Detroit Tigers Playoff Roster Decisions: Brad Penny
by Kurt Mensching on Sep 20, 2011 12:56 PM EDT
in Detroit Tigers Analysis
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PrintWe kicked this off with 22 likely "locks" on the Tigers' playoff roster yesterday. (Honestly, I think you could go with 23, but that would cut down on the number of posts I could milk this for so I won't.)This series will continue throughout the week. I'll begin with tonight's starting pitcher.
If you polled Tigers fans -- actually, MLive's Chris Iott did -- I'm pretty sure between 95% and 100% of them would say to leave Brad Penny off the playoff roster. But I don't know if the decision is quite so easy on the team.
I wrote about Penny two weeks ago, noting:
Penny has had a few problems lately but it's unlikely he's dramatically different than the pitcher you've seen all year.
I wrote that after a couple of bad starts in a row. For the month of September, his ERA is 5.06, setting in about midway between his June and July and almost exactly on his 2011 ERA of 5.07. There are some red flags, notably a strikeout-to-walk ratio that fell under 1 for the first time this year. It sits at 0.86. So far this month he has given up both the worst on-base percentage and worst slugging average of his 2011 season as well. However, his ground ball percentage did rebound to 50%, so the right defenders behind him could help.
By the way, after struggling in August, Rick Porcello has an ERA in in the mid-3s again in September. Suffice it to say, it doesn't take a long look at either Penny or Porcello's stats to know that Porcello should get the final rotation spot. He's just better, small sample or large.
That leaves us the same question I had before: Can Penny perform in the bullpen? We still don't know. Even if he can, is he a better choice than Duane Below, Ryan Perry, or some other wild card like Luis Marte?
Reasons Penny could make the roster:
- Veteran with playoff experience
- Started the whole year for the Tigers
- Mop-up in case of a disaster start
Reason's Penny might not make the roster:
- No room in the rotation, not a lot of experience in the bullpen
- Not having a real great season either
- Shows sign of attrition after having prior season end in May
- Not as left-handed as Below, nor as strikeout-y as Perry.
I don't see a spot for him on the playoff roster, but I still have to admit I'd be surprised if the Tigers don't find a way to take him.
What say you?
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Not so sure that
Brad Penny is the best long relief option as his first few innings per game lately have shown the worst results. Below seems like the logical choice despite lack of playoff experience.
No Way
He has been a mediocre at best 5th starter. We don’t need such players in a playoff series. If we need someone for long relief then we are in trouble anyway in that game. Below has shown himself to be a decent long relief guy and Perry can give us a couple of innings also.
Mel
135 votes but only 3 comments? is that average for one of the polls ?
Brad Penny is not my first choice for a roster spot but the guy HAS won 10 games and chewed up a ton of innings as a Tiger. Below will get his shot next year. My guess is Leyland takes Brad Penny…..and he should.
"final rotation spot"
I take it that it’s a given, then, there will be a four-man rotation in the playoffs? There are some days off in there, such that if you gave the starters three days off between starts you could have Verlander – Fister – Scherzer – Verlander – Fister in the ALDS, giving you four games with excellent starters and one with a good starter. With four days of rest, you get Verlander – Fister -Scherzer – Porcello – Verlander, for three games with excellent starters, one with a good starter and one ehhhhhhhhhhh. That is not nearly as intimidating to other teams, but I don’t think the Tigers would be willing to risk the three man rotation.
playoff roster
Perry and Inge should be left off the roster!
I don't like him, but I think he should be on the roster
and definitely deserves to be on the roster. I won’t argue though, if he doesn’t make it.
He’s ate 172 innings so far this year, that alone is makes him more valuable than any relief pitcher we have. He earned his $3 Million a year contract and deserves a bonus since we made the play-offs.
So 172 non-quality innings are > 70 Quality innings?
I appreciate what Brad Penny has done this year. He is exactly what we signed, a 5th starter, and he has put up numbers equal to that (if maybe a little worse lately). He hasn’t done anything to “deserve” a spot on the playoff roster, other than show up for work every 5th day (these “less” valuable bullpen guys BTW have to show up for work every day…).
There is no room for a 5th starter on the playoff roster, and we have guys in the bullpen who’s job it is to be in the bullpen that are more suited to the roll. Sorry Brad but wait for your ring in the mail.
I think he will.
Of the few bright spots this year I could think of with Brad Penny starting:
3 May vs NYY – 6 IP, 10 H, 0 ER, 6 K, W
14 May vs KC – 8 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 2 K, W
26 Jun vs ARI – 7 IP, 6.2 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 2 K, ND
If he starts at all, he will be at home. Hits allowed is far too high to be starting in one of them East Coast hellholes (NYS, Fenway)..
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