The Case for Miguel for MVP
I think it's safe to say (Verlander arguments excluded) that the MVP race is down to 4 players. Jose Bautista, Adrian Gonzalez, Jacoby Ellsbury and our very own Miggy Cabrera.
I would argue that Miguel is the best of the bunch. Here is the analysis:
Player Avg RISP Man on 3rd with >2 outs OPS HR RBI RUNS 2B 3B SB K GDP Errors Team Wins Total
Miguel Cabrera 333 397 529 998 26 97 102 43 0 2 -87 -24 -10 87 - 2493
Jacob Elsbury 320 370 500 923 27 94 109 42 5 36 -90 -6 0 86 - 2416
Adrian Gonzalez 340 339 500 965 26 110 103 43 3 1 -107 -25 -3 86 - 2381
Jose Bautista 304 248 423 1072 42 100 101 23 2 8 -102 -8 -6 75 - 2282
This is a very crude formula obviously but I think it works. Basically I'm adding positive stats and subtracting strikeouts, DPs and errors. You could make the case for Ellsbury because he's clearly a better all around player (36 sb and zero errors on the season), but you can't argue with the consistent offensive juggernaut that is Cabrera.
Thoughts?
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Bless You Boys writing staff.
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One of the problems is
that runs and RBI have just as much to do with the people that bat in front of and behind you as the player themselves.
Depending on your thoughts on how team performance should affect MVP voting, and assuming the JV isn’t the most obvious choice (he is), then Jose Bautista is the best pure offensive force in baseball this year and should probably win.
If you feel that only players that are on contenders should win then it would probably fall to Elsbury and/or Granderson over Miggy. Their all around game is much better (even though they probably aren’t nearly as feared as Miggy) than Miggy’s this year.
I think Avila is a stronger candidate than Miggy.
He leads all catchers with a 5.5 WAR, and also has Chuck Norris beaten in almost every physical/toughness challenge on record.
by Boeschlander on Sep 15, 2011 4:17 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Yeah
I go with Avila because he’s a catcher hitting like a solid first baseman.
"Aside from the stuff I haven’t been diagnosed for yet, I don’t have a problem."- Phil Coke
Contributor, Bless You Boys
by David Tokarz on Sep 15, 2011 9:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Interesting
I would say that Cabrera is the better player, and I would probably draft him over AA if I was starting a team tomorrow…HOWEVA…no player on the Tigers has been more valuable to the team this year
by davewilliamt on Sep 16, 2011 9:39 AM EDT up reply actions
than AA
sorry last fragment made no sense
by davewilliamt on Sep 16, 2011 9:39 AM EDT up reply actions
Well if AA has been the most valuable player on the tigers
why would you consider Miggy as the MVP (most valuable player) over him right now? The award isn’t MTP (Most Talented Player).
think you did not get my post
never said miggy was the MVP, I said Miggy has the most talent
AA has been the most valuable tiger this year, playing very good D at a premium position and generating top notch offense
sorry for the confusion
by davewilliamt on Sep 16, 2011 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm glad that someone is making a case for cabrera
I think he’s too overlooked in light of Verlander’s accomplishments.
But Avila’s the one I’d love to see win.
I don't think he is an MVP this year
but I feel like Miggy has gotten to the point that we are so used to his ridiculous level of production that he is almost underrated
key stat
I think the key stat when comparing Cabrera to Bautista is RISP. For all Bautista’s gaudy stats, his only hits .248 in that situation.
I excluded Granderson due to his declining batting average. I may be wrong, but I don’t know any MVPs who finished sub .270.
As for Avila, yes the guy is a stud a definitely deserves votes.
Any variation in RISP from overall batting average is mainly luck
First of all, it’s batting average.
Secondly, “scoring position” is a misnomer.
Third, there is no real reason for a hitter to have a higher average with a runner on second and/ or third base than in other situations.
Finally, a grand slam counts the same as an infield single that moves a runner from second to third, scoring nobody. A sac fly or a key BB, or moving the runner mean nothing.
If RISP isn’t the most overrated, most useless statistic in baseball, then it’s pretty high up on the list, IMO.
I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!
Saves are the most overrated, most useless statistic in baseball
*ducks
"Aside from the stuff I haven’t been diagnosed for yet, I don’t have a problem."- Phil Coke
Contributor, Bless You Boys
by David Tokarz on Sep 19, 2011 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions
It will be a really interesting vote
I don’t think Miguel should win it because he’s not the most valuable guy on his own team. However, I do feel that his offensive numbers are just as good as the guys that have more HR and RBI, considering his OBP and AVG.
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
I think Verlander should be able to win it.
Granderson was the front runner, imo, but he has REALLY fallen. If Bautista was a yankee, it would be his for sure. No player other than those guys have insane stats.
Cabrera will win an MVP.....just not this year
It’s interesting that Boston, and Detroit all have TWO viable candidates. That’s why I’m thinking that Granderson and Bautista are still in the hunt. There are a few questions to answer before the MVP can be decided. A lot depends on what happens with the Rays / Red Sox series this weekend. If Gonzalez and Ellsbury end up burying the Rays they come to the head of the class. If the Red Sox fall out of the wild card so do their MVP candidates. I don’t think Curtis will win if his batting average is sub .270, If he can get to .280 – .290 he wins. If Verlander wins 25 – I think he will get it, unless Cabrera continues hot streak and closes in on batting title. If Miggy can win the batting title I think he has a shot. Bautista only wins if Gonzalez and Ellsbury SPLIT the Boston vote, Verlander fails to get 25 or Cabrera really cools off. Should be fun couple of weeks talking about things like playoff roster and MVP voting.
I’m just glad we are talking about MVP and not worrying about Sox, Indians and Twins.
It will be interesting if the red sox miss the playoffs
So many of the east coasters are saying that Bautista shouldn’t win because his team isn’t in the hunt, if Boston doesn’t make it then their own arguments will work against them for Agon and Elsbury. It won’t matter due to media bias, but it will still be interesting.
Very well put
My thoughts mirror yours, almost to the T
Chicks dig me, because I rarely wear underwear and when I do it's usually something unusual
Current AL Leaders in WAR
J.Bautista TOR 8.4
J.Verlander DET 7.9
J.Ellsbury BOS 7.1
C.Sabathia NYY 6.6
D.Pedroia BOS 6.5
http://www.baseball-reference.com/
Miggy’s current WAR is 6.3 (Offense 7.0 Defense -0.7)
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cabremi01.shtml
IMO his defense hurts his chances for MVP
I'd take Ellsbury or Bautista this year over Miguel.
I think Cabrera got robbed last year, though. And I take Verlander vs. the field this year.
I hate Jonathon Ericsson.
The award is for the Most Vauable Player to his team, not the best overall player
and that is why players on contenders have a huge advantage in MVP voting. A great many voters see “value” in helping the team to win something. A great player on a third or fourth place team simply can not provide that value, and the award is all about being valuable, not being better. The argument is as old as the award.
The idea that a pitcher has a separate award and should not be considered for MVP is just wrong. The criteria specifically includes pitchers and position players, offense and defense. If they want a separate award for offensive players or position players only, then they should hype the Hank Aaron award or come up with another one, but the MVP is for most valuable player, including pitchers.
Next, the notion that a starting pitcher somehow provides less value than an “every day player” doesn’t hold water, IMO. A starting pitcher is typically involved directly in more plays during the course of the season than an “every day” player. The exception is a catcher, who is involved in calling every pitch as well as hitting and fielding.
Finally, a player who is one of several stars on a star studded roster generally has less value to his team than a player who is indispensable to his team’s success. Therefore, my vote goes like this.
1. Verlander
2. Avila
3. Cabrera
4. Granderson
I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!
Sorry. If it isn't Verlander, it's Bautista or Ellsbury.
Cabrera has been his typical amazing hitting self, but plays mediocre defense at a non-premium position. Not to mention that he simply has not hit the ball as well as Bautista this year – even if I think Cabrera is a safer bet for massive production next year and beyond.
And if you disqualify Bautista because he plays on a 4th place team (I personally don’t like that argument, but I know a lot of voters traditionally do), you can go ahead and replace him with Granderson, who has also been better this year than Cabrera.
I still think that Cabrera is the most talented player of the bunch. While all three of the other players are having career years that they probably won’t replicate, Cabrera is just having a typical season for him.
Agreed in just about every respect
As a huge baseball fan, it seems like I should be able to make up my mind about the whole “winning team / MVP” issue, but I can’t. Some days, I think the guy should be on a playoff team, other days, I don’t.
Regardless, I think it’s down to Verlander, Granderson, and Bautista. If any of those three win, justice has been served.
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
The big question for Verlander
is whether those MVP voters that choose one of the “every day players” as their top pick, are so fundamentally opposed to having a pitcher win the MVP award that they don’t give JV consideration at all, or whether they’ll slot him in their No. 2 or 3 slot on the ballot. I think it’s a wide open race this season between all of the aforementioned players. No single player might get a majority of the first place votes, which means that how far down the ballot a player is slotted will be the deciding factor in who wins.
Some voters favor every day players. Some voters love the OPS stat. Some are stuck on the triple crown numbers. Some can’t get past the “but for” test and will DQ any player on a team that’s not in the playoffs. Some devalue a mere slugger and give points to an Ellsbury because he plays defense as well. But how strong these criteria are doesn’t necessarily translate into second, third, and fourth place votes. There may be a contingent of the “every day” crowd that won’t rank JV in their top five at all, or a contingent that won’t rank Bautista in the top five. Miggy moves up on those ballots, but JV could top more ballots than any other player and still not get the award. It’s complicated, and it’s wide open.
I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!

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![Seriously, how can you NOT love Miguel Cabrera?
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