every move takes much of the enjoyment out of the game and adds frustration. Now I let the manager do his job, sit back, and enjoy. We’re in 1st place right now. I wish everyone could enjoy this ride.

by Keith-Allen on Aug 6, 2011 9:39 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'm with you

not really sure what couch coaching helps a personal mental psyche. If they win, then who the hell are we to question their decisions…even if they lose, I’m still erring on the side of the coaches decision although I will confess I’ve had a few WTF moments with a leyland and co. decision this year, but overall, I think the coaching staff is doing a fine job.

Nothing I love more than first place this time of year.

God ain't got no use for a 180 lb bag of sugar.

by Siggzilla on Aug 6, 2011 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions  

Everyone just likes to couch coach

I’m with Keith-Allen on this one too pretty much.

by JWurm on Aug 6, 2011 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions  

can we be honest for a minute BYB?

we lucked out pretty good with brennan boesch. he’s never going to be a superstar but he is a solid player that came from a bit off the radar.

by patthepat on Aug 6, 2011 2:54 AM EDT reply actions  

i think wells is going to be a similar player for the mariners. he’s never going to be a star, but he can play the field well and i think he’ll put up decent numbers at the plate with a chance to play every day.

i think we might miss him a little bit when maggs is put out to pasture, at least as a stop-gap. i like dirks a lot too, but wells has some more pop in his bat. i am saying all of this as someone who is 100% in favor of the trade for fister and pauley even if we overpaid by a small margin.

by patthepat on Aug 6, 2011 2:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

Boesch>wells

IMO

God ain't got no use for a 180 lb bag of sugar.

by Siggzilla on Aug 6, 2011 9:47 AM EDT up reply actions  

Right now, yes

When Wells has more time in the majors (Boesch is at least a year ahead of him in that respect right now), it might even out more. Boesch has more power at the plate and is probably a better hitter overall, while Casper is a much better fielder. I would have traded Casper before Boesch, FWIW.

by Rob Rogacki on Aug 6, 2011 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

oh no doubt about it

by patthepat on Aug 6, 2011 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

27th Road win...

only 29 all last season…

Dilemma:
Stats say hitter is .071 vs. lefties..
Stats say Pitcher has thrown only 82 pitches..

darn those stats…

by dakine2004 on Aug 6, 2011 5:29 AM EDT reply actions  

I agree with the move

All the signs pointed to it being the correct move, except the pitch count.

They were making good contact, you had a guy that can’t hit lefties coming up, you have a guy that is good against lefties in the pen, and it is a fairly close game. Lefties against Porcello his 313, against Coke 200. If you want to bitch about the bunt the other day being the wrong move because of the book then you need to praise this move because the book would have told you to put in Coke in that situation.

by wilsonm24 on Aug 6, 2011 7:18 AM EDT reply actions  

inconsistent defence

if guillen and miggy had fielded their positions properly we would’nt be having this discussion.

by foo fighters on Aug 6, 2011 9:33 AM EDT reply actions  

I'm happy

These last couple weeks the tigers have really found a way to grind out a couple wins…makes me happy they seem to have a sense of urgency, not that anyone needs reminded what 1 win can do.

Also, schlereth has been stellar since his call up…if this team seriously wants to go to the playoffs then someone needed to step up in the middle relief role. The fact that the bullpen is finally holding games gives me great hope…it was the last piece to the puzzle of winning the central. Cheers! to it continuing.

God ain't got no use for a 180 lb bag of sugar.

by Siggzilla on Aug 6, 2011 9:45 AM EDT reply actions  

I think

We wouldn’t have been so primed to see it as a bad decision from the start (how much grumbling was there even before we saw 0.071 against lefties?) if the background wasn’t taking out Porcello too early (in our opinions) earlier and bringing in a lefty in Coke who was still apparently finding his way back after injury.

Against that background and with hindsight it looks like a bad decision.

Purely logically, it was the right choice. Balls were finding holes, the pitch count wasn’t onerous but Rick had gone deep into the game, August heat saps energy, by taking him out at that point if the bullpen could do their job as intended he would be assured the win, and that is what a bullpen is for anyway. Bring in lefties against batters who stink against lefties, strand inherited runners, and preserve the lead that the starter got for the team with his hard work.

In this case it didn’t work quite that well, but not every correct decision will inevitably lead to the desired result. Even the right choice might not work out as intended.

I agree with the decision, but I wish it had worked as Leyland envisioned it. Oh, well – if Rick keeps pitching like this, he will get other opportunities for wins. :)

Also, very happy to see Schlereth pitch so well for a couple innings. I think he can take a lot of confidence from that kind of a job in a tie game, preserving the score until his teammates could assemble some offense, and getting a win. Good job, kid.

"It is a mistake to try to look too far ahead. The chain of destiny can only be grasped one link at a time." --Sir Winston Churchill (1874 – 1965)

by Baroque on Aug 6, 2011 9:58 AM EDT reply actions  

Getting lost amid all this discussion to pull Porcello

is the fact that Daniel Schlereth was, well, very good. He really came through, and I’ll admit, I thought he would totally blow it. So there’s that. I know it’s way too early to make a big deal out of Schlereth’s performance, but maybe, just maybe, we’ll find a lefty reliever who can get lefties out consistently.

by (The)BallDontLie on Aug 6, 2011 10:10 AM EDT reply actions  

I didn't miss it! :)

"It is a mistake to try to look too far ahead. The chain of destiny can only be grasped one link at a time." --Sir Winston Churchill (1874 – 1965)

by Baroque on Aug 6, 2011 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions  

Didn't realize this until just right now

But we currently have the second biggest lead out of all the division leaders.

by JWurm on Aug 6, 2011 10:13 AM EDT reply actions  

Haven't seen the inning in question yet

But from what it sounds like, I think Leyland made the right move. It’s one thing to go after the lefty-lefty matchup just because that’s what Leyland wants, but when a guy is hitting lefties as proficiently as Adam Dunn, you have to take that matchup. Unfortunately, Coke wasn’t able to do the job (I think he’s still hurt and isn’t letting on about it), but we still got a win.

And it’s funny how fast the fanbase (myself included) changes their opinion on Schlereth now that he’s had a few good outings in a row.

by Rob Rogacki on Aug 6, 2011 10:45 AM EDT reply actions  

The problem with relievers

is their entire career is a small sample size.

by wilsonm24 on Aug 6, 2011 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm still wary of Schlereth.

I’d like to see him not walk everyone but I don’t rule out Schlereth going back to walkcity.

I have a grand idea: let's win a game.

by 13194013 on Aug 6, 2011 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

I would never, ever trust him in a close game.

I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!

by Tigerdog1 on Aug 6, 2011 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

I have heard about (over rating Tiger prospects).

But Boesch and Avila seem to be two pretty good major leaguers for only there second year.I hope we have more over rated players to come.

by swish330 on Aug 6, 2011 1:00 PM EDT reply actions  

Not a fair statement

Avila was underrated because he had a tiny track record (but still got decent marks). Boesch fixed his problems with contact and plate discipline this year.

"Aside from the stuff I haven’t been diagnosed for yet, I don’t have a problem."- Phil Coke

Contributor, Bless You Boys

by David Tokarz on Aug 6, 2011 1:21 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Avila is

Boesch is an above average starter.

None of that changes the fact that the farm system is vastly overrated by fans.

"Aside from the stuff I haven’t been diagnosed for yet, I don’t have a problem."- Phil Coke

Contributor, Bless You Boys

by David Tokarz on Aug 6, 2011 8:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

There are always players that come out of the pack of not so highly rated prospects.

Finding those gems is either a real skill or a lot of luck. But it doesn’t matter whether the guys that you get to fill your roster spots were highly rated after they were drafted or not. However, the percentage of stars that were once blue chip prospects is extremely high. The percentages of a first rounder being an above average MLB player at his position skyrocket compared to lower round picks. That is true in any draft. That’s why hoarding those picks is very important in building a club, and why it pays to let a free agent walk now and then and getting that comp pick.

I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!

by Tigerdog1 on Aug 6, 2011 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

Nicely said

But because a team has so many picks,there are a lot of players that don’t develope untill later.And there seems to be a lot of blue chippers that just don’t pan out.It’s all about what they do at the major league level that counts.

by swish330 on Aug 6, 2011 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

the way to look at it

is go to baseball reference and check out the draft for any given year. Or another site if they have the information sorted so that you can see who has “made it” to the show and who hasn’t. (BR has that). Go back five years so that you’re at least to the point where all the draftees have to be on 40 man rosters or be exposed in the rule 5 draft. Just browse through the list and count the number that have “made it” in the first round and the later rounds. The drop off is huge. Also just pick out names that you know are stars in the majors. The majority are first rounders. MLB clubs operate huge farm systems just for those few that make it from the rest of the pack. They’re definitely significant, but it’s those first round blue chippers that clubs build their futures around.

I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!

by Tigerdog1 on Aug 6, 2011 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

Taking Porcello out was moronic

as advertised, here is Tigerdog’s rant on Leyland’s move.
Ol Smokey thinks about one thing- his coveted lefty on lefty match ups.
It doesn’t matter that his starting pitcher has thrown barely 80 pitches and is mowing em down.
Doesn’t matter that the two runners on base were there because his infield defense sucks. One ball was clearly an error on Betemit, and on the official scorer for not giving him an error. A fifth grader should have made that play hit right at him. The vast majority of 2B men make the play that Guillen let through.
Porcello is a better pitcher than Coke- against lefties or righties. Bad move, and I’m tired of Leyland pulling this crap.
But still, I like Leyland. He gets the most out of his players, IMO, and that’s more important than the moves he makes or doesn’t make during a game. He comes up with screwy lineups from time to time, he overmanages the bullpen, and has little appreciation for guys getting on base in the top two slots. But give us another manager, and there would be other things to complain about. Just win, baby, and he gets to stay. Don’t and he should be gone along with his boss.

I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!

by Tigerdog1 on Aug 6, 2011 1:21 PM EDT reply actions  

Still

Can we get Jim some books on baseball strategy?

"Aside from the stuff I haven’t been diagnosed for yet, I don’t have a problem."- Phil Coke

Contributor, Bless You Boys

by David Tokarz on Aug 6, 2011 1:22 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

NOT THOSE

"Aside from the stuff I haven’t been diagnosed for yet, I don’t have a problem."- Phil Coke

Contributor, Bless You Boys

by David Tokarz on Aug 6, 2011 8:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

What hurts the Tigers, sometimes, is the fact it the team has zero speed.

Austin Jackson excluded, the team is station to station. That has a small affect on some scoring chances.

Also: the defense isn’t what I’d call good. I’d call it okay to not really that good..

I have a grand idea: let's win a game.

by 13194013 on Aug 6, 2011 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

The defense in the infield, or lack thereof, is a real killer on the present roster.

Betemit has been horrible. Bad enough that I would not want to consider him a starter going into next season. He’s fine off the bench as a pinch hitter and stick him in there when the team is losing if you must, but even then, you can get better pinch hitters.

I really, really want to see the Tigers replace Maggs and los Carlos with two speedy, solid defensive, very high OBP type hitters that can bat atop the order. But then, Leyland doesn’t care about “on base, on base, on base”.

I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!

by Tigerdog1 on Aug 6, 2011 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

The stats say

you are clearly wrong about Porcello being better against lefties than Coke. As I said earlier, lefties hit 200 against Coke this year and they hit 313 against Procello. It was a clear situation with the game on the line and it was the absolutely correct move at the time.

Hindsight obviously shows that it didn’t work out, but going by the percentages (which you always seem to talk about except in this case for some reason) it was the right move.

by wilsonm24 on Aug 6, 2011 7:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

On August 5, 2011 at that moment, Porcello was better than Coke

against righties or lefties. Porcello was better last night than he has been on the season, and Coke has been much worse recently than he has been on average for the season. I don’t always go by “percentages” in terms of just using the season stats, by any means. I have been extremely consistent in being opposed to taking out a starting pitcher, when he is still effective and not tiring, for my entire life. It’s one of the things that bugs me the most about Leyland, and will always bother me about his managing style. He over manages his bullpen, IMO. Every time you change pitchers, there is some chance that the guy you bring in will not have his A game and will not do the job that he is assigned to do.

I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!

by Tigerdog1 on Aug 6, 2011 11:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

You really have no basis to say that Porcello is better than COke against lefties

For their careers lefties hit 216 against Coke (which means he has been better against lefties this year than over his career) and 296 against Porcello (which means he is even worse than normal against lefties this year).

I have no problem with you disagreeing with the move, I can see why Leyland pulled him and I can understand the people that wanted to leave him in. The problem I have is the holier than thou approach you have and the inconsistency you have with using stats.

This goes back to your Raburn posts and is a consistency I have seen since then. You refused with Raburn to look at the most recent numbers for his defense at 2B and admit that he is better than his career numbers even though (at the time) his season numbers showed that he was clearly better than his career number stated. Now with this decision you ignore career number, or even season numbers for that matter, and tell me that to hell with the numbers, Porcello is obviously a better pitcher against lefties than Coke. The fact that you have no basis for your argument other than “because I said so” is truly baffling because I know you are smarter than that.

So in this situation, you have a batter than is noticeably worse against lefties (231 against righties and [at the time] .071 against lefties) and a LOOGY warmed up and ready to go in the pen that is clearly better against lefties than the current pitcher in the game, and a young pitcher that had seen his gem of a game start to get blown up and very easily could have been very rattled by it. To me, this is the perfect time to bring in that LOOGY, it is the whole point in having a LOOGY!

Hell, you could have said Moustakas “was due” to get a hit against a lefty and I would have laughed and moved on, but you started spouting false facts about Porcello being better than Coke against lefties and threw all creditability of your argument out the window.

I am just disappointed in this whole thing to be honest with you, I expected better because usually you have some sort of logic to back up your arguments, I may not always agree with your logic but at least it is well thought out and linear. To me you lost a lot of creditability and that is unfortunate because I really due usually enjoy reading your analysis and have always enjoyed the debates we have had.

by wilsonm24 on Aug 7, 2011 9:07 AM EDT up reply actions  

Baseball isn't just stats it's played on the field.

Tiger Dog is right that at that moment Porcello is the better pitcher.

by swish330 on Aug 7, 2011 9:35 AM EDT up reply actions  

Dude, you have completely misconstrued my comments

Let me get this right: You think that because I use statistics to help make a judgment on Ryan Raburn’s infield defense, I am required to use (your) statistics to make a judgment on whether to leave Porcello in the game. Further, if I don’t, it’s “hypocrisy” (your word in the game thread) and my attitude is “holier than thou”? Right, gotcha.

First, I have been consistent my entire life about managers pulling out effective starters because they want to get a particular “matchup” for one or two hitters. If the guy is effective and not tiring, leave him alone. My judgment is that Porcello was doing fine. Three ground balls got through, two of which should have been fielded, and one that to me was clearly an error. No change was needed, and I am not required to resort to season stats, career stats, or any other stats to make that judgment. My comment that Porcello was better than Coke against righties or lefties, as I explained to you a few times now, is based on the decision to be made at that moment, in mid game, with Porcello cruising and Coke struggling recently.

Second, with respect to Raburn, I did not refuse to look at recent statistics for him. Your entire argument was that his entire career UZR/ 150 was completely irrelevant because the sample size was too small. You then started pulling out even smaller sample sizes- miniscule sizes- to dispute the point. I used minor league stats, major league stats, UZR/ 150, RZR and whatever else is available, all the while conceding that we only have small samples in the majors to go by. I have never argued anything “because I said so”, and there is no lack of “logic” on my part. That is your refusal to accept the grounds on which my comments are based, despite explaining it to you ad nauseum. I would certainly hope that Raburn is better than his career numbers defensively, but the numbers are so off the charts awful, that an improvement on those isn’t saying much.

Third, you need to look up the definition of the word “hypocrisy”. If your argument is that my use of statistics is inconsistent, or that my arguments are inconsistent, it’s fair to say so, but hypocrisy is a whole different matter. The use of that term in this context is insulting, uncalled for, and just wrong. I will assume that you did not intend it as such.

I completely disagree with using Phil Coke, given his recent struggles, as a LOOGY, then having to resort to another reliever, and maybe another and another, rather than leaving Porcello in the game. I think that Jim Leyland feels he is “playing the percentages”, but he isn’t. Every new pitcher comes with a chance of implosion, yet he will stubbornly stick to his over managing, taking out effective pitchers, and bringing in pitchers that have been inconsistent or ineffective all season. I like Phil Coke, and I would hope that he can be more than a LOOGY, but right now, I would not bring him in any high leverage situation, at all. I have never argued anything based on someone being “due” nor “because I said so”. Those are your mischaracterizations of my comments.

You don’t have to agree with me on Raburn’s defense. You don’t have to like my use, or non use of statistics in making a particular judgment. But in this case, you are disregarding the logic that I’m using for the basis of the judgment and insisting that if I don’t resort to some statistics, there is no logic in the decision. Porcello was doing fine and should have been left alone, much less being pulled for a pitcher that has been ineffective recently. That’s it- nothing more, and nothing to do with Ryan Raburn.
If you don’t agree with me, then we should just agree to differ, and move on. We have a pennant race to win. Peace.
   

I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!

by Tigerdog1 on Aug 7, 2011 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

If you had something to back up your logic

then I could appreciate it. You keep saying that Porcello was doing fine. The fact is that he had given up three hits to the last four batters, whether you think they were hits or not is irrelevant, which almost doubled the total amount he had given up in the game to that moment. That shows that clearly he wasn’t cruising, if he was cruising we wouldn’t be having this conversation.

My use of the word hypocrisy is valid in this case, as you profess the use of statistics for the reason Raburn shouldn’t be in the infield as well as why it was incorrect to bunt in a certain situation and think that everyone else should use them to come to the same conclusion, and yet in this instance you ignore all statistics (at least you have yet to show us any) and again expect us to come to the same conclusion as you do.

I think that Jim Leyland feels he is "playing the percentages", but he isn’t.

Prove it. What percentages is he ignoring that show his move was the wrong one?

Every new pitcher comes with a chance of implosion, yet he will stubbornly stick to his over managing, taking out effective pitchers,

Again, prove it. Every pitcher has a chance at an implosion, not just new pitchers. An effective pitcher doesn’t give up three hits to four batters, that is a pitcher on the ropes, in a close game, in the middle of a pennant race.

I have never argued anything based on someone being "due" nor "because I said so". Those are your mischaracterizations of my comments.

Well, I have been asking for you to provide some sort of proof to back-up your claims that it was the wrong move and you have yet to provide any. How else is one to characterize your comments if you can’t provide proof to back them up?

I used minor league stats, major league stats, UZR/ 150, RZR and whatever else is available, all the while conceding that we only have small samples in the majors to go by.

And yet in this case when season stats, career stats and minor league stats are presented to you they are ignored or dismissed because “recently” he hasn’t been good. Why is it alright to use Cokes recent stats and not Raburn’s at the time? We come back to that hypocrisy word again…

by wilsonm24 on Aug 7, 2011 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

I've given you the logic repeatedly, ad nauseum,

but you refuse to accept it. Whatever. And your use of the word “hypocrisy” in this context is conclusive proof that you do not know the meaning of the word. You can argue with yourself from here on. I’m done.

I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!

by Tigerdog1 on Aug 7, 2011 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

The book and Leyland...

Problem with Leyland is he tries to play percentages and go by “the book”, but doesn’t seem to really understand what makes either statistically relevant and when.

By his logic, we would be platooning Boesch against only left handers after he trotted out a .233 AVE against RHP last year.

47 AB’s against LHP in the bigs isn’t relevant. What is relevant is a pitcher on the mound who is rolling and would be out of the inning already had it not been for subpar fielding. What is relevant is a LHP who couldn’t get an armless batter out at this point being placed in the highest leveraged position of the game…

Jim’s book is not written in permanent ink and really is just his nebulous excuse for his whims and instincts.

by ejallstar on Aug 6, 2011 1:24 PM EDT reply actions  

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