Do the Tigers know about Fangraphs?
I think it's a good question, because you at least get a visual representation of what you're getting out of your starters, and specifically, why some of them have been so up and down this year.
Max Scherzer is one that I can't quite figure out. Of course we at BYB know that, due to the fact that he has two nicknames: "Blue Eye" for a good performance, and "Brown Eye" for a bad one. Unfortunately for us, the gap between blue eye and brown eye is so wide that it's no wonder that Scherzer's starts have gone from one extreme to the other. It's been very evident against left-handed hitters this season.
This fangraph was taken from Scherzer's start in May, against the Yankees. Here we see an example of what Max can give us when he's feeling right. The release point for all three of pitches is pretty consistent.
Now Bad Max...this was from his start in interleague against the Giants, a game in which he allowed 9 R in 2 IP. As you can see, it's like he can't find a good rhythm and his pitches end up all over the place, sliders especially.
Now more good : )
Against lefties, where Scherzer has had most of his struggles this year, we see that many fastballs are left up in the strike zone, yet the Yankee batters couldn't quite get around on it. While it may be concerning to us that most pitchers can't get away with making these types of pitches, he stays away from the middle of the plate here. The changeup away looks good; the graph shows he's putting in a spot where he can't get hurt (if there ever was one for a Yankee hitter).
When Scherzer missed with his fastball against San Francisco, he REALLY missed as we can see by the many high or low outside green dots. And when Scherzer needed a strike, he grooved the fastball right into the barrel of a Giants' bat, or floated a changeup that went over the heart of the plate. The one slider he threw was the second major league home run for Brandon Crawford.
I'm all for hoping the best out of Max Scherzer in the playoffs, but with this kind of inconsistency, can we really trust him to pitch a good game against a left-handed loaded lineup, be it New York or Boston? I say yes, but ONLY at Comerica Park. The dimensions at NYS really scare me if Scherzer got the ball on the road, because who knows what eye he is seeing out of?
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Bless You Boys writing staff.
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DpmRelease point varies
with good or bad starts. It varies between throwing from the windup vs stretch.
Scherzer has said it’s mostly about about arm slot.
I hate it when I accidentally hit "enter" instead "shift".
I wasn’t even close to finishing that post.
Now I'm talking in jibberish
I’ll quit now.
Better quesion:
Does Fangraphs know about the Tigers?
+1
They occasionally talk about us, but a lot of the times they’re hit pieces (or at least it feels like it). Some of their stuff is good though- the Fister piece for instance.
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
Contributor, Bless You Boys
by David Tokarz on Sep 20, 2011 10:22 PM EDT up reply actions
The guy who writes the Power Rankings every week consistently says something blatantly wrong about the Tigers.
It’s almost like they can’t be bothered to do research about any teams other than their favorites and the YankSox.
by thepartybird on Sep 21, 2011 5:17 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree
although I would say the Fister piece was written mostly because Cameron is a big Mariners fan
I like Dave Cameron
Some of their other writers though…
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
Contributor, Bless You Boys
by David Tokarz on Sep 21, 2011 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions
BTW
This is why I’m letting my Baseball Prospectus subscription lapse. After Chris Kahrl left, the only reason for me to stay is Kevin Goldstein. But I’d rather try to find a discount on ESPN Insider or spend my free cash on BA.
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
Contributor, Bless You Boys
by David Tokarz on Sep 21, 2011 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions
I didn't mean to imply
that I dislike Dave Cameron, quite the contrary. I never really got into Baseball Prospectus, just never clicked with me enough to get me to open my wallet. Fangraphs has much less entertainment value for me since Grantland decided to absorb all that was Jonah Keri. I should just read Grantland, but I can’t support anything that headlines Bill Simmons, I just hate him too much.
Fair enough
I was really just commenting that I was pretty fond of Cameron and RJ Anderson (he did D-Rays Bay stuff I think). But some of the rest suck.
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
Contributor, Bless You Boys
by David Tokarz on Sep 21, 2011 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions
i'm not real fond or unfond of any of them
but their website is A+ in my book.
by Kurt Mensching on Sep 21, 2011 8:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Go-to place for stats
But some of their analysis is meh.
"You, on the other hand, make Eeyore look like Rainbow Brite." -johnmoz
Contributor, Bless You Boys
by David Tokarz on Sep 21, 2011 11:54 PM EDT up reply actions
definitely a good site.
I have my minor squabbles with some of their stuff (mostly with their pitchf/x) but that hardly detracts from their plethora of information.
It's also about getting on top of the ball with Max
He throws from a 3/4 arm slot, and he has a nasty habit of bringing his fingers down around the outside of the ball, especially on his slider. When he does that, he loses control and can hang things right out over the middle of the plate. When he stays on top of the ball, he’s fine. Mad Max is dominant and he locates the ball very well up, down, in and out. Bad Max hangs em and is prone to giving up the gopher ball more than almost any other pitcher in the league.
I don't care what the Chinese say, 2011 is the Year of the Tiger!
As much as I agree that his release point is something he should be working on primarily...
I wish he would either throw the slider to lefties or develop another pitch (he seems more like a cutter guy than a sinker guy or curveball guy) because a lefty getting around 3 ABs a game against a pitcher who only throws fastball-change is going to have a ton of success in later at-bats if that changeup isn’t elite (hint: it really isn’t elite). His struggles against lefties make perfect sense in this light.
I know that the slider is traditionally believed to not be as effective against opposite-handed batters, but that never stopped Randy Johnson from brutalizing righties with the slider for two decades. Scherzer’s slider obviously isn’t Big Unit Good, but it’s definitely a plus pitch and it would be nice if he at least mixed it in more than once or twice a game against the lefties. Maybe a backdoor slider in deep counts against a walkmonger like Swisher?
I wish I understood Fangraphs and what they mean to the Tigers chances
Have no clue how the hell to use Fangraphs but they are pretty to look at and I know someone puts a lot of time in creating them.
If you haven't seen this, it is a good starting point.
http://www.fangraphs.com/library/
Tom Tango’s (and two other authors whose names I forget) “The Book: Playing the Percentages of Baseball” is a nice primer on much of the thinking employed by the Fangraphs site, and I believe it was the source of wOBA, but I cant remember since it has been a few years ago now that I read it.
As per my Fargraph’s readership I enjoy a few of their writers but don’t read it nearly as much as I used to. Mostly I just look at the various stats you can’t find together in any other place.
Another thing to note based off Pitchf/x charts...
is that Max’s change-up and slider are breaking a bit earlier than last year.
It’s hard to use Pitchf/x to judge Max. His mechanics are so…bad…that it’s expected to see changes and have groupings that you’d expect to find normally not show with Max. The season data for Max isn’t much different for him this year than it was for him last year. I’m pretty sure I said this before in some article or long comment I’ve written before on him, but a guy with Max’s mechanics can only be a roller coaster starter at best, which is something we’ve seen from him in both his seasons.
You did a good job in pointing out that his release suggests that he has trouble finding a rhythm. That boils down to all the extra things he has himself do while pitching. Sometimes he hits all his checkpoints through his mechanics and throws a gem. Other times he decides to miss the left turn at Albuquerque (spelled that right first time!) and throw a total dud. It’s all his mechanics, and his are a total hinderence.
Now I’m not trying to say that Max is a bad pitcher. With Verlander as our one and Fister as our two, Scherzer makes an excellent number 3 in my opinion. But you don’t spend a bunch of money on him. And you most certainly wait til you get as much data on him as possible before deciding how much you should spend.

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